POR
POR
Hold 2026-04-29
Model
DDM
Price at Report
$51.58
Base IV
$50.94
Bear IV
$42.26
Bull IV
$59.45
Entry Zone: 40-47 · Sell Above: 59
Bore Family Office
Valuation Report — Portland General Electric Company (POR) • April 29, 2026
3-Stage DDM (Ke) • Discount Rate: 7.39% • Current Price: $51.58
Prepared by Lurch • Bore Family Office • Data: Finnhub, StockAnalysis.com, S&P Global Market Intelligence
🏢 Business Overview
Portland General Electric (POR) is Oregon's largest electric utility, serving ~920,000 customers in the Portland-Salem metropolitan area. Founded in 1889, POR operates as a vertically integrated regulated utility with generation, transmission, and distribution assets.
The company is executing a significant clean energy transition, investing heavily in wind, solar, and battery storage while retiring coal generation. POR's regulated monopoly status provides predictable cash flows, but heavy capex (transmission upgrades, renewable builds) drives negative FCF — normal for a growing utility.
| Business Segment | Revenue | % of Total | YoY Growth | Margin | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regulated Electric Utility | $3,576M | 100% | +4.0% | — | Vertically integrated; rate base growing via renewables capex |
| Blended Growth Rate | — | 100% | +4.0% | — | Weighted avg across segments |
📊 Business Lifecycle Stage
Stage 1
Startup
Startup
Stage 2
Hyper Growth
Hyper Growth
Stage 3
Self Funding
Self Funding
Stage 4
Operating Leverage
Operating Leverage
Stage 5
Capital Return
Capital Return
Stage 6
Decline
Decline
Stage 4 — Maturity/Income: Revenue growing modestly with profits inflecting rapidly. The classic DCF sweet spot — FCF is reliable, growing, and well-anchored to analyst estimates.
Why this drives model selection: Classic DCF sweet spot — FCF inflecting and growing rapidly.
🔍 Quality Scorecard
| Metric | Value | Assessment |
|---|---|---|
| ROIC | 5.0% | <8% weak |
| FCF Margin | -2.0% | <5% weak |
| Debt / EBITDA | 4.9x | >4x elevated |
| Revenue Trend | Growing 3yr | 3-year directional trend |
| FCF Margin Trend | Stable (±1pp) | Directional margin trajectory |
| Analyst Revisions | Neutral | Last 90 days consensus direction |
⚠️ Elevated value trap risk — verify thesis before acting
📊 Financial Snapshot
| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | $2,396 | $2,647 | $2,923 | $3,440 | $3,576 |
| Rev YoY Growth | — | +10.5% | +10.4% | +17.7% | +4.0% |
| Gross Margin | 38.7% | 36.7% | 34.8% | 34.4% | 37.0% |
| EBITDA ($M) | $782 | $814 | $854 | $1,008 | $1,133 |
| EBITDA Margin | 32.6% | 30.8% | 29.2% | 29.3% | 31.7% |
| Operating Income ($M) | $378 | $397 | $396 | $512 | $555 |
| Operating Margin | 15.8% | 15.0% | 13.5% | 14.9% | 15.5% |
| Net Income ($M) | $244 | $233 | $228 | $313 | $306 |
| Net Margin | 10.2% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 9.1% | 8.6% |
| EPS (diluted) | $2.72 | $2.60 | $2.33 | $3.01 | $2.77 |
| Free Cash Flow ($M) | $-104 | $-92 | $-938 | $-490 | $-71 |
| Annual DPS | $1.698 | $1.788 | $1.877 | $1.975 | $2.075 |
| Total Debt ($M) | $3,800 | $4,200 | $4,600 | $5,200 | $5,600 |
💹 Capital Return & Share Count Analysis
Net Share Change
+29.2% (2021→2025)
📈 Net dilution — issuances exceed buybacks
EPS Amplification
EPS grew +1.8% vs net income +25.4% over the period — -23.6pp of EPS growth diluted by share issuance.
| Year | Diluted Shares (M) | YoY Change | Buyback Spend ($M) | Buyback Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 89.4M | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 89.3M | -0.1% | — | — |
| 2023 | 101.2M | +13.3% | — | — |
| 2024 | 109.3M | +8.1% | — | — |
| 2025 | 115.6M | +5.7% | — | — |
POR has been issuing shares to fund capex. Diluted shares grew 29% from 2021 to 2025 — significant dilution. No buyback program. Utility finances growth via debt and equity issuance.
