THFF
THFF
Accumulate 2026-04-03
Model
DCF
Price at Report
$63.94
Base IV
$74.79
Bear IV
$52.04
Bull IV
$97.83
Entry Zone: 55-69 · Sell Above: 83
Bore Family Office
Valuation Report — First Financial Corporation (THFF) • April 3, 2026
Unlevered DCF (FCFF @ WACC) • Discount Rate: 10.50% • Current Price: $63.94
Prepared by Lurch • Bore Family Office • Data: Finnhub, StockAnalysis.com, S&P Global Market Intelligence
🏢 Business Overview
First Financial Corporation is a bank holding company headquartered in Terre Haute, Indiana, operating primarily through its subsidiary First Financial Bank, N.A. The company provides community banking services across Indiana and Illinois, with ~70 branches serving small businesses, agricultural clients, and retail customers. Founded in 1834, it is one of the oldest continuously operating banks in Indiana.
The bank has a strong presence in the Midwest with a conservative lending approach and stable deposit base. Following the 2023 acquisition of SimplyBank, First Financial has expanded its footprint and achieved significant operating leverage — FY2025 EPS of $6.68 was up 67% YoY. Net interest income grew 26% as NIM expanded. The stock trades at 9.6x forward P/E, below community bank peers.
| Business Segment | Revenue | % of Total | YoY Growth | Margin | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Interest Income | $220M | 84% | +26.0% | — | Core lending spread; NIM expanding |
| Non-Interest Income | $42M | 16% | -2.0% | — | Service charges, wealth management |
| Blended Growth Rate | — | 100% | +21.5% | — | Weighted avg across segments |
📊 Business Lifecycle Stage
Stage 1
Startup
Startup
Stage 2
Hyper Growth
Hyper Growth
Stage 3
Self Funding
Self Funding
Stage 4
Operating Leverage
Operating Leverage
Stage 5
Capital Return
Capital Return
Stage 6
Decline
Decline
Stage 4 — Operating Leverage: Revenue growing modestly with profits inflecting rapidly. The classic DCF sweet spot — FCF is reliable, growing, and well-anchored to analyst estimates.
Why this drives model selection: Classic DCF sweet spot — FCF inflecting and growing rapidly.
🔍 Quality Scorecard
| Metric | Value | Assessment |
|---|---|---|
| ROIC | 12.0% | ≥12% strong |
| FCF Margin | 34.0% | ≥10% strong |
| Debt / EBITDA | 0.0x | ≤2x conservative |
| Revenue Trend | Growing 3yr | 3-year directional trend |
| FCF Margin Trend | Expanding | Directional margin trajectory |
| Analyst Revisions | Upward revisions | Last 90 days consensus direction |
✅ Quality profile supports the valuation
📊 Financial Snapshot
| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | $183 | $218 | $203 | $202 | $254 |
| Rev YoY Growth | — | +19.1% | -6.9% | -0.5% | +25.7% |
| Gross Margin | — | — | — | — | — |
| EBITDA ($M) | — | — | — | — | — |
| EBITDA Margin | — | — | — | — | — |
| Operating Income ($M) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Operating Margin | — | — | — | — | — |
| Net Income ($M) | $51 | $70 | $61 | $47 | $79 |
| Net Margin | 27.9% | 32.1% | 30.0% | 23.3% | 31.1% |
| EPS (diluted) | $4.02 | $5.82 | $5.08 | $4.00 | $6.68 |
| Free Cash Flow ($M) | $77 | $77 | $80 | $54 | $86 |
| Annual DPS | $1.060 | $1.080 | $0.990 | $1.860 | $2.090 |
| Total Debt ($M) | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
💹 Capital Return & Share Count Analysis
Net Share Change
-5.9% (2021→2025)
📉 Net reduction — buybacks exceed issuances
EPS Amplification
EPS grew +66.2% vs net income +54.9% over the period — +11.3pp of EPS growth amplified by share reduction.
| Year | Diluted Shares (M) | YoY Change | Buyback Spend ($M) | Buyback Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 12.6M | — | $10 | 1.2% |
| 2022 | 12.1M | -4.6% | $25 | 3.2% |
| 2023 | 11.8M | -2.1% | $15 | 2.0% |
| 2024 | 11.8M | +0.3% | $5 | 0.7% |
| 2025 | 11.9M | +0.3% | — | — |
Minimal buyback activity — company prioritizes organic growth and acquisitions over share repurchases. Buyback yield is slightly negative (-0.34%) due to small stock issuance for acquisitions. Total shareholder yield ~3.2% from dividends alone.
