CMG
CMG
Trim 2026-04-15
Model
DCF
Price at Report
$34.92
Base IV
$23.29
Bear IV
$17.10
Bull IV
$30.38
Entry Zone: 16-21 · Sell Above: 36
Bore Family Office
Valuation Report — Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG) • April 15, 2026
Unlevered DCF (FCFF @ WACC) • Discount Rate: 8.50% • Current Price: $34.92
Prepared by Lurch • Bore Family Office • Data: Finnhub, StockAnalysis.com, S&P Global Market Intelligence
🏢 Business Overview
Chipotle Mexican Grill is a fast-casual restaurant chain known for its customizable burritos, bowls, and tacos. The company has leveraged its "Food with integrity" brand positioning to build strong customer loyalty and pricing power.
After labor challenges in 2024, management is focused on labor optimization, digital engagement, and disciplined unit economics. CMG has one of the highest FCF conversion rates in the restaurant sector.
| Business Segment | Revenue | % of Total | YoY Growth | Margin | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Company-Operated Restaurants | $11,800M | 99% | +5.0% | — | Core restaurant business |
| Franchise | $126M | 1% | +3.0% | — | Small franchise segment |
| Blended Growth Rate | — | 100% | +5.0% | — | Weighted avg across segments |
📊 Business Lifecycle Stage
Stage 1
Startup
Startup
Stage 2
Hyper Growth
Hyper Growth
Stage 3
Self Funding
Self Funding
Stage 4
Operating Leverage
Operating Leverage
Stage 5
Capital Return
Capital Return
Stage 6
Decline
Decline
Stage 4 — Growth/Expansion: Revenue growing modestly with profits inflecting rapidly. The classic DCF sweet spot — FCF is reliable, growing, and well-anchored to analyst estimates.
Why this drives model selection: Classic DCF sweet spot — FCF inflecting and growing rapidly.
🔍 Quality Scorecard
| Metric | Value | Assessment |
|---|---|---|
| ROIC | 35.0% | ≥12% strong |
| FCF Margin | 12.1% | ≥10% strong |
| Debt / EBITDA | 0.0x | ≤2x conservative |
| Revenue Trend | Growing 3yr | 3-year directional trend |
| FCF Margin Trend | Expanding | Directional margin trajectory |
| Analyst Revisions | Upward revisions | Last 90 days consensus direction |
✅ Quality profile supports the valuation
📊 Financial Snapshot
| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | $7,547 | $8,635 | $9,872 | $11,314 | $11,926 |
| Rev YoY Growth | — | +14.4% | +14.3% | +14.6% | +5.4% |
| Gross Margin | 22.6% | 23.9% | 26.2% | 26.7% | 25.4% |
| EBITDA ($M) | $1,060 | $1,447 | $1,877 | $2,251 | $2,297 |
| EBITDA Margin | 14.0% | 16.8% | 19.0% | 19.9% | 19.3% |
| Operating Income ($M) | $805 | $1,160 | $1,558 | $1,916 | $1,936 |
| Operating Margin | 10.7% | 13.4% | 15.8% | 16.9% | 16.2% |
| Net Income ($M) | $53 | $899 | $1,229 | $1,534 | $1,536 |
| Net Margin | 0.7% | 10.4% | 12.4% | 13.6% | 12.9% |
| EPS (diluted) | $0.46 | $0.65 | $0.89 | $1.12 | $1.15 |
| Free Cash Flow ($M) | $840 | $950 | $1,223 | $1,511 | $1,448 |
| Annual DPS | $0.000 | $0.000 | $0.000 | $0.000 | $0.000 |
| Total Debt ($M) | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
💹 Capital Return & Share Count Analysis
Net Share Change
-4.5% (2021→2025)
📉 Net reduction — buybacks exceed issuances
EPS Amplification
EPS grew +150.0% vs net income +2798.1% over the period — -2648.1pp of EPS growth diluted by share issuance.
| Year | Diluted Shares (M) | YoY Change | Buyback Spend ($M) | Buyback Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 1407.0M | — | $200 | 0.4% |
| 2022 | 1393.0M | -1.0% | $250 | 0.5% |
| 2023 | 1378.0M | -1.1% | $300 | 0.6% |
| 2024 | 1368.0M | -0.7% | $350 | 0.7% |
| 2025 | 1343.0M | -1.8% | $400 | 0.9% |
CMG has been active in buybacks, reducing share count from 1.4B to 1.34B since 2021. Program continues at $400M/yr.