📈 DDM Scenarios
$42
🔴 Bear
$51
📊 Base
$59
🚀 Bull
$51.58
Current Price
$50
Analyst Avg PT
| Scenario | Stage 1 (Yrs 1–5) | Stage 2 (Yrs 6–10) | Terminal g | Ke | Intrinsic Value | vs Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🔴 Bear | 3.0% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 7.39% | $42 | ▼18.1% |
| 📊 Base | 5.0% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 7.39% | $51 | ▼1.2% |
| 🚀 Bull | 6.0% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 7.39% | $59 | ▲15.3% |
📋 Full 10-Year Projection Tables
Bear Scenario
Stage 1: 3.0% | Stage 2: 2.5% | Terminal: 2.0%
| Period | Stage | DPS / Dist. | PV of DPS | Cumulative IV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | Stage 1 | $2.163 | $2.014 | $2.01 |
| Year 2 | Stage 1 | $2.228 | $1.932 | $3.95 |
| Year 3 | Stage 1 | $2.295 | $1.853 | $5.80 |
| Year 4 | Stage 1 | $2.364 | $1.777 | $7.58 |
| Year 5 | Stage 1 | $2.434 | $1.704 | $9.28 |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $2.495 | $1.627 | $10.91 |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $2.558 | $1.553 | $12.46 |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $2.622 | $1.482 | $13.94 |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $2.687 | $1.415 | $15.36 |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $2.754 | $1.350 | $16.71 |
| Terminal | — | TV=$52.12 | PV(TV)=$25.55 (60% of IV) | $42.26 |
| Intrinsic Value | — | — | PV(Divs) $16.71 + PV(TV) $25.55 | $42.26 |
How the price per share is derived: Each year's projected dividend is discounted back at Ke (7.39%) to get its present value. After Year 10, dividends are assumed to grow at the terminal rate (2.0%) in perpetuity — the Gordon Growth formula gives a terminal value of DPS11 / (Ke − gT) = $52.12. That terminal value is then discounted back 10 years to today's dollars (PV of TV = $25.55). Intrinsic value = PV of all dividends ($16.71) + PV of terminal value ($25.55) = $42.26 per share.
Base Scenario
Stage 1: 5.0% | Stage 2: 3.5% | Terminal: 2.5%
| Period | Stage | DPS / Dist. | PV of DPS | Cumulative IV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | Stage 1 | $2.205 | $2.053 | $2.05 |
| Year 2 | Stage 1 | $2.315 | $2.008 | $4.06 |
| Year 3 | Stage 1 | $2.431 | $1.963 | $6.02 |
| Year 4 | Stage 1 | $2.553 | $1.919 | $7.94 |
| Year 5 | Stage 1 | $2.680 | $1.876 | $9.82 |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $2.774 | $1.809 | $11.63 |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $2.871 | $1.743 | $13.37 |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $2.972 | $1.680 | $15.05 |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $3.076 | $1.619 | $16.67 |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $3.183 | $1.560 | $18.23 |
| Terminal | — | TV=$66.72 | PV(TV)=$32.71 (64% of IV) | $50.94 |
| Intrinsic Value | — | — | PV(Divs) $18.23 + PV(TV) $32.71 | $50.94 |
How the price per share is derived: Each year's projected dividend is discounted back at Ke (7.39%) to get its present value. After Year 10, dividends are assumed to grow at the terminal rate (2.5%) in perpetuity — the Gordon Growth formula gives a terminal value of DPS11 / (Ke − gT) = $66.72. That terminal value is then discounted back 10 years to today's dollars (PV of TV = $32.71). Intrinsic value = PV of all dividends ($18.23) + PV of terminal value ($32.71) = $50.94 per share.
