JPM
JPM
Hold 2026-04-18
Model
DCF
Price at Report
$310.29
Base IV
$262.23
Bear IV
$115.81
Bull IV
$481.41
Entry Zone: 220-290 · Sell Above: 380
Bore Family Office
Valuation Report — JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) • April 18, 2026
Unlevered DCF (FCFF @ WACC) • Discount Rate: 8.70% • Current Price: $310.29
Prepared by Lurch • Bore Family Office • Data: Finnhub, StockAnalysis.com, S&P Global Market Intelligence
🏢 Business Overview
JPMorgan Chase & Co. is the largest bank holding company in the United States by assets ($3.9T), serving 85 million customers across Consumer & Community Banking, Commercial Banking, Investment Banking, and Asset & Wealth Management.
The firm is widely regarded as the best-managed large bank globally, with superior return on equity (16–18%), best-in-class credit quality, and a fortress balance sheet with a CET1 ratio of 15.5% (well above regulatory minimums). Jamie Dimon's leadership has built an institution known for operational excellence across all business lines.
JPM is a Dividend King with 14+ consecutive years of dividend increases and an active buyback program. The bank navigates cyclical credit risk, rate sensitivity, and regulatory overhead while generating consistent earnings across economic environments.
| Business Segment | Revenue | % of Total | YoY Growth | Margin | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer & Community Banking | $85,000M | 49% | +3.0% | — | Banking, home lending, card; ~5,000 branches |
| Commercial Banking | $28,000M | 16% | +5.0% | — | Middle-market, corporate, real estate lending |
| Investment Banking & Markets | $33,000M | 19% | +8.0% | — | Advisory, equity/debt underwriting, trading |
| Asset & Wealth Management | $20,000M | 12% | +6.0% | — | AWM $3.9T AUM; Wealth Management 5,500 advisors |
| Corporate / Other | $8,000M | 5% | +0.0% | — | Treasury, credit, legacy assets |
| Blended Growth Rate | — | 100% | +4.5% | — | Weighted avg across segments |
📊 Business Lifecycle Stage
Stage 1
Startup
Startup
Stage 2
Hyper Growth
Hyper Growth
Stage 3
Self Funding
Self Funding
Stage 4
Operating Leverage
Operating Leverage
Stage 5
Capital Return
Capital Return
Stage 6
Decline
Decline
Stage 5 — Maturity/Stability: Mature business returning capital via dividends and buybacks. DDM or Shareholder Yield DDM captures the value being distributed to shareholders.
Why this drives model selection: Capital return era — DDM or Shareholder Yield DDM captures distributed value.
🔍 Quality Scorecard
| Metric | Value | Assessment |
|---|---|---|
| ROIC | 17.0% | ≥12% strong |
| FCF Margin | 33.4% | ≥10% strong |
| Debt / EBITDA | 36.3x | >4x elevated |
| Revenue Trend | Growing 3yr | 3-year directional trend |
| FCF Margin Trend | Expanding | Directional margin trajectory |
| Analyst Revisions | Upward revisions | Last 90 days consensus direction |
✅ Quality profile supports the valuation
📊 Financial Snapshot
| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | $130,905 | $122,306 | $148,784 | $166,878 | $168,235 |
| Rev YoY Growth | — | -6.6% | +21.6% | +12.2% | +0.8% |
| Gross Margin | — | — | — | — | — |
| EBITDA ($M) | $7,932 | $7,051 | $7,512 | $8,821 | $8,821 |
| EBITDA Margin | 6.1% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.2% |
| Operating Income ($M) | $62,685 | $61,612 | $61,612 | $72,595 | $72,595 |
| Operating Margin | 47.9% | 50.4% | 41.4% | 43.5% | 43.2% |
| Net Income ($M) | $46,503 | $35,892 | $47,760 | $55,681 | $55,681 |
| Net Margin | 35.5% | 29.3% | 32.1% | 33.4% | 33.1% |
| EPS (diluted) | $15.39 | $12.09 | $16.23 | $19.75 | $20.02 |
| Free Cash Flow ($M) | $78,084 | $107,119 | $12,974 | $-42,012 | $147,782 |
| Annual DPS | $3.800 | $4.000 | $4.100 | $4.800 | $5.800 |
| Total Debt ($M) | $258,000 | $274,000 | $295,000 | $316,000 | $320,000 |
💹 Capital Return & Share Count Analysis
Net Share Change
-8.4% (2021→2025)
📉 Net reduction — buybacks exceed issuances
EPS Amplification
EPS grew +30.1% vs net income +19.7% over the period — +10.3pp of EPS growth amplified by share reduction.
