TSLA
TSLA
Hold / Watch 2026-04-19
Model
DCF
Price at Report
$400.62
Base IV
$37.16
Bear IV
$16.86
Bull IV
$72.18
Entry Zone: 220-340 · Sell Above: 490
Bore Family Office
Valuation Report — Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) • April 19, 2026
Unlevered DCF (FCFF @ WACC) • Discount Rate: 10.50% • Current Price: $400.62
Prepared by Lurch • Bore Family Office • Data: Finnhub, StockAnalysis.com, S&P Global Market Intelligence
🏢 Business Overview
Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) is the world's leading electric vehicle company and a vertically integrated clean energy conglomerate. Founded in 2003 and led by Elon Musk, Tesla designs, manufactures, and sells EVs (Model S/3/X/Y, Cybertruck, Semi), energy storage (Megapack, Powerwall), and solar products. The company also develops AI: Full Self-Driving (FSD) autonomy software and the Optimus humanoid robot program.
Tesla is at an inflection point: the core auto business is facing its first sustained competitive headwind in its history as BYD, GM, Ford, and Chinese OEM competitors flood the market with EVs. The bull case rests entirely on new revenue streams — Robotaxi (autonomous ride-hailing), FSD subscriptions, and Optimus robotics — which are real but unproven at scale. At $400.62, the stock prices in substantial success across all three futures; the bear case shows this premium is not warranted by the base business alone.
| Business Segment | Revenue | % of Total | YoY Growth | Margin | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Auto (EVs) | $77,500M | 82% | -5.0% | — | Model 3/Y price competition; Cybertruck ramp; geographic mix |
| Energy Generation & Storage | $11,000M | 12% | +55.0% | — | Megapack demand surge; utility contracts; margins improving |
| Services / Other | $6,300M | 7% | +8.0% | — | FSD, used cars, service, insurance, merchandise |
| Blended Growth Rate | — | 100% | +3.0% | — | Weighted avg across segments |
📊 Business Lifecycle Stage
Stage 1
Startup
Startup
Stage 2
Hyper Growth
Hyper Growth
Stage 3
Self Funding
Self Funding
Stage 4
Operating Leverage
Operating Leverage
Stage 5
Capital Return
Capital Return
Stage 6
Decline
Decline
Stage 3 — Growth / Re-acceleration: Revenue growing rapidly, approaching breakeven. FCF turning positive — DCF is appropriate with normalized near-breakeven years.
Why this drives model selection: FCF turning positive — DCF appropriate with normalized near-breakeven years.
📊 Financial Snapshot
| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | $53,823 | $81,462 | $96,773 | $97,690 | $94,827 |
| Rev YoY Growth | — | +51.4% | +18.8% | +0.9% | -2.9% |
| Gross Margin | 25.3% | 25.6% | 18.2% | 17.9% | 18.0% |
| EBITDA ($M) | $9,434 | $17,403 | $13,558 | $12,444 | $10,503 |
| EBITDA Margin | 17.5% | 21.4% | 14.0% | 12.7% | 11.1% |
| Operating Income ($M) | $6,523 | $13,656 | $8,891 | $7,076 | $4,355 |
| Operating Margin | 12.1% | 16.8% | 9.2% | 7.2% | 4.6% |
| Net Income ($M) | $5,519 | $12,556 | $14,997 | $7,091 | $3,794 |
| Net Margin | 10.3% | 15.4% | 15.5% | 7.3% | 4.0% |
| EPS (diluted) | $1.63 | $3.62 | $4.30 | $2.04 | $1.08 |
| Free Cash Flow ($M) | $4,983 | $7,561 | $4,357 | $3,581 | $6,220 |
| Annual DPS | $0.000 | $0.000 | $0.000 | $0.000 | $0.000 |
| Total Debt ($M) | — | — | — | — | — |
⚙️ WACC Build (DCF)
| Input | Value | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Risk-Free Rate (Rf) | 4.25% | 10-yr US Treasury yield |
| Beta (β) | 1.850 | Market beta (Finnhub) |
| Equity Risk Premium (ERP) | 5.5% | Damodaran US ERP |
| Cost of Equity (Ke) | 14.43% | Ke = Rf + β × ERP |
| Pre-Tax Cost of Debt | 4.40% | Interest exp / gross debt |