Bull Scenario
Stage 1: 6.0% | Stage 2: 4.5% | Terminal: 3.0%
| Period | Stage | DPS / Dist. | PV of DPS | Cumulative IV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | Stage 1 | $2.226 | $2.073 | $2.07 |
| Year 2 | Stage 1 | $2.360 | $2.046 | $4.12 |
| Year 3 | Stage 1 | $2.501 | $2.020 | $6.14 |
| Year 4 | Stage 1 | $2.651 | $1.993 | $8.13 |
| Year 5 | Stage 1 | $2.810 | $1.968 | $10.10 |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $2.937 | $1.915 | $12.01 |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $3.069 | $1.863 | $13.88 |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $3.207 | $1.813 | $15.69 |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $3.351 | $1.764 | $17.45 |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $3.502 | $1.717 | $19.17 |
| Terminal | — | TV=$82.17 | PV(TV)=$40.28 (68% of IV) | $59.45 |
| Intrinsic Value | — | — | PV(Divs) $19.17 + PV(TV) $40.28 | $59.45 |
How the price per share is derived: Each year's projected dividend is discounted back at Ke (7.39%) to get its present value. After Year 10, dividends are assumed to grow at the terminal rate (3.0%) in perpetuity — the Gordon Growth formula gives a terminal value of DPS11 / (Ke − gT) = $82.17. That terminal value is then discounted back 10 years to today's dollars (PV of TV = $40.28). Intrinsic value = PV of all dividends ($19.17) + PV of terminal value ($40.28) = $59.45 per share.
🔲 Sensitivity Table
| Ke \ gT | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.4% | $69 | $77 | $87 | $101 | $123 |
| 5.9% | $61 | $67 | $74 | $83 | $97 |
| 6.4% | $55 | $59 | $64 | $71 | $80 |
| 6.9% | $49 | $53 | $57 | $62 | $68 |
| 7.4% | $45 | $48 | $51 | $55 | $60 |
| 7.9% | $41 | $44 | $46 | $49 | $53 |
| 8.4% | $38 | $40 | $42 | $44 | $47 |
| 8.9% | $36 | $37 | $39 | $41 | $43 |
| 9.4% | $33 | $34 | $36 | $37 | $39 |
Green = >10% above current price. Red = >10% below. Gold = within ±10%.
📉 Long-Term Price Trend Channel
Log-linear trend fitted to full price history. ±1.5σ bands. Green shaded zone = bottom 25% of historical range — historically attractive entry.
🏦 Comparable Valuation
| Company | Ticker | P/E | EV/EBITDA | P/FCF | Div Yield | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PGE Corp | PCG | 15.2x | 9.8x | NM | 4.1% | California utility — higher risk |
| Idacorp | IDA | 18.5x | 10.2x | 25.0x | 3.4% | Pacific NW peer, premium |
| Avista | AVA | 17.0x | 9.5x | 22.0x | 4.3% | Small NW utility |
| Portland Gen (own history 5-yr) | POR | 16.5x | 9.0x | NM | 3.9% | 5-yr average |
🔮 Analyst Forecast Section
(a) EPS Consensus
| Year | Low / Actual | Avg | High | # Analysts | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | $2.60 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2023 | $2.33 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2024 | $3.01 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2025 | $2.77 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2026 | $3.33 | $3.46 | $3.64 | 16 | Estimate |
| 2027 | $3.40 | $3.64 | $3.90 | 16 | Estimate |
(b) Revenue Consensus
| Year | Low / Actual | Avg | High | # Analysts | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | $2.6B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2023 | $2.9B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2024 | $3.4B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2025 | $3.6B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2026 | $3.6B | $3.8B | $4.1B | 16 | Estimate |
| 2027 | $3.7B | $4.0B | $4.5B | 16 | Estimate |
(c) Individual Analyst Price Targets
| Analyst | Firm | Rating | PT | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gregg Orrill | UBS | Hold | $55 | +6.6% |
| Aidan Kelly | JP Morgan | Hold | $54 | +4.7% |
| Nicholas Campanella | Barclays | Hold | $53 | +2.8% |
| Shahriar Pourreza | Wells Fargo | Hold | $49 | -5.0% |
💡 Investment Thesis
- Rate base growth engine: POR is investing $600M+/yr in renewable generation and grid modernization — rate base growth of 6-8% supports 5% annual dividend increases.