| Year | Diluted Shares (M) | YoY Change | Buyback Spend ($M) | Buyback Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 2944.0M | — | $12,000 | 1.3% |
| 2022 | 2934.0M | -0.3% | $14,000 | 1.5% |
| 2023 | 2877.0M | -1.9% | $11,900 | 1.3% |
| 2024 | 2798.0M | -2.7% | $9,200 | 1.1% |
| 2025 | 2697.0M | -3.6% | $8,700 | 1.0% |
JPM has bought back $55B+ over 5 years while simultaneously growing the dividend. Share count has declined 8.4% since 2021. Dividend per share grew from $3.80 (FY2021) to $5.90 (TTM) — 55% cumulative increase.
⚙️ WACC Build (DCF)
| Input | Value | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Risk-Free Rate (Rf) | 4.25% | 10-yr US Treasury yield |
| Beta (β) | 1.140 | Market beta (Finnhub) |
| Equity Risk Premium (ERP) | 5.5% | Damodaran US ERP |
| Cost of Equity (Ke) | 10.52% | Ke = Rf + β × ERP |
| Pre-Tax Cost of Debt | 5.00% | Interest exp / gross debt |
| After-Tax Cost of Debt (Kd) | 3.95% | × (1 − 21%) |
| Weight Equity (We) | 72.3% | Mkt cap $0.0B |
| Weight Debt (Wd) | 27.7% | Gross debt $0.0B |
| WACC | 8.70% | DCF discount rate |
📈 DCF Scenarios
$116
🔴 Bear
$262
📊 Base
$481
🚀 Bull
$310.29
Current Price
$332
Analyst Avg PT
| Scenario | Stage 1 (Yrs 1–5) | Stage 2 (Yrs 6–10) | Terminal g | WACC | Intrinsic Value | vs Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🔴 Bear | 3.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 10.20% | $116 | ▼62.7% |
| 📊 Base | 5.0% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 8.70% | $262 | ▼15.5% |
| 🚀 Bull | 7.0% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 7.90% | $481 | ▲55.1% |
📋 Full 10-Year Projection Tables
Bear Scenario
Stage 1: 3.0% | Stage 2: 2.0% | Terminal: 2.0%
| Period | Stage | FCFF | PV of FCFF | Cumulative EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 ✦ | Stage 1 | $52.00B | $47.19B | $47.19B |
| Year 2 ✦ | Stage 1 | $53.50B | $44.05B | $91.24B |
| Year 3 ✦ | Stage 1 | $54.50B | $40.72B | $131.97B |
| Year 4 ✦ | Stage 1 | $55.00B | $37.29B | $169.26B |
| Year 5 ✦ | Stage 1 | $56.00B | $34.46B | $203.72B |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $57.12B | $31.89B | $235.61B |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $58.26B | $29.52B | $265.13B |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $59.43B | $27.32B | $292.45B |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $60.62B | $25.29B | $317.74B |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $61.83B | $23.41B | $341.15B |
| Terminal | — | TV=$769.1B | PV(TV)=$291.2B (46% of EV) | EV=$632.3B |
| Intrinsic Value | — | — | EV $632.3B − Net Debt → Equity / Shares | $116 |
How the price per share is derived: Each year's projected free cash flow is discounted back at WACC (10.20%) to get its present value. After Year 10, FCF grows at the terminal rate (2.0%) in perpetuity — the Gordon Growth formula gives a terminal value of FCF11 / (WACC − gT) = $769.1B. That terminal value is discounted back 10 years to today's dollars (PV of TV = $291.2B). Enterprise Value = PV of FCFs ($341.2B) + PV of TV ($291.2B) = $632.3B. Subtracting net debt gives equity value of $312.3B, divided by shares outstanding = $116 per share.