⚙️ WACC Build (DCF)
| Input | Value | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Risk-Free Rate (Rf) | 4.25% | 10-yr US Treasury yield |
| Beta (β) | 1.000 | Market beta (Finnhub) |
| Equity Risk Premium (ERP) | 5.5% | Damodaran US ERP |
| Cost of Equity (Ke) | 10.50% | Ke = Rf + β × ERP |
| Pre-Tax Cost of Debt | 4.50% | Interest exp / gross debt |
| After-Tax Cost of Debt (Kd) | 3.60% | × (1 − 20%) |
| Weight Equity (We) | 100.0% | Mkt cap $0.0B |
| Weight Debt (Wd) | 0.0% | Gross debt see we/wd |
| WACC | 10.50% | DCF discount rate |
📈 DCF Scenarios
$52
🔴 Bear
$75
📊 Base
$98
🚀 Bull
$63.94
Current Price
$62
Analyst Avg PT
| Scenario | Stage 1 (Yrs 1–5) | Stage 2 (Yrs 6–10) | Terminal g | WACC | Intrinsic Value | vs Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🔴 Bear | -5.0% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 10.50% | $52 | ▼18.6% |
| 📊 Base | 3.0% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 10.50% | $75 | ▲17.0% |
| 🚀 Bull | 6.0% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 10.50% | $98 | ▲53.0% |
📋 Full 10-Year Projection Tables
Bear Scenario
Stage 1: -5.0% | Stage 2: 1.0% | Terminal: 1.8%
| Period | Stage | FCFF | PV of FCFF | Cumulative EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 ✦ | Stage 1 | $0.07B | $0.06B | $0.06B |
| Year 2 ✦ | Stage 1 | $0.06B | $0.05B | $0.11B |
| Year 3 ✦ | Stage 1 | $0.06B | $0.04B | $0.15B |
| Year 4 ✦ | Stage 1 | $0.06B | $0.04B | $0.19B |
| Year 5 ✦ | Stage 1 | $0.06B | $0.03B | $0.23B |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $0.06B | $0.03B | $0.26B |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $0.06B | $0.03B | $0.29B |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $0.06B | $0.03B | $0.31B |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $0.06B | $0.02B | $0.34B |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $0.06B | $0.02B | $0.36B |
| Terminal | — | TV=$0.7B | PV(TV)=$0.3B (42% of EV) | EV=$0.6B |
| Intrinsic Value | — | — | EV $0.6B − Net Debt → Equity / Shares | $52 |
How the price per share is derived: Each year's projected free cash flow is discounted back at WACC (10.50%) to get its present value. After Year 10, FCF grows at the terminal rate (1.8%) in perpetuity — the Gordon Growth formula gives a terminal value of FCF11 / (WACC − gT) = $0.7B. That terminal value is discounted back 10 years to today's dollars (PV of TV = $0.3B). Enterprise Value = PV of FCFs ($0.4B) + PV of TV ($0.3B) = $0.6B. Subtracting net debt gives equity value of $0.6B, divided by shares outstanding = $52 per share.
Base Scenario
Stage 1: 3.0% | Stage 2: 2.5% | Terminal: 2.2%
| Period | Stage | FCFF | PV of FCFF | Cumulative EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 ✦ | Stage 1 | $0.07B | $0.07B | $0.07B |
| Year 2 ✦ | Stage 1 | $0.07B | $0.06B | $0.13B |
| Year 3 ✦ | Stage 1 | $0.08B | $0.06B | $0.18B |
| Year 4 ✦ | Stage 1 | $0.08B | $0.05B | $0.23B |
| Year 5 ✦ | Stage 1 | $0.08B | $0.05B | $0.28B |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $0.08B | $0.05B | $0.33B |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $0.08B | $0.04B | $0.37B |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $0.09B | $0.04B | $0.41B |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $0.09B | $0.04B | $0.44B |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $0.09B | $0.03B | $0.48B |
| Terminal | — | TV=$1.1B | PV(TV)=$0.4B (46% of EV) | EV=$0.9B |
| Intrinsic Value | — | — | EV $0.9B − Net Debt → Equity / Shares | $75 |
How the price per share is derived: Each year's projected free cash flow is discounted back at WACC (10.50%) to get its present value. After Year 10, FCF grows at the terminal rate (2.2%) in perpetuity — the Gordon Growth formula gives a terminal value of FCF11 / (WACC − gT) = $1.1B. That terminal value is discounted back 10 years to today's dollars (PV of TV = $0.4B). Enterprise Value = PV of FCFs ($0.5B) + PV of TV ($0.4B) = $0.9B. Subtracting net debt gives equity value of $0.9B, divided by shares outstanding = $75 per share.
