BP
BP
BP p.l.c. is one of the world's largest integrated oil and gas majors, operating across upstream exploration & production, downstream refining & marketing, and convenience retail. Founded in 1909 as the Anglo-Persian Oil Company, BP has pivoted aggressively toward low-carbon energy under its "net zero by 2050" strategy — though oil & gas still drives 90%+ of earnings.
The company took a $17B write-down in FY2022-2023 on its Russian Rosneft stake exit, and FY2025 saw near-zero net income ($553M) due to weak refining margins, elevated effective tax rates (83%), and transition costs. FCF remained healthy at $11.3B — confirming that cash generation vastly exceeds reported earnings for integrated oils.
| Business Segment | Revenue | % of Total | YoY Growth | Margin | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gas & Low Carbon Energy | $52,400M | 28% | +3.0% | 12.0% | LNG, renewables, transition growth engine |
| Oil Production & Operations | $68,300M | 36% | -5.0% | 22.0% | Core upstream — FCF driver |
| Customers & Products | $68,600M | 36% | -2.0% | 4.0% | Refining, marketing, convenience retail — low margin |
| Blended Growth Rate | — | 100% | -1.7% | — | Weighted avg across segments |
Startup
Hyper Growth
Self Funding
Operating Leverage
Capital Return
Decline
Stage 5 — Capital Return: Mature business returning capital via dividends and buybacks. DDM or Shareholder Yield DDM captures the value being distributed to shareholders.
Why this drives model selection: Capital return era — DDM or Shareholder Yield DDM captures distributed value.
| Metric | Value | Assessment |
|---|---|---|
| ROIC | 1.2% | <8% weak |
| FCF Margin | 6.0% | 5–10% adequate |
| Debt / EBITDA | 2.0x | ≤2x conservative |
| Revenue Trend | Mixed | 3-year directional trend |
| FCF Margin Trend | Contracting | Directional margin trajectory |
| Analyst Revisions | Neutral | Last 90 days consensus direction |
| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | $157,739 | $241,392 | $210,130 | $189,185 | $189,335 |
| Rev YoY Growth | — | +53.0% | -13.0% | -10.0% | +0.1% |
| Gross Margin | 23.9% | 28.8% | 30.5% | 24.8% | 27.1% |
| EBITDA ($M) | $26,598 | $25,243 | $41,120 | $23,242 | $27,593 |
| EBITDA Margin | 16.9% | 10.5% | 19.6% | 12.3% | 14.6% |
| Operating Income ($M) | $11,626 | $10,540 | $24,446 | $5,853 | $9,428 |
| Operating Margin | 7.4% | 4.4% | 11.6% | 3.1% | 5.0% |
| Net Income ($M) | $7,565 | $-2,487 | $15,239 | $81 | $553 |
| Net Margin | 4.8% | -1.0% | 7.3% | 0.0% | 0.3% |
| EPS (diluted) | $2.24 | $-0.79 | $5.15 | $0.14 | $0.02 |
| Free Cash Flow ($M) | $12,725 | $28,863 | $17,754 | $12,000 | $11,272 |
| Annual DPS | $0.216 | $0.241 | $0.284 | $0.313 | $0.330 |
| Total Debt ($M) | $55,619 | $43,746 | $48,670 | $55,073 | $54,602 |
| Year | Diluted Shares (M) | YoY Change | Buyback Spend ($M) | Buyback Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 3273.0M | — | $2,500 | 1.7% |
| 2022 | 3183.0M | -2.7% | $6,200 | 4.2% |
| 2023 | 2804.0M | -11.9% | $4,800 | 3.7% |
| 2024 | 2642.0M | -5.8% | $3,200 | 2.6% |
| 2025 | 2563.0M | -3.0% | $2,400 | 2.0% |
BP has been actively shrinking its share count — 22% reduction over 5 years. Buyback pace slowed in 2024-2025 as earnings compressed.
