Bore Family Office
Valuation Report — CrowdStrike Holdings (CRWD) • March 11, 2026
Unlevered DCF (FCFF @ WACC) • Discount Rate: 10.12% • Current Price: $436.33
Prepared by Lurch • Bore Family Office • Data: Finnhub, StockAnalysis.com, S&P Global Market Intelligence
🏢 Business Overview
CrowdStrike Holdings (CRWD) is the leading cloud-native cybersecurity platform, founded in 2011
by former McAfee CTO George Kurtz. Its Falcon platform uses AI/ML to detect and prevent
breaches across endpoints, identity, cloud, and data. CrowdStrike pioneered the "single sensor,
single agent" approach with cloud-delivered threat intelligence — making it structurally superior
to legacy on-premise security vendors.
FY2026 Highlights: Revenue $4.81B (+22% YoY). FCF $1.31B
(+16% YoY, 27% FCF margin). ARR exceeded $4.2B. Despite the July 2024 software update incident
that caused a global IT outage, CRWD retained the vast majority of customers and has since
resumed strong growth. The incident accelerated platform consolidation as enterprises valued the
depth of CRWD's security stack.
Platform Modules: Falcon offers 28+ modules — endpoint
protection, identity protection, cloud security (CNAPP), SIEM (Next-Gen SIEM), and AI-powered
SecOps. The platform-vs-point-solution trend strongly favors CRWD as enterprises consolidate
vendors. Average customer uses 7+ modules vs. 1–2 modules five years ago.
📊 Financial Snapshot
| Metric | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | FY2026 |
|---|
| Revenue ($M) | $1,452 | $2,241 | $3,056 | $3,954 | $4,812 |
| EBITDA ($M) | $-74 | $-96 | $126 | $498 | $-12 |
| Operating Income ($M) | $-143 | $-190 | $-19 | $-116 | $-293 |
| Net Income ($M) | $-235 | $-183 | $89 | $-15 | $-163 |
| EPS (diluted) | $-1.03 | $-0.79 | $0.36 | $-0.06 | $-0.65 |
| Free Cash Flow ($M) | $463 | $706 | $990 | $1,127 | $1,310 |
| Annual DPS | $0.000 | $0.000 | $0.000 | $0.000 | $0.000 |
| Total Debt ($M) | $775 | $784 | $793 | $789 | $820 |
| Rev YoY Growth | — | +54.3% | +36.4% | +29.4% | +21.7% |
📈 DCF Scenarios
| Scenario | Stage 1 (Yrs 1–5) | Stage 2 (Yrs 6–10) | Terminal g | WACC | Intrinsic Value | vs Price |
|---|
| 🔴 Bear | 25.5% | 14.0% | 2.0% | 10.12% | $262 | ▼39.8% |
| 📊 Base | 36.3% | 20.0% | 3.0% | 10.12% | $505 | ▲15.8% |
| 🚀 Bull | 50.0% | 28.0% | 3.5% | 10.12% | $1099 | ▲151.8% |
📋 Full 10-Year Projection Tables
Bear Scenario
Stage 1: 25.5% | Stage 2: 14.0% | Terminal: 2.0%
| Period | Stage | FCFF | PV of FCFF | Cumulative EV |
|---|
| Year 1 | Stage 1 | $1.64B | $1.49B | $1.49B |
| Year 2 | Stage 1 | $2.06B | $1.70B | $3.19B |
| Year 3 | Stage 1 | $2.59B | $1.94B | $5.13B |
| Year 4 | Stage 1 | $3.25B | $2.21B | $7.34B |
| Year 5 | Stage 1 | $4.08B | $2.52B | $9.86B |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $4.65B | $2.61B | $12.47B |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $5.30B | $2.70B | $15.17B |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $6.04B | $2.79B | $17.96B |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $6.89B | $2.89B | $20.86B |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $7.85B | $2.99B | $23.85B |
| Terminal | — | TV=$98.6B | PV(TV)=$37.6B (61% of EV) | EV=$61.5B |
Base Scenario
Stage 1: 36.3% | Stage 2: 20.0% | Terminal: 3.0%
| Period | Stage | FCFF | PV of FCFF | Cumulative EV |
|---|
| Year 1 | Stage 1 | $1.79B | $1.62B | $1.62B |
| Year 2 | Stage 1 | $2.43B | $2.01B | $3.63B |
