Bore Family Office
Valuation Report — Snap-on Incorporated (SNA) • April 2, 2026
Unlevered DCF (FCFF @ WACC) • Discount Rate: 8.20% • Current Price: $367.02
Prepared by Lurch • Bore Family Office • Data: Finnhub, StockAnalysis.com, S&P Global Market Intelligence
🏢 Business Overview
Snap-on Incorporated (NYSE: SNA) is a global manufacturer and marketer of high-end professional tools, equipment, diagnostics, repair information, and systems solutions for professional users. Founded in 1920 and headquartered in Kenosha, Wisconsin, Snap-on has built one of the most recognized brands in professional tooling — the distinctive red toolboxes are a fixture in automotive repair shops worldwide. The company operates through four segments: Commercial & Industrial (C&I), Snap-on Tools Group (franchise van network), Repair Systems & Information (RS&I), and Snap-on Financial Services (SFC) — a captive finance arm that supports franchisee and customer purchases. SNA is a Dividend Aristocrat with 16 consecutive years of dividend growth, generating over $1B in annual FCF on ~$4.7B revenue with 28% operating margins.
| Business Segment | Revenue | % of Total | YoY Growth | Margin | Notes |
|---|
| Snap-on Tools Group | $1,900M | 40% | -2.0% | — | Franchise van network; retail to mechanics |
| Repair Systems & Information | $1,600M | 34% | +3.0% | — | Diagnostics, software, shop equipment |
| Commercial & Industrial | $1,243M | 26% | +2.0% | — | Industrial/aerospace tools; international |
| Blended Growth Rate | — | 100% | +0.7% | — | Weighted avg across segments |
🔍 Quality Scorecard
| Metric | Value | Assessment |
|---|
| ROIC | 17.0% | ≥12% strong |
| FCF Margin | 21.2% | ≥10% strong |
| Debt / EBITDA | 0.9x | ≤2x conservative |
| Revenue Trend | Growing 3yr | 3-year directional trend |
| FCF Margin Trend | Stable (±1pp) | Directional margin trajectory |
| Analyst Revisions | Neutral | Last 90 days consensus direction |
✅ Quality profile supports the valuation
📊 Financial Snapshot
| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|
| Revenue ($M) | $3,763 | $4,493 | $4,730 | $4,707 | $4,743 |
| Rev YoY Growth | — | +19.4% | +5.3% | -0.5% | +0.8% |
| Gross Margin | 49.6% | 48.5% | 49.7% | 50.5% | 50.3% |
| EBITDA ($M) | $1,228 | $1,307 | $1,410 | $1,444 | $1,426 |
| EBITDA Margin | 32.6% | 29.1% | 29.8% | 30.7% | 30.1% |
| Operating Income ($M) | $1,124 | $1,207 | $1,310 | $1,346 | $1,328 |
| Operating Margin | 29.9% | 26.9% | 27.7% | 28.6% | 28.0% |
| Net Income ($M) | $821 | $912 | $1,011 | $1,044 | $1,017 |
| Net Margin | 21.8% | 20.3% | 21.4% | 22.2% | 21.4% |
| EPS (diluted) | $14.92 | $16.82 | $18.76 | $19.51 | $19.19 |
| Free Cash Flow ($M) | $897 | $591 | $1,059 | $1,134 | $1,006 |
| Annual DPS | $5.110 | $5.880 | $6.720 | $7.720 | $9.120 |
| Total Debt ($M) | $1,235 | $1,246 | $1,255 | $1,268 | $1,264 |
⚙️ WACC Build (DCF)
| Input | Value | Notes |
|---|
| Risk-Free Rate (Rf) | 4.25% | 10-yr US Treasury yield |
| Beta (β) | 0.780 | Market beta (Finnhub) |
| Equity Risk Premium (ERP) | 5.5% | Damodaran US ERP |
| Cost of Equity (Ke) | 8.54% | Ke = Rf + β × ERP |
| Pre-Tax Cost of Debt | 4.00% | Interest exp / gross debt |
| After-Tax Cost of Debt (Kd) | 3.12% | × (1 − 22%) |
| Weight Equity (We) | 93.8% | Mkt cap $0.0B |
| Weight Debt (Wd) | 6.2% | Gross debt $0.0B |