| After-Tax Cost of Debt (Kd) | 3.50% | × (1 − 21%) |
| Weight Equity (We) | 98.5% | Mkt cap $0.0B |
| Weight Debt (Wd) | 1.5% | Gross debt $0.0B |
| WACC | 10.50% | DCF discount rate |
📈 DCF Scenarios
$17
🔴 Bear
$37
📊 Base
$72
🚀 Bull
$400.62
Current Price
$397
Analyst Avg PT
| Scenario | Stage 1 (Yrs 1–5) | Stage 2 (Yrs 6–10) | Terminal g | WACC | Intrinsic Value | vs Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🔴 Bear | -5.0% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 10.50% | $17 | ▼95.8% |
| 📊 Base | 8.0% | 6.0% | 2.5% | 10.50% | $37 | ▼90.7% |
| 🚀 Bull | 15.0% | 10.0% | 3.0% | 10.50% | $72 | ▼82.0% |
📋 Full 10-Year Projection Tables
Bear Scenario
Stage 1: -5.0% | Stage 2: 3.0% | Terminal: 2.0%
| Period | Stage | FCFF | PV of FCFF | Cumulative EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 ✦ | Stage 1 | $5.00B | $4.52B | $4.52B |
| Year 2 ✦ | Stage 1 | $5.20B | $4.26B | $8.78B |
| Year 3 ✦ | Stage 1 | $5.50B | $4.08B | $12.86B |
| Year 4 ✦ | Stage 1 | $5.80B | $3.89B | $16.75B |
| Year 5 ✦ | Stage 1 | $6.00B | $3.64B | $20.39B |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $6.18B | $3.39B | $23.79B |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $6.37B | $3.16B | $26.95B |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $6.56B | $2.95B | $29.90B |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $6.75B | $2.75B | $32.65B |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $6.96B | $2.56B | $35.21B |
| Terminal | — | TV=$83.5B | PV(TV)=$30.8B (47% of EV) | EV=$66.0B |
| Intrinsic Value | — | — | EV $66.0B − Net Debt → Equity / Shares | $17 |
How the price per share is derived: Each year's projected free cash flow is discounted back at WACC (10.50%) to get its present value. After Year 10, FCF grows at the terminal rate (2.0%) in perpetuity — the Gordon Growth formula gives a terminal value of FCF11 / (WACC − gT) = $83.5B. That terminal value is discounted back 10 years to today's dollars (PV of TV = $30.8B). Enterprise Value = PV of FCFs ($35.2B) + PV of TV ($30.8B) = $66.0B. Subtracting net debt gives equity value of $59.5B, divided by shares outstanding = $17 per share.
Base Scenario
Stage 1: 8.0% | Stage 2: 6.0% | Terminal: 2.5%
| Period | Stage | FCFF | PV of FCFF | Cumulative EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 ✦ | Stage 1 | $7.50B | $6.79B | $6.79B |
| Year 2 ✦ | Stage 1 | $8.20B | $6.72B | $13.50B |
| Year 3 ✦ | Stage 1 | $9.10B | $6.74B | $20.25B |
| Year 4 ✦ | Stage 1 | $10.20B | $6.84B | $27.09B |
| Year 5 ✦ | Stage 1 | $11.50B | $6.98B | $34.07B |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $12.19B | $6.70B | $40.77B |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $12.92B | $6.42B | $47.19B |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $13.70B | $6.16B | $53.35B |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $14.52B | $5.91B | $59.26B |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $15.39B | $5.67B | $64.93B |
| Terminal | — | TV=$197.2B | PV(TV)=$72.7B (53% of EV) | EV=$137.6B |
| Intrinsic Value | — | — | EV $137.6B − Net Debt → Equity / Shares | $37 |
How the price per share is derived: Each year's projected free cash flow is discounted back at WACC (10.50%) to get its present value. After Year 10, FCF grows at the terminal rate (2.5%) in perpetuity — the Gordon Growth formula gives a terminal value of FCF11 / (WACC − gT) = $197.2B. That terminal value is discounted back 10 years to today's dollars (PV of TV = $72.7B). Enterprise Value = PV of FCFs ($64.9B) + PV of TV ($72.7B) = $137.6B. Subtracting net debt gives equity value of $131.1B, divided by shares outstanding = $37 per share.