- 20-year dividend growth streak: 5% CAGR, 4.1% current yield — a textbook income utility.
- Oregon regulatory risk: OPUC has been tough on rate cases; 2023 general rate case resulted in lower-than-requested increase. Regulatory compact is the key variable.
- Capex overhang: Heavy capex (negative FCF) is normal for growth utilities, but debt is rising. Total debt ~$5.6B, Debt/EBITDA ~5x — elevated but manageable.
- Clean energy transition: Coal retirement by 2025, major wind/solar buildout. Execution risk is real, but successful buildout grows the rate base.
👔 Management Quality & Culture
CEO: Peggy Fowler · Tenure: Since 2017 (~9 yrs) · ★ Founder
⚠️ Key-Person Risk: HIGH
Founder-led company — strategy and culture deeply tied to a single individual. Succession planning is a material risk.
Net Insider Buys (12m)
+80,612 shares
Incentive Alignment
⚠️ Moderate
Compensation: Equity-based compensation present
CEO Background & Track Record
Maria Pope | Board of Directors | Portland General Electric
The Investor Relations website contains information about Portland General Electric Company's business for stockholders, potential investors, and financial analysts.
The Investor Relations website contains information about Portland General Electric Company's business for stockholders, potential investors, and financial analysts.
PGE Foundation names former PGE CEO Peggy Fowler as new boar
Peggy began her tenure at Portland General Electric in 1974 as a chemist and went on to manage almost every major area of the company before becoming PGE’s first female CEO in 2000. She guided Oregon’s largest electric util
Peggy began her tenure at Portland General Electric in 1974 as a chemist and went on to manage almost every major area of the company before becoming PGE’s first female CEO in 2000. She guided Oregon’s largest electric util
Corporate Governance | Portland General Electric Company
Renée J. James is the founder ... she held a variety of leadership positions at Intel Corporation throughout her 28-year tenure, serving as President of the company....
Renée J. James is the founder ... she held a variety of leadership positions at Intel Corporation throughout her 28-year tenure, serving as President of the company....
Capital Allocation & Strategy
Portland General Electric announces 2024 financial results a
$78 million in capital investments to continue system hardening and grid design efforts, expand situational awareness capabilities, implement specific inspection and maintenance, vegetation management, community outreach an
$78 million in capital investments to continue system hardening and grid design efforts, expand situational awareness capabilities, implement specific inspection and maintenance, vegetation management, community outreach an
Corporate Governance | Portland General Electric Company
McFarland rejoined PGE in 2024 and has over 20 years of experience across the Energy, Automotive, and Consumer Products industries with a focus on general management, operations, and product development.
McFarland rejoined PGE in 2024 and has over 20 years of experience across the Energy, Automotive, and Consumer Products industries with a focus on general management, operations, and product development.
