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PFFA

PFFA

Hold 2026-03-06
Model
DDM
Price at Report
$21.41
Base IV
$23.61
Bear IV
$21.79
Bull IV
$26.58
Entry Zone: 19-20 · Sell Above: 24.5
Bore Family Office
Bore Family Office
Valuation Report — Virtus InfraCap U.S. Preferred Stock ETF (PFFA) • March 6, 2026
3-Stage DDM (Ke) • Discount Rate: 9.50% • Current Price: $21.41
Prepared by Lurch • Bore Family Office • Data: Finnhub, StockAnalysis.com, S&P Global Market Intelligence
🏢 Business Overview

The Virtus InfraCap U.S. Preferred Stock ETF (PFFA) is an actively managed ETF launched in May 2018, sub-advised by Infrastructure Capital Advisors (ICA), led by CIO Jay Hatfield. The fund seeks current income as its primary objective (capital appreciation secondary) by investing in preferred securities issued by U.S. companies with market capitalizations over $100 million.

Key differentiator from passive preferred ETFs (PFF, PGX): PFFA uses 20-30% leverage on a revolving credit facility to enhance income generation, resulting in a yield approximately 3-4% higher than unlevered peers. This leverage is both the fund's main attraction and its primary risk factor.

Characteristic Detail
AUM$2.26 billion
Holdings197 preferred securities (bank, insurance, REIT, utility, BDC preferreds)
Top HoldingsBanc of California 7.75% (2.58%), Energy Transfer 9.25% (2.56%), TDS 6.0% (2.40%), First Citizens 6.625% (2.35%), KKR 6.25% (2.30%)
Leverage~20-30% (revolving credit facility)
Management StyleActive — security selection based on relative yield, credit quality, call risk
DistributionMonthly | $0.1725/share | $2.07/yr annualized | 9.55% yield
30-Day SEC Yield9.14% (net income earned; slightly below distribution rate)
Expense Ratio2.11% (reflects leverage costs + active management fee)

Rate sensitivity: Preferred securities are quasi-fixed-income instruments — their prices are inversely correlated with interest rates. PFFA's leverage amplifies this sensitivity. When rates fell in late 2024, PFFA rallied from $19 to $22. If the Fed cuts 2-3 times in 2026, PFFA could approach $23-24. If rates stay elevated or rise, PFFA could test $19-20.

📊 Financial Snapshot
Metric20212022202320242025
Revenue ($M)
EBITDA ($M)
Operating Income ($M)
Net Income ($M)
EPS (diluted)
Free Cash Flow ($M)
Annual DPS$1.920$1.950$1.980$2.010$2.050
Total Debt ($M)
Rev YoY Growth
⚙️ Ke (DDM)
InputValueNotes
Risk-Free Rate (Rf)4.35%10-yr US Treasury yield
Beta (β)0.690Market beta (Finnhub)
Equity Risk Premium (ERP)5.5%Damodaran US ERP
Cost of Equity (Ke)9.50%Ke = Rf + β × ERP
📈 DDM Scenarios
$22
🔴 Bear
$24
📊 Base
$27
🚀 Bull
$21.41
Current Price
$23
Analyst Avg PT
Intrinsic Value vs PriceFCF Projection
📋 Full 10-Year Projection Tables
Bear Scenario
PeriodStageDPS / Dist.PV of DPSCumulative IV
Year 1Stage 1$2.070$1.890$1.89
Year 2Stage 1$2.070$1.726$3.62
Year 3Stage 1$2.070$1.577$5.19
Year 4Stage 1$2.070$1.440$6.63
Year 5Stage 1$2.070$1.315$7.95
Year 6Stage 2$2.070$1.201$9.15
Year 7Stage 2$2.070$1.097$10.25
Year 8Stage 2$2.070$1.002$11.25
Year 9Stage 2$2.070$0.915$12.16
Year 10Stage 2$2.070$0.835$13.00
TerminalTV=$21.79PV(TV)=$8.79 (40% of IV)
Base Scenario
PeriodStageDPS / Dist.PV of DPSCumulative IV
Year 1Stage 1$2.091$1.909$1.91
Year 2Stage 1$2.112$1.761$3.67
Year 3Stage 1$2.133$1.624$5.29
Year 4Stage 1$2.154$1.498$6.79
Year 5Stage 1$2.176$1.382$8.18
Year 6Stage 2$2.186$1.268$9.44
Year 7Stage 2$2.197$1.164$10.61
Year 8Stage 2$2.208$1.068$11.68
Year 9Stage 2$2.219$0.981$12.66
Year 10Stage 2$2.231$0.900$13.56
TerminalTV=$24.91PV(TV)=$10.05 (43% of IV)
Bull Scenario
PeriodStageDPS / Dist.PV of DPSCumulative IV
Year 1Stage 1$2.122$1.938$1.94
Year 2Stage 1$2.175$1.814$3.75
Year 3Stage 1$2.229$1.698$5.45
Year 4Stage 1$2.285$1.589$7.04
Year 5Stage 1$2.342$1.488$8.53
Year 6Stage 2$2.377$1.379$9.91
Year 7Stage 2$2.413$1.278$11.18
Year 8Stage 2$2.449$1.185$12.37
Year 9Stage 2$2.486$1.098$13.47
Year 10Stage 2$2.523$1.018$14.48
TerminalTV=$29.98PV(TV)=$12.10 (46% of IV)
🔲 Sensitivity Table
Ke \ gT1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%
7.5%$33$35$37$40$43
8.0%$31$32$34$36$38
8.5%$28$30$31$33$35
9.0%$27$28$29$30$32
9.5%$25$26$27$28$29
10.0%$24$24$25$26$27
10.5%$22$23$24$24$25
11.0%$21$22$22$23$24
11.5%$20$21$21$22$22

Green = >10% above current price. Red = >10% below. Gold = within ±10%.

