CNS
CNS
Accumulate 2026-03-20
Model
DDM
Price at Report
$63.08
Base IV
$70.32
Bear IV
$47.35
Bull IV
$91.14
Entry Zone: 50-65 · Sell Above: 77
Bore Family Office
Valuation Report — Cohen & Steers, Inc. (CNS) • March 20, 2026
3-Stage DDM (Ke) • Discount Rate: 7.80% • Current Price: $63.08
Prepared by Lurch • Bore Family Office • Data: Finnhub, StockAnalysis.com, S&P Global Market Intelligence
🏢 Business Overview
Cohen & Steers is the leading specialist asset manager focused exclusively on real assets — listed real estate (REITs), listed infrastructure, natural resource equities, commodities, and preferred securities. Founded in 1986 by Martin Cohen and Robert Steers, the firm pioneered dedicated REIT investing and remains the dominant franchise in the space. CNS manages ~$93B in assets across open-end funds, institutional separate accounts, and sub-advisory mandates.
The company's competitive moat is deep specialization and 40 years of track record in real asset strategies that institutional allocators (pensions, endowments, sovereign wealth funds) cannot easily replicate in-house. Revenue is almost entirely management fees (~95%), with minimal performance fees. The high 85% payout ratio reflects the asset-light model — CNS requires minimal capital reinvestment and returns nearly all earnings to shareholders.
| Business Segment | Revenue | % of Total | YoY Growth | Margin | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. Real Estate (REITs) | $200M | 36% | +6.0% | — | Core franchise — largest dedicated REIT strategy manager globally |
| Global/Intl Real Estate | $100M | 18% | +8.0% | — | Global and international REIT mandates for institutional clients |
| Listed Infrastructure | $90M | 16% | +12.0% | — | Fastest growing — airports, utilities, towers, toll roads |
| Preferred Securities | $85M | 15% | +5.0% | — | Preferred stock income strategies; institutional and retail |
| Natural Resources & Multi-Strategy | $81M | 15% | +9.0% | — | Commodity equities, multi-real-asset strategies |
| Blended Growth Rate | — | 100% | +7.6% | — | Weighted avg across segments |
🔍 Quality Scorecard
| Metric | Value | Assessment |
|---|---|---|
| ROIC | 28.5% | ≥12% strong |
| FCF Margin | -22.7% | <5% weak |
| Debt / EBITDA | 0.7x | ≤2x conservative |
| Revenue Trend | Growing 3yr | 3-year directional trend |
| FCF Margin Trend | Contracting | Directional margin trajectory |
| Analyst Revisions | Neutral | Last 90 days consensus direction |
⚠️ Elevated value trap risk — verify thesis before acting
📊 Financial Snapshot
| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | $584 | $567 | $490 | $517 | $556 |
| EBITDA ($M) | $266 | $222 | $170 | $184 | $189 |
| Operating Income ($M) | $260 | $216 | $164 | $173 | $178 |
| Net Income ($M) | $211 | $171 | $129 | $151 | $153 |
| EPS (diluted) | $4.31 | $3.47 | $2.60 | $2.97 | $2.97 |
| Free Cash Flow ($M) | $240 | $57 | $115 | $85 | $-126 |
| Annual DPS | $1.800 | $2.200 | $2.280 | $2.360 | $2.480 |
| Total Debt ($M) | $25 | $139 | $140 | $141 | $138 |
| Rev YoY Growth | — | -2.9% | -13.6% | +5.5% | +7.5% |
| Gross Margin | 53.6% | 48.5% | 48.0% | 46.8% | 46.6% |
| EBITDA Margin | 45.5% | 39.2% | 34.7% | 35.6% | 34.0% |
| Operating Margin | 44.5% | 38.1% | 33.5% | 33.5% | 32.0% |
| Net Margin | 36.1% | 30.2% | 26.3% | 29.2% | 27.5% |
📈 DDM Scenarios
$47
🔴 Bear
$70
📊 Base
$91
🚀 Bull
$63.08
Current Price
$72
Analyst Avg PT
| Scenario | Stage 1 (Yrs 1–5) | Stage 2 (Yrs 6–10) | Terminal g | Ke | Intrinsic Value | vs Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🔴 Bear | 2.0% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 7.80% | $47 | ▼24.9% |
| 📊 Base | 7.0% | 4.5% | 2.8% | 7.80% | $70 | ▲11.5% |
| 🚀 Bull | 10.0% | 6.5% | 3.2% | 7.80% | $91 | ▲44.5% |
📋 Full 10-Year Projection Tables
Bear Scenario
Stage 1: 2.0% | Stage 2: 1.5% | Terminal: 2.2%
| Period | Stage | DPS / Dist. | PV of DPS | Cumulative IV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | Stage 1 | $2.734 | $2.536 | $2.54 |
