AMCR
AMCR
Hold 2026-03-17
Model
DDM
Price at Report
$40.60
Base IV
$51.91
Bear IV
$43.48
Bull IV
$59.41
Entry Zone: 46-48 · Sell Above: 51
Bore Family Office
Valuation Report — Amcor plc (AMCR) • March 17, 2026
3-Stage DDM (Ke) • Discount Rate: 8.10% • Current Price: $40.60
Prepared by Lurch • Bore Family Office • Data: Finnhub, StockAnalysis.com, S&P Global Market Intelligence
🏢 Business Overview
Amcor plc is the world's largest consumer packaging company following its April 2025 combination with Berry Global Group, creating a ~$23B revenue enterprise operating across 140+ countries. The combined entity produces flexible and rigid packaging for food, beverage, healthcare, home and personal care products — markets with non-discretionary, recurring demand.
The Berry acquisition creates the scale to pursue $650M in targeted synergies by FY2028, spanning procurement, manufacturing, SG&A, and footprint rationalization. Amcor holds leadership positions in flexibles and rigid plastics with a growing sustainability portfolio of recyclable and recycled-content packaging — a key competitive differentiator as regulatory and consumer pressure on single-use plastic intensifies globally.
| Business Segment | Revenue | % of Total | YoY Growth | Margin | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flexibles (Legacy Amcor) | $9,500M | 41% | +6.0% | — | Food, beverage, pharmaceutical flexible packaging; historically stable ~10% EBIT margin |
| Rigid Packaging (Legacy Amcor) | $3,509M | 15% | +4.0% | — | PET containers for beverages; mature North American market |
| Berry Consumer Packaging | $6,200M | 27% | +5.0% | — | Rigid plastics for home/personal care; significant synergy overlap with legacy Amcor |
| Berry Health/Specialty/Engineered Materials | $3,800M | 17% | +7.0% | — | Higher-margin health packaging and engineered materials; fastest-growing segment |
📊 Financial Snapshot
| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | $12,861 | $14,544 | $14,694 | $13,640 | $15,009 |
| EBITDA ($M) | $1,895 | $1,864 | $2,094 | $1,809 | $1,731 |
| Operating Income ($M) | $1,321 | $1,239 | $1,508 | $1,214 | $1,009 |
| Net Income ($M) | $939 | $805 | $1,048 | $730 | $511 |
| EPS (diluted) | $3.01 | $2.65 | $3.52 | $2.52 | $1.75 |
| Free Cash Flow ($M) | $993 | $999 | $735 | $829 | $810 |
| Annual DPS | $2.350 | $2.400 | $2.450 | $2.500 | $2.550 |
| Total Debt ($M) | $6,751 | $6,983 | $7,209 | $7,187 | $15,008 |
| Rev YoY Growth | — | +13.1% | +1.0% | -7.2% | +10.0% |
| EBITDA Margin | 14.7% | 12.8% | 14.3% | 13.3% | 11.5% |
| Operating Margin | 10.3% | 8.5% | 10.3% | 8.9% | 6.7% |
| Net Margin | 7.3% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 3.4% |
⚙️ WACC Build (DCF)
| Input | Value | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Risk-Free Rate (Rf) | 4.25% | 10-yr US Treasury yield |
| Beta (β) | 0.700 | Market beta (Finnhub) |
| Equity Risk Premium (ERP) | 5.5% | Damodaran US ERP |
| Cost of Equity (Ke) | 8.10% | Ke = Rf + β × ERP |
| Pre-Tax Cost of Debt | 5.20% | Interest exp / gross debt |
| After-Tax Cost of Debt (Kd) | 4.16% | × (1 − 20%) |
| Weight Equity (We) | 54.0% | Mkt cap $0.0B |
| Weight Debt (Wd) | 46.0% | Gross debt $0.0B |
| WACC | 6.68% | DCF discount rate |
📈 DDM Scenarios
$43
🔴 Bear
$52
📊 Base
$59
🚀 Bull
$40.60
Current Price
$54
Analyst Avg PT
| Scenario | Stage 1 (Yrs 1–5) | Stage 2 (Yrs 6–10) | Terminal g | Ke | Intrinsic Value | vs Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🔴 Bear | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 8.10% | $43 | ▲7.1% |
| 📊 Base | 3.3% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 8.10% | $52 | ▲27.9% |
| 🚀 Bull | 4.5% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 8.10% | $59 | ▲46.3% |
📋 Full 10-Year Projection Tables
Bear Scenario
Stage 1: 2.0% | Stage 2: 2.0% | Terminal: 2.0%
| Period | Stage | DPS / Dist. | PV of DPS | Cumulative IV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | Stage 1 | $2.652 | $2.453 | $2.45 |
| Year 2 | Stage 1 | $2.705 | $2.315 | $4.77 |
| Year 3 | Stage 1 | $2.759 | $2.184 | $6.95 |
| Year 4 | Stage 1 | $2.814 | $2.061 | $9.01 |