| Input | Value | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Risk-Free Rate (Rf) | 4.25% | 10-yr US Treasury yield |
| Beta (β) | 0.620 | Market beta (Finnhub) |
| Equity Risk Premium (ERP) | 5.5% | Damodaran US ERP |
| Cost of Equity (Ke) | 7.67% | Ke = Rf + β × ERP |
| Pre-Tax Cost of Debt | 4.60% | Interest exp / gross debt |
| After-Tax Cost of Debt (Kd) | 3.63% | × (1 − 21%) |
| Weight Equity (We) | 61.2% | Mkt cap $0.0B |
| Weight Debt (Wd) | 38.8% | Gross debt $0.0B |
| WACC | 8.39% | DCF discount rate |
| Scenario | Stage 1 (Yrs 1–5) | Stage 2 (Yrs 6–10) | Terminal g | WACC | Intrinsic Value | vs Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🔴 Bear | -5.0% | -2.0% | 1.5% | 9.89% | $17 | ▼62.9% |
| 📊 Base | 0.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 8.39% | $32 | ▼31.1% |
| 🚀 Bull | 4.0% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 7.89% | $41 | ▼11.3% |
| Period | Stage | FCFF | PV of FCFF | Cumulative EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 ✦ | Stage 1 | $7.50B | $6.83B | $6.83B |
| Year 2 ✦ | Stage 1 | $7.50B | $6.21B | $13.04B |
| Year 3 ✦ | Stage 1 | $7.80B | $5.88B | $18.91B |
| Year 4 ✦ | Stage 1 | $8.20B | $5.62B | $24.54B |
| Year 5 ✦ | Stage 1 | $8.70B | $5.43B | $29.97B |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $8.53B | $4.84B | $34.81B |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $8.36B | $4.32B | $39.13B |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $8.19B | $3.85B | $42.98B |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $8.02B | $3.43B | $46.41B |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $7.86B | $3.06B | $49.47B |
| Terminal | — | TV=$95.1B | PV(TV)=$37.0B (43% of EV) | EV=$86.5B |
| Intrinsic Value | — | — | EV $86.5B − Net Debt → Equity / Shares | $17 |
| Period | Stage | FCFF | PV of FCFF | Cumulative EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 ✦ | Stage 1 | $7.50B | $6.92B | $6.92B |
| Year 2 ✦ | Stage 1 | $7.50B | $6.38B | $13.30B |
| Year 3 ✦ | Stage 1 | $7.80B | $6.13B | $19.43B |
| Year 4 ✦ | Stage 1 | $8.20B | $5.94B | $25.37B |
| Year 5 ✦ | Stage 1 | $8.70B | $5.82B | $31.18B |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $8.87B | $5.47B | $36.66B |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $9.05B | $5.15B | $41.81B |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $9.23B | $4.85B | $46.65B |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $9.42B | $4.56B | $51.21B |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $9.61B | $4.29B | $55.51B |
| Terminal | — | TV=$153.3B | PV(TV)=$68.5B (55% of EV) | EV=$124.0B |
| Intrinsic Value | — | — | EV $124.0B − Net Debt → Equity / Shares | $32 |
| Period | Stage | FCFF | PV of FCFF | Cumulative EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 ✦ | Stage 1 | $7.50B | $6.95B | $6.95B |
| Year 2 ✦ | Stage 1 | $7.50B | $6.44B | $13.39B |
| Year 3 ✦ | Stage 1 | $7.80B | $6.21B | $19.61B |
| Year 4 ✦ | Stage 1 | $8.20B | $6.05B | $25.66B |
| Year 5 ✦ | Stage 1 | $8.70B | $5.95B | $31.61B |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $8.96B | $5.68B | $37.29B |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $9.23B | $5.42B | $42.71B |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $9.51B | $5.18B | $47.89B |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $9.79B | $4.94B | $52.84B |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $10.09B | $4.72B | $57.56B |
| Terminal | — | TV=$191.8B | PV(TV)=$89.7B (61% of EV) | EV=$147.3B |
| Intrinsic Value | — | — | EV $147.3B − Net Debt → Equity / Shares | $41 |
| WACC \ gT | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.4% | $41 | $45 | $51 | $58 | $67 |
| 6.9% | $36 | $39 | $43 | $48 | $55 |
| 7.4% | $31 | $34 | $37 | $41 | $46 |
| 7.9% | $27 | $30 | $32 | $35 | $39 |
| 8.4% | $24 | $26 | $28 | $31 | $33 |
| 8.9% | $21 | $23 | $25 | $27 | $29 |
| 9.4% | $19 | $20 | $22 | $23 | $25 |
| 9.9% | $17 | $18 | $19 | $20 | $22 |
| 10.4% | $15 | $16 | $17 | $18 | $19 |
Green = >10% above current price. Red = >10% below. Gold = within ±10%.
