CLFD
CLFD
Accumulate 2026-03-12
Model
DCF
Price at Report
$29.41
Base IV
$43.88
Bear IV
$26.54
Bull IV
$94.27
Entry Zone: 20-30 · Sell Above: 55
Bore Family Office
Valuation Report — Clearfield (CLFD) • March 12, 2026
Unlevered DCF (FCFF @ WACC) • Discount Rate: 11.50% • Current Price: $29.41
Prepared by Lurch • Bore Family Office • Data: Finnhub, StockAnalysis.com, S&P Global Market Intelligence
🏢 Business Overview
Clearfield is a leading U.S. manufacturer of fiber optic connectivity, fiber management, and fiber protection equipment for broadband networks. The company sells to telephone companies, cable operators, municipalities, and electric co-ops deploying fiber-to-the-home (FTTH) networks. Clearfield experienced a dramatic revenue peak in FY2022 ($271M) driven by post-pandemic fiber buildout demand, followed by a severe contraction in FY2024 (-44%) as telcos destocked inventory. The company is now in recovery, with the U.S. government's $42.5B BEAD (Broadband Equity, Access, and Deployment) program expected to accelerate rural fiber deployment significantly in 2026–2028, creating a powerful multi-year tailwind for Clearfield's product set.
| Business Segment | Revenue | % of Total | YoY Growth | Margin | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Community Broadband (FieldSmart) | $105M | 70% | +22.0% | — | Rural/municipal fiber deployments; primary BEAD beneficiary |
| National Carriers & MSOs | $45M | 30% | +15.0% | — | AT&T, Verizon, cable operators; recovering from inventory destocking |
📊 Financial Snapshot
| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | $141 | $271 | $226 | $126 | $150 |
| EBITDA ($M) | $28 | $67 | $42 | $-13 | $8 |
| Operating Income ($M) | $25 | $64 | $38 | $-19 | $2 |
| Net Income ($M) | $20 | $49 | $33 | $-12 | $-8 |
| EPS (diluted) | $1.47 | $3.55 | $2.17 | $-0.85 | $-0.58 |
| Free Cash Flow ($M) | $9 | $-7 | $11 | $14 | $25 |
| Annual DPS | $0.000 | $0.000 | $0.000 | $0.000 | $0.000 |
| Total Debt ($M) | $3 | $37 | $23 | $11 | $9 |
| Rev YoY Growth | — | +92.2% | -16.6% | -44.2% | +19.0% |
⚙️ WACC Build (DCF)
| Input | Value | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Risk-Free Rate (Rf) | 4.30% | 10-yr US Treasury yield |
| Beta (β) | 1.800 | Market beta (Finnhub) |
| Equity Risk Premium (ERP) | 5.5% | Damodaran US ERP |
| Cost of Equity (Ke) | 14.20% | Ke = Rf + β × ERP |
| Pre-Tax Cost of Debt | 0.00% | Interest exp / gross debt |
| After-Tax Cost of Debt (Kd) | 0.00% | × (1 − 27%) |
| Weight Equity (We) | 100.0% | Mkt cap $0.0B |
| Weight Debt (Wd) | 0.0% | Gross debt $0.0B |
| WACC | 11.50% | DCF discount rate |
📈 DCF Scenarios
$27
🔴 Bear
$44
📊 Base
$94
🚀 Bull
$29.41
Current Price
$44
Analyst Avg PT
| Scenario | Stage 1 (Yrs 1–5) | Stage 2 (Yrs 6–10) | Terminal g | WACC | Intrinsic Value | vs Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🔴 Bear | 5.0% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 11.50% | $27 | ▼9.8% |
| 📊 Base | 15.0% | 10.0% | 2.5% | 11.50% | $44 | ▲49.2% |
| 🚀 Bull | 30.0% | 18.0% | 3.0% | 11.50% | $94 | ▲220.5% |
📋 Full 10-Year Projection Tables
Bear Scenario
Stage 1: 5.0% | Stage 2: 3.0% | Terminal: 2.0%
| Period | Stage | FCFF | PV of FCFF | Cumulative EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | Stage 1 | $0.02B | $0.02B | $0.02B |
| Year 2 | Stage 1 | $0.02B | $0.02B | $0.04B |
| Year 3 | Stage 1 | $0.03B | $0.02B | $0.06B |
| Year 4 | Stage 1 | $0.03B | $0.02B | $0.08B |
| Year 5 | Stage 1 | $0.03B | $0.02B | $0.09B |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $0.03B | $0.02B | $0.11B |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $0.03B | $0.01B | $0.12B |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $0.03B | $0.01B | $0.13B |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $0.03B | $0.01B | $0.15B |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $0.03B | $0.01B | $0.16B |
| Terminal | — | TV=$0.3B | PV(TV)=$0.1B (43% of EV) | EV=$0.3B |
