PBF
PBF
Hold 2026-03-12
Model
DCF
Price at Report
$41.99
Base IV
$31.21
Bear IV
$17.49
Bull IV
$50.32
Entry Zone: 18-29 · Sell Above: 43
Bore Family Office
Valuation Report — PBF Energy (PBF) • March 12, 2026
Unlevered DCF (FCFF @ WACC) • Discount Rate: 9.80% • Current Price: $41.99
Prepared by Lurch • Bore Family Office • Data: Finnhub, StockAnalysis.com, S&P Global Market Intelligence
🏢 Business Overview
PBF Energy is one of the largest independent petroleum refiners and suppliers of unbranded transportation fuels, heating oil, petrochemical feedstocks, lubricants, and other petroleum products in the United States. The company operates six refineries across the East Coast, Gulf Coast, and West Coast with total throughput capacity of approximately 1,000,000 barrels per day, making it a top-5 U.S. refiner by capacity. PBF competes in a capital-intensive, highly cyclical industry where profitability is driven by crack spreads — the margin between crude oil input costs and refined product prices — which collapsed in 2024–2025 after the post-COVID surge.
| Business Segment | Revenue | % of Total | YoY Growth | Margin | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Refining | $29,332M | 100% | -11.4% | — | Single-segment refiner; 6 refineries, ~1 Mbpd capacity |
📊 Financial Snapshot
| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | $27,253 | $46,830 | $38,325 | $33,115 | $29,332 |
| EBITDA ($M) | $1,081 | $4,687 | $3,543 | $-56 | $609 |
| Operating Income ($M) | $597 | $4,153 | $2,952 | $-699 | $-54 |
| Net Income ($M) | $231 | $2,877 | $2,141 | $-534 | $-159 |
| EPS (diluted) | $1.90 | $22.84 | $16.52 | $-4.60 | $-1.39 |
| Free Cash Flow ($M) | $228 | $4,139 | $679 | $-348 | $-783 |
| Annual DPS | $0.000 | $0.200 | $0.850 | $1.025 | $1.100 |
| Total Debt ($M) | $5,002 | $2,630 | $2,032 | $2,303 | $2,902 |
| Rev YoY Growth | — | +71.8% | -18.2% | -13.6% | -11.4% |
⚙️ WACC Build (DCF)
| Input | Value | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Risk-Free Rate (Rf) | 4.30% | 10-yr US Treasury yield |
| Beta (β) | 1.400 | Market beta (Finnhub) |
| Equity Risk Premium (ERP) | 5.5% | Damodaran US ERP |
| Cost of Equity (Ke) | 12.05% | Ke = Rf + β × ERP |
| Pre-Tax Cost of Debt | 6.00% | Interest exp / gross debt |
| After-Tax Cost of Debt (Kd) | 4.10% | × (1 − 32%) |
| Weight Equity (We) | 72.0% | Mkt cap $0.0B |
| Weight Debt (Wd) | 28.0% | Gross debt $0.0B |
| WACC | 9.80% | DCF discount rate |
📈 DCF Scenarios
$17
🔴 Bear
$31
📊 Base
$50
🚀 Bull
$41.99
Current Price
$32
Analyst Avg PT
| Scenario | Stage 1 (Yrs 1–5) | Stage 2 (Yrs 6–10) | Terminal g | WACC | Intrinsic Value | vs Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🔴 Bear | -3.0% | 0.0% | 2.0% | 9.80% | $17 | ▼58.3% |
| 📊 Base | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 9.80% | $31 | ▼25.7% |
| 🚀 Bull | 7.0% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 9.80% | $50 | ▲19.8% |
📋 Full 10-Year Projection Tables
Bear Scenario
Stage 1: -3.0% | Stage 2: 0.0% | Terminal: 2.0%
| Period | Stage | FCFF | PV of FCFF | Cumulative EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | Stage 1 | $0.43B | $0.39B | $0.39B |
| Year 2 | Stage 1 | $0.41B | $0.34B | $0.73B |
| Year 3 | Stage 1 | $0.40B | $0.30B | $1.04B |
| Year 4 | Stage 1 | $0.39B | $0.27B | $1.30B |
| Year 5 | Stage 1 | $0.38B | $0.24B | $1.54B |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $0.38B | $0.22B | $1.76B |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $0.38B | $0.20B | $1.95B |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $0.38B | $0.18B | $2.13B |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $0.38B | $0.16B | $2.29B |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $0.38B | $0.15B | $2.44B |