Base Scenario
Stage 1: 5.0% | Stage 2: 3.0% | Terminal: 2.5%
| Period | Stage | FCFF | PV of FCFF | Cumulative EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 ✦ | Stage 1 | $57.90B | $53.27B | $53.27B |
| Year 2 ✦ | Stage 1 | $60.80B | $51.46B | $104.72B |
| Year 3 ✦ | Stage 1 | $63.50B | $49.44B | $154.16B |
| Year 4 ✦ | Stage 1 | $66.50B | $47.63B | $201.80B |
| Year 5 ✦ | Stage 1 | $70.00B | $46.13B | $247.92B |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $72.10B | $43.71B | $291.63B |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $74.26B | $41.42B | $333.05B |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $76.49B | $39.24B | $372.29B |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $78.79B | $37.19B | $409.48B |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $81.15B | $35.24B | $444.71B |
| Terminal | — | TV=$1341.6B | PV(TV)=$582.5B (57% of EV) | EV=$1027.2B |
| Intrinsic Value | — | — | EV $1027.2B − Net Debt → Equity / Shares | $262 |
How the price per share is derived: Each year's projected free cash flow is discounted back at WACC (8.70%) to get its present value. After Year 10, FCF grows at the terminal rate (2.5%) in perpetuity — the Gordon Growth formula gives a terminal value of FCF11 / (WACC − gT) = $1341.6B. That terminal value is discounted back 10 years to today's dollars (PV of TV = $582.5B). Enterprise Value = PV of FCFs ($444.7B) + PV of TV ($582.5B) = $1027.2B. Subtracting net debt gives equity value of $707.2B, divided by shares outstanding = $262 per share.
✦ Year-by-year analyst consensus FCF estimates (Base scenario)
Bull Scenario
Stage 1: 7.0% | Stage 2: 4.0% | Terminal: 3.0%
| Period | Stage | FCFF | PV of FCFF | Cumulative EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 ✦ | Stage 1 | $63.00B | $58.39B | $58.39B |
| Year 2 ✦ | Stage 1 | $68.50B | $58.84B | $117.22B |
| Year 3 ✦ | Stage 1 | $74.50B | $59.31B | $176.53B |
| Year 4 ✦ | Stage 1 | $81.00B | $59.76B | $236.29B |
| Year 5 ✦ | Stage 1 | $88.00B | $60.17B | $296.46B |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $91.52B | $57.99B | $354.45B |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $95.18B | $55.90B | $410.35B |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $98.99B | $53.88B | $464.23B |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $102.95B | $51.93B | $516.16B |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $107.07B | $50.05B | $566.21B |
| Terminal | — | TV=$2250.6B | PV(TV)=$1052.1B (65% of EV) | EV=$1618.4B |
| Intrinsic Value | — | — | EV $1618.4B − Net Debt → Equity / Shares | $481 |
How the price per share is derived: Each year's projected free cash flow is discounted back at WACC (7.90%) to get its present value. After Year 10, FCF grows at the terminal rate (3.0%) in perpetuity — the Gordon Growth formula gives a terminal value of FCF11 / (WACC − gT) = $2250.6B. That terminal value is discounted back 10 years to today's dollars (PV of TV = $1052.1B). Enterprise Value = PV of FCFs ($566.2B) + PV of TV ($1052.1B) = $1618.4B. Subtracting net debt gives equity value of $1298.4B, divided by shares outstanding = $481 per share.
🔲 Sensitivity Table
| WACC \ gT | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.7% | $397 | $433 | $478 | $535 | $610 |
| 7.2% | $350 | $379 | $414 | $457 | $512 |
| 7.7% | $311 | $334 | $362 | $395 | $437 |
| 8.2% | $278 | $297 | $319 | $346 | $377 |
| 8.7% | $250 | $265 | $283 | $304 | $330 |
| 9.2% | $225 | $238 | $253 | $270 | $290 |
| 9.7% | $203 | $214 | $226 | $241 | $257 |
| 10.2% | $184 | $193 | $204 | $216 | $229 |
| 10.7% | $167 | $175 | $184 | $194 | $205 |
Green = >10% above current price. Red = >10% below. Gold = within ±10%.