Base Scenario
Stage 1: 15.0% | Stage 2: 10.0% | Terminal: 2.5%
| Period | Stage | FCFF | PV of FCFF | Cumulative EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | Stage 1 | $0.03B | $0.02B | $0.02B |
| Year 2 | Stage 1 | $0.03B | $0.02B | $0.05B |
| Year 3 | Stage 1 | $0.03B | $0.02B | $0.07B |
| Year 4 | Stage 1 | $0.04B | $0.02B | $0.10B |
| Year 5 | Stage 1 | $0.04B | $0.03B | $0.12B |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $0.05B | $0.03B | $0.15B |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $0.05B | $0.02B | $0.17B |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $0.06B | $0.02B | $0.20B |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $0.06B | $0.02B | $0.22B |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $0.07B | $0.02B | $0.24B |
| Terminal | — | TV=$0.8B | PV(TV)=$0.3B (53% of EV) | EV=$0.5B |
Bull Scenario
Stage 1: 30.0% | Stage 2: 18.0% | Terminal: 3.0%
| Period | Stage | FCFF | PV of FCFF | Cumulative EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | Stage 1 | $0.03B | $0.03B | $0.03B |
| Year 2 | Stage 1 | $0.04B | $0.03B | $0.06B |
| Year 3 | Stage 1 | $0.05B | $0.03B | $0.09B |
| Year 4 | Stage 1 | $0.06B | $0.04B | $0.13B |
| Year 5 | Stage 1 | $0.08B | $0.05B | $0.18B |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $0.10B | $0.05B | $0.23B |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $0.11B | $0.05B | $0.28B |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $0.13B | $0.06B | $0.34B |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $0.16B | $0.06B | $0.40B |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $0.19B | $0.06B | $0.46B |
| Terminal | — | TV=$2.3B | PV(TV)=$0.8B (62% of EV) | EV=$1.2B |
🔲 Sensitivity Table
| WACC \ gT | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | $52 | $54 | $56 | $59 | $62 |
| 10.0% | $49 | $51 | $53 | $55 | $57 |
| 10.5% | $46 | $48 | $49 | $51 | $53 |
| 11.0% | $44 | $45 | $46 | $48 | $50 |
| 11.5% | $42 | $43 | $44 | $45 | $47 |
| 12.0% | $40 | $41 | $42 | $43 | $44 |
| 12.5% | $38 | $39 | $40 | $41 | $42 |
| 13.0% | $36 | $37 | $38 | $39 | $39 |
| 13.5% | $35 | $35 | $36 | $37 | $38 |
Green = >10% above current price. Red = >10% below. Gold = within ±10%.
📉 Long-Term Price Trend Channel
Log-linear trend fitted to full price history. ±1.5σ bands. Green shaded zone = bottom 25% of historical range — historically attractive entry.
🏦 Comparable Valuation
| Company | Price | Fwd P/E | EV/Sales | P/FCF | Yield | Consensus |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clearfield (CLFD) | $29 | 53.4× | 5.1× | 16× | 0.0% | Strong Buy |
| Silicom Ltd (SILC) | $37 | 16.8× | 4.2× | 12× | 0.0% | Hold |
| Calix Networks (CALX) | $26 | 38.5× | 6.9× | 22× | 0.0% | Buy |
| ADTRAN Holdings (ADTN) | $7 | — | 4.5× | 9× | 0.0% | Buy |
| Dasan Zhone Solutions | $4 | — | 3.1× | 8× | 0.0% | Buy |
🔮 Analyst Forecast Section
(a) EPS Consensus
| Year | Low / Actual | Avg | High | # Analysts | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $1.47 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2022 | $3.55 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2023 | $2.17 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2024 | $-0.85 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2025 | $-0.58 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2026 | $0.48 | $0.55 | $0.60 | 6 | Estimate |
| 2027 | $1.12 | $1.27 | $1.46 | 5 | Estimate |
(b) Revenue Consensus
| Year | Low / Actual | Avg | High | # Analysts | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $0.1B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2022 | $0.3B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2023 | $0.2B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2024 | $0.1B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2025 | $0.1B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2026 | $0.2B | $0.2B | $0.2B | 6 | Estimate |
| 2027 | $0.2B | $0.2B | $0.2B | 5 | Estimate |