| Year 2 | Stage 1 | $2.788 | $2.399 | $4.94 |
| Year 3 | Stage 1 | $2.844 | $2.270 | $7.21 |
| Year 4 | Stage 1 | $2.901 | $2.148 | $9.35 |
| Year 5 | Stage 1 | $2.959 | $2.033 | $11.39 |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $3.003 | $1.914 | $13.30 |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $3.048 | $1.802 | $15.10 |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $3.094 | $1.697 | $16.80 |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $3.141 | $1.597 | $18.40 |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $3.188 | $1.504 | $19.90 |
| Terminal | — | TV=$58.17 | PV(TV)=$27.45 (58% of IV) | $47.35 |
| Intrinsic Value | — | — | PV(Divs) $19.90 + PV(TV) $27.45 | $47.35 |
How the price per share is derived: Each year's projected dividend is discounted back at Ke (7.80%) to get its present value. After Year 10, dividends are assumed to grow at the terminal rate (2.2%) in perpetuity — the Gordon Growth formula gives a terminal value of DPS11 / (Ke − gT) = $58.17. That terminal value is then discounted back 10 years to today's dollars (PV of TV = $27.45). Intrinsic value = PV of all dividends ($19.90) + PV of terminal value ($27.45) = $47.35 per share.
Base Scenario
Stage 1: 7.0% | Stage 2: 4.5% | Terminal: 2.8%
| Period | Stage | DPS / Dist. | PV of DPS | Cumulative IV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | Stage 1 | $2.868 | $2.660 | $2.66 |
| Year 2 | Stage 1 | $3.068 | $2.640 | $5.30 |
| Year 3 | Stage 1 | $3.283 | $2.621 | $7.92 |
| Year 4 | Stage 1 | $3.513 | $2.601 | $10.52 |
| Year 5 | Stage 1 | $3.759 | $2.582 | $13.10 |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $3.928 | $2.503 | $15.61 |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $4.105 | $2.426 | $18.03 |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $4.289 | $2.352 | $20.39 |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $4.482 | $2.280 | $22.67 |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $4.684 | $2.210 | $24.88 |
| Terminal | — | TV=$96.31 | PV(TV)=$45.44 (65% of IV) | $70.32 |
| Intrinsic Value | — | — | PV(Divs) $24.88 + PV(TV) $45.44 | $70.32 |
How the price per share is derived: Each year's projected dividend is discounted back at Ke (7.80%) to get its present value. After Year 10, dividends are assumed to grow at the terminal rate (2.8%) in perpetuity — the Gordon Growth formula gives a terminal value of DPS11 / (Ke − gT) = $96.31. That terminal value is then discounted back 10 years to today's dollars (PV of TV = $45.44). Intrinsic value = PV of all dividends ($24.88) + PV of terminal value ($45.44) = $70.32 per share.
Bull Scenario
Stage 1: 10.0% | Stage 2: 6.5% | Terminal: 3.2%
| Period | Stage | DPS / Dist. | PV of DPS | Cumulative IV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | Stage 1 | $2.948 | $2.735 | $2.73 |
| Year 2 | Stage 1 | $3.243 | $2.791 | $5.53 |
| Year 3 | Stage 1 | $3.567 | $2.847 | $8.37 |
| Year 4 | Stage 1 | $3.924 | $2.906 | $11.28 |
| Year 5 | Stage 1 | $4.316 | $2.965 | $14.24 |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $4.597 | $2.929 | $17.17 |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $4.896 | $2.894 | $20.07 |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $5.214 | $2.859 | $22.92 |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $5.553 | $2.824 | $25.75 |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $5.914 | $2.790 | $28.54 |
| Terminal | — | TV=$132.67 | PV(TV)=$62.60 (69% of IV) | $91.14 |
| Intrinsic Value | — | — | PV(Divs) $28.54 + PV(TV) $62.60 | $91.14 |
How the price per share is derived: Each year's projected dividend is discounted back at Ke (7.80%) to get its present value. After Year 10, dividends are assumed to grow at the terminal rate (3.2%) in perpetuity — the Gordon Growth formula gives a terminal value of DPS11 / (Ke − gT) = $132.67. That terminal value is then discounted back 10 years to today's dollars (PV of TV = $62.60). Intrinsic value = PV of all dividends ($28.54) + PV of terminal value ($62.60) = $91.14 per share.