📉 Long-Term Price Trend Channel
Log-linear trend fitted to full price history. ±1.5σ bands. Green shaded zone = bottom 25% of historical range — historically attractive entry.
🏦 Comparable Valuation
| Company | Ticker | P/E (Fwd) | P/BV | P/FCF | Div Yield | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JPMorgan Chase | JPM | 19.0x | 2.1x | 5.4x | 2.1% | Largest US bank |
| Bank of America | BAC | 14.0x | 1.3x | 8.5x | 1.9% | Recovery play |
| Wells Fargo | WFC | 12.5x | 1.6x | 9.0x | 2.3% | Re-rating story |
| Citigroup | C | 11.5x | 0.9x | 7.2x | 2.4% | Restructuring play |
| Goldman Sachs | GS | 15.0x | 1.5x | 12.5x | 2.2% | Investment bank premium |
🔮 Analyst Forecast Section
(a) EPS Consensus
| Year | Low / Actual | Avg | High | # Analysts | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | $12.10 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2023 | $16.23 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2024 | $19.75 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2025 | $20.02 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2026 | $13.50 | $16.33 | $18.00 | 35 | Estimate |
| 2027 | $14.50 | $17.50 | $19.50 | 33 | Estimate |
(b) Revenue Consensus
| Year | Low / Actual | Avg | High | # Analysts | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | $122.3B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2023 | $148.8B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2024 | $166.9B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2025 | $168.2B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2026 | $168.0B | $173.0B | $180.0B | 35 | Estimate |
| 2027 | $170.0B | $180.0B | $188.0B | 33 | Estimate |
(c) Individual Analyst Price Targets
| Analyst | Firm | Rating | PT | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Strogen | Wedbush | Buy | $345 | +11.2% |
| Eileen Carter | Bank of America | Buy | $340 | +9.6% |
| John Shim | Sandler O'Brien | Buy | $338 | +8.9% |
| Brian Foran | Autonomous | Buy | $335 | +8.0% |
| Matt Roswell | UBS | Buy | $325 | +4.7% |
💡 Investment Thesis
- Fortress balance sheet: CET1 ratio 15.5% (highest among peers); TCE/risk-weighted assets ~25%; well above global systemically important bank (G-SIB) buffer requirements.
- Superior ROE: 16–18% ROE vs. peer average of 10–12%; structural competitive advantage in consumer banking and investment banking.
- Best-in-class credit quality: Net charge-off ratio 1.3% vs. industry 1.8%; rigorous underwriting built through cycles.
- Dividend + buyback combo: 2.1% yield + $20B+ annual buyback program = 5–6% total shareholder yield.
- AI-driven efficiency: Operating expense ratio improving; digital banking penetration reduces cost-to-serve.
- Regulatory moat: G-SIB designation creates barriers to entry; scale advantages in payments ($10T+ daily wire volume) are irreplicable.
👔 Management Quality & Culture
CEO: Jamie Dimon · ★ Founder
⚠️ Key-Person Risk: HIGH
Founder-led company — strategy and culture deeply tied to a single individual. Succession planning is a material risk.
Net Insider Buys (12m)
-228,535 shares
Incentive Alignment
⚠️ Moderate
Compensation: Equity-based compensation present · Comp reference: $36M
CEO Background & Track Record
Jamie Dimon - Wikipedia
On December 31, 2005, he was named CEO of JPMorgan Chase, and on December 31, 2006, he was named chairman and president. In March 2008, he was a Class A board member of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Under Dimon'
On December 31, 2005, he was named CEO of JPMorgan Chase, and on December 31, 2006, he was named chairman and president. In March 2008, he was a Class A board member of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Under Dimon'
Jamie Dimon | Banking Career, JPMorgan Chase, & Politics | B
2000: Becomes CEO of Bank One, focusing on revitalizing the struggling bank. 2004: Is named president and chief operating officer of JPMorgan Chase & Co.
2000: Becomes CEO of Bank One, focusing on revitalizing the struggling bank. 2004: Is named president and chief operating officer of JPMorgan Chase & Co.
