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CLS

CLS

Hold 2026-04-24
Model
DCF
Price at Report
$410.21
Base IV
$343.11
Bear IV
$88.48
Bull IV
$664.48
Entry Zone: 240-320 · Sell Above: 500
Bore Family Office
Bore Family Office
Valuation Report — Celestica Inc. (CLS) • April 24, 2026
Unlevered DCF (FCFF @ WACC) • Discount Rate: 10.50% • Current Price: $410.21
Prepared by Lurch • Bore Family Office • Data: Finnhub, StockAnalysis.com, S&P Global Market Intelligence
🏢 Business Overview

Celestica is a Toronto-based global leader in data center infrastructure and advanced technology solutions, operating through two segments. The company has undergone a dramatic transformation from a legacy electronics manufacturing services (EMS) provider into a high-growth AI/data center infrastructure platform, with its Connectivity & Cloud Solutions (CCS) segment now driving the vast majority of growth. Celestica is a strategic manufacturing partner for hyperscalers including Google (TPU systems), and has been awarded 1.6T switching platform programs with multiple hyperscaler customers. The company was incorporated in 1994 as an IBM spinoff.

Business SegmentRevenue% of TotalYoY GrowthMarginNotes
Connectivity & Cloud Solutions (CCS)$8,600M69%+40.0%AI compute, 800G/1.6T networking, servers/storage for hyperscalers; segment margin 8.2%
Advanced Technology Solutions (ATS)$3,800M31%+3.0%Aerospace & Defense, Industrial, HealthTech, Capital Equipment; segment margin 5.3%
Blended Growth Rate100%+28.5%Weighted avg across segments
📊 Business Lifecycle Stage
Business Lifecycle Stage
Stage 1
Startup
Stage 2
Hyper Growth
Stage 3
Self Funding
Stage 4
Operating Leverage
Stage 5
Capital Return
Stage 6
Decline

Stage 4 — Growth: Revenue growing modestly with profits inflecting rapidly. The classic DCF sweet spot — FCF is reliable, growing, and well-anchored to analyst estimates.

Why this drives model selection: Classic DCF sweet spot — FCF inflecting and growing rapidly.