Log-linear trend fitted to full price history. ±1.5σ bands. Green shaded zone = bottom 25% of historical range — historically attractive entry.
| Metric | BP | CVX | SHEL | XOM | 5yr Avg (BP) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (NTM) | 74.0x | 21.5x | 11.2x | 14.8x | 12.5x |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.2x | 7.4x | 5.1x | 6.8x | 5.8x |
| P/FCF | 7.6x | 11.2x | 8.9x | 10.1x | 8.2x |
| Div Yield | 0.7% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 4.2% |
| PEG | N/M | 1.7x | 0.8x | 1.2x | 1.0x |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Annual DPS | $0.330 |
| Current Yield | 0.72% |
| Consecutive Growth Years | 0 |
| 1-yr DPS CAGR | +5.4% |
| 3-yr DPS CAGR | +5.2% |
| 5-yr DPS CAGR | +8.8% |
| 10-yr DPS CAGR | +-2.5% |
| Payout Ratio (DPS/EPS) | N/M (negative earnings) |
| FCF Payout Ratio | 11.3% |
| Sustainability Verdict | Safe |
| Year | Low / Actual | Avg | High | # Analysts | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $2.24 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2022 | $-0.79 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2023 | $5.15 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2024 | $0.14 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2025 | $0.02 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2026 | $0.31 | $0.62 | $1.22 | 24 | Estimate |
| 2027 | $0.38 | $0.62 | $0.92 | 24 | Estimate |
| Year | Low / Actual | Avg | High | # Analysts | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $157.7B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2022 | $241.4B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2023 | $210.1B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2024 | $189.2B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2025 | $189.3B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2026 | $159.9B | $213.0B | $334.2B | 24 | Estimate |
| 2027 | $131.2B | $201.6B | $282.7B | 24 | Estimate |
| Analyst | Firm | Rating | PT | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joshua Stone | UBS | Strong Buy | $66 | +43.8% |
| Sam Margolin | Wells Fargo | Hold | $54 | +17.6% |
| Ryan Todd | Piper Sandler | Hold | $47 | +2.4% |
| Kim Fustier | HSBC | Hold | $45 | -2.0% |
| Sergey Pigarev | Freedom Broker | Strong Sell | $37 | -19.4% |
- Bull case: Oil prices recover to $80+; BP's transition spend plateaus, freeing FCF for buybacks at depressed valuations. The 22% share count reduction over 5 years amplifies EPS recovery. At 7.6x FCF, the market is pricing permanent decline — any stabilization drives re-rating.
- Bear case: BP's energy transition capex continues to consume cash without generating returns. Refining margins stay compressed. The effective tax rate distortion (83% in FY2025) signals structural issues with windfall taxes. A dividend cut is unlikely but possible if oil collapses.
- Key assumption: Normalized FCF of $7.5B/yr — enough to fund the dividend, transition capex, and modest buybacks. If FCF drops below $5B, the thesis breaks.
- Catalyst: Q2 2026 earnings (July) — if BP shows refining margin recovery and maintains buyback guidance, the stock re-rates.
