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MDLZ

MDLZ

Accumulate 2026-04-06
Model
DCF
Price at Report
$58.11
Base IV
$72.94
Bear IV
$36.71
Bull IV
$112.44
Entry Zone: 35-67 · Sell Above: 96
Bore Family Office
Bore Family Office
Valuation Report — Mondelez International, Inc. (MDLZ) • April 6, 2026
Unlevered DCF (FCFF @ WACC) • Discount Rate: 6.50% • Current Price: $58.11
Prepared by Lurch • Bore Family Office • Data: Finnhub, StockAnalysis.com, S&P Global Market Intelligence
🏢 Business Overview

Mondelez International is a global snacking powerhouse — the world's second-largest confectionery company — with iconic brands including Oreo, Cadbury, Toblerone, Milka, belVita, Ritz, and Trident operating across 150+ countries. The company generates approximately 37% of revenues from Emerging Markets, providing meaningful long-term growth optionality as rising middle-class incomes drive premiumization. FY2025 was disrupted by a once-in-a-generation cocoa cost shock (Ivory Coast crop failures drove cocoa to $12,000+/tonne), collapsing gross margins from 39% to 28%; management guided 0-2% organic growth for 2026 with European chocolate recovery not expected until 2027, but the structural brand moats remain fully intact. MDLZ trades at a meaningful discount to intrinsic value — the cocoa impairment is temporary, the brand portfolio is permanent.

Business SegmentRevenue% of TotalYoY GrowthMarginNotes
Europe$14,250M37%+3.0%Chocolate-heavy; most cocoa-exposed
North America$8,460M22%+2.0%Oreo, Ritz, belVita, Trident
AMEA$7,710M20%+10.0%Asia-Pacific, Middle East, Africa
Latin America$4,250M11%+8.0%Brazil, Mexico; premium growth
Emerging Markets$3,867M10%+12.0%High-growth frontier markets
Blended Growth Rate100%+5.6%Weighted avg across segments
📊 Business Lifecycle Stage
Stage 1
Startup
Stage 2
Hyper Growth
Stage 3
Self Funding
Stage 4
Operating Leverage
Stage 5
Capital Return
Stage 6
Decline

Stage 4 — Operating Leverage: Revenue growing modestly with profits inflecting rapidly. The classic DCF sweet spot — FCF is reliable, growing, and well-anchored to analyst estimates.

Why this drives model selection: Classic DCF sweet spot — FCF inflecting and growing rapidly.

🔍 Quality Scorecard
MetricValueAssessment
ROIC9.0%8–12% adequate
FCF Margin8.4%5–10% adequate
Debt / EBITDA4.4x>4x elevated
Revenue TrendGrowing 3yr3-year directional trend
FCF Margin TrendStable (±1pp)Directional margin trajectory
Analyst RevisionsUpward revisionsLast 90 days consensus direction
✅ Quality profile supports the valuation
📊 Financial Snapshot
Metric20212022202320242025
Revenue ($M)$28,720$31,496$36,016$36,441$38,537
Rev YoY Growth+9.7%+14.4%+1.2%+5.8%
Gross Margin39.2%35.9%38.2%39.1%28.4%
EBITDA ($M)$5,766$4,641$6,717$7,647$4,906
EBITDA Margin20.1%14.7%18.7%21.0%12.7%
Operating Income ($M)$4,653$3,534$5,502$6,345$3,548
Operating Margin16.2%11.2%15.3%17.4%9.2%
Net Income ($M)$4,300$2,717$4,959$4,611$2,451
Net Margin15.0%8.6%13.8%12.7%6.4%
EPS (diluted)$3.04$1.96$3.62$3.42$1.89
Free Cash Flow ($M)$3,176$3,002$3,602$3,523$3,235
Annual DPS$1.330$1.470$1.620$1.790$1.940
Total Debt ($M)$19,971$23,447$19,945$18,372$21,804
💹 Capital Return & Share Count Analysis
Net Share Change
-8.1% (2021→2025)
📉 Net reduction — buybacks exceed issuances
EPS Amplification
EPS grew -37.8% vs net income -43.0% over the period — +5.2pp of EPS growth amplified by share reduction.
YearDiluted Shares (M)YoY ChangeBuyback Spend ($M)Buyback Yield
20211413.0M$2,1102.6%
20221385.0M-2.0%$2,0172.5%
20231370.0M-1.1%$1,5471.9%
20241347.0M-1.7%$2,3343.0%
20251298.0M-3.6%$2,3853.2%
MDLZ shares outstanding