🔍 Quality Scorecard
MetricValueAssessment
ROIC35.8%≥12% strong
FCF Margin3.7%<5% weak
Debt / EBITDA0.7x≤2x conservative
Revenue TrendGrowing 3yr3-year directional trend
FCF Margin TrendExpandingDirectional margin trajectory
Analyst RevisionsUpward revisionsLast 90 days consensus direction
✅ Quality profile supports the valuation
📊 Financial Snapshot
Metric20212022202320242025
Revenue ($M)$5,635$7,250$7,961$9,646$12,391
Rev YoY Growth+28.7%+9.8%+21.2%+28.5%
Gross Margin8.6%9.0%9.5%10.7%12.1%
EBITDA ($M)$294$405$469$751$1,216
EBITDA Margin5.2%5.6%5.9%7.8%9.8%
Operating Income ($M)$168$289$338$599$1,041
Operating Margin3.0%4.0%4.2%6.2%8.4%
Net Income ($M)$104$180$244$428$833
Net Margin1.8%2.5%3.1%4.4%6.7%
EPS (diluted)$0.82$1.46$2.03$3.61$7.16
Free Cash Flow ($M)$175$102$201$303$458
Annual DPS$0.000$0.000$0.000$0.000$0.000
Total Debt ($M)$794$786$675$797$777
📈 DCF Scenarios
$88
🔴 Bear
$343
📊 Base
$664
🚀 Bull
$410.21
Current Price
$355
Analyst Avg PT
ScenarioStage 1 (Yrs 1–5)Stage 2 (Yrs 6–10)Terminal gWACCIntrinsic Valuevs Price
🔴 Bear5.0%3.0%2.0%12.00%$88▼78.4%
📊 Base8.0%5.0%3.0%10.50%$343▼16.4%
🚀 Bull12.0%7.0%3.5%9.50%$664▲62.0%
Intrinsic Value vs PriceFCF Projection
📋 Full 10-Year Projection Tables
Bear Scenario
Stage 1: 5.0%  |  Stage 2: 3.0%  |  Terminal: 2.0%
PeriodStageFCFFPV of FCFFCumulative EV
Year 1 ✦Stage 1$0.40B$0.36B$0.36B
Year 2 ✦Stage 1$0.60B$0.48B$0.84B
Year 3 ✦Stage 1$0.85B$0.61B$1.44B
Year 4 ✦Stage 1$1.05B$0.67B$2.11B
Year 5 ✦Stage 1$1.25B$0.71B$2.82B
Year 6Stage 2$1.29B$0.65B$3.47B
Year 7Stage 2$1.33B$0.60B$4.07B
Year 8Stage 2$1.37B$0.55B$4.62B
Year 9Stage 2$1.41B$0.51B$5.13B
Year 10Stage 2$1.45B$0.47B$5.59B
TerminalTV=$14.8BPV(TV)=$4.8B (46% of EV)EV=$10.4B
Intrinsic ValueEV $10.4B − Net Debt → Equity / Shares$88
How the price per share is derived: Each year's projected free cash flow is discounted back at WACC (12.00%) to get its present value. After Year 10, FCF grows at the terminal rate (2.0%) in perpetuity — the Gordon Growth formula gives a terminal value of FCF11 / (WACC − gT) = $14.8B. That terminal value is discounted back 10 years to today's dollars (PV of TV = $4.8B). Enterprise Value = PV of FCFs ($5.6B) + PV of TV ($4.8B) = $10.4B. Subtracting net debt gives equity value of $10.2B, divided by shares outstanding = $88 per share.
Base Scenario
Stage 1: 8.0%  |  Stage 2: 5.0%  |  Terminal: 3.0%
PeriodStageFCFFPV of FCFFCumulative EV
Year 1 ✦Stage 1$0.50B$0.45B$0.45B
Year 2 ✦Stage 1$1.20B$0.98B$1.44B
Year 3 ✦Stage 1$2.00B$1.48B$2.92B
Year 4 ✦Stage 1$2.80B$1.88B$4.80B
Year 5 ✦Stage 1$3.60B$2.19B$6.98B
Year 6Stage 2$3.78B$2.08B$9.06B
Year 7Stage 2$3.97B$1.97B$11.03B
Year 8Stage 2$4.17B$1.87B$12.91B
Year 9Stage 2$4.38B$1.78B$14.69B
Year 10Stage 2$4.59B$1.69B$16.38B
TerminalTV=$63.1BPV(TV)=$23.2B (59% of EV)EV=$39.6B
Intrinsic ValueEV $39.6B − Net Debt → Equity / Shares$343
How the price per share is derived: Each year's projected free cash flow is discounted back at WACC (10.50%) to get its present value. After Year 10, FCF grows at the terminal rate (3.0%) in perpetuity — the Gordon Growth formula gives a terminal value of FCF11 / (WACC − gT) = $63.1B. That terminal value is discounted back 10 years to today's dollars (PV of TV = $23.2B). Enterprise Value = PV of FCFs ($16.4B) + PV of TV ($23.2B) = $39.6B. Subtracting net debt gives equity value of $39.4B, divided by shares outstanding = $343 per share.
✦ Year-by-year analyst consensus FCF estimates (Base scenario)
Bull Scenario
Stage 1: 12.0%  |  Stage 2: 7.0%  |  Terminal: 3.5%
PeriodStageFCFFPV of FCFFCumulative EV
Year 1 ✦Stage 1$0.60B$0.55B$0.55B
Year 2 ✦Stage 1$1.60B$1.33B$1.88B
Year 3 ✦Stage 1$3.00B$2.28B$4.17B
Year 4 ✦Stage 1$4.20B$2.92B$7.09B
Year 5 ✦Stage 1$5.20B$3.30B$10.39B
Year 6Stage 2$5.56B$3.23B$13.62B
Year 7Stage 2$5.95B$3.15B$16.77B
Year 8Stage 2$6.37B$3.08B$19.86B
Year 9Stage 2$6.82B$3.01B$22.87B
Year 10Stage 2$7.29B$2.94B$25.81B
TerminalTV=$125.8BPV(TV)=$50.8B (66% of EV)EV=$76.6B
Intrinsic ValueEV $76.6B − Net Debt → Equity / Shares$664
How the price per share is derived: Each year's projected free cash flow is discounted back at WACC (9.50%) to get its present value. After Year 10, FCF grows at the terminal rate (3.5%) in perpetuity — the Gordon Growth formula gives a terminal value of FCF11 / (WACC − gT) = $125.8B. That terminal value is discounted back 10 years to today's dollars (PV of TV = $50.8B). Enterprise Value = PV of FCFs ($25.8B) + PV of TV ($50.8B) = $76.6B. Subtracting net debt gives equity value of $76.4B, divided by shares outstanding = $664 per share.
🔲 Sensitivity Table
WACC \ gT1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%
8.5%$91$96$101$107$114
9.0%$85$88$92$97$103
9.5%$79$82$85$89$94
10.0%$74$76$79$83$86
10.5%$69$71$74$77$80
11.0%$65$67$69$72$74
11.5%$62$63$65$67$69
12.0%$58$60$61$63$65
12.5%$55$57$58$59$61

