D
D
Hold 2026-04-28
Model
DDM
Price at Report
$62.50
Base IV
$60.12
Bear IV
$50.19
Bull IV
$68.43
Entry Zone: 52-58 · Sell Above: 68
Bore Family Office
Valuation Report — Dominion Energy Inc. (D) • April 28, 2026
3-Stage DDM (Ke) • Discount Rate: 7.67% • Current Price: $62.50
Prepared by Lurch • Bore Family Office • Data: Finnhub, StockAnalysis.com, S&P Global Market Intelligence
🏢 Business Overview
Dominion Energy is one of the largest regulated electric utilities in the US, serving 4M+ customers primarily in Virginia and the Carolinas. Following the 2024 divestiture of its gas distribution business, Dominion is now a pure-play regulated electric utility with a focus on clean energy transition. The company's flagship growth driver is the Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind (CVOW) project — a $10B+ investment expected to be operational by 2027, driving 7-9% rate base growth.
| Business Segment | Revenue | % of Total | YoY Growth | Margin | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Virginia Electric & Power | $8,500M | 62% | +7.0% | — | Dominion Energy Virginia; rate base growth 7-9% |
| Cove Point LNG | $1,800M | 13% | +2.0% | — | LNG export terminal; stable contracted cash flows |
| Contracted Assets | $2,200M | 16% | +3.0% | — | Solar, battery storage, renewable projects |
| Corporate / Other | $1,170M | 9% | -1.0% | — | Corporate items, eliminations |
| Blended Growth Rate | — | 100% | +5.0% | — | Weighted avg across segments |
📊 Business Lifecycle Stage
Stage 1
Startup
Startup
Stage 2
Hyper Growth
Hyper Growth
Stage 3
Self Funding
Self Funding
Stage 4
Operating Leverage
Operating Leverage
Stage 5
Capital Return
Capital Return
Stage 6
Decline
Decline
Stage 4 — Capital Harvester: Revenue growing modestly with profits inflecting rapidly. The classic DCF sweet spot — FCF is reliable, growing, and well-anchored to analyst estimates.
Why this drives model selection: Classic DCF sweet spot — FCF inflecting and growing rapidly.
📊 Financial Snapshot
| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | $11,419 | $13,938 | $14,393 | $3,632 | $4,076 |
| Rev YoY Growth | — | +22.1% | +3.3% | -74.8% | +12.2% |
| Gross Margin | 42.9% | 43.0% | 42.4% | 44.1% | 42.9% |
| EBITDA ($M) | $6,500 | $5,800 | $6,100 | $2,400 | $2,650 |
| EBITDA Margin | 56.9% | 41.6% | 42.4% | 66.1% | 65.0% |
| Operating Income ($M) | $1,996 | $1,447 | $3,414 | $833 | $1,223 |
| Operating Margin | 17.5% | 10.4% | 23.7% | 22.9% | 30.0% |
| Net Income ($M) | $3,399 | $1,191 | $1,962 | $403 | $665 |
| Net Margin | 29.8% | 8.5% | 13.6% | 11.1% | 16.3% |
| EPS (diluted) | $4.12 | $1.33 | $2.25 | $0.46 | $0.77 |
| Free Cash Flow ($M) | $4,037 | $3,700 | $6,572 | $5,018 | $5,361 |
| Annual DPS | $2.520 | $2.670 | $2.670 | $2.670 | $2.670 |
| Total Debt ($M) | $37,426 | $34,584 | $33,248 | $37,525 | $44,075 |
💹 Capital Return & Share Count Analysis
Net Share Change
+5.8% (2021→2025)
📈 Net dilution — issuances exceed buybacks
| Year | Diluted Shares (M) | YoY Change | Buyback Spend ($M) | Buyback Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 808.5M | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 824.8M | +2.0% | — | — |
| 2023 | 836.5M | +1.4% | — | — |
| 2024 | 839.4M | +0.3% | — | — |
| 2025 | 855.3M | +1.9% | — | — |
D repurchased $3.1B in 2020 but has not had an active buyback program since. Share count has crept up modestly due to equity issuance for capex funding. Capital is allocated primarily to dividends and growth CapEx (CVOW).