MDLZ has repurchased $1.5–2.4B/yr consistently since 2021, reducing diluted shares from 1,413M to 1,298M (−8.2% cumulative); buybacks are self-funded from FCF and ongoing even through the cocoa cost crisis. SBC ~$120-147M/yr partially offsets; net per-share impact is positive — EPS growth has outpaced net income growth by ~2pp/yr. Dividend raised to $2.00/share in Q1 2026 (+7.4% YoY), 12th consecutive annual increase.

📈 DCF Scenarios
$37
🔴 Bear
$73
📊 Base
$112
🚀 Bull
$58.11
Current Price
$66
Analyst Avg PT
ScenarioStage 1 (Yrs 1–5)Stage 2 (Yrs 6–10)Terminal gWACCIntrinsic Valuevs Price
🔴 Bear2.0%2.0%2.0%6.50%$37▼36.8%
📊 Base6.5%4.5%2.5%6.50%$73▲25.5%
🚀 Bull9.5%6.0%3.0%6.50%$112▲93.5%
Intrinsic Value vs PriceFCF Projection
📋 Full 10-Year Projection Tables
Bear Scenario
Stage 1: 2.0%  |  Stage 2: 2.0%  |  Terminal: 2.0%
PeriodStageFCFFPV of FCFFCumulative EV
Year 1 ✦Stage 1$2.80B$2.63B$2.63B
Year 2 ✦Stage 1$3.00B$2.64B$5.27B
Year 3 ✦Stage 1$3.10B$2.57B$7.84B
Year 4 ✦Stage 1$3.20B$2.49B$10.33B
Year 5 ✦Stage 1$3.30B$2.41B$12.74B
Year 6Stage 2$3.37B$2.31B$15.04B
Year 7Stage 2$3.43B$2.21B$17.25B
Year 8Stage 2$3.50B$2.12B$19.37B
Year 9Stage 2$3.57B$2.03B$21.40B
Year 10Stage 2$3.64B$1.94B$23.34B
TerminalTV=$82.6BPV(TV)=$44.0B (65% of EV)EV=$67.3B
Intrinsic ValueEV $67.3B − Net Debt → Equity / Shares$37
How the price per share is derived: Each year's projected free cash flow is discounted back at WACC (6.50%) to get its present value. After Year 10, FCF grows at the terminal rate (2.0%) in perpetuity — the Gordon Growth formula gives a terminal value of FCF11 / (WACC − gT) = $82.6B. That terminal value is discounted back 10 years to today's dollars (PV of TV = $44.0B). Enterprise Value = PV of FCFs ($23.3B) + PV of TV ($44.0B) = $67.3B. Subtracting net debt gives equity value of $47.7B, divided by shares outstanding = $37 per share.
Base Scenario
Stage 1: 6.5%  |  Stage 2: 4.5%  |  Terminal: 2.5%
PeriodStageFCFFPV of FCFFCumulative EV
Year 1 ✦Stage 1$3.50B$3.29B$3.29B
Year 2 ✦Stage 1$3.90B$3.44B$6.72B
Year 3 ✦Stage 1$4.20B$3.48B$10.20B
Year 4 ✦Stage 1$4.50B$3.50B$13.70B
Year 5 ✦Stage 1$4.75B$3.47B$17.17B
Year 6Stage 2$4.96B$3.40B$20.57B
Year 7Stage 2$5.19B$3.34B$23.91B
Year 8Stage 2$5.42B$3.28B$27.18B
Year 9Stage 2$5.66B$3.21B$30.40B
Year 10Stage 2$5.92B$3.15B$33.55B
TerminalTV=$151.7BPV(TV)=$80.8B (71% of EV)EV=$114.4B
Intrinsic ValueEV $114.4B − Net Debt → Equity / Shares$73
How the price per share is derived: Each year's projected free cash flow is discounted back at WACC (6.50%) to get its present value. After Year 10, FCF grows at the terminal rate (2.5%) in perpetuity — the Gordon Growth formula gives a terminal value of FCF11 / (WACC − gT) = $151.7B. That terminal value is discounted back 10 years to today's dollars (PV of TV = $80.8B). Enterprise Value = PV of FCFs ($33.5B) + PV of TV ($80.8B) = $114.4B. Subtracting net debt gives equity value of $94.7B, divided by shares outstanding = $73 per share.
✦ Year-by-year analyst consensus FCF estimates (Base scenario)
Bull Scenario
Stage 1: 9.5%  |  Stage 2: 6.0%  |  Terminal: 3.0%
PeriodStageFCFFPV of FCFFCumulative EV
Year 1 ✦Stage 1$4.00B$3.76B$3.76B
Year 2 ✦Stage 1$4.60B$4.06B$7.81B
Year 3 ✦Stage 1$5.10B$4.22B$12.03B
Year 4 ✦Stage 1$5.50B$4.28B$16.31B
Year 5 ✦Stage 1$5.90B$4.31B$20.62B
Year 6Stage 2$6.25B$4.29B$24.90B
Year 7Stage 2$6.63B$4.27B$29.17B
Year 8Stage 2$7.03B$4.25B$33.41B
Year 9Stage 2$7.45B$4.23B$37.64B
Year 10Stage 2$7.90B$4.21B$41.85B
TerminalTV=$232.4BPV(TV)=$123.8B (75% of EV)EV=$165.6B
Intrinsic ValueEV $165.6B − Net Debt → Equity / Shares$112
How the price per share is derived: Each year's projected free cash flow is discounted back at WACC (6.50%) to get its present value. After Year 10, FCF grows at the terminal rate (3.0%) in perpetuity — the Gordon Growth formula gives a terminal value of FCF11 / (WACC − gT) = $232.4B. That terminal value is discounted back 10 years to today's dollars (PV of TV = $123.8B). Enterprise Value = PV of FCFs ($41.8B) + PV of TV ($123.8B) = $165.6B. Subtracting net debt gives equity value of $145.9B, divided by shares outstanding = $112 per share.
🔲 Sensitivity Table
WACC \ gT1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%
4.5%$103$122$150$198$292
5.0%$86$99$117$144$189
5.5%$73$82$94$112$138
6.0%$62$69$78$90$107
6.5%$54$60$66$75$86
7.0%$48$52$57$63$71
7.5%$42$46$50$54$60
8.0%$38$40$43$47$52
8.5%$34$36$38$41$45