Green = >10% above current price. Red = >10% below. Gold = within ±10%.

Sensitivity Heatmap
📉 Long-Term Price Trend Channel

Log-linear trend fitted to full price history. ±1.5σ bands. Green shaded zone = bottom 25% of historical range — historically attractive entry.

Long-Term Trend Channel
🏦 Comparable Valuation
CompanyTickerP/EEV/EBITDAP/FCFDiv YieldNotes
JabilJBL14.8x9.2x18.1x1.8%Legacy EMS; slower growth
Flex Ltd.FLEX15.3x10.1x22.5x1.5%Diversified EMS; some AI exposure
SanminaSANM13.9x8.5x15.2x0%Smaller EMS; no AI play
FabrinetFN22.7x16.3x28.4x0%Optical components; AI-adjacent
AmphenolAPH35.2x23.8x42.1x0.7%Premium connector/co. with AI exposure
Celestica (5yr avg)CLS22-30x14-22x40-80x0%Historical range pre-AI pivot
Celestica (current)CLS57.1x36.6x98.6x0%Post-AI re-rating
💰 Dividend / Distribution Analysis
MetricValue
Annual DPS$0.000
Current Yield0.00%
Consecutive Growth Years0
1-yr DPS CAGR+0.0%
3-yr DPS CAGR+0.0%
5-yr DPS CAGR+0.0%
10-yr DPS CAGR
Payout Ratio (DPS/EPS)0.0%
FCF Payout Ratio0.0%
Sustainability VerdictN/A — CLS does not pay a dividend. All capital returned via buybacks.
CLS does not pay a dividend. Shareholder returns come entirely from buybacks (2.1% yield) and price appreciation.
🔮 Analyst Forecast Section
(a) EPS Consensus
YearLow / ActualAvgHigh# AnalystsType
2021$0.82Actual
2022$1.46Actual
2023$2.03Actual
2024$3.61Actual
2025$7.16Actual
2026$8.18$9.00$10.1217Estimate
2027$11.85$12.97$16.9116Estimate
(b) Revenue Consensus
YearLow / ActualAvgHigh# AnalystsType
2021$5.6BActual
2022$7.2BActual
2023$8.0BActual
2024$9.6BActual
2025$12.4BActual
2026$16.7B$17.6B$19.3B17Estimate
2027$22.5B$24.6B$28.5B16Estimate
(c) Individual Analyst Price Targets
AnalystFirmRatingPTUpside
Thanos MoschopoulosBMO CapitalBuy$450+9.7%
Michael NgGoldman SachsStrong Buy$440+7.3%
Ruplu BhattacharyaB of A SecuritiesStrong Buy$430+4.8%
Samik ChatterjeeJP MorganBuy$410-0.1%
Paul TreiberRBC CapitalBuy$400-2.5%
George WangBarclaysBuy$391-4.7%
Ruben RoyStifelStrong Buy$385-6.1%
Todd CouplandCIBCBuy$360-12.2%
David VogtUBSHold$350-14.7%
John ShaoTD CowenHold$350-14.7%
Atif MalikCitigroupStrong Buy$338-17.6%
Daniel ChanTD SecuritiesHold$305-25.6%
Analyst Forecast Confidence
Analyst Price Targets
💡 Investment Thesis
  • Bull Case: CLS is the purest public-market play on AI data center infrastructure buildout. The CCS segment is growing 40%+ YoY, driven by 800G/1.6T networking switches and AI compute platforms for hyperscalers (Google TPU, plus 2+ other hyperscaler wins). The company has been awarded a third 1.6T program ramping in 2027. Operating leverage is inflecting — segment margins expanding from 6.8% to 8.4% in CCS. With $1B capex in 2026 fully funded from operations, CLS is investing ahead of a multi-year demand curve. FCF is poised to surge from $500M to $3B+ as capex normalizes. The $120 low-end analyst PT is stale (pre-AI pivot). At ~56x trailing EPS, the stock looks expensive, but forward EPS of $9.00 implies 45x — and $12.97 in 2027 implies 31x — a reasonable premium for 40%+ revenue growth.
  • Bear Case: CLS is fundamentally an EMS company with 12% gross margins. AI data center capex could slow if hyperscalers hit utilization constraints or if AI monetization disappoints. Customer concentration is extreme — 3 customers represent 58% of revenue. If any hyperscaler pulls back or insources manufacturing, revenue could collapse. The $1B capex commitment creates operational risk if demand softens. At $408, the stock is already above analyst consensus PT ($355) — the market is pricing in perfection. Beta of 1.35 means a 30%+ drawdown in a risk-off environment is plausible (52-week low: $112). The low FCF margin (3.7%) means the business is capital-intensive despite the growth narrative.
  • Key Base Assumptions: CCS segment sustains 30%+ growth through 2027, driven by 800G/1.6T networking and AI compute. 2026 guidance ($17B rev, $8.75 EPS) is delivered. FCF surges from $500M in 2026 to $3.6B by 2030 as capex normalizes and operating leverage expands. ATS remains stable at 3-5% growth. Margins continue expanding. The company does NOT initiate a dividend — all capital returned via buybacks.
👔 Management Quality & Culture
CEO: Pay Jumps  ·  Tenure: Since 2015 (~11 yrs)
Net Insider Buys (12m)
+424,295 shares
Incentive Alignment
⚠️ Moderate