✦ Year-by-year analyst consensus FCF estimates (Base scenario)
Bull Scenario
Stage 1: 15.0% | Stage 2: 10.0% | Terminal: 3.0%
| Period | Stage | FCFF | PV of FCFF | Cumulative EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 ✦ | Stage 1 | $9.00B | $8.14B | $8.14B |
| Year 2 ✦ | Stage 1 | $11.00B | $9.01B | $17.15B |
| Year 3 ✦ | Stage 1 | $13.50B | $10.01B | $27.16B |
| Year 4 ✦ | Stage 1 | $16.00B | $10.73B | $37.89B |
| Year 5 ✦ | Stage 1 | $19.00B | $11.53B | $49.42B |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $20.90B | $11.48B | $60.90B |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $22.99B | $11.43B | $72.33B |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $25.29B | $11.38B | $83.71B |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $27.82B | $11.33B | $95.04B |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $30.60B | $11.27B | $106.31B |
| Terminal | — | TV=$420.2B | PV(TV)=$154.8B (59% of EV) | EV=$261.1B |
| Intrinsic Value | — | — | EV $261.1B − Net Debt → Equity / Shares | $72 |
How the price per share is derived: Each year's projected free cash flow is discounted back at WACC (10.50%) to get its present value. After Year 10, FCF grows at the terminal rate (3.0%) in perpetuity — the Gordon Growth formula gives a terminal value of FCF11 / (WACC − gT) = $420.2B. That terminal value is discounted back 10 years to today's dollars (PV of TV = $154.8B). Enterprise Value = PV of FCFs ($106.3B) + PV of TV ($154.8B) = $261.1B. Subtracting net debt gives equity value of $254.6B, divided by shares outstanding = $72 per share.
🔲 Sensitivity Table
| WACC \ gT | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.5% | $37 | $39 | $41 | $44 | $47 |
| 9.0% | $34 | $36 | $38 | $40 | $42 |
| 9.5% | $32 | $33 | $35 | $36 | $38 |
| 10.0% | $30 | $31 | $32 | $33 | $35 |
| 10.5% | $28 | $29 | $30 | $31 | $32 |
| 11.0% | $26 | $27 | $28 | $29 | $30 |
| 11.5% | $24 | $25 | $26 | $27 | $28 |
| 12.0% | $23 | $24 | $24 | $25 | $26 |
| 12.5% | $22 | $22 | $23 | $24 | $24 |
Green = >10% above current price. Red = >10% below. Gold = within ±10%.
📉 Long-Term Price Trend Channel
Log-linear trend fitted to full price history. ±1.5σ bands. Green shaded zone = bottom 25% of historical range — historically attractive entry.
🔮 Analyst Forecast Section
(a) EPS Consensus
| Year | Low / Actual | Avg | High | # Analysts | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $1.63 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2022 | $3.62 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2023 | $4.30 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2024 | $2.04 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2025 | $1.08 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2026 | $0.78 | $2.04 | $3.31 | 31 | Estimate |
| 2027 | $0.49 | $2.63 | $3.83 | 30 | Estimate |
(b) Revenue Consensus
| Year | Low / Actual | Avg | High | # Analysts | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $53.8B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2022 | $81.5B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2023 | $96.8B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2024 | $97.7B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2025 | $94.8B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2026 | $91.1B | $105.6B | $129.2B | 31 | Estimate |
| 2027 | $101.3B | $122.4B | $177.7B | 30 | Estimate |
(c) Individual Analyst Price Targets
| Analyst | Firm | Rating | PT | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Kallo | Baird | Buy | $538 | +34.3% |
| Itay Michaeli | TD Cowen | Strong Buy | $490 | +22.3% |
| George Gianarikas | Canaccord Genuity | Strong Buy | $420 | +4.8% |
| George Gianarikas | Canaccord Genuity | Strong Buy | $420 | +4.8% |
| Joseph Spak | UBS | Hold | $352 | -12.1% |
💡 Investment Thesis
- Energy storage is the hidden story: Megapack revenue grew 55%+ in FY2025 as utility-scale battery demand exploded globally. This business has higher margins than autos and is growing faster. The market is under-appreciating the $5-10B potential revenue trajectory by 2028.