| Terminal | — | TV=$4.9B | PV(TV)=$1.9B (44% of EV) | EV=$4.4B |
Base Scenario
Stage 1: 2.0% | Stage 2: 2.0% | Terminal: 2.5%
| Period | Stage | FCFF | PV of FCFF | Cumulative EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | Stage 1 | $0.45B | $0.41B | $0.41B |
| Year 2 | Stage 1 | $0.46B | $0.38B | $0.79B |
| Year 3 | Stage 1 | $0.47B | $0.35B | $1.14B |
| Year 4 | Stage 1 | $0.48B | $0.33B | $1.47B |
| Year 5 | Stage 1 | $0.49B | $0.30B | $1.77B |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $0.50B | $0.28B | $2.06B |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $0.51B | $0.26B | $2.32B |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $0.52B | $0.24B | $2.56B |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $0.53B | $0.23B | $2.79B |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $0.54B | $0.21B | $3.00B |
| Terminal | — | TV=$7.5B | PV(TV)=$3.0B (50% of EV) | EV=$6.0B |
Bull Scenario
Stage 1: 7.0% | Stage 2: 4.0% | Terminal: 3.0%
| Period | Stage | FCFF | PV of FCFF | Cumulative EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | Stage 1 | $0.47B | $0.43B | $0.43B |
| Year 2 | Stage 1 | $0.50B | $0.42B | $0.85B |
| Year 3 | Stage 1 | $0.54B | $0.41B | $1.25B |
| Year 4 | Stage 1 | $0.58B | $0.40B | $1.65B |
| Year 5 | Stage 1 | $0.62B | $0.39B | $2.04B |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $0.64B | $0.37B | $2.40B |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $0.67B | $0.35B | $2.75B |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $0.69B | $0.33B | $3.08B |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $0.72B | $0.31B | $3.39B |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $0.75B | $0.29B | $3.69B |
| Terminal | — | TV=$11.4B | PV(TV)=$4.5B (55% of EV) | EV=$8.2B |
🔲 Sensitivity Table
| WACC \ gT | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.8% | $43 | $47 | $51 | $55 | $61 |
| 8.3% | $39 | $41 | $44 | $48 | $53 |
| 8.8% | $35 | $37 | $39 | $42 | $46 |
| 9.3% | $31 | $33 | $35 | $37 | $40 |
| 9.8% | $28 | $29 | $31 | $33 | $36 |
| 10.3% | $25 | $26 | $28 | $30 | $32 |
| 10.8% | $23 | $24 | $25 | $26 | $28 |
| 11.3% | $20 | $21 | $22 | $24 | $25 |
| 11.8% | $18 | $19 | $20 | $21 | $22 |
Green = >10% above current price. Red = >10% below. Gold = within ±10%.
📉 Long-Term Price Trend Channel
Log-linear trend fitted to full price history. ±1.5σ bands. Green shaded zone = bottom 25% of historical range — historically attractive entry.
🏦 Comparable Valuation
| Company | Price | Fwd P/E | EV/EBITDA | P/FCF | Yield | Consensus |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PBF Energy | $42 | — | 2.1× | — | 4.5% | Hold |
| Valero (VLO) | $148 | 10.8× | 4.2× | 14× | 3.8% | Buy |
| Phillips 66 (PSX) | $129 | 12.1× | 5.1× | 11× | 3.3% | Hold |
| MPC (Marathon) | $158 | 8.5× | 4.8× | 12× | 3.0% | Buy |
| HF Sinclair (DINO) | $35 | 9.2× | 3.8× | 10× | 4.2% | Hold |
💰 Dividend / Distribution Analysis
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Annual DPS | $1.100 |
| Current Yield | 2.62% |
| Consecutive Growth Years | 3 |
| 1-yr DPS CAGR | +7.3% |
| 3-yr DPS CAGR | +0.0% |
| 5-yr DPS CAGR | +0.0% |
| 10-yr DPS CAGR | — |
| Payout Ratio (DPS/EPS) | 50.0% |
| FCF Payout Ratio | 50.0% |
| Sustainability Verdict | ⚠️ Watch |
Dividend covered by balance sheet ($528M cash) rather than current earnings. PBF has $1.10/sh ($126M total) annual obligation — manageable given $2.3B tangible asset base and revolving credit. However, if crack spreads remain at trough levels through 2027, dividend risk increases materially. Watch: maintain position, but do not rely on dividend growth in current environment.
