OKLO
OKLO
Oklo Inc. (NYSE: OKLO) is an advanced fission company developing small modular reactors (SMRs) called Aurora Powerhouses, designed to provide clean, reliable, and affordable nuclear energy at scale. Each Aurora unit produces up to 75 MWe of electricity, with the ability to scale through multi-unit deployments.
Founded in 2013 by Jacob and Caroline DeWitte, Oklo went public via SPAC merger in May 2024. Sam Altman (OpenAI co-founder) served as Chairman before stepping down in April 2025 to pursue potential energy supply agreements between OpenAI and Oklo — a move that underscores the AI-nuclear convergence thesis.
Oklo has amassed approximately 14 GW of customer interest, anchored by a 12 GW non-binding Master Power Agreement with data center developer Switch (targeting deployment by 2044) and a 500 MW letter of intent with Equinix backed by a $25M pre-payment. In May 2026, Oklo received NRC site approval for its Aurora powerhouse — a critical regulatory milestone.
Critically, Oklo has zero revenue as of FY2025 — the company is pre-commercial, with first deployment expected in 2028-2029. Value is entirely driven by TAM potential, execution milestones, and the growing scarcity of clean baseload power for AI data centers.
| Business Segment | Revenue | % of Total | YoY Growth | Margin | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aurora SMR (future) | Pre-revenue | — | — | — | 75 MWe units; first deployment 2028-2029 |
| Nuclear Fuel Recycling | Pre-revenue | — | — | — | Proprietary HALEU fuel recycling technology |
| Data Center PPAs | Pre-revenue | — | — | — | 14 GW pipeline (Switch 12GW, Equinix 500MW+) |
Startup
Hyper Growth
Self Funding
Operating Leverage
Capital Return
Decline
Stage 1 — Startup: Early-stage with minimal revenue and widening losses. Value driven by TAM and growth potential, not current earnings. Use revenue multiple or TAM analysis.
Why this drives model selection: No earnings to discount — value on revenue multiple or TAM.
| Metric | Value | Assessment |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue Trend | n/a | 3-year directional trend |
| FCF Margin Trend | n/a | Directional margin trajectory |
| Analyst Revisions | Upward revisions | Last 90 days consensus direction |
| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Rev YoY Growth | — | — | — | — |
| Gross Margin | — | — | — | — |
| EBITDA ($M) | $-2 | $-19 | $-53 | $-139 |
| EBITDA Margin | — | — | — | — |
| Operating Income ($M) | $-2 | $-19 | $-53 | $-139 |
| Operating Margin | — | — | — | — |
| Net Income ($M) | $-4 | $-32 | $-74 | $-106 |
| Net Margin | — | — | — | — |
| EPS (diluted) | $-0.15 | $-0.47 | $-0.74 | $-0.72 |
| Free Cash Flow ($M) | $-1 | $-16 | $-39 | $-115 |
| Annual DPS | $0.000 | $0.000 | $0.000 | $0.000 |
| Total Debt ($M) | $0 | $0 | $1 | $1 |
| Year | Diluted Shares (M) | YoY Change | Buyback Spend ($M) | Buyback Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 68.3M | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 96.7M | +41.4% | — | — |
| 2024 | 99.7M | +3.1% | — | — |
| 2025 | 160.5M | +61.0% | — | — |
Oklo has significant share dilution — shares outstanding grew from 68M in 2022 to 161M in 2025 (diluted), a 135% increase. The SPAC merger in 2024 and subsequent capital raises drove most of this dilution. No buybacks are expected until the company achieves commercial deployment and positive cash flow. Future dilution is a key risk — the company will need additional capital to fund reactor construction before PPAs generate revenue.