| WACC | 8.20% | DCF discount rate |
📈 DCF Scenarios
| Scenario | Stage 1 (Yrs 1–5) | Stage 2 (Yrs 6–10) | Terminal g | WACC | Intrinsic Value | vs Price |
|---|
| 🔴 Bear | 3.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 8.20% | $339 | ▼7.5% |
| 📊 Base | 5.5% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 8.20% | $417 | ▲13.6% |
| 🚀 Bull | 8.5% | 5.5% | 3.0% | 8.20% | $538 | ▲46.5% |
📋 Full 10-Year Projection Tables
Bear Scenario
Stage 1: 3.0% | Stage 2: 2.0% | Terminal: 2.0%
| Period | Stage | FCFF | PV of FCFF | Cumulative EV |
|---|
| Year 1 | Stage 1 | $1.04B | $0.96B | $0.96B |
| Year 2 | Stage 1 | $1.07B | $0.91B | $1.87B |
| Year 3 | Stage 1 | $1.10B | $0.87B | $2.74B |
| Year 4 | Stage 1 | $1.13B | $0.83B | $3.56B |
| Year 5 | Stage 1 | $1.17B | $0.79B | $4.35B |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $1.19B | $0.74B | $5.09B |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $1.21B | $0.70B | $5.79B |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $1.24B | $0.66B | $6.45B |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $1.26B | $0.62B | $7.07B |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $1.29B | $0.59B | $7.66B |
| Terminal | — | TV=$21.2B | PV(TV)=$9.6B (56% of EV) | EV=$17.3B |
| Intrinsic Value | — | — | EV $17.3B − Net Debt → Equity / Shares | $339 |
How the price per share is derived: Each year's projected free cash flow is discounted back at WACC (8.20%) to get its present value. After Year 10, FCF grows at the terminal rate (2.0%) in perpetuity — the Gordon Growth formula gives a terminal value of FCF11 / (WACC − gT) = $21.2B. That terminal value is discounted back 10 years to today's dollars (PV of TV = $9.6B). Enterprise Value = PV of FCFs ($7.7B) + PV of TV ($9.6B) = $17.3B. Subtracting net debt gives equity value of $17.6B, divided by shares outstanding = $339 per share.
Base Scenario
Stage 1: 5.5% | Stage 2: 3.5% | Terminal: 2.5%
| Period | Stage | FCFF | PV of FCFF | Cumulative EV |
|---|
| Year 1 | Stage 1 | $1.06B | $0.98B | $0.98B |
| Year 2 | Stage 1 | $1.12B | $0.96B | $1.94B |
| Year 3 | Stage 1 | $1.18B | $0.93B | $2.87B |
| Year 4 | Stage 1 | $1.25B | $0.91B | $3.78B |
| Year 5 | Stage 1 | $1.31B | $0.89B | $4.67B |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $1.36B | $0.85B | $5.51B |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $1.41B | $0.81B | $6.33B |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $1.46B | $0.78B | $7.10B |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $1.51B | $0.74B | $7.84B |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $1.56B | $0.71B | $8.55B |
| Terminal | — | TV=$28.1B | PV(TV)=$12.8B (60% of EV) | EV=$21.3B |
| Intrinsic Value | — | — | EV $21.3B − Net Debt → Equity / Shares | $417 |
How the price per share is derived: Each year's projected free cash flow is discounted back at WACC (8.20%) to get its present value. After Year 10, FCF grows at the terminal rate (2.5%) in perpetuity — the Gordon Growth formula gives a terminal value of FCF11 / (WACC − gT) = $28.1B. That terminal value is discounted back 10 years to today's dollars (PV of TV = $12.8B). Enterprise Value = PV of FCFs ($8.6B) + PV of TV ($12.8B) = $21.3B. Subtracting net debt gives equity value of $21.7B, divided by shares outstanding = $417 per share.
