Bore Family Office
Valuation Report — Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) • March 11, 2026
Unlevered DCF (FCFF @ WACC) • Discount Rate: 11.90% • Current Price: $203.23
Prepared by Lurch • Bore Family Office • Data: Finnhub, StockAnalysis.com, S&P Global Market Intelligence
🏢 Business Overview
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) is a global semiconductor company founded in 1969 and headquartered
in Santa Clara, CA. AMD designs CPUs, GPUs, and adaptive computing solutions for data centers,
gaming, embedded systems, and client PCs. The 2022 acquisition of Xilinx ($49B) transformed AMD
into a diversified chip platform company, adding FPGAs and adaptive SoCs. AMD competes directly
with Intel in CPUs and NVIDIA in AI/data center GPUs — its MI300X accelerator has become a
meaningful AI training/inference alternative.
Revenue surged to $34.6B in FY2025 (+34% YoY) driven by data center GPU/CPU momentum.
FCF exploded to $6.7B (+178% YoY), reflecting operating leverage as the AI buildout accelerated.
📊 Financial Snapshot
| Metric | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|
| Revenue ($M) | $16,434 | $23,601 | $22,680 | $25,785 | $34,639 |
| EBITDA ($M) | $4,111 | $5,526 | $3,854 | $4,964 | $6,698 |
| Operating Income ($M) | $3,648 | $1,264 | $401 | $1,900 | $3,694 |
| Net Income ($M) | $3,156 | $1,306 | $838 | $1,608 | $4,309 |
| EPS (diluted) | $2.57 | $0.84 | $0.53 | $1.00 | $2.65 |
| Free Cash Flow ($M) | $3,220 | $3,115 | $1,121 | $2,405 | $6,697 |
| Annual DPS | $0.000 | $0.000 | $0.000 | $0.000 | $0.000 |
| Total Debt ($M) | $661 | $2,863 | $3,003 | $2,212 | $3,847 |
| Rev YoY Growth | — | +43.6% | -3.9% | +13.7% | +34.3% |
📈 DCF Scenarios
| Scenario | Stage 1 (Yrs 1–5) | Stage 2 (Yrs 6–10) | Terminal g | WACC | Intrinsic Value | vs Price |
|---|
| 🔴 Bear | 23.0% | 12.0% | 2.5% | 11.90% | $136 | ▼32.9% |
| 📊 Base | 35.0% | 18.0% | 3.0% | 11.90% | $261 | ▲28.3% |
| 🚀 Bull | 46.0% | 25.0% | 3.5% | 11.90% | $494 | ▲143.0% |
📋 Full 10-Year Projection Tables
Bear Scenario
Stage 1: 23.0% | Stage 2: 12.0% | Terminal: 2.5%
| Period | Stage | FCFF | PV of FCFF | Cumulative EV |
|---|
| Year 1 | Stage 1 | $8.24B | $7.36B | $7.36B |
| Year 2 | Stage 1 | $10.13B | $8.09B | $15.45B |
| Year 3 | Stage 1 | $12.46B | $8.89B | $24.35B |
| Year 4 | Stage 1 | $15.33B | $9.78B | $34.12B |
| Year 5 | Stage 1 | $18.85B | $10.75B | $44.87B |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $21.12B | $10.76B | $55.63B |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $23.65B | $10.77B | $66.39B |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $26.49B | $10.78B | $77.17B |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $29.67B | $10.78B | $87.95B |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $33.23B | $10.79B | $98.74B |
| Terminal | — | TV=$362.3B | PV(TV)=$117.7B (54% of EV) | EV=$216.4B |
Base Scenario
Stage 1: 35.0% | Stage 2: 18.0% | Terminal: 3.0%
| Period | Stage | FCFF | PV of FCFF | Cumulative EV |
|---|
| Year 1 | Stage 1 | $9.04B | $8.08B | $8.08B |
| Year 2 | Stage 1 | $12.21B | $9.75B | $17.83B |
| Year 3 | Stage 1 | $16.48B | $11.76B | $29.59B |
| Year 4 | Stage 1 | $22.24B | $14.19B | $43.77B |