(c) Individual Analyst Price Targets
Consensus: Avg $43.50 | Range $41–$45
| Analyst | Firm | Rating | PT | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Savageaux | Northland Capital | Buy | $45 | +53.0% |
| Ryan Koontz | Needham | Strong Buy | $45 | +53.0% |
| Scott Searle | Roth Capital | Strong Buy | $43 | +46.2% |
| Jaeson Schmidt | Lake Street | Strong Buy | $41 | +39.4% |
(d) Earnings Surprise History
| Quarter | EPS Act vs Est | EPS Beat/Miss | Rev Act vs Est | Rev Beat/Miss | Guidance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 FY2025 | $0.00 vs $-0.10 | +$0.10 ✅ | $0.0B vs $0.0B | +$0.0B ✅ | Raised |
| Q4 FY2025 | $0.06 vs $0.00 | +$0.06 ✅ | $0.0B vs $0.0B | +$0.0B ✅ | Raised |
| Q1 FY2025 | $-0.25 vs $-0.30 | +$0.05 ✅ | $0.0B vs $0.0B | +$0.0B ✅ | Maintained |
| Q2 FY2025 | $-0.13 vs $-0.18 | +$0.05 ✅ | $0.0B vs $0.0B | +$0.0B ✅ | Raised |
(e) Confidence Band Commentary
Tight analyst PT cluster ($41–$45) reflects high conviction in recovery trajectory. Only 4 analysts cover CLFD, creating significant under-coverage for a company with meaningful BEAD program exposure. Recent PT cuts in November 2025 (from $50–$52 range) reflect cautious BEAD deployment timeline — actual program deployment may be faster. Sequential quarterly improvement in revenue and EPS beats suggest recovery on track.
💡 Investment Thesis
- BEAD program catalyst: The $42.5B federal BEAD broadband program is deploying to rural areas — exactly Clearfield's core market. Early BEAD construction contracts are being awarded in 2026, and Clearfield's FieldSmart product line is the dominant choice for community broadband operators. This is a multi-year demand driver that didn't exist in prior cycles.
- Fortress balance sheet: Zero debt, $97M cash (24% of market cap) — Clearfield has no financial risk and significant buyback/acquisition capacity. Net cash per share = ~$7, providing meaningful downside floor.
- Recovery in progress: Revenue already recovering: FY2024 $125.6M → FY2025 $150.1M (+20%). Gross margins recovering from 20.6% trough (FY2024) to 33.7% (FY2025) as utilization improves — still well below the 41-43% peak, indicating significant margin expansion runway.
- Strong Buy consensus: All 4 covering analysts rate Buy/Strong Buy. Tight PT range ($41–$45) with average $43.50 vs current $29.41 = 48% upside to consensus.
- Small-cap undervalued: At $412M market cap, CLFD trades at 2.7× FY2025 revenue — a significant discount to fiber/network infrastructure peers, providing re-rating potential as BEAD revenues materialize and margins recover.
⚖️ DCF Verdict: Accumulate — Clearfield (CLFD)
Current price: $29.41 | Analyst Avg PT: $43.50
$27
🔴 Bear
$44
📊 Base
$94
🚀 Bull
| Tier | Price | Action |
|---|---|---|
| Tier 1 — Starter | ≤$30 | Begin position |
| Tier 2 — Add | ≤$25 | Add on weakness |
| Tier 3 — Full | ≤$20 | Full allocation |
| Sell Alert | ≥$55 | Above fair value — consider trimming |
Clearfield is a high-conviction recovery play with a specific catalyst (BEAD program deployment) that should drive revenue and margin expansion for 3–4 years. At $29.41 — 48% below the analyst consensus PT of $43.50 and 33% below Base IV of $43.90 — the risk/reward is compelling. Accumulate. Build to full position at current levels ($29) and below. First target $43 (analyst consensus); second target $55+ if BEAD deployment accelerates as expected. Becomes cautious only if BEAD deployments face multi-year legislative delays.
📂 Current Position Summary
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Shares Held | 208.0 |
| Average Cost Basis | $94.87 |
| Current Market Value | $6,117 |
| Unrealized P&L | $-13,616 (-69.0%) |
| Annual DPS | — (not provided) |
| Annual Dividend Income | — (DPS missing) |
| Current Yield (at price) | — |
| Yield on Cost | — |
| vs Target (~$200K) | $6,117 / $200,000 (3%) |
Bore Family Office • Analysis generated by Lurch • Not investment advice.