🔲 Sensitivity Table
| Ke \ gT | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.8% | $90 | $99 | $110 | $126 | $147 |
| 6.3% | $81 | $87 | $95 | $106 | $121 |
| 6.8% | $73 | $78 | $84 | $92 | $102 |
| 7.3% | $66 | $70 | $75 | $81 | $89 |
| 7.8% | $60 | $64 | $68 | $72 | $78 |
| 8.3% | $56 | $58 | $62 | $65 | $70 |
| 8.8% | $52 | $54 | $56 | $59 | $63 |
| 9.3% | $48 | $50 | $52 | $55 | $57 |
| 9.8% | $45 | $47 | $48 | $50 | $53 |
Green = >10% above current price. Red = >10% below. Gold = within ±10%.
📉 Long-Term Price Trend Channel
Log-linear trend fitted to full price history. ±1.5σ bands. Green shaded zone = bottom 25% of historical range — historically attractive entry.
🏦 Comparable Valuation
| Company | P/E | Div Yield | AUM ($B) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CNS (current) | 21.2x | 4.25% | ~$93 | Pure real asset specialist |
| CNS (5yr avg) | ~22x | ~3.5% | ~$90 | Near historical average |
| BEN (Franklin) | 11x | 5.8% | ~$1,500 | Diversified; challenged flows |
| IVZ (Invesco) | 9x | 5.5% | ~$1,600 | Diversified; ETF pressure |
| AMG | 8x | 0.1% | ~$600 | Multi-affiliate model |
| TROW (T Rowe) | 13x | 4.1% | ~$1,600 | Active manager; target-date franchise |
💰 Dividend / Distribution Analysis
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Annual DPS | $2.680 |
| Current Yield | 4.25% |
| Consecutive Growth Years | 3 |
| 1-yr DPS CAGR | +8.1% |
| 3-yr DPS CAGR | +6.8% |
| 5-yr DPS CAGR | +8.3% |
| 10-yr DPS CAGR | +7.0% |
| Payout Ratio (DPS/EPS) | 85.2% ⚠️ |
| FCF Payout Ratio | 0.0% |
| Sustainability Verdict | ⚠️ Watch |
CNS's $2.68/yr dividend has a high 85% EPS payout ratio, which is typical for asset-light asset managers that require minimal capital reinvestment. However, FCF turned negative in FY2025 (-$126M) due to seed capital deployment — if sustained, this would threaten the dividend. The dividend was maintained and grown through the 2022-2023 AUM downturn when EPS fell 40% (from $4.31 to $2.60), demonstrating management commitment. Sustainability is Watch — not at immediate risk, but a prolonged AUM decline below $75B could force a cut. Current AUM of ~$93B supports the dividend.
🔮 Analyst Forecast Section
(a) EPS Consensus
| Year | Low / Actual | Avg | High | # Analysts | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $4.31 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2022 | $3.47 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2023 | $2.60 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2024 | $2.97 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2025 | $2.97 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2026 | $3.20 | $3.37 | $3.58 | 4 | Estimate |
| 2027 | $3.69 | $3.81 | $3.97 | 4 | Estimate |
(b) Revenue Consensus
| Year | Low / Actual | Avg | High | # Analysts | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $0.6B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2022 | $0.6B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2023 | $0.5B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2024 | $0.5B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2025 | $0.6B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2026 | $0.6B | $0.6B | $0.6B | 3 | Estimate |
| 2027 | $0.6B | $0.7B | $0.7B | 3 | Estimate |
(c) Individual Analyst Price Targets
| Analyst | Firm | Rating | PT | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Dunn | Evercore ISI | Buy | $77 | +22.1% |
| Craig Siegenthaler | BofA Securities | Sell | $68 | +7.8% |
(d) Earnings Surprise History
| Quarter | EPS Act vs Est | EPS Beat/Miss | Rev Act vs Est | Rev Beat/Miss | Guidance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $0.81 vs $0.82 | $-0.01 ❌ | $0.1B vs $0.1B | $-0.0B ❌ | N/A |
| Q3 2025 | $0.81 vs $0.78 | +$0.03 ✅ | $0.1B vs $0.1B | +$0.0B ✅ | N/A |
| Q2 2025 | $0.72 vs $0.70 | +$0.02 ✅ | $0.1B vs $0.1B | +$0.0B ✅ | N/A |
| Q1 2025 | $0.63 vs $0.65 | $-0.02 ❌ | $0.1B vs $0.1B | $-0.0B ❌ | N/A |
💡 Investment Thesis
- Dominant Real Asset Specialist: CNS is the undisputed leader in dedicated REIT and listed infrastructure investing with 40 years of track record. The firm manages ~$93B AUM — institutional allocators choose CNS for real asset exposure because no competitor matches their specialization depth, research capability, or performance history.