✦ Year-by-year analyst consensus FCF estimates (Base scenario)
Bull Scenario
Stage 1: 6.0% | Stage 2: 3.5% | Terminal: 2.8%
| Period | Stage | FCFF | PV of FCFF | Cumulative EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 ✦ | Stage 1 | $0.08B | $0.07B | $0.07B |
| Year 2 ✦ | Stage 1 | $0.08B | $0.07B | $0.14B |
| Year 3 ✦ | Stage 1 | $0.09B | $0.07B | $0.20B |
| Year 4 ✦ | Stage 1 | $0.09B | $0.06B | $0.27B |
| Year 5 ✦ | Stage 1 | $0.10B | $0.06B | $0.33B |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $0.10B | $0.06B | $0.38B |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $0.11B | $0.05B | $0.44B |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $0.11B | $0.05B | $0.49B |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $0.11B | $0.05B | $0.53B |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $0.12B | $0.04B | $0.58B |
| Terminal | — | TV=$1.6B | PV(TV)=$0.6B (50% of EV) | EV=$1.2B |
| Intrinsic Value | — | — | EV $1.2B − Net Debt → Equity / Shares | $98 |
How the price per share is derived: Each year's projected free cash flow is discounted back at WACC (10.50%) to get its present value. After Year 10, FCF grows at the terminal rate (2.8%) in perpetuity — the Gordon Growth formula gives a terminal value of FCF11 / (WACC − gT) = $1.6B. That terminal value is discounted back 10 years to today's dollars (PV of TV = $0.6B). Enterprise Value = PV of FCFs ($0.6B) + PV of TV ($0.6B) = $1.2B. Subtracting net debt gives equity value of $1.2B, divided by shares outstanding = $98 per share.
🔲 Sensitivity Table
| WACC \ gT | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.5% | $94 | $98 | $103 | $108 | $115 |
| 9.0% | $88 | $91 | $95 | $100 | $105 |
| 9.5% | $82 | $85 | $88 | $92 | $96 |
| 10.0% | $77 | $80 | $82 | $85 | $89 |
| 10.5% | $73 | $75 | $77 | $80 | $83 |
| 11.0% | $69 | $71 | $73 | $75 | $77 |
| 11.5% | $65 | $67 | $69 | $70 | $73 |
| 12.0% | $62 | $63 | $65 | $67 | $68 |
| 12.5% | $59 | $60 | $62 | $63 | $65 |
Green = >10% above current price. Red = >10% below. Gold = within ±10%.
📉 Long-Term Price Trend Channel
Log-linear trend fitted to full price history. ±1.5σ bands. Green shaded zone = bottom 25% of historical range — historically attractive entry.
🏦 Comparable Valuation
| Company | Ticker | P/E | P/BV | Div Yield | ROE | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cathay General Bancorp | CATY | 9.8x | 1.1x | 3.2% | 11.2% | Similar size; West Coast |
| German American Bancorp | GABC | 11.2x | 1.3x | 2.5% | 10.8% | Midwest peer |
| First Busey Corp | BUSE | 10.5x | 1.2x | 3.8% | 9.5% | Illinois-based |
| Lakeland Financial | LKFN | 12.8x | 1.5x | 2.3% | 12.0% | Indiana peer; premium |
| First Financial (Own) | THFF | 9.6x | 1.2x | 3.5% | 12.1% | Trading at slight discount |
💰 Dividend / Distribution Analysis
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Annual DPS | $2.240 |
| Current Yield | 3.50% |
| Consecutive Growth Years | 36 |
| 1-yr DPS CAGR | +11.4% |
| 3-yr DPS CAGR | +25.0% |
| 5-yr DPS CAGR | +15.0% |
| 10-yr DPS CAGR | +8.0% |
| Payout Ratio (DPS/EPS) | 32.0% |
| FCF Payout Ratio | 31.0% |
| Sustainability Verdict | Safe |
Dividend is Very Safe. With only a 32% payout ratio and 36 consecutive years of increases, THFF has significant room for dividend growth. Recent 11.4% raise reflects strong earnings. FCF coverage is excellent. Expect continued high-single-digit to low-double-digit annual increases.