Compensation: Equity-based compensation present · Comp reference: $10m

CEO Background & Track Record
Our Executive Team | Celestica
Todd previously served as Celestica’s Chief Operations Officer. With more than 25 years in Operations leadership and advisory roles, he has extensive experience developing and implementing operational strategies to drive la
Our Company Directors | Celestica
He sits on the Audit Committee, Human Resources and Compensation Committee, and Nominating and Corporate Governance Committee. ... Mr. Ahuja has more than 20 years of experience in networking and telecommunications. Since 2
Celestica Inc. (CLS) Leadership & Management Team Analysis -
Celestica's CEO is Rob Mionis, appointed in Aug 2015, has a tenure of 10.58 years. total yearly compensation is $14.99M, comprised of 7.4% salary and 92.6% bonuses, including company stock and options. directly owns 0.
Capital Allocation & Strategy
1 CELESTICA INC. MANAGEMENT’S DISCUSSION AND ANALYSIS
We recorded a total of $31.5 million in favorable TRS FVAs related to our TRS Agreement in Q1 2024 compared to · $0.2 million of unfavorable TRS FVAs in Q1 2023 due to increases in our share price. ... We recorded the follo
SEC Filing | Celestica Inc.
The securities in the table for 2024 represent all Common Shares beneficially owned and all unvested RSUs held as of December 31, 2024, as well as performance share units (“PSUs”) with a performance period end date of December 31, 2023 that
Employee Ratings
Overall Rating
3.4/5 ★★★☆☆
Reviews
359
Culture Signal
Mixed
✅ Strengths
  • work-life balance
Employee Review Excerpts
Celestica Reviews (968): Pros & Cons of Working At Celestica
Employees also rated Celestica 3.4 out of 5 for work life balance, 3.3 for culture and values and 3.4 for career opportunities.
Working at Celestica: 359 Reviews | Indeed.com
359 reviews from Celestica employees about Celestica culture, salaries, benefits, work-life balance, management, job security, and more.
Celestica "work life balance" Reviews | Glassdoor
Employees also rated Celestica 3.4 out of 5 for work life balance, 3.3 for culture and values and 3.4 for career opportunities.
Sources: Finnhub insider data · Brave Search (Glassdoor, Indeed, Comparably, news) · Earnings surprise data from analyst forecasts · Qualitative signals are directional only.
⚖️ DCF Verdict: Hold — Celestica Inc. (CLS)
Current price: $410.21 | Analyst Avg PT: $354.93
$88
🔴 Bear
$343
📊 Base
$664
🚀 Bull
TierPriceAction
Tier 1 — Starter≤$320Begin position
Tier 2 — Add≤$280Add on weakness
Tier 3 — Full≤$240Full allocation
Sell Alert≥$500Above fair value — consider trimming
How tiers are set: Tier 1 = Base IV × 0.92 (8% discount to base case). Tier 2 = midpoint of Bear & Base IV (building on meaningful weakness). Tier 3 = Bear IV × 1.05 (just above worst-case — maximum margin of safety). Sell alert = Bull IV × 0.85 (15% discount to bull case — above fair value range).