🔮 Analyst Forecast Section
(a) EPS Consensus
| Year | Low / Actual | Avg | High | # Analysts | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $1.90 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2022 | $22.84 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2023 | $16.52 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2024 | $-4.60 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2025 | $-1.39 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2026 | $-0.33 | $1.09 | $2.93 | 15 | Estimate |
| 2027 | $-0.56 | $1.85 | $4.34 | 13 | Estimate |
(b) Revenue Consensus
| Year | Low / Actual | Avg | High | # Analysts | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $27.3B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2022 | $46.8B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2023 | $38.3B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2024 | $33.1B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2025 | $29.3B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2026 | $25.3B | $29.8B | $38.5B | 15 | Estimate |
| 2027 | $25.8B | $30.0B | $34.2B | 13 | Estimate |
(c) Individual Analyst Price Targets
Consensus: Avg $31.50 | Range $23–$42
| Analyst | Firm | Rating | PT | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Todd | Piper Sandler | Buy | $42 | +0.0% |
| Nitin Kumar | Mizuho | Hold | $38 | -9.5% |
| Vikram Bagri | Citigroup | Hold | $36 | -14.3% |
| Doug Leggate | Wolfe Research | Sell | $23 | -45.2% |
(d) Earnings Surprise History
| Quarter | EPS Act vs Est | EPS Beat/Miss | Rev Act vs Est | Rev Beat/Miss | Guidance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2025 | $-1.01 vs $-0.60 | $-0.41 ❌ | $6.8B vs $7.2B | $-0.4B ❌ | Lowered |
| Q2 2025 | $-0.58 vs $-0.20 | $-0.38 ❌ | $7.4B vs $8.4B | $-1.0B ❌ | Lowered |
| Q3 2025 | $-0.75 vs $-0.43 | $-0.32 ❌ | $6.8B vs $7.1B | $-0.3B ❌ | Lowered |
| Q4 2025 | $0.12 vs $-0.35 | +$0.47 ✅ | $7.5B vs $7.1B | +$0.4B ✅ | Neutral |
(e) Confidence Band Commentary
Wide analyst PT range ($23–$42) reflects inherent cyclical uncertainty in refining. Three consecutive EPS misses in 2025 driven by historically weak crack spreads. Q4 2025 beat signals potential inflection but is a single data point — too early to confirm trend. Analyst EPS range for 2026 spans from loss to $2.93 — an unusually wide band indicating the primary debate is crack spread trajectory, not company execution.
💡 Investment Thesis
- Mid-cycle recovery: FY2024–2025 crack spread compression is cyclical, not structural. Historical mid-cycle crack spreads of $20–25/bbl imply normalized EBITDA of $1.5–2B vs. near-zero in 2025.
- Valuation floor: PBF trades near book value ($46/sh) and at a discount to replacement cost for its refinery assets (~$13B tangible asset base), offering downside protection.
- Capital return program: $1.10/sh annual dividend (2.6% yield) + buybacks (1.9% yield) = 4.5% total shareholder yield even during the trough; balance sheet leverage manageable at 0.4× net debt/book equity.
- IMO / renewable fuels optionality: Marine fuel demand and renewable diesel capacity create incremental margin opportunities as the company adjusts its refinery slate.
- Bear case is priced in: Street consensus is Hold at $31.50 vs. current $42 — the stock already reflects subdued crack spread expectations; any normalization is upside.
⚖️ DCF Verdict: Hold — PBF Energy (PBF)
Current price: $41.99 | Analyst Avg PT: $31.50
$17
🔴 Bear
$31
📊 Base
$50
🚀 Bull
| Tier | Price | Action |
|---|---|---|
| Tier 1 — Starter | ≤$29 | Begin position |
| Tier 2 — Add | ≤$24 | Add on weakness |
| Tier 3 — Full | ≤$18 | Full allocation |
| Sell Alert | ≥$43 | Above fair value — consider trimming |
PBF is trading above the analyst consensus PT of $31.50, which prices in a weak 2026 refining environment. At $42, the stock is near its bull-case intrinsic value on normalized assumptions, leaving little margin of safety for new money. Hold existing position. Add aggressively below $30 (near bear-case IV), where mid-cycle recovery provides 40%+ upside. Reduces to Sell if crack spreads remain compressed through 2027 or dividend coverage deteriorates.
📂 Current Position Summary
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Shares Held | 579.86 |
| Average Cost Basis | $37.49 |
| Current Market Value | $24,348 |
| Unrealized P&L | $+2,609 (+12.0%) |
| Annual DPS | $1.100/yr |
| Annual Dividend Income | $638/yr |
| Current Yield (at price) | 2.62% |
| Yield on Cost | 2.93% |
| vs Target (~$200K) | $24,348 / $200,000 (12%) |
Bore Family Office • Analysis generated by Lurch • Not investment advice.