ITRN
ITRN
Hold 2026-04-27
Model
DDM
Price at Report
$57.68
Base IV
$52.98
Bear IV
$35.34
Bull IV
$71.12
Entry Zone: 34-49 · Sell Above: 61
Bore Family Office
Valuation Report — Ituran Location and Control Ltd. (ITRN) • April 27, 2026
3-Stage DDM (Ke) • Discount Rate: 8.50% • Current Price: $57.68
Prepared by Lurch • Bore Family Office • Data: Finnhub, StockAnalysis.com, S&P Global Market Intelligence
🏢 Business Overview
Ituran Location and Control is an Israeli company providing location-based services (telematics) and stolen vehicle recovery (SVR) primarily in Israel, Brazil, and other Latin American markets. Founded in 1994, Ituran pioneered SVR technology and has expanded into broader telematics, connected car, and fleet management services.
The company operates a recurring-revenue model with ~2.1M subscribers. Brazil is the growth engine (~50% of revenue), where insurance-incentivized SVR drives adoption. ITRN also has a minority stake in roadside assistance platform Mesa (Israel). The competitive threat from OEM-embedded telematics (OnStar, etc.) is real but mitigated by insurance mandates in Brazil.
| Business Segment | Revenue | % of Total | YoY Growth | Margin | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Telematics Services (Recurring) | $280M | 78% | +8.0% | — | SVR + fleet + connected car subscriptions |
| Telematics Products (Hardware) | $79M | 22% | +4.0% | — | One-time device sales, lower margin |
| Blended Growth Rate | — | 100% | +7.1% | — | Weighted avg across segments |
📊 Business Lifecycle Stage
Stage 1
Startup
Startup
Stage 2
Hyper Growth
Hyper Growth
Stage 3
Self Funding
Self Funding
Stage 4
Operating Leverage
Operating Leverage
Stage 5
Capital Return
Capital Return
Stage 6
Decline
Decline
Stage 3 — Growth: Revenue growing rapidly, approaching breakeven. FCF turning positive — DCF is appropriate with normalized near-breakeven years.
Why this drives model selection: FCF turning positive — DCF appropriate with normalized near-breakeven years.
🔍 Quality Scorecard
| Metric | Value | Assessment |
|---|---|---|
| ROIC | 22.0% | ≥12% strong |
| FCF Margin | 18.6% | ≥10% strong |
| Debt / EBITDA | 0.0x | ≤2x conservative |
| Revenue Trend | Growing 3yr | 3-year directional trend |
| FCF Margin Trend | Stable (±1pp) | Directional margin trajectory |
| Analyst Revisions | Upward revisions | Last 90 days consensus direction |
✅ Quality profile supports the valuation
📊 Financial Snapshot
| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | $271 | $293 | $320 | $336 | $359 |
| Rev YoY Growth | — | +8.1% | +9.2% | +5.0% | +6.8% |
| Gross Margin | 47.2% | 47.1% | 47.8% | 47.9% | 49.9% |
| EBITDA ($M) | $73 | $79 | $87 | $91 | $96 |
| EBITDA Margin | 26.9% | 27.0% | 27.2% | 27.1% | 26.7% |
| Operating Income ($M) | $55 | $59 | $66 | $71 | $77 |
| Operating Margin | 20.3% | 20.1% | 20.6% | 21.1% | 21.4% |
| Net Income ($M) | $34 | $37 | $48 | $54 | $58 |
| Net Margin | 12.5% | 12.6% | 15.0% | 16.1% | 16.2% |
| EPS (diluted) | $1.65 | $1.82 | $2.41 | $2.70 | $2.92 |
| Free Cash Flow ($M) | $39 | $19 | $63 | $61 | $67 |
| Annual DPS | $0.560 | $0.560 | $0.930 | $0.560 | $1.670 |
| Total Debt ($M) | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
💹 Capital Return & Share Count Analysis
Net Share Change
-3.5% (2021→2025)
📉 Net reduction — buybacks exceed issuances
EPS Amplification
EPS grew +77.0% vs net income +70.6% over the period — +6.4pp of EPS growth amplified by share reduction.
| Year | Diluted Shares (M) | YoY Change | Buyback Spend ($M) | Buyback Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 20.5M | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20.2M | -1.7% | — | — |
| 2023 | 19.9M | -1.4% | — | — |
| 2024 | 19.9M | +0.0% | — | — |
| 2025 | 19.8M | -0.4% | — | — |
ITRN has modestly reduced share count (~3.5% over 5 years). Buybacks are minimal. Company prioritizes special dividends over buybacks for capital return.
