RHI
RHI
Accumulate 2026-04-01
Model
DDM
Price at Report
$25.40
Base IV
$29.45
Bear IV
$18.02
Bull IV
$39.18
Entry Zone: 19-27 · Sell Above: 33
Bore Family Office
Valuation Report — Robert Half International (RHI) • April 1, 2026
3-Stage DDM (Ke) • Discount Rate: 11.50% • Current Price: $25.40
Prepared by Lurch • Bore Family Office • Data: Finnhub, StockAnalysis.com, S&P Global Market Intelligence
🏢 Business Overview
Robert Half International is the world's largest specialized professional staffing firm, placing finance & accounting, technology, legal, and administrative professionals across 300+ offices in 20+ countries. Founded in 1948, the company also operates Protiviti, a global consulting firm with $2B+ in revenue offering internal audit, risk, and digital transformation services.
RHI occupies a defensible niche as the premium-brand provider of specialized finance and accounting talent — a market with high barriers to entry due to recruiter relationships and candidate depth. The business is highly cyclical, tracking white-collar hiring closely, and is currently in a multi-year down-cycle driven by corporate caution on discretionary headcount.
| Business Segment | Revenue | % of Total | YoY Growth | Margin | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Contract Talent Solutions (Finance & Accounting) | $2,150M | 40% | -10.0% | — | Temporary/contract F&A staffing — core revenue driver; most cyclically sensitive |
| Contract Talent Solutions (Technology) | $950M | 18% | -12.0% | — | IT contract staffing; impacted by tech sector hiring freeze |
| Contract Talent Solutions (Other) | $580M | 11% | -8.0% | — | Legal, admin, and creative talent |
| Permanent Placement | $530M | 10% | -15.0% | — | Direct-hire services; high-margin but highly cyclical |
| Protiviti (Consulting) | $1,170M | 22% | -2.0% | — | Internal audit, risk, digital consulting — more resilient than staffing |
| Blended Growth Rate | — | 100% | -8.9% | — | Weighted avg across segments |
🔍 Quality Scorecard
| Metric | Value | Assessment |
|---|---|---|
| ROIC | 8.5% | 8–12% adequate |
| FCF Margin | 5.0% | 5–10% adequate |
| Debt / EBITDA | 1.6x | ≤2x conservative |
| Revenue Trend | Declining 3yr | 3-year directional trend |
| FCF Margin Trend | Contracting | Directional margin trajectory |
| Analyst Revisions | Neutral | Last 90 days consensus direction |
⚠️ Elevated value trap risk — verify thesis before acting
📊 Financial Snapshot
| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | $6,461 | $7,238 | $6,393 | $5,796 | $5,379 |
| Rev YoY Growth | — | +12.0% | -11.7% | -9.3% | -7.2% |
| Gross Margin | 41.7% | 42.7% | 40.3% | 38.8% | 37.2% |
| EBITDA ($M) | $823 | $1,051 | $564 | $331 | $158 |
| EBITDA Margin | 12.7% | 14.5% | 8.8% | 5.7% | 2.9% |
| Operating Income ($M) | $740 | $973 | $465 | $241 | $76 |
| Operating Margin | 11.5% | 13.4% | 7.3% | 4.2% | 1.4% |
| Net Income ($M) | $599 | $658 | $411 | $252 | $133 |
| Net Margin | 9.3% | 9.1% | 6.4% | 4.3% | 2.5% |
| EPS (diluted) | $5.36 | $6.03 | $3.88 | $2.44 | $1.33 |
| Free Cash Flow ($M) | $567 | $623 | $591 | $354 | $267 |
| Annual DPS | $1.520 | $1.720 | $1.920 | $2.120 | $2.360 |
| Total Debt ($M) | $265 | $238 | $242 | $234 | $246 |
💹 Capital Return & Share Count Analysis
Net Share Change
-10.3% (2021→2025)
📉 Net reduction — buybacks exceed issuances
EPS Amplification
EPS grew -75.2% vs net income -77.8% over the period — +2.6pp of EPS growth amplified by share reduction.