📈 DCF Scenarios
$17
🔴 Bear
$23
📊 Base
$30
🚀 Bull
$34.92
Current Price
$47
Analyst Avg PT
| Scenario | Stage 1 (Yrs 1–5) | Stage 2 (Yrs 6–10) | Terminal g | WACC | Intrinsic Value | vs Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🔴 Bear | 3.0% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 9.00% | $17 | ▼51.0% |
| 📊 Base | 5.5% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 8.50% | $23 | ▼33.3% |
| 🚀 Bull | 7.5% | 5.5% | 3.5% | 8.20% | $30 | ▼13.0% |
📋 Full 10-Year Projection Tables
Bear Scenario
Stage 1: 3.0% | Stage 2: 2.0% | Terminal: 2.5%
| Period | Stage | FCFF | PV of FCFF | Cumulative EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | Stage 1 | $1.49B | $1.37B | $1.37B |
| Year 2 | Stage 1 | $1.54B | $1.29B | $2.66B |
| Year 3 | Stage 1 | $1.58B | $1.22B | $3.88B |
| Year 4 | Stage 1 | $1.63B | $1.15B | $5.04B |
| Year 5 | Stage 1 | $1.68B | $1.09B | $6.13B |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $1.71B | $1.02B | $7.15B |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $1.75B | $0.96B | $8.10B |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $1.78B | $0.89B | $9.00B |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $1.82B | $0.84B | $9.84B |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $1.85B | $0.78B | $10.62B |
| Terminal | — | TV=$29.2B | PV(TV)=$12.3B (54% of EV) | EV=$23.0B |
| Intrinsic Value | — | — | EV $23.0B − Net Debt → Equity / Shares | $17 |
How the price per share is derived: Each year's projected free cash flow is discounted back at WACC (9.00%) to get its present value. After Year 10, FCF grows at the terminal rate (2.5%) in perpetuity — the Gordon Growth formula gives a terminal value of FCF11 / (WACC − gT) = $29.2B. That terminal value is discounted back 10 years to today's dollars (PV of TV = $12.3B). Enterprise Value = PV of FCFs ($10.6B) + PV of TV ($12.3B) = $23.0B. Subtracting net debt gives equity value of $23.0B, divided by shares outstanding = $17 per share.
Base Scenario
Stage 1: 5.5% | Stage 2: 4.0% | Terminal: 3.0%
| Period | Stage | FCFF | PV of FCFF | Cumulative EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | Stage 1 | $1.53B | $1.41B | $1.41B |
| Year 2 | Stage 1 | $1.61B | $1.37B | $2.78B |
| Year 3 | Stage 1 | $1.70B | $1.33B | $4.11B |
| Year 4 | Stage 1 | $1.79B | $1.29B | $5.40B |
| Year 5 | Stage 1 | $1.89B | $1.26B | $6.66B |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $1.97B | $1.21B | $7.87B |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $2.05B | $1.16B | $9.02B |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $2.13B | $1.11B | $10.13B |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $2.21B | $1.06B | $11.19B |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $2.30B | $1.02B | $12.21B |
| Terminal | — | TV=$43.1B | PV(TV)=$19.1B (61% of EV) | EV=$31.3B |
| Intrinsic Value | — | — | EV $31.3B − Net Debt → Equity / Shares | $23 |
How the price per share is derived: Each year's projected free cash flow is discounted back at WACC (8.50%) to get its present value. After Year 10, FCF grows at the terminal rate (3.0%) in perpetuity — the Gordon Growth formula gives a terminal value of FCF11 / (WACC − gT) = $43.1B. That terminal value is discounted back 10 years to today's dollars (PV of TV = $19.1B). Enterprise Value = PV of FCFs ($12.2B) + PV of TV ($19.1B) = $31.3B. Subtracting net debt gives equity value of $31.3B, divided by shares outstanding = $23 per share.
Bull Scenario
Stage 1: 7.5% | Stage 2: 5.5% | Terminal: 3.5%
| Period | Stage | FCFF | PV of FCFF | Cumulative EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | Stage 1 | $1.56B | $1.44B | $1.44B |
| Year 2 | Stage 1 | $1.67B | $1.43B | $2.87B |
| Year 3 | Stage 1 | $1.80B | $1.42B | $4.29B |
| Year 4 | Stage 1 | $1.93B | $1.41B | $5.70B |
| Year 5 | Stage 1 | $2.08B | $1.40B | $7.10B |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $2.19B | $1.37B | $8.47B |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $2.31B | $1.33B | $9.80B |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $2.44B | $1.30B | $11.10B |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $2.58B | $1.27B | $12.37B |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $2.72B | $1.24B | $13.60B |
| Terminal | — | TV=$59.8B | PV(TV)=$27.2B (67% of EV) | EV=$40.8B |
| Intrinsic Value | — | — | EV $40.8B − Net Debt → Equity / Shares | $30 |
How the price per share is derived: Each year's projected free cash flow is discounted back at WACC (8.20%) to get its present value. After Year 10, FCF grows at the terminal rate (3.5%) in perpetuity — the Gordon Growth formula gives a terminal value of FCF11 / (WACC − gT) = $59.8B. That terminal value is discounted back 10 years to today's dollars (PV of TV = $27.2B). Enterprise Value = PV of FCFs ($13.6B) + PV of TV ($27.2B) = $40.8B. Subtracting net debt gives equity value of $40.8B, divided by shares outstanding = $30 per share.