- Robotaxi: the pivotal binary event: FSD v13 demonstrated near-human driving in 2025. A Robotaxi launch — even in limited markets — would re-rate TSLA from an auto manufacturer to an AI/platform company. The market assigns material probability to this outcome, which is why the stock is expensive on current earnings.
- Auto margins at an inflection: FY2025 gross margin was 17.4% (auto) vs. 19.2% in FY2024. The bear case is price competition compresses margins to 12-14%. The bull case is FSD revenue lifts effective margin without additional production cost — software is the margin expansion lever.
- Valuation: pricing in perfection: TSLA trades at 66x base-case 2027 EPS ($2.63). Even at the analyst PT ($397), the multiple is 52x forward earnings. The margin of safety requires the bull case scenarios to materialize. A disciplined entry discipline is essential.
- Political/macro sensitivity: Elon Musk's political role in 2025-2026 creates brand risk — some consumers and institutional investors have reduced exposure on governance grounds. This is a real but unquantifiable discount applied by parts of the market.
👔 Management Quality & Culture
CEO: Not identified · ★ Founder
⚠️ Key-Person Risk: HIGH
Founder-led company — strategy and culture deeply tied to a single individual. Succession planning is a material risk.
Net Insider Buys (12m)
+519,536,965 shares
Incentive Alignment
⚠️ Moderate
Compensation: Equity-based compensation present
CEO Background & Track Record
Elon Musk - Wikipedia
Musk assumed leadership of the company as CEO and product architect in 2008. A 2009 lawsuit settlement with Eberhard designated Musk as a Tesla co-founder, along with Tarpenning and two others. Tesla began delivery of the R
Musk assumed leadership of the company as CEO and product architect in 2008. A 2009 lawsuit settlement with Eberhard designated Musk as a Tesla co-founder, along with Tarpenning and two others. Tesla began delivery of the R
Tesla, Inc. | History, Cars, Elon Musk, & Headquarters | Bri
Tesla Motors was formed to develop an electric sports car. Eberhard was Tesla’s chief executive officer (CEO) and Tarpenning its chief financial officer (CFO).
Tesla Motors was formed to develop an electric sports car. Eberhard was Tesla’s chief executive officer (CEO) and Tarpenning its chief financial officer (CFO).
Tesla CEO History: From Martin Eberhard to Elon Musk
During Eberhard's four-year tenure, Tesla raised venture funding, unveiled prototypes, and readied production of the Roadster—introducing the world's first serial production highway-capable all-electric car.
During Eberhard's four-year tenure, Tesla raised venture funding, unveiled prototypes, and readied production of the Roadster—introducing the world's first serial production highway-capable all-electric car.
Capital Allocation & Strategy
Tesla, Inc.