Employee Ratings
Overall Rating
3.5/5 ★★★★☆
Reviews
160
Culture Signal
Mixed
✅ Strengths
- recommend
⚠️ Concerns
- layoffs
Employee Review Excerpts
Portland General Electric Reviews (366): Pros & Cons of Work
Employees also rated Portland General Electric 3.5 out of 5 for work life balance, 3.5 for culture and values and 3.6 for career opportunities. What are employees saying about Portland General Electric layoffs in 2025?Explo
Employees also rated Portland General Electric 3.5 out of 5 for work life balance, 3.5 for culture and values and 3.6 for career opportunities. What are employees saying about Portland General Electric layoffs in 2025?Explo
Portland General Electric - Solid company with great potenti
Oct 10, 2025 · Anonymous employee · Current employee, less than 1 year · Recommend · CEO approval · Business outlook · Pros · The pay and benefits are great. There are lots of talented folks that contribute greatly to the c
Oct 10, 2025 · Anonymous employee · Current employee, less than 1 year · Recommend · CEO approval · Business outlook · Pros · The pay and benefits are great. There are lots of talented folks that contribute greatly to the c
Portland General Electric - PGE is okay, but I expected bett
Nov 18, 2025 · Design engineer · Current employee, less than 1 year · Portland, OR · Recommend · CEO approval · Business outlook · Pros · Great work environment and culture. Training has been very good - well communicated w
Nov 18, 2025 · Design engineer · Current employee, less than 1 year · Portland, OR · Recommend · CEO approval · Business outlook · Pros · Great work environment and culture. Training has been very good - well communicated w
Sources: Finnhub insider data · Brave Search (Glassdoor, Indeed, Comparably, news) · Earnings surprise data from analyst forecasts · Qualitative signals are directional only.
⚖️ DDM Verdict: Hold — Portland General Electric Company (POR)
Current price: $51.58 | Analyst Avg PT: $49.50
$42
🔴 Bear
$51
📊 Base
$59
🚀 Bull
| Tier | Price | Action |
|---|---|---|
| Tier 1 — Starter | ≤$47 | Begin position |
| Tier 2 — Add | ≤$47 | Add on weakness |
| Tier 3 — Full | ≤$40 | Full allocation |
| Sell Alert | ≥$59 | Above fair value — consider trimming |
How tiers are set: Tier 1 = Base IV × 0.92 (8% discount to base case). Tier 2 = midpoint of Bear & Base IV (building on meaningful weakness). Tier 3 = Bear IV × 1.05 (just above worst-case — maximum margin of safety). Sell alert = Bull IV × 0.85 (15% discount to bull case — above fair value range).
Verdict: Hold. At $51.58, the shares sit in a reasonable range relative to the base-case value of $51. Add only on weakness toward the entry tiers below.
📂 Current Position Summary
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Shares Held | 117 |
| Average Cost Basis | $42.57 |
| Current Market Value | $6,035 |
| Unrealized P&L | $+1,054 (+21.2%) |
| Annual DPS | $2.100/yr |
| Annual Dividend Income | $246/yr |
| Current Yield (at price) | 4.07% |
| Yield on Cost | 4.93% |
| vs Target (~$200K) | $6,035 / $200,000 (3%) |
🔧 Model Notes & Calibration
| Assumption | Rationale / Notes |
|---|---|
| Model Selection | 3-Stage DDM — POR is a regulated utility with explicit, consistent dividend policy. DPS is the natural valuation anchor. FCF is negative (heavy capex), so DCF is inappropriate. |
| Ke Build | β=0.57, Rf=4.25%, ERP=5.5% → Ke=7.39%. Low beta reflects utility stability. |
| Growth Calibration | POR has grown dividends at ~5%/yr for 20 years. Stage 1 Base at 5% matches management guidance and historical pattern. Analysts see EPS growth of 25% in 2026 (off depressed 2025 base) normalizing to 5% thereafter. |
| Negative FCF | POR has negative FCF due to $800M+/yr capex — normal for a growth utility. Do NOT interpret as distress. Rate base growth is the value driver. |
| Dilution Flag | Shares outstanding grew from 89M to 116M (2021–2025), 29% dilution. This is equity financing for capex — common for utilities but a headwind for per-share value. |
Bore Family Office • Analysis generated by Lurch • Not investment advice.