| Input | Value | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Risk-Free Rate (Rf) | 4.25% | 10-yr US Treasury yield |
| Beta (β) | 1.200 | Market beta (Finnhub) |
| Equity Risk Premium (ERP) | 5.5% | Damodaran US ERP |
| Cost of Equity (Ke) | 10.85% | Ke = Rf + β × ERP |
| Scenario | Stage 1 (Yrs 1–5) | Stage 2 (Yrs 6–10) | Terminal g | WACC | Intrinsic Value | vs Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🔴 Bear | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.0% | 10.85% | $28 | ▼60.9% |
| 📊 Base | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.0% | 10.85% | $129 | ▲80.1% |
| 🚀 Bull | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.5% | 10.85% | $266 | ▲269.9% |
| Period | Stage | FCFF | PV of FCFF | Cumulative EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 ✦ | Stage 1 | $-0.13B | $-0.12B | $-0.12B |
| Year 2 ✦ | Stage 1 | $-0.15B | $-0.12B | $-0.24B |
| Year 3 ✦ | Stage 1 | $-0.10B | $-0.07B | $-0.31B |
| Year 4 ✦ | Stage 1 | $0.20B | $0.13B | $-0.18B |
| Year 5 ✦ | Stage 1 | $0.50B | $0.30B | $0.12B |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $0.50B | $0.27B | $0.39B |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $0.50B | $0.24B | $0.63B |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $0.50B | $0.22B | $0.85B |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $0.50B | $0.20B | $1.05B |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $0.50B | $0.18B | $1.23B |
| Terminal | — | TV=$5.8B | PV(TV)=$2.1B (63% of EV) | EV=$3.3B |
| Intrinsic Value | — | — | EV $3.3B − Net Debt → Equity / Shares | $28 |
| Period | Stage | FCFF | PV of FCFF | Cumulative EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 ✦ | Stage 1 | $-0.14B | $-0.13B | $-0.13B |
| Year 2 ✦ | Stage 1 | $-0.12B | $-0.10B | $-0.22B |
| Year 3 ✦ | Stage 1 | $0.30B | $0.22B | $-0.00B |
| Year 4 ✦ | Stage 1 | $1.20B | $0.79B | $0.79B |
| Year 5 ✦ | Stage 1 | $2.50B | $1.49B | $2.28B |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $2.50B | $1.35B | $3.63B |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $2.50B | $1.22B | $4.85B |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $2.50B | $1.10B | $5.94B |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $2.50B | $0.99B | $6.93B |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $2.50B | $0.89B | $7.83B |
| Terminal | — | TV=$32.8B | PV(TV)=$11.7B (60% of EV) | EV=$19.5B |
| Intrinsic Value | — | — | EV $19.5B − Net Debt → Equity / Shares | $129 |
| Period | Stage | FCFF | PV of FCFF | Cumulative EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 ✦ | Stage 1 | $-0.12B | $-0.11B | $-0.11B |
| Year 2 ✦ | Stage 1 | $0.10B | $0.08B | $-0.03B |
| Year 3 ✦ | Stage 1 | $0.80B | $0.59B | $0.56B |
| Year 4 ✦ | Stage 1 | $2.50B | $1.66B | $2.22B |
| Year 5 ✦ | Stage 1 | $5.00B | $2.99B | $5.20B |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $5.00B | $2.69B | $7.90B |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $5.00B | $2.43B | $10.33B |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $5.00B | $2.19B | $12.52B |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $5.00B | $1.98B | $14.50B |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $5.00B | $1.78B | $16.29B |
| Terminal | — | TV=$70.4B | PV(TV)=$25.1B (61% of EV) | EV=$41.4B |
| Intrinsic Value | — | — | EV $41.4B − Net Debt → Equity / Shares | $266 |
| WACC \ gT | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.8% | $-1 | $-1 | $-1 | $-2 | $-2 |
| 9.3% | $-0 | $-0 | $-1 | $-1 | $-1 |
| 9.9% | $0 | $0 | $0 | $-0 | $-1 |
| 10.3% | $1 | $1 | $0 | $0 | $-0 |
| 10.8% | $1 | $1 | $1 | $1 | $0 |
| 11.4% | $2 | $1 | $1 | $1 | $1 |
| 11.8% | $2 | $2 | $1 | $1 | $1 |
| 12.3% | $2 | $2 | $2 | $2 | $2 |
| 12.9% | $2 | $2 | $2 | $2 | $2 |
Green = >10% above current price. Red = >10% below. Gold = within ±10%.
| Year | Low / Actual | Avg | High | # Analysts | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | $-0.15 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2023 | $-0.47 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2024 | $-0.74 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2025 | $-0.72 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2026 | $-1.16 | $-0.79 | $-0.40 | 21 | Estimate |
| 2027 | $-1.25 | $-0.94 | $-0.43 | 21 | Estimate |
| Year | Low / Actual | Avg | High | # Analysts | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | $0.0B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2023 | $0.0B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2024 | $0.0B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2025 | $0.0B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2026 | $0.0B | $0.0B | $0.0B | 2 | Estimate |
| 2027 | $0.0B | $0.0B | $0.0B | 2 | Estimate |
| Analyst | Firm | Rating | PT | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ivan Feinseth | Tigress Financial | Strong Buy | $130 | +81.0% |
| Samantha Hoh | HSBC | Strong Buy | $96 | +33.6% |
| Ryan Pfingst | B. Riley Securities | Strong Buy | $92 | +28.1% |
| Brian Lee | Goldman Sachs | Hold | $65 | -9.5% |
| Jon Windham | UBS | Hold | $60 | -16.5% |
- AI data center power demand: The explosive growth of AI training and inference workloads requires 24/7 baseload clean power. Oklo's Aurora SMRs are purpose-built for data center co-location — small, modular, and deployable at the edge of demand.