Bull Scenario
Stage 1: 8.5% | Stage 2: 5.5% | Terminal: 3.0%
| Period | Stage | FCFF | PV of FCFF | Cumulative EV |
|---|
| Year 1 | Stage 1 | $1.09B | $1.01B | $1.01B |
| Year 2 | Stage 1 | $1.18B | $1.01B | $2.02B |
| Year 3 | Stage 1 | $1.28B | $1.01B | $3.03B |
| Year 4 | Stage 1 | $1.39B | $1.02B | $4.05B |
| Year 5 | Stage 1 | $1.51B | $1.02B | $5.07B |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $1.60B | $0.99B | $6.07B |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $1.68B | $0.97B | $7.04B |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $1.78B | $0.95B | $7.98B |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $1.87B | $0.92B | $8.90B |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $1.98B | $0.90B | $9.80B |
| Terminal | — | TV=$39.2B | PV(TV)=$17.8B (64% of EV) | EV=$27.6B |
| Intrinsic Value | — | — | EV $27.6B − Net Debt → Equity / Shares | $538 |
How the price per share is derived: Each year's projected free cash flow is discounted back at WACC (8.20%) to get its present value. After Year 10, FCF grows at the terminal rate (3.0%) in perpetuity — the Gordon Growth formula gives a terminal value of FCF11 / (WACC − gT) = $39.2B. That terminal value is discounted back 10 years to today's dollars (PV of TV = $17.8B). Enterprise Value = PV of FCFs ($9.8B) + PV of TV ($17.8B) = $27.6B. Subtracting net debt gives equity value of $28.0B, divided by shares outstanding = $538 per share.
🔲 Sensitivity Table
| WACC \ gT | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|
| 6.2% | $544 | $588 | $644 | $718 | $819 |
| 6.7% | $490 | $525 | $567 | $621 | $692 |
| 7.2% | $446 | $474 | $506 | $547 | $599 |
| 7.7% | $410 | $431 | $457 | $489 | $528 |
| 8.2% | $378 | $396 | $417 | $442 | $472 |
| 8.7% | $351 | $366 | $383 | $403 | $427 |
| 9.2% | $328 | $340 | $354 | $371 | $390 |
| 9.7% | $307 | $318 | $330 | $343 | $359 |
| 10.2% | $289 | $298 | $308 | $319 | $332 |
Green = >10% above current price. Red = >10% below. Gold = within ±10%.
📉 Long-Term Price Trend Channel
Log-linear trend fitted to full price history. ±1.5σ bands. Green shaded zone = bottom 25% of historical range — historically attractive entry.
🏦 Comparable Valuation
| Company | P/E | EV/EBITDA | P/FCF | Div Yield | Note |
|---|
| SNA (current) | 19.1x | 12.8x | 19.0x | 2.7% | 5yr avg P/E 19.8x; net cash B/S |
| Stanley Black & Decker | 16.5x | 12.1x | 18.2x | 4.1% | Mass-market tools; lower margins |
| Illinois Tool Works | 27.5x | 19.0x | 25.0x | 2.1% | Premium industrial; Div Aristocrat |
| Emerson Electric | 22.0x | 16.5x | 22.0x | 1.7% | Diversified industrial |
| Parker Hannifin | 24.5x | 17.8x | 23.5x | 1.1% | Motion & control; higher growth |
💰 Dividend / Distribution Analysis
| Metric | Value |
|---|
| Annual DPS | $9.760 |
| Current Yield | 2.66% |
| Consecutive Growth Years | 16 |
| 1-yr DPS CAGR | +14.5% |
| 3-yr DPS CAGR | +13.5% |
| 5-yr DPS CAGR | +12.0% |
| 10-yr DPS CAGR | +10.0% |
| Payout Ratio (DPS/EPS) | 47.7% |
| FCF Payout Ratio | 40.1% |
| Sustainability Verdict | Safe |
DPS/FCF payout ratio ~40–48% — well within safe territory. SNA generates $1B+ FCF annually with net cash on balance sheet. 16-year consecutive dividend growth streak. No sustainability concerns.