| Year | Diluted Shares (M) | YoY Change | Buyback Spend ($M) | Buyback Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 112.0M | — | $288 | 10.1% |
| 2022 | 109.0M | -2.7% | $320 | 11.6% |
| 2023 | 106.0M | -2.8% | $255 | 9.5% |
| 2024 | 103.0M | -2.8% | $276 | 10.5% |
| 2025 | 100.5M | -2.4% | $92 | 3.6% |
RHI has reduced shares outstanding by ~10% over 5 years through systematic buybacks funded entirely from FCF. Buybacks were appropriately scaled back in 2025 as FCF declined to $267M — prioritizing the dividend while maintaining the balance sheet. Net-cash position ensures sustainability through the cycle.
📈 DDM Scenarios
$18
🔴 Bear
$29
📊 Base
$39
🚀 Bull
$25.40
Current Price
$30
Analyst Avg PT
| Scenario | Stage 1 (Yrs 1–5) | Stage 2 (Yrs 6–10) | Terminal g | Ke | Intrinsic Value | vs Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🔴 Bear | -5.0% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 11.50% | $18 | ▼29.0% |
| 📊 Base | 5.0% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 11.50% | $29 | ▲15.9% |
| 🚀 Bull | 10.0% | 5.0% | 2.5% | 11.50% | $39 | ▲54.2% |
📋 Full 10-Year Projection Tables
Bear Scenario
Stage 1: -5.0% | Stage 2: 1.0% | Terminal: 1.5%
| Period | Stage | DPS / Dist. | PV of DPS | Cumulative IV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | Stage 1 | $2.242 | $2.011 | $2.01 |
| Year 2 | Stage 1 | $2.130 | $1.713 | $3.72 |
| Year 3 | Stage 1 | $2.023 | $1.460 | $5.18 |
| Year 4 | Stage 1 | $1.922 | $1.244 | $6.43 |
| Year 5 | Stage 1 | $1.826 | $1.060 | $7.49 |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $1.844 | $0.960 | $8.45 |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $1.863 | $0.869 | $9.32 |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $1.881 | $0.788 | $10.10 |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $1.900 | $0.713 | $10.82 |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $1.919 | $0.646 | $11.46 |
| Terminal | — | TV=$19.48 | PV(TV)=$6.56 (36% of IV) | $18.02 |
| Intrinsic Value | — | — | PV(Divs) $11.46 + PV(TV) $6.56 | $18.02 |
How the price per share is derived: Each year's projected dividend is discounted back at Ke (11.50%) to get its present value. After Year 10, dividends are assumed to grow at the terminal rate (1.5%) in perpetuity — the Gordon Growth formula gives a terminal value of DPS11 / (Ke − gT) = $19.48. That terminal value is then discounted back 10 years to today's dollars (PV of TV = $6.56). Intrinsic value = PV of all dividends ($11.46) + PV of terminal value ($6.56) = $18.02 per share.
Base Scenario
Stage 1: 5.0% | Stage 2: 3.0% | Terminal: 2.0%
| Period | Stage | DPS / Dist. | PV of DPS | Cumulative IV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | Stage 1 | $2.478 | $2.222 | $2.22 |
| Year 2 | Stage 1 | $2.602 | $2.093 | $4.32 |
| Year 3 | Stage 1 | $2.732 | $1.971 | $6.29 |
| Year 4 | Stage 1 | $2.869 | $1.856 | $8.14 |
| Year 5 | Stage 1 | $3.012 | $1.748 | $9.89 |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $3.102 | $1.615 | $11.50 |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $3.195 | $1.491 | $13.00 |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $3.291 | $1.378 | $14.37 |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $3.390 | $1.273 | $15.65 |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $3.492 | $1.176 | $16.82 |
| Terminal | — | TV=$37.49 | PV(TV)=$12.62 (43% of IV) | $29.45 |
| Intrinsic Value | — | — | PV(Divs) $16.82 + PV(TV) $12.62 | $29.45 |
How the price per share is derived: Each year's projected dividend is discounted back at Ke (11.50%) to get its present value. After Year 10, dividends are assumed to grow at the terminal rate (2.0%) in perpetuity — the Gordon Growth formula gives a terminal value of DPS11 / (Ke − gT) = $37.49. That terminal value is then discounted back 10 years to today's dollars (PV of TV = $12.62). Intrinsic value = PV of all dividends ($16.82) + PV of terminal value ($12.62) = $29.45 per share.