- Massive customer pipeline: 14 GW of customer interest represents potential lifetime revenue of $100B+. The Switch 12 GW agreement (non-binding) and Equinix 500 MW LOI (with $25M pre-payment) validate commercial demand.
- NRC regulatory progress: Oklo received site approval for Idaho National Laboratory in May 2026 and is advancing combined license applications. This is one of the most advanced SMR licensing positions in the US.
- Sam Altman / OpenAI connection: Altman's prior role as Chairman and potential PPA discussions with OpenAI provide strategic credibility and a direct path to the most AI-power-hungry customer in the world.
- Nuclear capacity scarcity: The US hasn't built new nuclear capacity in decades. Existing nuclear fleet is being acquired by hyperscalers (Constellation/Microsoft). Oklo offers the only scalable new-build nuclear option for data centers.
Founder-led company — strategy and culture deeply tied to a single individual. Succession planning is a material risk.
Before co-founding Oklo Inc., Jacob DeWitte amassed nearly 15 years of experience in the nuclear technology sector.
· Experience: Oklo Inc · Education: Massachusetts Institute of Technology · Location: United States · 500+ connections on LinkedIn. View Jacob DeWitte’s profile on LinkedIn, a professional community ...
Oklo's CEO is Jacob Dewitte, appointed in May 2024, has a tenure of 1.92 years. total yearly compensation is $3.65M, comprised of 11.6% salary and 88.4% bonuses, including company stock and options. directly owns 12.16
- recommend
- micromanag
Aug 13, 2025 · Anonymous employee · Current employee, more than 1 year · Recommend · CEO approval · Business Outlook · Pros · great place to work so happy · Cons · no cons to report very happy · Show more · Sign in to see m
OKLO reviews · 4.0 · Jul 29, 2025 · Software engineer · Current employee, more than 3 years · Colombo, Western · Recommend · CEO approval · Business Outlook · Pros · This company team is very friendly — working with them feels effor
OKLO reviews · 5.0 · Feb 23, 2021 · Senior software engineer · Current employee, less than 1 year · Battaramulla · Recommend · CEO approval · Business Outlook · Pros · Friendly environment Flat hierarchy Good place to learn · Cons · Managem
| Tier | Price | Action |
|---|---|---|
| Tier 1 — Starter | ≤$119 | Begin position |
| Tier 2 — Add | ≤$79 | Add on weakness |
| Tier 3 — Full | ≤$27 | Full allocation |
| Sell Alert | ≥$226 | Above fair value — consider trimming |
Verdict: Reduce. Oklo is the most speculative nuclear-for-AI play — a pre-revenue company with 14 GW of customer pipeline but zero deployed capacity and no revenue. Our revenue multiple analysis suggests a wide fair value range of $35 (Bear) to $663 (Bull), with a base case of $226. At the current price of $72, OKLO trades at a significant premium to our base case, implying the market is pricing in successful execution and rapid deployment. The 135% share dilution over 3 years and rapidly expanding losses ($139M operating loss in FY2025 vs $53M in FY2024) are concerning. While the TAM thesis is compelling, the stock is priced for perfection with execution risk that could take 5+ years to play out. Reduce exposure; consider re-entering on significant weakness below $158 if NRC milestones advance on schedule.
| Assumption | Rationale / Notes |
|---|---|
| Pre-Revenue DCF | Oklo has zero revenue and negative FCF. The DCF model uses projected FCF estimates that turn positive in Years 4-5 (Bear) or Years 2-3 (Bull), reflecting first commercial deployment in 2028-2029. These projections are highly uncertain. |
| Revenue Multiple Approach | Primary valuation: Revenue Multiple on projected 2035 revenue. Bear: 1 GW deployed × $876M/GW × 5.0× multiple = $4.4B EV. Base: 5 GW × $876M/GW × 8.0× = $35.0B EV. Bull: 10 GW × $876M/GW × 12.0× = $105.1B EV. Net cash of $1.2B added to equity. |
| Lifecycle Stage: Startup | Stage 1 companies have minimal revenue and widening losses. Value is driven by TAM and growth potential, not current earnings. Revenue multiple or TAM analysis is more appropriate than traditional DCF/DDM. |
| Share Dilution Risk | Shares grew 135% (2022-2025) from 68M to 161M (diluted). Additional capital raises will be needed to fund reactor construction. Our per-share valuations assume ~161M shares but actual dilution could be 50-100% higher by 2035. |
| NRC Regulatory Risk | Nuclear licensing is a multi-year process. While Oklo received site approval for Idaho National Laboratory (May 2026), the combined license application process can take 3-5 years. Any delays or denials would be existential. |