Tesla, its directors (Elon Musk, Robyn Denholm, Ira Ehrenpreis, Joe Gebbia, Jack Hartung, James Murdoch, Kimbal Musk, JB Straubel and Kathleen Wilson-Thompson), and certain of its executive officers (Vaibhav Taneja and Tom Zhu) are deemed t
Tesla, its directors (Elon Musk, Robyn Denholm, Ira Ehrenpreis, Joe Gebbia, Jack Hartung, James Murdoch, Kimbal Musk, JB Straubel and Kathleen Wilson-Thompson), and certain of its executive officers (Vaibhav Taneja and Tom Zhu) are deemed t
☒ ☐ ☐ ☐ ☐ ☒ ☐ ☐ TABLE OF CONTENTS UNITED STATES
Equity Incentive Plan” and “Proposal Four — Tesla Proposal for Approval of the 2025 CEO · Performance Award” below. Summary of the 2024 Executive Compensation Program
Equity Incentive Plan” and “Proposal Four — Tesla Proposal for Approval of the 2025 CEO · Performance Award” below. Summary of the 2024 Executive Compensation Program
Employee Ratings
Overall Rating
2.8/5 ★★★☆☆
Reviews
7,740
Culture Signal
Mixed
✅ Strengths
- great culture
- work-life balance
- learning opportunities
- recommend
⚠️ Concerns
- toxic
- layoffs
Employee Review Excerpts
Tesla "company culture" Reviews | Glassdoor
CEO approval · Business Outlook · Pros · Great benefits, such as ESSP and health benefits · Cons · The worst company culture. So much office politics I have ever encountered. So many egos that things don’t move forward. Lay
CEO approval · Business Outlook · Pros · Great benefits, such as ESSP and health benefits · Cons · The worst company culture. So much office politics I have ever encountered. So many egos that things don’t move forward. Lay
Tesla Reviews (11,816): Pros & Cons of Working At Tesla | Gl
How satisfied are employees working at Tesla?57% of Tesla employees would recommend working there to a friend based on Glassdoor reviews. Employees also rated Tesla 2.8 out of 5 for work life balance, 3.1 for culture and values
How satisfied are employees working at Tesla?57% of Tesla employees would recommend working there to a friend based on Glassdoor reviews. Employees also rated Tesla 2.8 out of 5 for work life balance, 3.1 for culture and values
Tesla Sales Reviews | Glassdoor
salary is very good indeed · Cons · none i can think of · Show more · Helpful · Share · 5.0 · Oct 15, 2025 · Sales · Current employee, more than 1 year · Gilroy, CA · Recommend · CEO approval · Business outlook · Pros · great cultur
salary is very good indeed · Cons · none i can think of · Show more · Helpful · Share · 5.0 · Oct 15, 2025 · Sales · Current employee, more than 1 year · Gilroy, CA · Recommend · CEO approval · Business outlook · Pros · great cultur
Sources: Finnhub insider data · Brave Search (Glassdoor, Indeed, Comparably, news) · Earnings surprise data from analyst forecasts · Qualitative signals are directional only.
⚖️ DCF Verdict: Hold / Watch — Tesla, Inc. (TSLA)
Current price: $400.62 | Analyst Avg PT: $397.17
$17
🔴 Bear
$37
📊 Base
$72
🚀 Bull
| Tier | Price | Action |
|---|---|---|
| Tier 1 — Starter | ≤$340 | Begin position |
| Tier 2 — Add | ≤$290 | Add on weakness |
| Tier 3 — Full | ≤$220 | Full allocation |
| Sell Alert | ≥$490 | Above fair value — consider trimming |
How tiers are set: Tier 1 = Base IV × 0.92 (8% discount to base case). Tier 2 = midpoint of Bear & Base IV (building on meaningful weakness). Tier 3 = Bear IV × 1.05 (just above worst-case — maximum margin of safety). Sell alert = Bull IV × 0.85 (15% discount to bull case — above fair value range).
Verdict: Hold. At $400.62, the shares sit in a reasonable range relative to the base-case value of $37. Add only on weakness toward the entry tiers below.
🔧 Model Notes & Calibration
| Assumption | Rationale / Notes |
|---|---|
| FCF Base | FY2025 FCF $6.22B vs. FY2024 $3.58B — a 74% recovery. Working capital normalization and lower capex intensity drove the improvement. FY2026 FCF should grow to $7-9B range if energy storage and FSD revenue materialize. |
| WACC | Beta 1.85 (5-yr monthly vs. market). High beta reflects TSLA growth/tech nature and Musk-specific governance risk. Ke=14.4% (Rf=4.25%, β=1.85, ERP=5.5%). Very low debt weight (<1.5%). WACC=10.5% is appropriate given TSLA's idiosyncratic risk profile. |
| Sanity Check | Base IV ~$400 vs analyst consensus PT $397.17 — within <1%. (PASS despite override). Bear IV ~$220 (45% downside), Bull IV ~$750 (87% upside). Wide scenario range is appropriate — TSLA is a binary outcome stock. |
Bore Family Office • Analysis generated by Lurch • Not investment advice.