📈 DDM Scenarios
$35
🔴 Bear
$53
📊 Base
$71
🚀 Bull
$57.68
Current Price
$61
Analyst Avg PT
| Scenario | Stage 1 (Yrs 1–5) | Stage 2 (Yrs 6–10) | Terminal g | Ke | Intrinsic Value | vs Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🔴 Bear | 4.0% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 8.50% | $35 | ▼38.7% |
| 📊 Base | 10.0% | 6.0% | 2.5% | 8.50% | $53 | ▼8.1% |
| 🚀 Bull | 14.0% | 8.0% | 3.0% | 8.50% | $71 | ▲23.3% |
📋 Full 10-Year Projection Tables
Bear Scenario
Stage 1: 4.0% | Stage 2: 3.0% | Terminal: 2.0%
| Period | Stage | DPS / Dist. | PV of DPS | Cumulative IV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | Stage 1 | $2.080 | $1.917 | $1.92 |
| Year 2 | Stage 1 | $2.163 | $1.838 | $3.75 |
| Year 3 | Stage 1 | $2.250 | $1.761 | $5.52 |
| Year 4 | Stage 1 | $2.340 | $1.688 | $7.20 |
| Year 5 | Stage 1 | $2.433 | $1.618 | $8.82 |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $2.506 | $1.536 | $10.36 |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $2.581 | $1.458 | $11.82 |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $2.659 | $1.384 | $13.20 |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $2.739 | $1.314 | $14.52 |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $2.821 | $1.248 | $15.76 |
| Terminal | — | TV=$44.27 | PV(TV)=$19.58 (55% of IV) | $35.34 |
| Intrinsic Value | — | — | PV(Divs) $15.76 + PV(TV) $19.58 | $35.34 |
How the price per share is derived: Each year's projected dividend is discounted back at Ke (8.50%) to get its present value. After Year 10, dividends are assumed to grow at the terminal rate (2.0%) in perpetuity — the Gordon Growth formula gives a terminal value of DPS11 / (Ke − gT) = $44.27. That terminal value is then discounted back 10 years to today's dollars (PV of TV = $19.58). Intrinsic value = PV of all dividends ($15.76) + PV of terminal value ($19.58) = $35.34 per share.
Base Scenario
Stage 1: 10.0% | Stage 2: 6.0% | Terminal: 2.5%
| Period | Stage | DPS / Dist. | PV of DPS | Cumulative IV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | Stage 1 | $2.200 | $2.028 | $2.03 |
| Year 2 | Stage 1 | $2.420 | $2.056 | $4.08 |
| Year 3 | Stage 1 | $2.662 | $2.084 | $6.17 |
| Year 4 | Stage 1 | $2.928 | $2.113 | $8.28 |
| Year 5 | Stage 1 | $3.221 | $2.142 | $10.42 |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $3.414 | $2.093 | $12.52 |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $3.619 | $2.045 | $14.56 |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $3.836 | $1.997 | $16.56 |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $4.066 | $1.951 | $18.51 |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $4.310 | $1.906 | $20.42 |
| Terminal | — | TV=$73.64 | PV(TV)=$32.57 (61% of IV) | $52.98 |
| Intrinsic Value | — | — | PV(Divs) $20.42 + PV(TV) $32.57 | $52.98 |
How the price per share is derived: Each year's projected dividend is discounted back at Ke (8.50%) to get its present value. After Year 10, dividends are assumed to grow at the terminal rate (2.5%) in perpetuity — the Gordon Growth formula gives a terminal value of DPS11 / (Ke − gT) = $73.64. That terminal value is then discounted back 10 years to today's dollars (PV of TV = $32.57). Intrinsic value = PV of all dividends ($20.42) + PV of terminal value ($32.57) = $52.98 per share.
Bull Scenario
Stage 1: 14.0% | Stage 2: 8.0% | Terminal: 3.0%
| Period | Stage | DPS / Dist. | PV of DPS | Cumulative IV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | Stage 1 | $2.280 | $2.101 | $2.10 |
| Year 2 | Stage 1 | $2.599 | $2.208 | $4.31 |
| Year 3 | Stage 1 | $2.963 | $2.320 | $6.63 |
| Year 4 | Stage 1 | $3.378 | $2.437 | $9.07 |
| Year 5 | Stage 1 | $3.851 | $2.561 | $11.63 |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $4.159 | $2.549 | $14.18 |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $4.492 | $2.537 | $16.71 |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $4.851 | $2.526 | $19.24 |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $5.239 | $2.514 | $21.75 |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $5.658 | $2.503 | $24.26 |
| Terminal | — | TV=$105.96 | PV(TV)=$46.87 (66% of IV) | $71.12 |
| Intrinsic Value | — | — | PV(Divs) $24.26 + PV(TV) $46.87 | $71.12 |
How the price per share is derived: Each year's projected dividend is discounted back at Ke (8.50%) to get its present value. After Year 10, dividends are assumed to grow at the terminal rate (3.0%) in perpetuity — the Gordon Growth formula gives a terminal value of DPS11 / (Ke − gT) = $105.96. That terminal value is then discounted back 10 years to today's dollars (PV of TV = $46.87). Intrinsic value = PV of all dividends ($24.26) + PV of terminal value ($46.87) = $71.12 per share.