📈 DDM Scenarios
$50
🔴 Bear
$60
📊 Base
$68
🚀 Bull
$62.50
Current Price
$66
Analyst Avg PT
| Scenario | Stage 1 (Yrs 1–5) | Stage 2 (Yrs 6–10) | Terminal g | Ke | Intrinsic Value | vs Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🔴 Bear | 3.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 7.67% | $50 | ▼19.7% |
| 📊 Base | 5.0% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 7.67% | $60 | ▼3.8% |
| 🚀 Bull | 6.0% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 7.67% | $68 | ▲9.5% |
📋 Full 10-Year Projection Tables
Bear Scenario
Stage 1: 3.0% | Stage 2: 2.0% | Terminal: 2.0%
| Period | Stage | DPS / Dist. | PV of DPS | Cumulative IV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | Stage 1 | $2.750 | $2.554 | $2.55 |
| Year 2 | Stage 1 | $2.833 | $2.443 | $5.00 |
| Year 3 | Stage 1 | $2.918 | $2.337 | $7.34 |
| Year 4 | Stage 1 | $3.005 | $2.236 | $9.57 |
| Year 5 | Stage 1 | $3.095 | $2.139 | $11.71 |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $3.157 | $2.026 | $13.74 |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $3.220 | $1.920 | $15.66 |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $3.285 | $1.819 | $17.47 |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $3.350 | $1.723 | $19.20 |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $3.417 | $1.632 | $20.83 |
| Terminal | — | TV=$61.48 | PV(TV)=$29.36 (58% of IV) | $50.19 |
| Intrinsic Value | — | — | PV(Divs) $20.83 + PV(TV) $29.36 | $50.19 |
How the price per share is derived: Each year's projected dividend is discounted back at Ke (7.67%) to get its present value. After Year 10, dividends are assumed to grow at the terminal rate (2.0%) in perpetuity — the Gordon Growth formula gives a terminal value of DPS11 / (Ke − gT) = $61.48. That terminal value is then discounted back 10 years to today's dollars (PV of TV = $29.36). Intrinsic value = PV of all dividends ($20.83) + PV of terminal value ($29.36) = $50.19 per share.
Base Scenario
Stage 1: 5.0% | Stage 2: 3.0% | Terminal: 2.5%
| Period | Stage | DPS / Dist. | PV of DPS | Cumulative IV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | Stage 1 | $2.804 | $2.604 | $2.60 |
| Year 2 | Stage 1 | $2.944 | $2.539 | $5.14 |
| Year 3 | Stage 1 | $3.091 | $2.476 | $7.62 |
| Year 4 | Stage 1 | $3.245 | $2.415 | $10.03 |
| Year 5 | Stage 1 | $3.408 | $2.355 | $12.39 |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $3.510 | $2.253 | $14.64 |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $3.615 | $2.155 | $16.80 |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $3.724 | $2.062 | $18.86 |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $3.835 | $1.972 | $20.83 |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $3.950 | $1.887 | $22.72 |
| Terminal | — | TV=$78.32 | PV(TV)=$37.41 (62% of IV) | $60.12 |
| Intrinsic Value | — | — | PV(Divs) $22.72 + PV(TV) $37.41 | $60.12 |
How the price per share is derived: Each year's projected dividend is discounted back at Ke (7.67%) to get its present value. After Year 10, dividends are assumed to grow at the terminal rate (2.5%) in perpetuity — the Gordon Growth formula gives a terminal value of DPS11 / (Ke − gT) = $78.32. That terminal value is then discounted back 10 years to today's dollars (PV of TV = $37.41). Intrinsic value = PV of all dividends ($22.72) + PV of terminal value ($37.41) = $60.12 per share.
Bull Scenario
Stage 1: 6.0% | Stage 2: 3.5% | Terminal: 3.0%
| Period | Stage | DPS / Dist. | PV of DPS | Cumulative IV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | Stage 1 | $2.830 | $2.629 | $2.63 |
| Year 2 | Stage 1 | $3.000 | $2.588 | $5.22 |
| Year 3 | Stage 1 | $3.180 | $2.548 | $7.76 |
| Year 4 | Stage 1 | $3.371 | $2.508 | $10.27 |
| Year 5 | Stage 1 | $3.573 | $2.469 | $12.74 |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $3.698 | $2.374 | $15.12 |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $3.828 | $2.282 | $17.40 |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $3.962 | $2.193 | $19.59 |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $4.100 | $2.108 | $21.70 |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $4.244 | $2.027 | $23.73 |
| Terminal | — | TV=$93.60 | PV(TV)=$44.70 (65% of IV) | $68.43 |
| Intrinsic Value | — | — | PV(Divs) $23.73 + PV(TV) $44.70 | $68.43 |
How the price per share is derived: Each year's projected dividend is discounted back at Ke (7.67%) to get its present value. After Year 10, dividends are assumed to grow at the terminal rate (3.0%) in perpetuity — the Gordon Growth formula gives a terminal value of DPS11 / (Ke − gT) = $93.60. That terminal value is then discounted back 10 years to today's dollars (PV of TV = $44.70). Intrinsic value = PV of all dividends ($23.73) + PV of terminal value ($44.70) = $68.43 per share.