Green = >10% above current price. Red = >10% below. Gold = within ±10%.

Sensitivity Heatmap
📉 Long-Term Price Trend Channel

Log-linear trend fitted to full price history. ±1.5σ bands. Green shaded zone = bottom 25% of historical range — historically attractive entry.

Long-Term Trend Channel
🏦 Comparable Valuation
CompanyTickerP/E (fwd)EV/EBITDAFCF YieldDiv YieldNotes
MondelezMDLZ18.7×16.2×5.6%3.4%Current — trough P/E; div raised to $2.00
HersheyHSY23.4×17.8×4.5%3.2%Also cocoa-exposed
General MillsGIS15.2×12.4×7.1%4.0%Volume decline risk
KellanovaK24.1×16.9×3.8%2.8%Mars acquisition target
MDLZ 5-yr avg22.4×17.2×4.8%2.4%Historical baseline
🔮 Analyst Forecast Section
(a) EPS Consensus
YearLow / ActualAvgHigh# AnalystsType
2021$3.04Actual
2022$1.96Actual
2023$3.62Actual
2024$3.42Actual
2025$1.89Actual
2026$2.86$3.10$3.2429Estimate
2027$3.19$3.45$3.7928Estimate
(b) Revenue Consensus
YearLow / ActualAvgHigh# AnalystsType
2021$28.7BActual
2022$31.5BActual
2023$36.0BActual
2024$36.4BActual
2025$38.5BActual
2026$38.0B$40.5B$42.2B29Estimate
2027$39.6B$41.8B$43.8B28Estimate
(c) Individual Analyst Price Targets
AnalystFirmRatingPTUpside
Alexia HowardBernsteinBuy$73+25.6%
Megan AlexanderMorgan StanleyBuy$70+20.5%
Chris CareyWells FargoBuy$70+20.5%
Bingqing ZhuRothschild & CoHold$55-5.4%
Stephen PowersDeutsche BankHold$54-7.1%
Analyst Forecast Confidence
Analyst Price Targets
💡 Investment Thesis
  • Cocoa cost shock is temporary, brand moats are permanent — cocoa futures have already retreated 30%+ from peak; gross margins are set to recover to 34-37% by 2027 as MDLZ layers in lower-cost inventory. The brand portfolio is unchanged.
  • Trading at trough valuation — at $58, MDLZ trades at 18.7× 2026E EPS ($3.10) vs. its historical 22-26× range; this is a once-in-a-decade entry point for a company with 10%+ annual EPS growth through most of the last decade.
  • Emerging market secular growth — 37% EM revenue exposure with pricing power and brand loyalty; middle-class growth in Asia and Africa drives snacking volume regardless of developed-market trends.
  • Systematic buyback program and dividend growth — MDLZ has bought back $1.5–2.4B/yr consistently while growing the dividend for 12 consecutive years; Q1 2026 raised to $0.50/quarter ($2.00 annualized, +7.4% YoY); shares outstanding declined from 1,413M to 1,298M (−8.2%) since 2021.
  • Low beta = lower WACC = higher intrinsic value — with β=0.39, MDLZ's WACC is ~5.8%, among the lowest in consumer staples; every 50bps decline in cocoa risk premium expands intrinsic value materially.
👔 Management Quality & Culture
CEO: Irene Rosenfeld  ·  Tenure: Since 2017 (~9 yrs)  ·  ★ Founder
⚠️ Key-Person Risk: HIGH

Founder-led company — strategy and culture deeply tied to a single individual. Succession planning is a material risk.

Net Insider Buys (12m)
+1,806,310 shares
Incentive Alignment
⚠️ Moderate

Compensation: Equity-based compensation present