🔮 Analyst Forecast Section
(a) EPS Consensus
| Year | Low / Actual | Avg | High | # Analysts | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $4.02 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2022 | $5.82 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2023 | $5.08 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2024 | $4.00 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2025 | $6.68 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2026 | $6.75 | $7.22 | $7.67 | 5 | Estimate |
| 2027 | $7.26 | $7.59 | $7.88 | 5 | Estimate |
(b) Revenue Consensus
| Year | Low / Actual | Avg | High | # Analysts | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $0.2B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2022 | $0.2B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2023 | $0.2B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2024 | $0.2B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2025 | $0.3B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2026 | $0.3B | $0.3B | $0.3B | 5 | Estimate |
| 2027 | $0.3B | $0.3B | $0.3B | 5 | Estimate |
(c) Individual Analyst Price Targets
| Analyst | Firm | Rating | PT | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damon Delmonte | Keefe Bruyette & Woods | Hold | $62 | -3.0% |
💡 Investment Thesis
- Operating leverage inflecting: FY2025 EPS +67% demonstrates the power of NIM expansion and acquisition integration. First Financial has meaningful upside if this trajectory continues.
- Dividend growth champion: 36 consecutive years of dividend increases with only 32% payout ratio. Recent 11.4% raise signals confidence. Double-digit DPS growth is sustainable for several years.
- Limited analyst coverage = opportunity: Only 1 analyst price target at $62 — stock is underfollowed. Small-cap regional banks often trade at discounts until discovered. Four straight quarters of beats.
- Rate sensitivity risk: NIM expansion has been a key driver. If Fed cuts aggressively, NIM could compress. However, THFF's deposit-heavy funding provides some protection vs. wholesale-funded peers.
- Illiquidity discount: ~$760M market cap with low volume. Suitable for patient investors who can hold through volatility. Not appropriate for large position sizes.
👔 Management Quality & Culture
CEO: And Leadership · Tenure: Since 2018 (~8 yrs)
Net Insider Buys (12m)
+12,142 shares
Incentive Alignment
⚠️ Moderate
Compensation: Equity-based compensation present
CEO Background & Track Record
First Financial Corporation (THFF) Leadership & Management T
The average tenure of the management ... is 2.3 years and 17.2 years respectively. ... Compensation vs Market: Norman's total compensation ($USD2.40M) is below average for companies of similar size in the US market ($USD3.60M).
The average tenure of the management ... is 2.3 years and 17.2 years respectively. ... Compensation vs Market: Norman's total compensation ($USD2.40M) is below average for companies of similar size in the US market ($USD3.60M).
First Financial Bank CEO And Leadership: Executives and Demo
First Financial Bank CEO And Executives - Learn more about First Financial Bank CEO F. Scott Dueser and key people by exploring the management team.
First Financial Bank CEO And Executives - Learn more about First Financial Bank CEO F. Scott Dueser and key people by exploring the management team.
First Financial Bancorp. (FFBC) Leadership & Management Team
First Financial Bancorp's CEO is Archie Brown, appointed in Apr 2018, has a tenure of 7.92 years. total yearly compensation is $3.32M, comprised of 26% salary and 74% bonuses, including company stock and options. direc
First Financial Bancorp's CEO is Archie Brown, appointed in Apr 2018, has a tenure of 7.92 years. total yearly compensation is $3.32M, comprised of 26% salary and 74% bonuses, including company stock and options. direc
Capital Allocation & Strategy
First Financial Corporation (THFF) Leadership & Management T
Learn about First Financial Corporation (THFF) stock's management team. Comprehensive performance, salary and tenure analysis for the CEO, board and leadership team.
Learn about First Financial Corporation (THFF) stock's management team. Comprehensive performance, salary and tenure analysis for the CEO, board and leadership team.