🔲 Sensitivity Table
| Ke \ gT | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.5% | $69 | $75 | $81 | $90 | $102 |
| 7.0% | $62 | $67 | $72 | $78 | $87 |
| 7.5% | $57 | $60 | $64 | $69 | $76 |
| 8.0% | $52 | $55 | $58 | $62 | $67 |
| 8.5% | $48 | $50 | $53 | $56 | $60 |
| 9.0% | $45 | $46 | $49 | $51 | $54 |
| 9.5% | $41 | $43 | $45 | $47 | $49 |
| 10.0% | $39 | $40 | $42 | $43 | $45 |
| 10.5% | $36 | $38 | $39 | $40 | $42 |
Green = >10% above current price. Red = >10% below. Gold = within ±10%.
📉 Long-Term Price Trend Channel
Log-linear trend fitted to full price history. ±1.5σ bands. Green shaded zone = bottom 25% of historical range — historically attractive entry.
🏦 Comparable Valuation
| Company | Ticker | P/E | EV/EBITDA | P/FCF | Div Yield | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CalAmp | CAMP | NM | NM | NM | 0% | Distressed telematics peer |
| Otonomo | OTMO | NM | NM | NM | 0% | Connected car data — early stage |
| ITRN (own history 5-yr) | ITRN | 16.0x | 10.5x | 14.0x | 2.5% | 5-yr average |
🔮 Analyst Forecast Section
(a) EPS Consensus
| Year | Low / Actual | Avg | High | # Analysts | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | $1.82 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2023 | $2.41 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2024 | $2.70 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2025 | $2.92 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2026 | $3.16 | $3.34 | $3.56 | 5 | Estimate |
| 2027 | $3.47 | $3.74 | $4.06 | 5 | Estimate |
(b) Revenue Consensus
| Year | Low / Actual | Avg | High | # Analysts | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | $0.3B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2023 | $0.3B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2024 | $0.3B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2025 | $0.4B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2026 | $0.4B | $0.4B | $0.4B | 5 | Estimate |
| 2027 | $0.4B | $0.4B | $0.5B | 5 | Estimate |
(c) Individual Analyst Price Targets
| Analyst | Firm | Rating | PT | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allen Klee | Maxim Group | Strong Buy | $70 | +21.4% |
| Sergey Glinyanov | Freedom Broker | Strong Buy | $57 | -1.2% |
| Tavy Rosner | Barclays | Buy | $55 | -4.6% |
💡 Investment Thesis
- Recurring revenue model: ~78% of revenue is subscription-based. High retention rates and insurance-incentivized adoption in Brazil create a sticky subscriber base.
- Brazil growth engine: Insurance-mandated SVR creates a structural tailwind. Brazil subscriber base growing 8-10%/yr with room for further penetration.
- OEM telematics threat: Embedded car systems (OnStar, Tesla connectivity) could displace aftermarket telematics over time. ITRN's insurance-driven model provides a partial moat.
- Israeli geo risk: ~40% of revenue from Israel. Geopolitical disruption is a real risk, though ITRN has operated through conflicts before.
- Payout ratio >100%: Includes special dividends. Core payout is more reasonable (~55% of recurring EPS). Special dividends may not be sustainable at this pace.
👔 Management Quality & Culture
CEO: Not identified
Incentive Alignment
⚠️ Moderate
Compensation: Equity-based compensation present
CEO Background & Track Record
Ituran Location and Control Ltd.: Shareholders Board Members
Ituran Location and Control Ltd.: Company profile, business summary, shareholders, managers, financial ratings, industry, sector and market information | Nasdaq: ITRN | Nasdaq
Ituran Location and Control Ltd.: Company profile, business summary, shareholders, managers, financial ratings, industry, sector and market information | Nasdaq: ITRN | Nasdaq
Ituran Location and Control Ltd. (ITRN) Leadership & Managem
Sheratzky has been a Co-Chief Executive ... ... Experienced Management: ITRN's management team is seasoned and experienced (22.3 years average tenure)....
Sheratzky has been a Co-Chief Executive ... ... Experienced Management: ITRN's management team is seasoned and experienced (22.3 years average tenure)....
Ituran - Wikipedia
In 1995, Tadiran decided to sell the Ituran concept to a group of investors headed by Izzy Sheratzky.
In 1995, Tadiran decided to sell the Ituran concept to a group of investors headed by Izzy Sheratzky.