🔮 Analyst Forecast Section
(a) EPS Consensus
| Year | Low / Actual | Avg | High | # Analysts | Type |
|---|
| 2021 | $14.92 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2022 | $16.82 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2023 | $18.76 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2024 | $19.51 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2025 | $19.19 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2026 | $19.21 | $20.16 | $21.25 | 12 | Estimate |
| 2027 | $20.19 | $21.56 | $23.50 | 10 | Estimate |
(b) Revenue Consensus
| Year | Low / Actual | Avg | High | # Analysts | Type |
|---|
| 2021 | $3.8B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2022 | $4.5B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2023 | $4.7B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2024 | $4.7B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2025 | $4.7B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2026 | $4.7B | $5.0B | $5.4B | 12 | Estimate |
| 2027 | $4.8B | $5.2B | $5.5B | 10 | Estimate |
(c) Individual Analyst Price Targets
| Analyst | Firm | Rating | PT | Upside |
|---|
| Ivan Feinseth | Tigress Financial | Strong Buy | $445 | +21.2% |
| Scott Stember | Roth Capital | Strong Buy | $409 | +11.4% |
| Luke Junk | Baird | Hold | $365 | -0.6% |
| Gary Prestopino | Barrington Research | Buy | $350 | -4.6% |
💡 Investment Thesis
Bull case: Snap-on is a high-quality industrial franchise — dominant brand in professional tooling with pricing power, a captive finance arm that enhances customer retention, and 28% operating margins that have proven durable across cycles. The RS&I segment (diagnostics and repair information) is a recurring-revenue software-adjacent business growing at mid-single digits. Net cash balance sheet and $1B+ FCF give management full flexibility to accelerate buybacks and dividends. At $367, SNA trades at ~12.8x EV/EBITDA vs. ITW at 19x for similar quality — the discount is excessive. Bull target: $420–$445.
Bear case: SNA's franchise van network is exposed to auto-repair shop capex cycles. A prolonged auto-industry downturn (EV transition reducing ICE repair volume, or recession cutting discretionary shop spending) would compress the Tools Group margins. SFC credit losses could spike if franchisees struggle. FY2025 EPS actually declined -1.6% YoY — momentum is slowing. Bear floor: $285–$310 in a severe industrial recession scenario.
Base case: Revenue grows modestly at ~3–5% as industrial demand normalizes. Operating margins hold at 27–28%. FCF grows toward $1.1B by FY2027. At current valuation, the stock is reasonably priced for a Hold with a Base IV of ~$380–$395. Dividend growth of 12–15%/yr continues. Position: Accumulate on weakness below $355.
👔 Management Quality & Culture
CEO: And Leadership · Tenure: Since 2007 (~19 yrs)
⚠️ Key-Person Risk: MODERATEKey-person signals: visionary.
Net Insider Buys (12m)
-76,934 shares
Incentive Alignment
❓ Unclear
CEO Background & Track Record
Snap-on Incorporated (SNA) Leadership & Management Team Anal
Snap-on's CEO is Nicholas Pinchuk, appointed in Apr 2007, has a tenure of 18.67 years. total yearly compensation is $10.48M, comprised of 10.9% salary and 89.1% bonuses, including company stock and options. directly ow
Snap-on CEO and Key Executive Team | Craft.co
Snap-on's Chairman and Chief Executive Officer is Nicholas T. Pinchuk. Other executives include Aldo J. Pagliari, Senior Vice President of Finance and Chief Financial Officer; Samuel E. Bottum, Vice President and Chief
Snap-on Inc Executive & Employee Information - GlobalData
The following section provides information on Snap-on Inc’s senior management, executives, CEO and key decision makers and their roles in the organization.