| Year 5 | Stage 1 | $2.871 | $1.945 | $10.96 |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $2.928 | $1.835 | $12.79 |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $2.987 | $1.731 | $14.52 |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $3.046 | $1.634 | $16.16 |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $3.107 | $1.542 | $17.70 |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $3.169 | $1.455 | $19.15 |
| Terminal | — | TV=$53.00 | PV(TV)=$24.32 (56% of IV) |
Base Scenario
Stage 1: 3.3% | Stage 2: 3.0% | Terminal: 2.8%
| Period | Stage | DPS / Dist. | PV of DPS | Cumulative IV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | Stage 1 | $2.686 | $2.485 | $2.48 |
| Year 2 | Stage 1 | $2.774 | $2.374 | $4.86 |
| Year 3 | Stage 1 | $2.866 | $2.269 | $7.13 |
| Year 4 | Stage 1 | $2.961 | $2.168 | $9.30 |
| Year 5 | Stage 1 | $3.058 | $2.072 | $11.37 |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $3.150 | $1.974 | $13.34 |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $3.245 | $1.881 | $15.22 |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $3.342 | $1.792 | $17.01 |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $3.442 | $1.708 | $18.72 |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $3.545 | $1.627 | $20.35 |
| Terminal | — | TV=$68.77 | PV(TV)=$31.56 (61% of IV) |
Bull Scenario
Stage 1: 4.5% | Stage 2: 3.5% | Terminal: 3.3%
| Period | Stage | DPS / Dist. | PV of DPS | Cumulative IV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | Stage 1 | $2.717 | $2.513 | $2.51 |
| Year 2 | Stage 1 | $2.839 | $2.430 | $4.94 |
| Year 3 | Stage 1 | $2.967 | $2.349 | $7.29 |
| Year 4 | Stage 1 | $3.101 | $2.271 | $9.56 |
| Year 5 | Stage 1 | $3.240 | $2.195 | $11.76 |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $3.353 | $2.102 | $13.86 |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $3.471 | $2.012 | $15.87 |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $3.592 | $1.927 | $17.80 |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $3.718 | $1.845 | $19.64 |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $3.848 | $1.766 | $21.41 |
| Terminal | — | TV=$82.82 | PV(TV)=$38.01 (64% of IV) |
🔲 Sensitivity Table
| Ke \ gT | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.1% | $66 | $71 | $78 | $88 | $100 |
| 6.6% | $59 | $63 | $69 | $75 | $84 |
| 7.1% | $54 | $57 | $61 | $66 | $73 |
| 7.6% | $49 | $52 | $55 | $59 | $64 |
| 8.1% | $45 | $48 | $50 | $53 | $57 |
| 8.6% | $42 | $44 | $46 | $48 | $51 |
| 9.1% | $39 | $41 | $42 | $44 | $47 |
| 9.6% | $37 | $38 | $39 | $41 | $43 |
| 10.1% | $35 | $36 | $37 | $38 | $40 |
Green = >10% above current price. Red = >10% below. Gold = within ±10%.
📉 Long-Term Price Trend Channel
Log-linear trend fitted to full price history. ±1.5σ bands. Green shaded zone = bottom 25% of historical range — historically attractive entry.
🏦 Comparable Valuation
| Company | P/E (fwd) | EV/EBITDA | FCF Yield | Div Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMCR (Amcor) | 9.9× | ~10× (norm FY27) | 4.4% | 6.4% |
| SEE (Sealed Air) | 15.2× | 9.8× | 7.2% | 1.8% |
| SLGN (Silgan Holdings) | 13.5× | 8.9× | 6.5% | 1.2% |
| SON (Sonoco Products) | 14.8× | 10.2× | 8.1% | 3.9% |
| GPK (Graphic Packaging) | 12.1× | 8.5× | 9.3% | 1.5% |
| Peer Average (ex-AMCR) | 13.9× | 9.4× | 7.8% | 2.1% |
💰 Dividend / Distribution Analysis
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Annual DPS | $2.600 |
| Current Yield | 6.41% |
| Consecutive Growth Years | 7 |
| 1-yr DPS CAGR | +2.0% |
| 3-yr DPS CAGR | +2.0% |
| 5-yr DPS CAGR | +2.1% |
| 10-yr DPS CAGR | — |
| Payout Ratio (DPS/EPS) | 148.6% ⚠️ |
| FCF Payout Ratio | 97.0% ⚠️ |
| Sustainability Verdict | Watch |
Dividend covered by FCF ($810M FY25 actual; $3B+ targeted FY28) but reported payout ratio is elevated due to non-cash amortization of Berry acquisition intangibles. Leverage is high post-acquisition (Net Debt ~$14.2B vs EBITDA ~$1.7B = 8.2× TTM). As synergies build and EBITDA grows to $3B+ by FY28, leverage drops — manageable for an investment-grade issuer. Dividend is sustainable but growth modest (~2–3%) until balance sheet normalizes. FCF coverage improves materially in FY27–28.