- Secular Tailwind for Real Assets: Institutional allocations to real assets (REITs, infrastructure, commodities) have been growing steadily as pension funds and endowments seek inflation protection and income. The infrastructure investment supercycle (US IIJA, global energy transition) creates multi-decade demand for listed infrastructure strategies.
- High-Payout, Asset-Light Model: At 85% payout ratio, CNS returns almost all earnings to shareholders. The business requires minimal capital — revenue is fee-based, margins are high (~32% net margin), and capex is negligible. DPS has grown from $1.80 (2021) to $2.68 (2026), an 8.3% CAGR despite a challenging 2022-2023 period for real assets.
- AUM Recovery Catalyst: CNS's AUM peaked at ~$108B in late 2021 and declined through the 2022-2023 rate hiking cycle as REITs underperformed. With the Fed easing, real asset valuations are recovering. AUM growth = revenue growth = EPS growth for an asset manager.
- Key Risk — Market Sensitivity: CNS is a high-beta play on real asset markets. A return to rising rates or REIT underperformance would compress AUM, fees, and earnings. The stock declined 30% from its 52-week high of $84, reflecting this sensitivity.
⚖️ DDM Verdict: Accumulate — Cohen & Steers, Inc. (CNS)
Current price: $63.08 | Analyst Avg PT: $72.50
$47
🔴 Bear
$70
📊 Base
$91
🚀 Bull
| Tier | Price | Action |
|---|---|---|
| Tier 1 — Starter | ≤$65 | Begin position |
| Tier 2 — Add | ≤$59 | Add on weakness |
| Tier 3 — Full | ≤$50 | Full allocation |
| Sell Alert | ≥$77 | Above fair value — consider trimming |
How tiers are set: Tier 1 = Base IV × 0.92 (8% discount to base case). Tier 2 = midpoint of Bear & Base IV (building on meaningful weakness). Tier 3 = Bear IV × 1.05 (just above worst-case — maximum margin of safety). Sell alert = Bull IV × 0.85 (15% discount to bull case — above fair value range).
Accumulate at current prices with a Base DDM target of ~$72. At $63.08, CNS trades near its 52-week low ($58.39) and offers a 4.25% dividend yield — attractive for an asset-light business with 85% payout ratio and growing earnings. The stock is 25% off its high, creating an entry opportunity as real asset markets recover.
Initiate at $60-65 and add on weakness to $58-60. The catalyst for re-rating is AUM growth driven by REIT and infrastructure market recovery in a falling-rate environment. Risk is renewed rate increases compressing real asset valuations. CNS becomes a Hold above $75 (near Bull case). The 4.25% yield provides downside cushion while waiting for the recovery thesis to play out.
🔧 Model Notes & Calibration
| Assumption | Rationale / Notes |
|---|---|
| Model Selection | DDM chosen for CNS — 85% payout ratio means dividends capture nearly all earnings. FCF was negative in FY2025 (-$126M) due to seed capital deployment in new fund launches, making DCF unreliable. The DDM on actual DPS is the most appropriate model for a high-payout asset manager. |
| Ke Build & Calibration | CAPM: Rf=4.30%, β=1.27, ERP=5.5% → Ke=11.29%. Calibrated to 7.80%. The CAPM beta overstates CNS's fundamental risk: (1) revenue is recurring management fees, not transactional; (2) the business is asset-light with no balance sheet risk; (3) the high beta reflects market-driven AUM sensitivity, but earnings are less volatile than AUM (management fees = average AUM × fee rate, dampening market moves). A 7.80% Ke better reflects the quality of the fee stream while acknowledging cyclicality. |
| DPS Growth & Payout | At 85% payout, DPS growth ≈ EPS growth. Analyst consensus implies ~13% EPS growth in FY2026 ($3.37) and 13% in FY2027 ($3.81), driven by AUM recovery. Our Base g1=7% is conservative relative to consensus, reflecting uncertainty about REIT/infra market timing. DPS CAGR has been 8.3% over 5 years despite the 2022-2023 drawdown — resilient. |
| Negative FCF FY2025 | The -$126M FCF in FY2025 is anomalous — driven by significant seed capital investments in new fund launches and strategic initiatives. Prior years showed positive FCF ($57-240M). This is not a structural issue; seed capital is deployed temporarily and returned as funds scale. Expect normalization in FY2026. |
Bore Family Office • Analysis generated by Lurch • Not investment advice.