🔲 Sensitivity Table
| Ke \ gT | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.7% | $80 | $88 | $98 | $112 | $132 |
| 6.2% | $71 | $77 | $84 | $94 | $107 |
| 6.7% | $64 | $69 | $74 | $81 | $91 |
| 7.2% | $58 | $62 | $66 | $72 | $78 |
| 7.7% | $53 | $56 | $60 | $64 | $69 |
| 8.2% | $49 | $52 | $54 | $58 | $62 |
| 8.7% | $46 | $48 | $50 | $53 | $56 |
| 9.2% | $43 | $44 | $46 | $48 | $51 |
| 9.7% | $40 | $41 | $43 | $45 | $47 |
Green = >10% above current price. Red = >10% below. Gold = within ±10%.
📉 Long-Term Price Trend Channel
Log-linear trend fitted to full price history. ±1.5σ bands. Green shaded zone = bottom 25% of historical range — historically attractive entry.
🏦 Comparable Valuation
| Company | Ticker | Price | Div Yield | P/E | EV/EBITDA | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dominion Energy | D | $62.50 | 4.3% | 18.3x | 13.5x | 6.0% |
| Duke Energy | DUK | $108.00 | 3.6% | 19.5x | 14.2x | 5.5% |
| Southern Company | SO | $84.00 | 3.8% | 20.1x | 13.8x | 5.0% |
| NextEra Energy | NEE | $72.00 | 2.8% | 22.5x | 15.5x | 7.0% |
🔮 Analyst Forecast Section
(a) EPS Consensus
| Year | Low / Actual | Avg | High | # Analysts | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $4.12 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2022 | $1.33 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2023 | $2.25 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2024 | $0.46 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2025 | $0.77 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2026 | $3.44 | $3.66 | $3.82 | 23 | Estimate |
| 2027 | $3.68 | $3.90 | $4.11 | 22 | Estimate |
(b) Revenue Consensus
| Year | Low / Actual | Avg | High | # Analysts | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $11.4B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2022 | $13.9B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2023 | $14.4B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2024 | $3.6B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2025 | $4.1B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2026 | $16.2B | $17.9B | $20.0B | 23 | Estimate |
| 2027 | $16.9B | $19.1B | $21.2B | 22 | Estimate |
(c) Individual Analyst Price Targets
| Analyst | Firm | Rating | PT | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Byrd | Morgan Stanley | Hold | $68 | +8.8% |
| R. Sunderland | Truist | Hold | $67 | +7.2% |
| N. Campanella | Barclays | Buy | $66 | +5.6% |
| J. Dumoulin-Smith | BofA | Hold | $65 | +4.0% |
| P. Zimbardo | Jefferies | Hold | $65 | +4.0% |
💡 Investment Thesis
- Rate base growth leader — 7-9% rate base growth is among the highest for regulated utilities, driven by CVOW offshore wind and grid modernization.
- Pure-play regulated utility — post-restructuring, Dominion is simpler and more focused; Virginia regulation is constructive.
- Dividend yield support — 4.3% yield with 76% payout ratio provides income floor; 6% EPS growth guidance supports dividend increases.
- CVOW execution risk — offshore wind is capital-intensive and weather-dependent; cost overruns could compress returns and delay rate base recognition.
👔 Management Quality & Culture
CEO: And Leadership · Tenure: Since 2020 (~6 yrs)
Net Insider Buys (12m)
+146,371 shares
Incentive Alignment
⚠️ Moderate
Compensation: Equity-based compensation present · Performance-linked incentives noted
CEO Background & Track Record
Executive Leadership | Dominion Energy
Executive Vice President, Chief Administrative and Projects Officer and Corporate Secretary, and President-Dominion Energy Services View Bio
Executive Vice President, Chief Administrative and Projects Officer and Corporate Secretary, and President-Dominion Energy Services View Bio
Dominion Energy Inc Executive & Employee Information - Globa
Prior to this, he served as the President and Chief Executive Officer at the company from 2020 to 2021. he served as the Executive Vice President and Co-Chief Operating Officer of the company from December 2019 to September
Prior to this, he served as the President and Chief Executive Officer at the company from 2020 to 2021. he served as the Executive Vice President and Co-Chief Operating Officer of the company from December 2019 to September
Dominion Energy, Inc. (D) Leadership & Management Team Analy
Dominion Energy's CEO is Bob Blue, appointed in Oct 2020, has a tenure of 5.42 years. total yearly compensation is $16.04M, comprised of 8% salary and 92% bonuses, including company stock and options. directly owns 0.0
Dominion Energy's CEO is Bob Blue, appointed in Oct 2020, has a tenure of 5.42 years. total yearly compensation is $16.04M, comprised of 8% salary and 92% bonuses, including company stock and options. directly owns 0.0
Capital Allocation & Strategy
Who Owns Dominion Energy Company? – PortersFiveForce.com
Dominion Energy's board in 2024–2025 is chaired and led by Chair, President, and CEO Robert M.