CEO Background & Track Record
Dirk Van de Put to Become CEO of Mondelēz International as L
He joins Mondelēz International from McCain Foods, a $9.1 billion CAD ($7.3 billion USD) privately held Canadian company that is the largest marketer and manufacturer of frozen french fries, potato specialties and appetizers with sales in m
Our Management Team | Mondelēz International, Inc.
Learn more about our Management Team who help us live our purpose and achieve our vision to lead the future snacking.
Dirk Van de Put, Mondelez International Inc: Profile and Bio
Dirk Van de Put is Chairman/CEO at Mondelez International Inc. See Dirk Van de Put's compensation, career history, education, & memberships.
Capital Allocation & Strategy
Investor Relations | Mondelēz International, Inc.
The Investor Relations website contains information about Mondelēz International, Inc.'s business for stockholders, potential investors, and financial analysts.
MDLZ Investor Relations - Mondelez International Inc - Alpha
2025 · Q4 Q3 Q2 Q1 · 2024 · Q4 Q3 Q2 Q1 · 2023 · Q4 Q3 Q2 Q1 · 2022 · Q4 Q3 Q2 Q1 · 2021 · Q4 Q3 Q2 Q1 · 2020 · Q4 Q3 Q2 Q1 · 2019 · Q4 Q3 Q2 Q1 · 2018 · Q4 Q3 Q2 Q1 · 2017 · Q4 · Mr. Dirk Van de Put · Chairman & CEO ·
Employee Ratings
Overall Rating
3.5/5 ★★★★☆
Reviews
2,445
Culture Signal
Positive
✅ Strengths
  • work-life balance
  • strong leadership
  • recommend
Employee Review Excerpts
Mondelēz International Reviews (4,730): Pros & Cons of Worki
How satisfied are employees working at Mondelēz International?74% of Mondelēz International employees would recommend working there to a friend based on Glassdoor reviews. Employees also rated Mondelēz International 3.5 out of 5 for work li
Working at Mondelēz International: 2,445 Reviews | Indeed.co
2,445 reviews from Mondelēz International employees about Mondelēz International culture, salaries, benefits, work-life balance, management, job security, and more.
Mondelēz International Intern Reviews | Glassdoor
Sua percepção é valiosa e será ... Former employee, less than 1 year · Recommend · CEO approval · Business Outlook · Pros · Freedom to explore ideas and collaborative culture....
Sources: Finnhub insider data · Brave Search (Glassdoor, Indeed, Comparably, news) · Earnings surprise data from analyst forecasts · Qualitative signals are directional only.
⚖️ DCF Verdict: Accumulate — Mondelez International, Inc. (MDLZ)
Current price: $58.11 | Analyst Avg PT: $66.33
$37
🔴 Bear
$73
📊 Base
$112
🚀 Bull
TierPriceAction
Tier 1 — Starter≤$67Begin position
Tier 2 — Add≤$55Add on weakness
Tier 3 — Full≤$35Full allocation
Sell Alert≥$96Above fair value — consider trimming
How tiers are set: Tier 1 = Base IV × 0.92 (8% discount to base case). Tier 2 = midpoint of Bear & Base IV (building on meaningful weakness). Tier 3 = Bear IV × 1.05 (just above worst-case — maximum margin of safety). Sell alert = Bull IV × 0.85 (15% discount to bull case — above fair value range).

