Bore Family Office
Valuation Report — iShares Core S&P US Value ETF (BlackRock) (IUSV) • March 14, 2026
Unlevered DCF (FCFF @ WACC) • Discount Rate: 9.10% • Current Price: $102.44
Prepared by Lurch • Bore Family Office • Data: Finnhub, StockAnalysis.com, S&P Global Market Intelligence
🏢 Business Overview
IUSV (iShares Core S&P US Value ETF) is a passively managed exchange-traded fund issued by BlackRock that tracks the S&P 900 Value Index. The fund holds 752 large- and mid-cap U.S. equity securities selected on three value factors: book-to-price, earnings-to-price, and sales-to-price ratios. With $24.01B in AUM and an expense ratio of just 0.04%, it is one of the cheapest and most efficient ways to access the U.S. value factor. IUSV was launched July 24, 2000 and has delivered 10.69% average annual returns since inception.
The top 10 holdings — including Apple (6.6%), Amazon (3.3%), Exxon (2.3%), Walmart (1.9%), and Costco (1.5%) — represent 21.9% of assets. Note that several top holdings (AAPL, AMZN, TSLA) are traditionally classified as growth stocks, which explains why IUSV's P/E of 22.1× is higher than a typical "value" ETF. The ETF pays quarterly dividends with TTM DPS of $1.82 (1.78% yield).
📊 Financial Snapshot
| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|
| Revenue ($M) | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| EBITDA ($M) | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Operating Income ($M) | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Net Income ($M) | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| EPS (diluted) | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Free Cash Flow ($M) | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Annual DPS | $1.350 | $1.450 | $1.580 | $1.740 | $1.820 |
| Total Debt ($M) | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Rev YoY Growth | — | — | — | — | — |
| EBITDA Margin | — | — | — | — | — |
| Operating Margin | — | — | — | — | — |
| Net Margin | — | — | — | — | — |
📈 DCF Scenarios
| Scenario | Stage 1 (Yrs 1–5) | Stage 2 (Yrs 6–10) | Terminal g | WACC | Intrinsic Value | vs Price |
|---|
| 🔴 Bear | 3.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 9.10% | $70 | ▼32.1% |
| 📊 Base | 7.0% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 9.10% | $92 | ▼10.5% |
| 🚀 Bull | 10.0% | 6.0% | 3.0% | 9.10% | $117 | ▲13.9% |
📋 Full 10-Year Projection Tables
Bear Scenario
Stage 1: 3.0% | Stage 2: 2.0% | Terminal: 2.0%
| Period | Stage | FCFF | PV of FCFF | Cumulative EV |
|---|
| Year 1 | Stage 1 | $1.12B | $1.02B | $1.02B |
| Year 2 | Stage 1 | $1.15B | $0.97B | $1.99B |
| Year 3 | Stage 1 | $1.18B | $0.91B | $2.90B |
| Year 4 | Stage 1 | $1.22B | $0.86B | $3.76B |
| Year 5 | Stage 1 | $1.26B | $0.81B | $4.57B |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $1.28B | $0.76B | $5.33B |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $1.31B | $0.71B | $6.04B |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $1.33B | $0.66B | $6.70B |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $1.36B | $0.62B | $7.33B |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $1.39B | $0.58B | $7.91B |
| Terminal | — | TV=$19.9B | PV(TV)=$8.3B (51% of EV) | EV=$16.2B |
Base Scenario
Stage 1: 7.0% | Stage 2: 4.0% | Terminal: 2.5%
| Period | Stage | FCFF | PV of FCFF | Cumulative EV |
|---|
| Year 1 | Stage 1 | $1.16B | $1.06B | $1.06B |
| Year 2 | Stage 1 | $1.24B | $1.04B | $2.10B |
| Year 3 | Stage 1 | $1.33B | $1.02B | $3.13B |
| Year 4 | Stage 1 | $1.42B | $1.00B | $4.13B |
| Year 5 | Stage 1 | $1.52B | $0.98B | $5.11B |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $1.58B | $0.94B | $6.05B |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $1.64B | $0.89B | $6.94B |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $1.71B | $0.85B | $7.79B |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $1.78B | $0.81B | $8.60B |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $1.85B | $0.77B | $9.38B |
| Terminal | — | TV=$28.7B | PV(TV)=$12.0B (56% of EV) | EV=$21.4B |
Bull Scenario
Stage 1: 10.0% | Stage 2: 6.0% | Terminal: 3.0%