| Year 5 | Stage 1 | $30.03B | $17.12B | $60.89B |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $35.43B | $18.05B | $78.94B |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $41.81B | $19.03B | $97.97B |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $49.34B | $20.07B | $118.04B |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $58.22B | $21.16B | $139.21B |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $68.70B | $22.32B | $161.52B |
| Terminal | — | TV=$795.1B | PV(TV)=$258.3B (62% of EV) | EV=$419.8B |
Bull Scenario
Stage 1: 46.0% | Stage 2: 25.0% | Terminal: 3.5%
| Period | Stage | FCFF | PV of FCFF | Cumulative EV |
|---|
| Year 1 | Stage 1 | $9.78B | $8.74B | $8.74B |
| Year 2 | Stage 1 | $14.28B | $11.40B | $20.14B |
| Year 3 | Stage 1 | $20.84B | $14.87B | $35.01B |
| Year 4 | Stage 1 | $30.43B | $19.41B | $54.42B |
| Year 5 | Stage 1 | $44.43B | $25.32B | $79.74B |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $55.53B | $28.29B | $108.03B |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $69.42B | $31.60B | $139.63B |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $86.77B | $35.30B | $174.92B |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $108.46B | $39.43B | $214.35B |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $135.58B | $44.04B | $258.40B |
| Terminal | — | TV=$1670.5B | PV(TV)=$542.7B (68% of EV) | EV=$801.1B |
🔲 Sensitivity Table
| WACC \ gT | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|
| 9.9% | $312 | $326 | $341 | $359 | $379 |
| 10.4% | $290 | $301 | $314 | $329 | $346 |
| 10.9% | $270 | $280 | $291 | $303 | $317 |
| 11.4% | $252 | $260 | $270 | $281 | $293 |
| 11.9% | $236 | $243 | $252 | $261 | $271 |
| 12.4% | $222 | $228 | $235 | $243 | $252 |
| 12.9% | $209 | $214 | $220 | $227 | $235 |
| 13.4% | $197 | $202 | $207 | $213 | $220 |
| 13.9% | $186 | $190 | $195 | $200 | $206 |
Green = >10% above current price. Red = >10% below. Gold = within ±10%.
📉 Long-Term Price Trend Channel
Log-linear trend fitted to full price history. ±1.5σ bands. Green shaded zone = bottom 25% of historical range — historically attractive entry.
🏦 Comparable Valuation
| Company | Ticker | P/E (NTM) | EV/EBITDA | P/FCF | Rev Growth | Rating |
|---|
| Advanced Micro Devices | AMD | 30.2x | ~48x | ~48x | +35% | Buy |
| NVIDIA | NVDA | 28x | 38x | 35x | +69% | Strong Buy |
| Intel | INTC | N/M | ~12x | N/M | -9% | Hold |
| Qualcomm | QCOM | 13x | 11x | 14x | +12% | Hold |
| Broadcom | AVGO | 26x | 24x | 25x | +25% | Buy |
🔮 Analyst Forecast Section
(a) EPS Consensus
| Year | Low / Actual | Avg | High | # Analysts | Type |
|---|
| FY2021 | $2.57 | — | — | — | Actual |
| FY2022 | $0.84 | — | — | — | Actual |
| FY2023 | $0.53 | — | — | — | Actual |
| FY2024 | $1.00 | — | — | — | Actual |
| FY2025 | $2.65 | — | — | — | Actual |
| FY2026 | $5.49 | $6.72 | $10.19 | 59 | Estimate |
| FY2027 | $7.25 | $10.97 | $18.09 | 55 | Estimate |
(b) Revenue Consensus
| Year | Low / Actual | Avg | High | # Analysts | Type |
|---|
| FY2021 | $16.4B | — | — | — | Actual |
| FY2022 | $23.6B | — | — | — | Actual |
| FY2023 | $22.7B | — | — | — | Actual |
| FY2024 | $25.8B | — | — | — | Actual |
| FY2025 | $34.6B | — | — | — | Actual |
| FY2026 | $43.3B | $46.9B | $53.2B | 59 | Estimate |
| FY2027 | $49.0B | $66.9B | $96.9B | 55 | Estimate |
(c) Individual Analyst Price Targets
Consensus: Avg $261.21 | Range $120–$358