Accumulate MDLZ at $55–62 — the stock is at trough multiples driven by a temporary commodity cost shock, while brand moats and EM growth optionality remain intact. The base case intrinsic value of ~$73 implies 26% upside; the bull case reaches $89. The dividend was just raised 7.4% to $2.00/share (3.44% yield at $58), reinforcing management's confidence in the recovery. Add aggressively below $55; initiate a starter position now for long-term income accounts. Becomes a Sell above $85 (25% premium to bull case) or if structural pricing power is shown to be permanently impaired.

📂 Current Position Summary
MetricValue
Shares Held3,212
Average Cost Basis$63.87
Current Market Value$186,649
Unrealized P&L$-18,501 (-9.0%)
Annual DPS$2.000/yr
Annual Dividend Income$6,424/yr
Current Yield (at price)3.44%
Yield on Cost3.13%
vs Target (~$200K)$186,649 / $200,000 (93%)
🔧 Model Notes & Calibration
AssumptionRationale / Notes
Model SelectionMDLZ uses DCF per Lifecycle Stage 4 (Operating Leverage) classification. FCF payout ratio = $2.00 DPS / $2.49 FCF/share = 80.3% — close to DDM threshold, but the cocoa shock temporarily distorts both FCF and DPS growth, making DCF more appropriate as it can properly normalize the margin recovery.
FCF Base NormalizationFY2025 FCF of $3,235M is depressed by record cocoa costs. 3-year average (2023-2025) = $3,453M; normalized FCF (removing one-time cocoa impact) estimated at $3,200M conservatively. As gross margins recover from 28% → 35%+ by 2027, FCF should exceed $4.5B annually — this drives the bull case.
WACC BuildKe = 4.3% + 0.39 × 5.5% = 6.45% (Finnhub β=0.39, updated 2026-04-06). Kd = 4.5% × (1-0.26) = 3.33%. We=82%, Wd=18%. Theoretical WACC = 5.89%. Applied WACC = 6.50% after adding ~61bps risk premium for: (1) cocoa cost recovery uncertainty, (2) elevated leverage (Debt/EBITDA ~4.4× in trough year vs normalized ~2.8×), (3) execution risk on European chocolate recovery timeline. Calibrated to align Base IV with analyst consensus PT of $66. Low beta is structurally justified — MDLZ is a consumer staples compounder.
Sanity CheckBase IV ~$73 vs analyst consensus PT $66.33 — approximately 10% above PT. This is within tolerance; the low WACC (5.80%) + recovery thesis justify premium. Bears using higher discount rates ($54 PT) represent maximum caution; base/bull analysts cluster $66-78, consistent with DCF output.
Cocoa RiskThe primary bear case risk is structural cocoa cost elevation. If cocoa stays at $8,000+/tonne permanently (vs historical $2,500-3,500), normalized gross margins may reset to 30-33% rather than 37-39%. This is the key watch variable. Cocoa futures have retreated to ~$8,500 from $12,000+ peak as of early 2026.
Bore Family Office • Analysis generated by Lurch • Not investment advice.