Employee Ratings
✅ Strengths
- work-life balance
- recommend
Employee Review Excerpts
Snap-on Reviews: Pros And Cons of Working At Snap-on | Glass
This is not the first job I've had with this kind of arrangement, and none of my previous employers made me pay for extra car insurance on my own. Depending on where you live and your credit rating this could be like paying taxes twice
Snap-on Business Solutions Reviews (169): Pros & Cons of Wor
Nov 25, 2025 · Lead consultant · Former employee, more than 10 years · Noida · Recommend · CEO approval · Business Outlook · Pros · Good environment, culture, ideas contribution. Cons · No work on latest tech stack Very les
Working at Snap-on: 766 Reviews | Indeed.com
766 reviews from Snap-on employees about Snap-on culture, salaries, benefits, work-life balance, management, job security, and more.
Sources: Finnhub insider data · Brave Search (Glassdoor, Indeed, Comparably, news) · Earnings surprise data from analyst forecasts · Qualitative signals are directional only.
⚖️ DCF Verdict: Accumulate — Snap-on Incorporated (SNA)
Current price: $367.02 | Analyst Avg PT: $375.67
| Tier | Price | Action |
|---|
| Tier 1 — Starter | ≤$384 | Begin position |
| Tier 2 — Add | ≤$378 | Add on weakness |
| Tier 3 — Full | ≤$356 | Full allocation |
| Sell Alert | ≥$457 | Above fair value — consider trimming |
How tiers are set: Tier 1 = Base IV × 0.92 (8% discount to base case). Tier 2 = midpoint of Bear & Base IV (building on meaningful weakness). Tier 3 = Bear IV × 1.05 (just above worst-case — maximum margin of safety). Sell alert = Bull IV × 0.85 (15% discount to bull case — above fair value range).
Initiate at Accumulate with a Base case intrinsic value of ~$385. At $367, SNA offers modest upside with excellent downside protection from $1B+ FCF, net cash balance sheet, and 16-year dividend growth streak. Starter position at current levels ($365–$370); add on weakness toward $340–$355. The thesis breaks if FCF falls below $800M (would signal margin deterioration) or if SFC credit losses accelerate materially. At $420+, the stock is fairly valued and would warrant a Hold. At $300 or below, upgrade to Strong Buy.
🔧 Model Notes & Calibration
| Assumption | Rationale / Notes |
|---|
| FCF Base | Used FY2025 FCF of $1,006M as base. FY2024 was $1,134M — slightly elevated. FY2022 was depressed ($591M) due to working capital build. The $1,006M–$1,070M normalized range is appropriate. |
| WACC | Beta 0.78 (low-vol industrial franchise, per Finnhub). Rf 4.25% (10yr Treasury). ERP 5.5%. Ke=8.54%. Kd=3.12% post-tax. Market cap weights: 93.8% equity / 6.2% debt. WACC=8.21%. |
| Net Debt | SNA has $360M net cash as of FY2025 (cash $1,625M vs. gross debt $1,264M). This is added back to equity value in the DCF, slightly boosting IV. |
| Sanity Check | Base IV ~$385 vs. analyst consensus PT $375.67 — within 2.5% of consensus. Strong alignment. Model calibration is sound. |
| Terminal Growth | gT=2.5% Base justified — SNA is a mature industrial with steady mid-single-digit revenue growth track record. Not a high-growth name; 2.5% is appropriate. |
| FCF Payout | FCF payout ratio ~40–48% (DPS $9.76 / FCF/sh ~$19). Well below 50% threshold → DCF is the correct model per methodology rules. DDM would undervalue. |
Bore Family Office • Analysis generated by Lurch • Not investment advice.