Capital Allocation & Strategy
Ituran details 2025 operations and risks in 20-F | ITRN SEC
In the years 2018 and 2021, we ... region ("RTH Transaction"). ... We had capital expenditures of $21.8 million in 2025, $13.6 million in 2024 and of $14.2 million in 2023, primarily in Israel, Brazil and Mexico,
In the years 2018 and 2021, we ... region ("RTH Transaction"). ... We had capital expenditures of $21.8 million in 2025, $13.6 million in 2024 and of $14.2 million in 2023, primarily in Israel, Brazil and Mexico,
Ituran Location & Control Ltd. - 1337117 - 2025
In the years 2018 and 2021, we ... operating primarily in the Latin American region ("RTH Transaction"). ... We had capital expenditures of $ 13.6 million in 2024 of $14.2 million in 2023, and $26.5 million in 202
In the years 2018 and 2021, we ... operating primarily in the Latin American region ("RTH Transaction"). ... We had capital expenditures of $ 13.6 million in 2024 of $14.2 million in 2023, and $26.5 million in 202
Employee Ratings
Overall Rating
3.5/5 ★★★★☆
Reviews
94
Culture Signal
Positive
✅ Strengths
- recommend
- supportive
Employee Review Excerpts
Working at Ituran | Glassdoor
Ituran has an employee rating of 3.5 out of 5 stars, based on 44 company reviews on Glassdoor which indicates that most employees have a good working experience there.
Ituran has an employee rating of 3.5 out of 5 stars, based on 44 company reviews on Glassdoor which indicates that most employees have a good working experience there.
Ituran Reviews: Pros And Cons of Working At Ituran |
How satisfied are employees working at Ituran?63% of Ituran employees would recommend working there to a friend based on Glassdoor reviews. Employees also rated Ituran 3.3 out of 5 for work life balance, 3.5 for culture and values
How satisfied are employees working at Ituran?63% of Ituran employees would recommend working there to a friend based on Glassdoor reviews. Employees also rated Ituran 3.3 out of 5 for work life balance, 3.5 for culture and values
Ituran Location and Control Ltd. Stock (ITRN) - Quote Nasdaq
Ituran Location and Control Ltd. is a provider of location-based services, consisting of stolen vehicle recovery (SVR), fleet management services and other tracking services. The Company also provides wireless communication products used in
Ituran Location and Control Ltd. is a provider of location-based services, consisting of stolen vehicle recovery (SVR), fleet management services and other tracking services. The Company also provides wireless communication products used in
Sources: Finnhub insider data · Brave Search (Glassdoor, Indeed, Comparably, news) · Earnings surprise data from analyst forecasts · Qualitative signals are directional only.
⚖️ DDM Verdict: Hold — Ituran Location and Control Ltd. (ITRN)
Current price: $57.68 | Analyst Avg PT: $60.67
$35
🔴 Bear
$53
📊 Base
$71
🚀 Bull
| Tier | Price | Action |
|---|---|---|
| Tier 1 — Starter | ≤$49 | Begin position |
| Tier 2 — Add | ≤$44 | Add on weakness |
| Tier 3 — Full | ≤$34 | Full allocation |
| Sell Alert | ≥$61 | Above fair value — consider trimming |
How tiers are set: Tier 1 = Base IV × 0.92 (8% discount to base case). Tier 2 = midpoint of Bear & Base IV (building on meaningful weakness). Tier 3 = Bear IV × 1.05 (just above worst-case — maximum margin of safety). Sell alert = Bull IV × 0.85 (15% discount to bull case — above fair value range).
Verdict: Hold. At $57.68, the shares sit in a reasonable range relative to the base-case value of $53. Add only on weakness toward the entry tiers below.
🔧 Model Notes & Calibration
| Assumption | Rationale / Notes |
|---|---|
| Model Selection | 3-Stage DDM — ITRN pays a growing dividend with special distributions. DDM captures the total return to shareholders. Small-cap risk warrants a size premium on Ke. |
| Ke Build | β=0.77, Rf=4.25%, ERP=5.5% → Ke=8.5%. No size premium — ITRN is debt-free, profitable, growing. Analysts are all Strong Buy/Buy. |
| DPS Base | Using $2.00/yr DPS (current rate: $0.50/qtr + recent $1.50 special). Core recurring DPS is ~$2.00 after the quarterly raise to $0.50. The payout ratio appears >100% on TTM GAAP EPS, but AFFO supports the dividend comfortably. |
| Growth Calibration | EPS growing 8-14%/yr. Stage 1 Base at 8% reflects analyst consensus growth. Dividend growth may lag EPS growth if payout ratio normalizes. |
| Thin Coverage Warning | Only 3 analysts cover ITRN. The PT range ($55-$70) is wide. Model assumptions carry more weight than typical. Cross-check against P/E and EV/EBITDA multiples. |
| Geo Risk | 40% of revenue from Israel. Conflict risk is idiosyncratic and hard to model. This justifies the size premium and bear case scenario. |
Bore Family Office • Analysis generated by Lurch • Not investment advice.