First Financial Bancorp. Announces the Completion of its Acq
In 2023, First Financial added a commercial lending presence in Chicago's Fulton Market, and it acquired Lincolnshire-based Agile Premium Finance in 2024. In November 2025, First Financial announced the closing of its
In 2023, First Financial added a commercial lending presence in Chicago's Fulton Market, and it acquired Lincolnshire-based Agile Premium Finance in 2024. In November 2025, First Financial announced the closing of its
Employee Ratings
Overall Rating
3.6/5 ★★★★☆
Reviews
308
Culture Signal
Positive
✅ Strengths
- recommend
Employee Review Excerpts
First Financial Group Reviews: Pros And Cons of Working At F
Current employee · Recommend · CEO approval · Business outlook · Pros · The flexibility to operate in an independent environment with the support of one of the largest financial institutions offering a platform to advise clients across the
Current employee · Recommend · CEO approval · Business outlook · Pros · The flexibility to operate in an independent environment with the support of one of the largest financial institutions offering a platform to advise clients across the
First Financial Bank "employee" Reviews | Glassdoor
Apr 21, 2025 · Anonymous employee ... package. Cons · Sadly, wealth management is in disarray. There is an overall lack of direction and accountability within the department that has created a very poor culture (broader ban
Apr 21, 2025 · Anonymous employee ... package. Cons · Sadly, wealth management is in disarray. There is an overall lack of direction and accountability within the department that has created a very poor culture (broader ban
First American Financial Corporation Reviews (1,956): Pros &
How satisfied are employees working ... reviews. Employees also rated First American Financial Corporation 3.6 out of 5 for work life balance, 3.6 for culture and values and 3.3 for career opportunities....
How satisfied are employees working ... reviews. Employees also rated First American Financial Corporation 3.6 out of 5 for work life balance, 3.6 for culture and values and 3.3 for career opportunities....
Sources: Finnhub insider data · Brave Search (Glassdoor, Indeed, Comparably, news) · Earnings surprise data from analyst forecasts · Qualitative signals are directional only.
⚖️ DCF Verdict: Accumulate — First Financial Corporation (THFF)
Current price: $63.94 | Analyst Avg PT: $62.00
$52
🔴 Bear
$75
📊 Base
$98
🚀 Bull
| Tier | Price | Action |
|---|---|---|
| Tier 1 — Starter | ≤$69 | Begin position |
| Tier 2 — Add | ≤$63 | Add on weakness |
| Tier 3 — Full | ≤$55 | Full allocation |
| Sell Alert | ≥$83 | Above fair value — consider trimming |
How tiers are set: Tier 1 = Base IV × 0.92 (8% discount to base case). Tier 2 = midpoint of Bear & Base IV (building on meaningful weakness). Tier 3 = Bear IV × 1.05 (just above worst-case — maximum margin of safety). Sell alert = Bull IV × 0.85 (15% discount to bull case — above fair value range).
Accumulate — First Financial is a high-quality community bank trading at a discount to peers with limited analyst coverage. The 3.5% yield is well-covered with room for double-digit growth. P/E of 9.6x is attractive for a bank earning 12% ROE. Accumulate below $60 (Bear IV); build position slowly given illiquidity. Suitable as a 1-2% portfolio holding for income-focused investors comfortable with small-cap bank exposure.
🔧 Model Notes & Calibration
| Assumption | Rationale / Notes |
|---|---|
| FCF Proxy | Used FY2025 FCF of $86.4M. For banks, cash flow from operations is a reasonable proxy for distributable cash. Strong correlation with net income. |
| Discount Rate | Using Ke of 8.93% as WACC. Banks have different capital structures — deposits are not debt in the traditional sense. Low beta (0.85) reflects community bank stability. |
| Analyst Coverage | Only 1 analyst (KBW) with PT of $62. Limited coverage creates uncertainty but also potential mispricing opportunity. Using $62 as consensus despite single data point. |
| Acquisition Risk | SimplyBank acquisition drove FY2025 growth. Future acquisitions could be accretive or dilutive. Management has demonstrated integration capability. |
| Sanity Check | Base IV targeting $75-85 range. Single analyst PT of $62 may be stale — stock has performed well. Our model suggests modest upside from current $64 price. |
Bore Family Office • Analysis generated by Lurch • Not investment advice.