Dominion Energy's board in 2024–2025 is chaired and led by Chair, President, and CEO Robert M.
List of 3 Acquisitions by Dominion Energy (Sep 2025) - Tracx
Discover Dominion Energy's complete list of acquisitions with year-wise trends, sector-wise breakdowns, geographic insights, and related M&A news and activity data.
Discover Dominion Energy's complete list of acquisitions with year-wise trends, sector-wise breakdowns, geographic insights, and related M&A news and activity data.
Employee Ratings
Overall Rating
3.8/5 ★★★★☆
Reviews
632
Culture Signal
Positive
✅ Strengths
- work-life balance
- recommend
- supportive
Employee Review Excerpts
Dominion Energy Reviews (1,065): Pros & Cons of Working At D
How satisfied are employees working at Dominion Energy?81% of Dominion Energy employees would recommend working there to a friend based on Glassdoor reviews. Employees also rated Dominion Energy 3.8 out of 5 for work life balance, 3
How satisfied are employees working at Dominion Energy?81% of Dominion Energy employees would recommend working there to a friend based on Glassdoor reviews. Employees also rated Dominion Energy 3.8 out of 5 for work life balance, 3
Dominion Energy - Excellent Company | Glassdoor
Dominion Energy · Engaged Employer ... employee, less than 1 year · Richmond, VA · Recommend · CEO approval · Business outlook · Pros · Positive Workplace Culture Supportive Leadership Career Growth Great Benefits ·...
Dominion Energy · Engaged Employer ... employee, less than 1 year · Richmond, VA · Recommend · CEO approval · Business outlook · Pros · Positive Workplace Culture Supportive Leadership Career Growth Great Benefits ·...
Dominion Energy Reviews in Columbia | Glassdoor
How is the work culture at Dominion Energy in Columbia?Employees in Columbia have rated Dominion Energy with 3.2 out of 5 for work-life-balance (14.5% lower than company-wide rating), 4.6 out of 5 for diversity and inclusion (11.5% higher t
How is the work culture at Dominion Energy in Columbia?Employees in Columbia have rated Dominion Energy with 3.2 out of 5 for work-life-balance (14.5% lower than company-wide rating), 4.6 out of 5 for diversity and inclusion (11.5% higher t
Sources: Finnhub insider data · Brave Search (Glassdoor, Indeed, Comparably, news) · Earnings surprise data from analyst forecasts · Qualitative signals are directional only.
⚖️ DDM Verdict: Hold — Dominion Energy Inc. (D)
Current price: $62.50 | Analyst Avg PT: $65.69
$50
🔴 Bear
$60
📊 Base
$68
🚀 Bull
| Tier | Price | Action |
|---|---|---|
| Tier 1 — Starter | ≤$58 | Begin position |
| Tier 2 — Add | ≤$55 | Add on weakness |
| Tier 3 — Full | ≤$52 | Full allocation |
| Sell Alert | ≥$68 | Above fair value — consider trimming |
How tiers are set: Tier 1 = Base IV × 0.92 (8% discount to base case). Tier 2 = midpoint of Bear & Base IV (building on meaningful weakness). Tier 3 = Bear IV × 1.05 (just above worst-case — maximum margin of safety). Sell alert = Bull IV × 0.85 (15% discount to bull case — above fair value range).
Verdict: Hold. At $62.50, D trades near base-case fair value with a 4.3% dividend yield and 5-6% EPS growth. The stock is fairly valued for a regulated utility — the 7-9% rate base growth is already priced in. Hold for income and steady growth; add on dips below $55 if CVOW execution concerns create dislocation.
🔧 Model Notes & Calibration
3-Stage DDM using DPS of $2.67 as base ($0.6675 quarterly). D is a regulated electric utility post-restructuring (sold gas distribution in 2024). Ke = 7.67% (CAPM: Rf 4.25% + β 0.622 × ERP 5.5%). Stage 1 growth 5% reflects management EPS growth guidance (~6% from rate base growth at Virginia Electric). Stage 2 fades to 3%. Terminal 2.5%. Key risk: CVOW (Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind) is a $10B+ capex project with execution risk. Rate base growth of 7-9% is strong for a utility, driven by offshore wind and grid modernization. Revenue appears to drop sharply in 2024/2025 due to the gas distribution divestiture — this is structural, not a decline. Use post-restructuring financials for comparability.
Bore Family Office • Analysis generated by Lurch • Not investment advice.