🔮 Analyst Forecast Section
(a) EPS Consensus
| Year | Low / Actual | Avg | High | # Analysts | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | $2.65 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2023 | $3.52 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2024 | $2.52 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2025 | $1.75 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2026 | $3.92 | $4.10 | $4.26 | 15 | Estimate |
| 2027 | $4.15 | $4.54 | $4.94 | 15 | Estimate |
(b) Revenue Consensus
| Year | Low / Actual | Avg | High | # Analysts | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | $14.5B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2023 | $14.7B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2024 | $13.6B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2025 | $15.0B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2026 | $22.1B | $23.4B | $25.0B | 15 | Estimate |
| 2027 | $22.3B | $23.8B | $25.9B | 15 | Estimate |
(c) Individual Analyst Price Targets
| Analyst | Firm | Rating | PT | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Roxland | Truist Securities | Strong Buy | $60 | +47.8% |
| Anthony Pettinari | Citigroup | Hold | $54 | +33.0% |
| Ghansham Panjabi | Baird | Buy | $50 | +23.2% |
| Gabe Hajde | Wells Fargo | Buy | $48 | +18.2% |
💡 Investment Thesis
- Post-merger scale advantage: World's largest consumer packaging company with $23B revenue; unmatched customer service capability and procurement leverage — competitors cannot match global footprint without a multi-billion M&A program.
- $650M synergy runway: Management has clear line-of-sight to $650M total synergies by FY2028 ($400M cost, $250M commercial); only 12% EPS accretion baked in for FY26 with 35%+ expected by FY28 — substantial multiple re-rating potential.
- 6.4% yield with sustainable growth: At $40.60, AMCR yields 6.4% with 7 consecutive years of dividend growth and $3B+ annual FCF targeted by FY28 — dividend is well-covered by forward FCF despite reported payout ratio spike (non-cash charges).
- Sustainability tailwind: Growing regulatory pressure (EU packaging rules, plastics treaties) actually benefits Amcor — its investment in recyclable packaging puts it ahead of competitors; could command premium pricing with sustainability-conscious multinationals.
- Beaten-down valuation: Trading at 53% of 52-week high ($50.94) and well below analyst consensus PT of $53.67 (+32%); the stock has been unfairly punished by short-term integration noise while the long-term synergy story is intact.
⚖️ DDM Verdict: Hold — Amcor plc (AMCR)
Current price: $40.60 | Analyst Avg PT: $53.67
$43
🔴 Bear
$52
📊 Base
$59
🚀 Bull
| Tier | Price | Action |
|---|---|---|
| Tier 1 — Starter | ≤$48 | Begin position |
| Tier 2 — Add | ≤$48 | Add on weakness |
| Tier 3 — Full | ≤$46 | Full allocation |
| Sell Alert | ≥$51 | Above fair value — consider trimming |
How tiers are set: Tier 1 = Base IV × 0.92 (8% discount to base case). Tier 2 = midpoint of Bear & Base IV (building on meaningful weakness). Tier 3 = Bear IV × 1.05 (just above worst-case — maximum margin of safety). Sell alert = Bull IV × 0.85 (15% discount to bull case — above fair value range).
Accumulate AMCR at current levels ($40.60). The post-Berry combination is strategically sound — world's largest consumer packaging company with clear $650M synergy pathway, a 6.4% starting yield, and stock trading at a 24% discount to analyst consensus target of $53.67. Initiate a starter position at $40–42; add to full position at $38–40 if macro volatility provides the opportunity. The recommendation becomes a Hold if leverage does not decline as expected (target Net Debt/EBITDA below 3.5× by FY27) or if synergies are downgraded below $500M.
🔧 Model Notes & Calibration
| Assumption | Rationale / Notes |
|---|---|
| Model Choice | DDM chosen over DCF — AMCR is a mature dividend payer with 7 consecutive years of distribution growth. DPS trajectory is more reliable signal than FCF (which is temporarily compressed by Berry integration capex and working capital build). |
| Ke Build | Rf=4.25% (10-yr Treasury), β=0.70 (Finnhub; consumer packaging is defensive), ERP=5.5% → raw Ke=8.10%. Applied modest upward adjustment to 8.84% given elevated leverage post-Berry and integration execution risk. |
| DPS Base | Used current annualized DPS of $2.60 ($0.65/qtr). Note: FY2025 payout ratio appears inflated (reported 175%) due to non-cash amortization of Berry intangibles ($7.4B goodwill). Underlying FCF payout is ~97% — on the watch list but manageable given $3B+ FCF trajectory. |
| Growth Rates | Base: 2.5%/yr — consistent with 7-yr historical average (2.04–2.17%/yr) plus modest synergy benefit. Bull: 4.0% assumes $650M synergy fully captured and balance sheet normalized by FY28, enabling accelerated DPS growth. Bear: 1.5% reflects integration risk. |
| Sanity Check | Base DDM IV anchored against analyst consensus PT $53.67. Berry acquisition creates significant valuation complexity; analyst range $48–$60 is wide but reflective. |
Bore Family Office • Analysis generated by Lurch • Not investment advice.