Sensitivity Heatmap
📉 Long-Term Price Trend Channel

Log-linear trend fitted to full price history. ±1.5σ bands. Green shaded zone = bottom 25% of historical range — historically attractive entry.

Long-Term Trend Channel
🏦 Comparable Valuation
FundYieldLeverageExpense RatioAUM52-Wk Range
PFFA (Current)9.55%~25%2.11%$2.26B$19.20–$22.50
PFF (iShares Pref)5.50%None0.46%$14.8B$32–$36
PGX (Invesco Pref)5.70%None0.52%$4.0B$13–$15
PFFD (Global X Pref)6.80%None0.23%$2.5B$19–$21
PSK (SPDR SR Pref)6.10%None0.45%$0.5B$40–$43
💰 Dividend / Distribution Analysis
MetricValue
Annual DPS$2.070
Current Yield9.55%
Consecutive Growth Years7
1-yr DPS CAGR+1.5%
3-yr DPS CAGR+1.6%
5-yr DPS CAGR+1.5%
10-yr DPS CAGR
Payout Ratio (DPS/EPS)99.9% ⚠️
FCF Payout Ratio99.9% ⚠️
Sustainability Verdict✅ Safe — Rate Sensitive
PFFA distribution sustainability is solid. The fund earns enough to cover its monthly distributions: 30-day SEC yield (9.14%) is close to distribution rate (9.65%), with the small gap attributable to leverage income. The fund has paid monthly distributions since inception (2018) without cuts. Distribution was raised from $0.170/mo to $0.1725/mo in January 2026 (+1.5%). Key risk: rising interest rates increase borrowing costs on the leverage facility, compressing net income to the fund. If the Fed hikes further, distribution could be reduced. If the Fed cuts, distribution likely grows. The fund holds 197 preferred securities — heavily diversified. Annual income from combined position: $2.07 × 53,430 shares = $110,600/yr. This is the largest income-generating position in the portfolio.
Dividend History
💡 Investment Thesis

Bull case: The Federal Reserve delivers 2-3 rate cuts in 2026 (market is pricing 2 cuts). Each 25bp cut improves PFFA's borrowing costs on its leverage facility (~$565M outstanding) by ~$1.4M/yr, and simultaneously causes preferred security prices to appreciate (preferred prices inversely correlated with rates). In a rate-cutting environment, PFFA: (1) sees NAV appreciate, (2) potentially raises its monthly distribution, and (3) attracts income-seeking investors, narrowing any discount to fair value. Bull IV: $26.58. This is a meaningful total return opportunity.

Bear case: The Fed stays on hold or hikes further due to persistent inflation. Borrowing costs on the leverage facility increase, squeezing the fund's net yield. At elevated rates, preferred securities (which compete with bonds) see price pressure. The fund could cut its distribution (as it did during COVID-2020 market stress). Market price could retrace to the 52-week low of $19.20. Bear IV: $21.79. At current price ($21.41), the Bear case is already almost fully priced in — there's limited downside from here.

Key assumptions — Base case: Distribution grows at 1%/yr (matching historical CAGR), Ke=9.5% (reflecting current rate environment), terminal growth 0.5%. Base IV $23.61 — implies ~10% upside from current price. The stock is modestly undervalued.

Position view: Joseph holds 46,524 shares at $21.36 cost ($2,319 unrealized gain, virtually breakeven) plus Najee's 6,906 shares at $21.73. Combined 53,430 shares generating $110,600/yr in monthly income at 9.55% yield. This is the largest income position in the portfolio and represents ~10% of a $10M portfolio — concentrated but intentional for income generation.

⚖️ DDM Verdict: Hold — Virtus InfraCap U.S. Preferred Stock ETF (PFFA)
Current price: $21.41 | Analyst Avg PT: $23.00
$22
🔴 Bear
$24
📊 Base
$27
🚀 Bull
TierPriceAction
Tier 1 — Starter≤$20Begin position
Tier 2 — Add≤$20Add on weakness
Tier 3 — Full≤$19Full allocation
Sell Alert≥$24Above fair value — consider trimming

Hold. The income is the thesis. Do not let rate anxiety cause you to sell.

  • Base IV: $23.61 | Current price: $21.41 → 10.3% upside to fair value
  • 9.55% current yield is exceptional for a well-diversified preferred portfolio
  • Combined position (53,430 shares) generates $110,600/yr in monthly income
  • Position is approximately at cost — no tax consequence to current holding
  • Add opportunity: below $20.50 (approaches Bear IV, excellent income entry)
  • Below $19.20 (52-week low): Strong Buy — add aggressively (10.9%+ yield)
  • Trim opportunity: above $24.50 (near Bull IV; take some profit on rate optimism)
  • Distribution sustainability: ✅ Safe — no cuts expected unless major credit event
  • Watch: Federal Reserve rate decisions, leverage facility cost changes, credit spreads in bank/REIT preferreds

PFFA generates $9,217/month in income for the family office. Don't overthink it. The income machine is working. Rate cuts are a bonus on top of an already attractive yield. Hold and collect.

📂 Current Position Summary
MetricValue
Shares Held46,523.71
Average Cost Basis$21.36
Current Market Value$996,073
Unrealized P&L$+2,326 (+0.2%)
Annual Dividend Income$96,304/yr
Yield on Cost9.69%
vs Target Position (~$200K)$996,073 vs $200,000 (498% of target)
Bore Family Office • Analysis generated by Lurch • Not investment advice.