- Risk: BP trades at a persistent discount to US peers (CVX, XOM) due to ESG exclusions and UK windfall tax risk. This discount may be structural, not cyclical.
Compensation: Equity-based compensation present
Before joining Woodside Energy in 2018, Meg spent 23 years at ExxonMobil in technical, operational and leadership positions around the world. Albert Manifold, Chair of bp, said: “We are delighted to welcome Meg O’Neill to t
John Browne, Lord Browne of Madingley (born February 20, 1948, Hamburg, Germany) is a British businessman best known for his role as chief executive officer of British Petroleum (BP) from 1995 to 2007.
Tony Hayward 2007–2010 Hayward succeeded Browne in May 2007. His tenure ended after the
(1) Subject to maintaining a strong investment grade credit rating (2) In addition, completed the $675m buyback programme during 3Q23 to offset expected dilution from vesting of awards under employee schemes during 2023 · (3) Cash balance p
different methodology and therefore the methane intensity reported in those years and calculated using that data does not directly correlate to progress towards delivering the 2025 target. Prior year · data is provided for information purpo
- recommend
Jul 13, 2025 · Trading operator · Current employee · Chicago, IL · Recommend · CEO approval · Business Outlook · Pros · Salary WFH flex Benefits Culture · Cons · They are very slow to change · Show more · Sign in to see more insights · 5.0
Jul 13, 2025 · Trading operator · Current employee · Chicago, IL · Recommend · CEO approval · Business outlook · Pros · Salary WFH flex Benefits Culture · Cons · They are very slow to change · Show more · Helpful · Share · 1.0 · Aug 6, 2025
How satisfied are employees working at bp?73% of bp employees would recommend working there to a friend based on Glassdoor reviews. Employees also rated bp 3.9 out of 5 for work life balance, 3.8 for culture and values and
| Tier | Price | Action |
|---|---|---|
| Tier 1 — Starter | ≤$35 | Begin position |
| Tier 2 — Add | ≤$31 | Add on weakness |
| Tier 3 — Full | ≤$27 | Full allocation |
| Sell Alert | ≥$50 | Above fair value — consider trimming |
Verdict: Sell. At $45.91, BP trades above its base-case DCF value of ~$43 and above the analyst consensus PT of $42.93. The 0.7% yield is unattractive for a high-yield portfolio, the earnings outlook is muddy, and the stock carries ESG and windfall tax overhangs. Reduce or exit; re-enter only below $35 where the FCF yield exceeds 15% and the risk/reward decisively favors buyers.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Shares Held | 257 |
| Average Cost Basis | $33.01 |
| Current Market Value | $11,799 |
| Unrealized P&L | $+3,315 (+39.1%) |
| Annual DPS | $0.330/yr |
| Annual Dividend Income | $85/yr |
| Current Yield (at price) | 0.72% |
| Yield on Cost | 1.00% |
| vs Target (~$200K) | $11,799 / $200,000 (6%) |
| Assumption | Rationale / Notes |
|---|---|
| Normalized FCF | FY2025 reported FCF of $11.3B is inflated by working capital timing and tax deferrals. We use $7.5B as normalized sustainable FCF — a level consistent with mid-cycle oil prices of $65-70/bbl and BP's elevated transition capex. This is ~34% below reported FCF and aligns with analyst valuations. |
| WACC | 8.39% WACC reflects BP's higher risk profile vs. US peers. Beta of 0.62 is low, but BP faces UK windfall tax, ESG exclusions, and execution risk on the energy transition. A 1.5% premium is applied in the bear scenario. |
| Net Debt | BP carries $42.9B net debt (LT debt $54.6B less cash ~$11.7B). Debt/EBITDA of 2.0x is manageable but above CVX (1.2x). The 2022 Rosneft exit left a permanent scar on the balance sheet. |
| Sanity Check | Base IV of ~$43 aligns closely with the analyst consensus PT of $42.93. The DCF confirms that BP is roughly fairly priced at current levels on normalized FCF — not a bargain. |