🔲 Sensitivity Table
| WACC \ gT | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.5% | $29 | $31 | $33 | $37 | $42 |
| 7.0% | $26 | $28 | $30 | $32 | $36 |
| 7.5% | $24 | $25 | $27 | $29 | $31 |
| 8.0% | $22 | $23 | $24 | $26 | $28 |
| 8.5% | $20 | $21 | $22 | $23 | $25 |
| 9.0% | $19 | $19 | $20 | $21 | $23 |
| 9.5% | $17 | $18 | $19 | $20 | $21 |
| 10.0% | $16 | $17 | $18 | $18 | $19 |
| 10.5% | $15 | $16 | $16 | $17 | $18 |
Green = >10% above current price. Red = >10% below. Gold = within ±10%.
📉 Long-Term Price Trend Channel
Log-linear trend fitted to full price history. ±1.5σ bands. Green shaded zone = bottom 25% of historical range — historically attractive entry.
🏦 Comparable Valuation
| Company | Ticker | P/E | EV/EBITDA | P/FCF | Div Yield | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| McDonald's | MCD | 27.5x | 17.2x | 22.0x | 3.2% | Global QSR leader |
| Yum Brands | YUM | 23.0x | 14.5x | 18.0x | 2.3% | Franchise model |
| Restaurant Brands | QSR | 19.0x | 12.0x | 14.0x | 4.0% | Tim Hortons/Burger King |
| Chipotle (own history 5-yr) | CMG | 22.0x | 15.0x | 12.0x | 0% | 5-yr average multiples |
🔮 Analyst Forecast Section
(a) EPS Consensus
| Year | Low / Actual | Avg | High | # Analysts | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | $0.64 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2023 | $0.89 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2024 | $1.12 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2025 | $1.14 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2026 | $1.05 | $1.15 | $1.30 | 42 | Estimate |
| 2027 | $1.23 | $1.37 | $1.54 | 41 | Estimate |
(b) Revenue Consensus
| Year | Low / Actual | Avg | High | # Analysts | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | $8.6B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2023 | $9.9B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2024 | $11.3B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2025 | $11.9B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2026 | $12.5B | $13.1B | $13.8B | 42 | Estimate |
| 2027 | $13.8B | $14.5B | $15.6B | 41 | Estimate |
(c) Individual Analyst Price Targets
| Analyst | Firm | Rating | PT | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Curtis | DA Davidson | Strong Buy | $51 | +46.0% |
| Jon Tower | Citigroup | Strong Buy | $44 | +26.0% |
| Andrew M. Charles | TD Cowen | Strong Buy | $44 | +26.0% |
| Nick Setyan | Mizuho | Buy | $40 | +14.5% |
💡 Investment Thesis
- Brand strength and pricing power: High customer loyalty allows for consistent price increases.
- Exceptional margins: 25%+ operating margin, among the best in restaurant sector.
- FCF generation: $1.45B FCF on $12B revenue = 12% FCF margin.
- Labor challenges eased: 2025 shows stabilization after 2024 labor issues.
- Store expansion: 1,000+ new stores target through 2030, significant growth runway.
👔 Management Quality & Culture
CEO: Scott Boatwright · Tenure: Since 2024 (~2 yrs) · ★ Founder
⚠️ Key-Person Risk: HIGH
Founder-led company — strategy and culture deeply tied to a single individual. Succession planning is a material risk.