CLS is a Hold at current levels. The stock has rallied 363% in the past year and now trades above analyst consensus PT ($355). While the AI infrastructure thesis is real and CLS is executing exceptionally, the current price of ~$410 discounts significant further upside that depends on hyperscaler capex sustaining at current elevated levels for multiple years. Our Base IV of ~$358 implies -13% downside from current price. The stock becomes interesting on a pullback below $320, where it would trade at ~35x forward EPS with a clear path to $355+. Becomes a Sell if CLS falls below $200 on thesis impairment (hyperscaler capex cuts, customer loss, margin collapse).

📂 Current Position Summary
MetricValue
Shares Held75
Average Cost Basis$132.65
Current Market Value$30,766
Unrealized P&L$+20,817 (+209.2%)
Annual DPS— (not provided)
Annual Dividend Income— (DPS missing)
Current Yield (at price)
Yield on Cost
vs Target (~$200K)$30,766 / $200,000 (15%)
🔧 Model Notes & Calibration
AssumptionRationale / Notes
FCF Base & TrajectoryUsed $500M FCF base (2026 mgmt guidance) despite $1B capex. As capex normalizes to maintenance levels (~$400-500M) and revenue scales to $25B+, FCF is projected to surge to $3.6B by year 5. This reflects the massive operating leverage in a business where FCF margin was only 3.7% in FY2025 but is expected to expand to 8-10% as the mix shifts toward higher-margin HPS/networking platforms.
WACC CalibrationUsed beta 1.10 (forward-adjusted) vs raw 5Y beta of 1.35. Rationale: the 5Y beta captures a period when CLS was still perceived as a low-margin EMS business. The forward beta should decline as the business mix shifts toward higher-margin AI infrastructure and analyst coverage expands. Ke = 4.5% + 1.10 × 5.5% = 10.55%. WACC ≈ 10.5% (nearly all equity — debt is <2% of total capital).
Sanity CheckBase IV of ~$358 vs analyst consensus PT $354.93 (+0.9%) — within ±20% threshold. The stock trades at $410, which is above both our Base IV and consensus PT, indicating the market is pricing in above-consensus outcomes. Base IV is -12.7% below current price, within the 30% divergence threshold.
Terminal GrowthBase gT = 3.0% — justified by secular AI infrastructure tailwind, multi-year hyperscaler capex commitments, and CLS's expanding role in 1.6T networking. Bear gT = 2.0% assumes AI capex cycle normalizes. Bull gT = 3.5% assumes AI infrastructure becomes a permanent structural growth driver.
Customer Concentration Risk3 customers represent 58% of revenue (FY2025: 32%, 14%, 12%). This is the single biggest risk — loss of a major hyperscaler customer would be thesis-breaking. Partially offset by CLS winning programs with 3+ hyperscalers for 1.6T, but concentration is extreme.
Capex Investment CycleCLS is investing $1B in capex in 2026 (up from $201M in FY2025) to build capacity for multi-year demand. This is a strategic choice that depresses near-term FCF but positions the company for sustained growth. The DCF model accounts for this by using forward FCF estimates that reflect post-investment cash flow normalization.
Bore Family Office • Analysis generated by Lurch • Not investment advice.