| Year 3 | Stage 1 | $3.32B | $2.48B | $6.11B |
| Year 4 | Stage 1 | $4.52B | $3.07B | $9.19B |
| Year 5 | Stage 1 | $6.16B | $3.81B | $12.99B |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $7.39B | $4.15B | $17.14B |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $8.87B | $4.52B | $21.66B |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $10.65B | $4.92B | $26.58B |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $12.78B | $5.37B | $31.95B |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $15.33B | $5.85B | $37.80B |
| Terminal | — | TV=$221.8B | PV(TV)=$84.6B (69% of EV) | EV=$122.4B |
Bull Scenario
Stage 1: 50.0% | Stage 2: 28.0% | Terminal: 3.5%
| Period | Stage | FCFF | PV of FCFF | Cumulative EV |
|---|
| Year 1 | Stage 1 | $1.97B | $1.78B | $1.78B |
| Year 2 | Stage 1 | $2.95B | $2.43B | $4.22B |
| Year 3 | Stage 1 | $4.42B | $3.31B | $7.53B |
| Year 4 | Stage 1 | $6.63B | $4.51B | $12.04B |
| Year 5 | Stage 1 | $9.95B | $6.14B | $18.18B |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $12.73B | $7.14B | $25.32B |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $16.30B | $8.30B | $33.62B |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $20.86B | $9.65B | $43.27B |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $26.70B | $11.21B | $54.48B |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $34.18B | $13.04B | $67.52B |
| Terminal | — | TV=$534.4B | PV(TV)=$203.8B (75% of EV) | EV=$271.3B |
🔲 Sensitivity Table
| WACC \ gT | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|
| 8.1% | $619 | $657 | $701 | $754 | $819 |
| 8.6% | $565 | $596 | $632 | $675 | $726 |
| 9.1% | $519 | $545 | $575 | $609 | $650 |
| 9.6% | $479 | $501 | $526 | $554 | $587 |
| 10.1% | $444 | $462 | $483 | $507 | $534 |
| 10.6% | $413 | $429 | $446 | $466 | $489 |
| 11.1% | $385 | $399 | $414 | $431 | $450 |
| 11.6% | $361 | $372 | $385 | $400 | $416 |
| 12.1% | $338 | $349 | $360 | $372 | $386 |
Green = >10% above current price. Red = >10% below. Gold = within ±10%.
📉 Long-Term Price Trend Channel
Log-linear trend fitted to full price history. ±1.5σ bands. Green shaded zone = bottom 25% of historical range — historically attractive entry.
🏦 Comparable Valuation
| Company | Ticker | EV/FCF | P/Sales (NTM) | Rev Growth | FCF Margin |
|---|
| CrowdStrike | CRWD | 83x | 22x | +24% | 27% |
| Palo Alto Networks | PANW | 52x | 11x | +14% | 38% |
| SentinelOne | S | N/M | 8x | +23% | 5% |
| Fortinet | FTNT | 40x | 10x | +15% | 32% |
| Zscaler | ZS | 65x | 14x | +22% | 22% |
🔮 Analyst Forecast Section
(a) EPS Consensus
| Year | Low / Actual | Avg | High | # Analysts | Type |
|---|
| FY2022 | $-1.03 | — | — | — | Actual |
| FY2023 | $-0.79 | — | — | — | Actual |
| FY2024 | $0.36 | — | — | — | Actual |
| FY2025 | $-0.06 | — | — | — | Actual |
| FY2026 | $-0.65 | — | — | — | Actual |
| FY2027 | $4.43 | $4.90 | $5.46 | 55 | Estimate |
| FY2028 | $5.04 | $6.19 | $7.37 | 41 | Estimate |
(b) Revenue Consensus
| Year | Low / Actual | Avg | High | # Analysts | Type |
|---|
| FY2022 | $1.5B | — | — | — | Actual |
| FY2023 | $2.2B | — | — | — | Actual |
| FY2024 | $3.1B | — | — | — | Actual |
| FY2025 | $4.0B | — | — | — | Actual |
| FY2026 | $4.8B | — | — | — | Actual |
| FY2027 | $5.7B | $6.0B | $6.3B | 55 | Estimate |
| FY2028 | $6.7B | $7.3B | $8.0B | 41 | Estimate |
(c) Individual Analyst Price Targets
Consensus: Avg $507.20 | Range $368–$613