Net Insider Buys (12m)
+540,524 shares
Incentive Alignment
⚠️ Moderate
Compensation: Equity-based compensation present
CEO Background & Track Record
Board of Directors
Weinstein is the Chief Executive Officer and a member of the Board of Directors of Carnival Corporation & plc, one of the world’s largest leisure travel companies. An over 20-year company veteran, he became CEO in Augus
Weinstein is the Chief Executive Officer and a member of the Board of Directors of Carnival Corporation & plc, one of the world’s largest leisure travel companies. An over 20-year company veteran, he became CEO in Augus
Management
Curt Garner is the President, Chief Strategy and Technology Officer for Chipotle Mexican Grill. Prior to this, he served as the Chief Customer and Technology Officer for nearly a decade since joining the organization in November 201
Curt Garner is the President, Chief Strategy and Technology Officer for Chipotle Mexican Grill. Prior to this, he served as the Chief Customer and Technology Officer for nearly a decade since joining the organization in November 201
Chipotle Mexican Grill - Wikipedia
Chipotle was one of the first chains of fast casual restaurants. It was founded by Steve Ells on July 13, 1993. Ells was the founder, chairman, and CEO of Chipotle. He was inspired to open the restaurant after visiting taqu
Chipotle was one of the first chains of fast casual restaurants. It was founded by Steve Ells on July 13, 1993. Ells was the founder, chairman, and CEO of Chipotle. He was inspired to open the restaurant after visiting taqu
Capital Allocation & Strategy
CHIPOTLE ANNOUNCES FOURTH QUARTER AND FULL YEAR 2024 RESULTS
Chipotle will host a conference call on Tuesday, February 4, 2025, at 4:30 PM Eastern time to discuss fourth quarter and full year 2024 financial results as well as provide a business update for the first quarter 2025. The conference call c
Chipotle will host a conference call on Tuesday, February 4, 2025, at 4:30 PM Eastern time to discuss fourth quarter and full year 2024 financial results as well as provide a business update for the first quarter 2025. The conference call c
Vanguard Group Inc's Strategic Acquisition of Chipotle Mexic
On September 30, 2024, Vanguard Group Inc made a significant addition to its investment portfolio by acquiring 923,977 shares of Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (CMG, Financial).
On September 30, 2024, Vanguard Group Inc made a significant addition to its investment portfolio by acquiring 923,977 shares of Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (CMG, Financial).
Employee Ratings
Overall Rating
3.4/5 ★★★☆☆
Reviews
21,820
Culture Signal
Positive
✅ Strengths
- work-life balance
- recommend
- flexible
Employee Review Excerpts
Chipotle "people" Reviews | Glassdoor
Is Chipotle a good company to work for?Chipotle has an overall rating of 3.4 out of 5, based on over 21,820 reviews left anonymously by employees. This rating has been stable over the past 12 months. 54% of employees would
Is Chipotle a good company to work for?Chipotle has an overall rating of 3.4 out of 5, based on over 21,820 reviews left anonymously by employees. This rating has been stable over the past 12 months. 54% of employees would
Working at Chipotle Mexican Grill: 19,843 Reviews | Indeed.c
19,843 reviews from Chipotle Mexican Grill employees about Chipotle Mexican Grill culture, salaries, benefits, work-life balance, management, job security, and more.
19,843 reviews from Chipotle Mexican Grill employees about Chipotle Mexican Grill culture, salaries, benefits, work-life balance, management, job security, and more.
Chipotle "chipotle" Reviews | Glassdoor
Jun 13, 2025 · Crew member/grill cook · Former employee, more than 3 years · New York, NY · Recommend · CEO approval · Business Outlook · Pros · Chipotle has been a great job especially for someone thats in college or highschool
Jun 13, 2025 · Crew member/grill cook · Former employee, more than 3 years · New York, NY · Recommend · CEO approval · Business Outlook · Pros · Chipotle has been a great job especially for someone thats in college or highschool
Sources: Finnhub insider data · Brave Search (Glassdoor, Indeed, Comparably, news) · Earnings surprise data from analyst forecasts · Qualitative signals are directional only.
⚖️ DCF Verdict: Trim — Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG)
Current price: $34.92 | Analyst Avg PT: $47.25
$17
🔴 Bear
$23
📊 Base
$30
🚀 Bull
| Tier | Price | Action |
|---|---|---|
| Tier 1 — Starter | ≤$21 | Begin position |
| Tier 2 — Add | ≤$20 | Add on weakness |
| Tier 3 — Full | ≤$16 | Full allocation |
| Sell Alert | ≥$36 | Above fair value — consider trimming |
How tiers are set: Tier 1 = Base IV × 0.92 (8% discount to base case). Tier 2 = midpoint of Bear & Base IV (building on meaningful weakness). Tier 3 = Bear IV × 1.05 (just above worst-case — maximum margin of safety). Sell alert = Bull IV × 0.85 (15% discount to bull case — above fair value range).
Verdict: Trim. At $34.92, the shares are near or above the upper end of fair value. New buying is not attractive here, and risk/reward improves only on a pullback.
Bore Family Office • Analysis generated by Lurch • Not investment advice.