| Analyst | Firm | Rating | PT | Upside |
|---|
| Mark Lipacis | Evercore ISI | Buy | $358 | +76.2% |
| Cody Acree | Benchmark | Strong Buy | $325 | +59.9% |
| Vijay Rakesh | Mizuho | Buy | $280 | +37.8% |
| James Schneider | Goldman Sachs | Hold | $240 | +18.1% |
| Srini Pajjuri | RBC Capital | Hold | $230 | +13.2% |
(d) Earnings Surprise History
| Quarter | EPS Act vs Est | EPS Beat/Miss | Rev Act vs Est | Rev Beat/Miss | Guidance |
|---|
| Q4 FY2025 | $1.09 vs $0.95 | +$0.14 ✅ | $7.7B vs $7.5B | +$0.1B ✅ | Q1 in-line |
| Q3 FY2025 | $0.92 vs $0.92 | +$0.00 ✅ | $6.8B vs $6.7B | +$0.1B ✅ | Raised FY |
| Q2 FY2025 | $0.69 vs $0.68 | +$0.01 ✅ | $5.8B vs $5.7B | +$0.1B ✅ | In-line |
| Q1 FY2025 | $0.96 vs $0.94 | +$0.02 ✅ | $7.4B vs $7.1B | +$0.3B ✅ | Raised Q2 |
(e) Confidence Band Commentary
AMD consistently beats consensus on revenue; the wide EPS range ($5.49–$10.19 for FY2026) reflects uncertainty around AI GPU ramp pace vs. NVIDIA competition. Revenue beats have been consistent at 1–5%, suggesting management guides conservatively. The bear case PT of $120 reflects macro/execution risk, not a valuation question.
💡 Investment Thesis
Bull Case: AMD's MI300X/MI350 AI accelerator platform
continues to gain data center share as hyperscalers diversify away from NVIDIA's pricing power.
Data center segment (now majority of revenue) compounds at 35–45% through 2027 as AI inference
deployments scale. FCF conversion improves as the Xilinx integration matures. AMD reaches
$50B+ revenue by 2027, and the stock re-rates to 20× FCF.
Bear Case: NVIDIA maintains dominant AI GPU ecosystem
lock-in (CUDA, NVLink, software stack). AMD loses GPU share and misses FY2026 revenue estimates.
PC/gaming markets remain soft. High beta (2.1) means AMD sells off harder in any macro downturn.
At $120 bear PT, the stock already reflects a 40% decline scenario.
Base Thesis: AMD is the only credible alternative to
NVIDIA in AI compute. It doesn't need to beat NVIDIA — it just needs to capture 15–20% of the
AI accelerator market. With $6.7B FCF and net cash of $6.7B, the balance sheet is fortress-clean.
At $203, the stock trades at 30× forward consensus EPS — modest for a company growing FCF 35%+
annually. But the 52-week range ($76–$267) is a reminder: this is a high-beta name that requires
conviction and patience.
Joseph holds 224 shares @ $179.67 avg cost — currently +13% unrealized. Position is appropriately
sized. The stock has pulled back 24% from 52-week highs, offering a better entry for adding.
⚖️ DCF Verdict: Hold — Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)
Current price: $203.23 | Analyst Avg PT: $261.21
| Tier | Price | Action |
|---|
| Tier 1 — Starter | ≤$240 | Begin position |
| Tier 2 — Add | ≤$199 | Add on weakness |
| Tier 3 — Full | ≤$143 | Full allocation |
| Sell Alert | ≥$420 | Above fair value — consider trimming |
📂 Current Position Summary
| Metric | Value |
|---|
| Shares Held | 224 |
| Average Cost Basis | $179.67 |
| Current Market Value | $45,524 |
| Unrealized P&L | $+5,277 (+13.1%) |
| Annual DPS | — (not provided) |
| Annual Dividend Income | — (DPS missing) |
| Current Yield (at price) | — |
| Yield on Cost | — |
| vs Target (~$200K) | $45,524 / $200,000 (23%) |
Bore Family Office • Analysis generated by Lurch • Not investment advice.