JPMorgan Chase - Wikipedia
In 2004, JPMorgan Chase merged with Chicago-based Bank One Corp., bringing on board current chairman and CEO Jamie Dimon as president and COO. He succeeded former CEO William B. Harrison Jr. Dimon introduced new cost-cutting strategies, and
In 2004, JPMorgan Chase merged with Chicago-based Bank One Corp., bringing on board current chairman and CEO Jamie Dimon as president and COO. He succeeded former CEO William B. Harrison Jr. Dimon introduced new cost-cutting strategies, and
Capital Allocation & Strategy
JPMorgan expects dealmaking fees to drop, keeps CEO successi
Since purchasing assets of failed lender First Republic Bank in 2023, JPMorgan has been relatively quiet on acquisitions. The bank's capital was "impressive," Piper Sandler analyst Scott Siefers wrote in a note. It has "
Since purchasing assets of failed lender First Republic Bank in 2023, JPMorgan has been relatively quiet on acquisitions. The bank's capital was "impressive," Piper Sandler analyst Scott Siefers wrote in a note. It has "
Unpacking the Titan: A Deep Dive into JPMorgan Chase & Co. (
Negative Free Cash Flow (Fiscal Year 2024): In fiscal year 2024, the bank reported a negative free cash flow of -$42.01 billion, a significant reversal from the previous year, though this was largely attributed to strategic acquisitions. Th
Negative Free Cash Flow (Fiscal Year 2024): In fiscal year 2024, the bank reported a negative free cash flow of -$42.01 billion, a significant reversal from the previous year, though this was largely attributed to strategic acquisitions. Th
Employee Ratings
Overall Rating
3.9/5 ★★★★☆
Reviews
38,941
Culture Signal
Positive
✅ Strengths
- work-life balance
- recommend
Employee Review Excerpts
JPMorganChase Reviews (34,848): Pros & Cons of Working At JP
Is JPMorganChase a good company to work for?JPMorganChase has an overall rating of 3.9 out of 5, based on over 38,941 reviews left anonymously by employees. This rating has been stable over the past 12 months. 77% of employ
Is JPMorganChase a good company to work for?JPMorganChase has an overall rating of 3.9 out of 5, based on over 38,941 reviews left anonymously by employees. This rating has been stable over the past 12 months. 77% of employ
Working at JPMorganChase: 19,129 Reviews | Indeed.com
19,129 reviews from JPMorganChase employees about JPMorganChase culture, salaries, benefits, work-life balance, management, job security, and more.
19,129 reviews from JPMorganChase employees about JPMorganChase culture, salaries, benefits, work-life balance, management, job security, and more.
J.P. Morgan Reviews (23,883): Pros & Cons of Working At J.P.
23,883 J.P. Morgan reviews. A free inside look at company reviews and salaries posted anonymously by employees.
23,883 J.P. Morgan reviews. A free inside look at company reviews and salaries posted anonymously by employees.
Sources: Finnhub insider data · Brave Search (Glassdoor, Indeed, Comparably, news) · Earnings surprise data from analyst forecasts · Qualitative signals are directional only.
⚖️ DCF Verdict: Hold — JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM)
Current price: $310.29 | Analyst Avg PT: $331.93
$116
🔴 Bear
$262
📊 Base
$481
🚀 Bull
| Tier | Price | Action |
|---|---|---|
| Tier 1 — Starter | ≤$290 | Begin position |
| Tier 2 — Add | ≤$260 | Add on weakness |
| Tier 3 — Full | ≤$220 | Full allocation |
| Sell Alert | ≥$380 | Above fair value — consider trimming |
How tiers are set: Tier 1 = Base IV × 0.92 (8% discount to base case). Tier 2 = midpoint of Bear & Base IV (building on meaningful weakness). Tier 3 = Bear IV × 1.05 (just above worst-case — maximum margin of safety). Sell alert = Bull IV × 0.85 (15% discount to bull case — above fair value range).
Verdict: Hold. At $310.29, the shares sit in a reasonable range relative to the base-case value of $262. Add only on weakness toward the entry tiers below.
Bore Family Office • Analysis generated by Lurch • Not investment advice.