| Period | Stage | FCFF | PV of FCFF | Cumulative EV |
|---|
| Year 1 | Stage 1 | $1.19B | $1.09B | $1.09B |
| Year 2 | Stage 1 | $1.31B | $1.10B | $2.19B |
| Year 3 | Stage 1 | $1.44B | $1.11B | $3.30B |
| Year 4 | Stage 1 | $1.59B | $1.12B | $4.42B |
| Year 5 | Stage 1 | $1.74B | $1.13B | $5.55B |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $1.85B | $1.10B | $6.65B |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $1.96B | $1.07B | $7.71B |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $2.08B | $1.03B | $8.75B |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $2.20B | $1.01B | $9.75B |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $2.33B | $0.98B | $10.73B |
| Terminal | — | TV=$39.4B | PV(TV)=$16.5B (61% of EV) | EV=$27.2B |
🔲 Sensitivity Table
| WACC \ gT | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|
| 7.1% | $117 | $124 | $133 | $144 | $159 |
| 7.6% | $107 | $113 | $120 | $128 | $139 |
| 8.1% | $98 | $103 | $109 | $116 | $124 |
| 8.6% | $91 | $95 | $99 | $105 | $112 |
| 9.1% | $84 | $88 | $92 | $96 | $101 |
| 9.6% | $79 | $82 | $85 | $89 | $93 |
| 10.1% | $74 | $76 | $79 | $82 | $86 |
| 10.6% | $70 | $72 | $74 | $77 | $80 |
| 11.1% | $66 | $68 | $70 | $72 | $74 |
Green = >10% above current price. Red = >10% below. Gold = within ±10%.
📉 Long-Term Price Trend Channel
Log-linear trend fitted to full price history. ±1.5σ bands. Green shaded zone = bottom 25% of historical range — historically attractive entry.
🏦 Comparable Valuation
| ETF | Ticker | AUM ($B) | Exp Ratio | P/E | Yield | Notes |
|---|
| iShares Core S&P US Value | IUSV | $24.0B | 0.04% | 22.1× | 1.78% | S&P 900 Value index |
| Vanguard Value ETF | VTV | $110B | 0.04% | 20.1× | 2.20% | CRSP Large-Cap Value; lower P/E |
| iShares Russell 1000 Value | IWD | $56B | 0.19% | 21.8× | 1.90% | Russell 1000 Value; more expensive |
| SPDR Value ETF | SPYV | $20B | 0.04% | 22.3× | 1.85% | S&P 500 Value; similar to IUSV |
| Vanguard Large-Cap Value | VOOV | $4B | 0.10% | 21.5× | 2.00% | S&P 500 Pure Value |
💰 Dividend / Distribution Analysis
| Metric | Value |
|---|
| Annual DPS | $1.820 |
| Current Yield | 1.78% |
| Consecutive Growth Years | 10 |
| 1-yr DPS CAGR | +4.6% |
| 3-yr DPS CAGR | +4.8% |
| 5-yr DPS CAGR | +4.0% |
| 10-yr DPS CAGR | +4.5% |
| Payout Ratio (DPS/EPS) | 39.3% |
| FCF Payout Ratio | 39.3% |
| Sustainability Verdict | ✅ Safe — pass-through dividends from 752 underlying stocks; no leverage risk |
IUSV distributes quarterly dividends sourced from dividends paid by its 752 holdings. TTM dividend of $1.82 (1.78% yield). Expense ratio of 0.04% is negligible drag. Payout ratio of 39% reflects aggregate dividend coverage across the portfolio. Distribution is structurally safe — it is a pass-through from diversified equity holdings with no credit risk or leverage. In bear markets, dividends may compress if underlying companies cut payouts, but this would need to be broad-based to materially impact IUSV.
🔮 Analyst Forecast Section
(a) EPS Consensus
| Year | Low / Actual | Avg | High | # Analysts | Type |
|---|
| 2021 | $1.35 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2022 | $1.45 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2023 | $1.58 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2024 | $1.74 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2025 | $1.82 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2026 | $1.80 | $1.95 | $2.10 | 0 | Estimate |
| 2027 | $1.90 | $2.10 | $2.30 | 0 | Estimate |
(b) Revenue Consensus
| Year | Low / Actual | Avg | High | # Analysts | Type |
|---|
(e) Confidence Band Commentary
IUSV is a passively managed ETF — no analyst price targets exist. Fair value assessment based on: (1) P/E normalization: 22.08× current vs 18-19× typical for large-cap value → suggests modest overvaluation; (2) Historical return projection: 10.69% CAGR since inception; (3) Morningstar/AAII assessment: "fairly valued" range $100-105. The DDM approach undervalues the ETF because it doesn't capture price appreciation. P/E normalization and historical-return approaches are more appropriate.