| Analyst | Firm | Rating | PT | Upside |
|---|
| Fatima Boolani | Citigroup | Strong Buy | $525 | +20.3% |
| Keith Weiss | Morgan Stanley | Buy | $510 | +16.9% |
| Rudy Kessinger | DA Davidson | Strong Buy | $455 | +4.3% |
| Steve Koenig | Macquarie | Hold | $400 | -8.3% |
| Peter Levine | Evercore ISI | Hold | $395 | -9.5% |
(d) Earnings Surprise History
| Quarter | EPS Act vs Est | EPS Beat/Miss | Rev Act vs Est | Rev Beat/Miss | Guidance |
|---|
| Q4 FY2026 | $-0.14 vs $-0.28 | +$0.14 ✅ | $1.1B vs $1.0B | +$0.1B ✅ | FY2027 guidance above consensus |
| Q3 FY2026 | $-0.15 vs $-0.22 | +$0.07 ✅ | $1.0B vs $1.0B | +$0.0B ✅ | ARR growth reaccelerating |
| Q2 FY2026 | $-0.19 vs $-0.24 | +$0.05 ✅ | $0.9B vs $0.8B | +$0.0B ✅ | Customer retention strong |
| Q1 FY2026 | $-0.17 vs $-0.21 | +$0.04 ✅ | $0.8B vs $0.8B | +$0.0B ✅ | Recovery from incident complete |
(e) Confidence Band Commentary
CRWD consistently beats revenue estimates (typically 4–7% above consensus). GAAP EPS is negative due to massive SBC expense; non-GAAP EPS for FY2027 consensus is $4.90 (at 89× non-GAAP PE). The wide PT range ($368–$613) reflects uncertainty around valuation methodology (FCF vs SBC-adjusted). Morgan Stanley upgrade to $510 on March 10 is a positive signal. Post-incident recovery has been better than feared — net new ARR continues growing.
💡 Investment Thesis
Bull Case: Falcon becomes the operating system of
enterprise security. AI-native threat detection creates a durable moat as legacy vendors
(Symantec, McAfee successors) continue losing share. CRWD expands into SIEM, identity, and
cloud security — a $100B+ TAM. FCF margins expand to 35%+ as platform matures. At $613 bull
PT, CRWD trades at ~45× FY2028 FCF.
Bear Case: The July 2024 outage has a longer tail —
enterprise procurement committees mandate diversification away from single-vendor security.
Microsoft Security consolidates mid-market customers on its native platform. Palo Alto's
"platformization" strategy wins the same enterprise consolidation play. FCF growth slows to
10% and the premium multiple compresses.
Base Thesis: CRWD is the best pure-play AI cybersecurity
name in existence. The platform moat is deepening — not eroding. At $436, it trades at ~83×
FCF (FY2026), which is premium but justified for 22%+ growth with 27% FCF margins and
accelerating. The July 2024 incident is in the rearview; ARR growth has reaccelerated.
This is the right security platform for the AI era. Hold and accumulate below $420.
Joseph holds 110 shares @ $232.91 avg cost — currently +87% unrealized. This is a strong
position. Adding here requires conviction on the premium valuation.
⚖️ DCF Verdict: Hold — CrowdStrike Holdings (CRWD)
Current price: $436.33 | Analyst Avg PT: $507.20
| Tier | Price | Action |
|---|
| Tier 1 — Starter | ≤$465 | Begin position |
| Tier 2 — Add | ≤$384 | Add on weakness |
| Tier 3 — Full | ≤$276 | Full allocation |
| Sell Alert | ≥$934 | Above fair value — consider trimming |
📂 Current Position Summary
| Metric | Value |
|---|
| Shares Held | 110 |
| Average Cost Basis | $232.91 |
| Current Market Value | $47,996 |
| Unrealized P&L | $+22,376 (+87.3%) |
| Annual DPS | — (not provided) |
| Annual Dividend Income | — (DPS missing) |
| Current Yield (at price) | — |
| Yield on Cost | — |
| vs Target (~$200K) | $47,996 / $200,000 (24%) |
Bore Family Office • Analysis generated by Lurch • Not investment advice.