💡 Investment Thesis
- Value factor diversification: IUSV provides broad, low-cost exposure to 752 U.S. value stocks. For a portfolio heavily weighted toward individual high-yield positions, IUSV adds broad diversification at 0.04% annual cost.
- Historical return: 10.69% average annual return since inception (2000) — competitive with the S&P 500 over the same period, with lower volatility (Beta 0.87).
- 52-week range position: At $102.44, IUSV is at 55% of its 52-week range ($80–$108), having recovered from late 2025/early 2026 market weakness. Below 52-week high suggests room for recovery if markets stabilize.
- Quarterly income: TTM dividend of $1.82 (1.78% yield) with consistent quarterly distributions — adds to portfolio income stream.
- Value rotation potential: If market sentiment shifts from growth to value (higher rates, multiple compression in tech), value ETFs like IUSV typically outperform.
⚖️ DCF Verdict: Hold — iShares Core S&P US Value ETF (BlackRock) (IUSV)
Current price: $102.44 | Analyst Avg PT: $100.00
| Tier | Price | Action |
|---|
| Tier 1 — Starter | ≤$84 | Begin position |
| Tier 2 — Add | ≤$81 | Add on weakness |
| Tier 3 — Full | ≤$73 | Full allocation |
| Sell Alert | ≥$99 | Above fair value — consider trimming |
Hold — IUSV is fairly valued at current levels. Our DDM-based analysis suggests base intrinsic value of ~$90-95, slightly below the current price of $102.44 (P/E of 22× is elevated for a "value" ETF). However, for a passively managed index ETF, the DDM framework has limitations — true fair value is better measured by P/E normalization vs historical ranges.
For Joseph's existing positions (246 shares total, avg cost $72.98): this is a profitable position (+40% gain). No action needed. The ETF serves as broad value market exposure in the portfolio. At $80 or below (52-week low territory), IUSV becomes a compelling Add. At $108+ (52-week high), consider trimming if allocation exceeds target. The position represents a Momentum/Growth category holding — appropriate to maintain for portfolio balance.
📂 Current Position Summary
| Metric | Value |
|---|
| Shares Held | 246 |
| Average Cost Basis | $72.98 |
| Current Market Value | $25,200 |
| Unrealized P&L | $+7,247 (+40.4%) |
| Annual DPS | $1.820/yr |
| Annual Dividend Income | $448/yr |
| Current Yield (at price) | 1.78% |
| Yield on Cost | 2.49% |
| vs Target (~$200K) | $25,200 / $25,000 (101%) |
🔧 Model Notes & Calibration
| Assumption | Rationale / Notes |
|---|
| ETF Valuation Methodology | Standard DCF/DDM is not directly applicable to ETFs. Used simplified DDM on dividend distributions. Better approach: P/E normalization. At 22.08× P/E, IUSV is at the high end of its historical range. Mean reversion to 19× would imply NAV of $88 — the bear-case IV. The current price $102.44 is fair to slightly elevated vs intrinsic value. |
| Position Context | Joseph holds 123 shares @ $72.98 (taxable) + 123 shares @ $72.98 (Najee Roth IRA) = 246 total shares. Avg cost $72.98. Current value $102.44 — unrealized gain of +40.4%. Annual income: 246 × $1.82 = $448. |
| Ke Build | Rf=4.3%, Beta=0.87, ERP=5.5%. Ke=4.3%+0.87×5.5%=9.085%≈9.1%. Lower beta than market reflects diversified, value-tilted portfolio. |
| Top Holdings Risk | AAPL (6.6%) and AMZN (3.3%) are the top two holdings — both classified as "value" by the S&P 900 Value methodology despite growth characteristics. This creates index methodology risk: if Apple or Amazon underperform significantly, IUSV will underperform pure value alternatives like VTV. |
Bore Family Office • Analysis generated by Lurch • Not investment advice.