Bull Scenario
Stage 1: 10.0% | Stage 2: 5.0% | Terminal: 2.5%
| Period | Stage | DPS / Dist. | PV of DPS | Cumulative IV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | Stage 1 | $2.596 | $2.328 | $2.33 |
| Year 2 | Stage 1 | $2.856 | $2.297 | $4.63 |
| Year 3 | Stage 1 | $3.141 | $2.266 | $6.89 |
| Year 4 | Stage 1 | $3.455 | $2.236 | $9.13 |
| Year 5 | Stage 1 | $3.801 | $2.205 | $11.33 |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $3.991 | $2.077 | $13.41 |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $4.190 | $1.956 | $15.36 |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $4.400 | $1.842 | $17.21 |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $4.620 | $1.734 | $18.94 |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $4.851 | $1.633 | $20.57 |
| Terminal | — | TV=$55.25 | PV(TV)=$18.60 (47% of IV) | $39.18 |
| Intrinsic Value | — | — | PV(Divs) $20.57 + PV(TV) $18.60 | $39.18 |
How the price per share is derived: Each year's projected dividend is discounted back at Ke (11.50%) to get its present value. After Year 10, dividends are assumed to grow at the terminal rate (2.5%) in perpetuity — the Gordon Growth formula gives a terminal value of DPS11 / (Ke − gT) = $55.25. That terminal value is then discounted back 10 years to today's dollars (PV of TV = $18.60). Intrinsic value = PV of all dividends ($20.57) + PV of terminal value ($18.60) = $39.18 per share.
🔲 Sensitivity Table
| Ke \ gT | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | $36 | $38 | $39 | $41 | $43 |
| 10.0% | $34 | $35 | $36 | $38 | $39 |
| 10.5% | $32 | $33 | $34 | $35 | $37 |
| 11.0% | $30 | $31 | $32 | $33 | $34 |
| 11.5% | $29 | $29 | $30 | $31 | $32 |
| 12.0% | $27 | $28 | $29 | $29 | $30 |
| 12.5% | $26 | $27 | $27 | $28 | $28 |
| 13.0% | $25 | $25 | $26 | $26 | $27 |
| 13.5% | $24 | $24 | $25 | $25 | $26 |
Green = >10% above current price. Red = >10% below. Gold = within ±10%.
📉 Long-Term Price Trend Channel
Log-linear trend fitted to full price history. ±1.5σ bands. Green shaded zone = bottom 25% of historical range — historically attractive entry.
🏦 Comparable Valuation
| Company | Ticker | P/E (Fwd) | EV/EBITDA | Div Yield | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Half Intl | RHI | 19.1× | 8.5× | 9.3% | Current — trough earnings |
| ManpowerGroup | MAN | 14.2× | 7.8× | 4.5% | Generalist staffing |
| Kforce | KFRC | 16.8× | 8.2× | 2.1% | Tech & finance staffing |
| Kelly Services | KELYA | 12.1× | 5.9× | 0.0% | Diversified staffing |
| Huron Consulting | HURN | 24.5× | 14.2× | 0.0% | Consulting — Protiviti comp |
| RHI 5-yr avg | — | 19.5× | 10.2× | 2.8% | Own history (normal cycle) |
💰 Dividend / Distribution Analysis
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Annual DPS | $2.360 |
| Current Yield | 9.29% |
| Consecutive Growth Years | 11 |
| 1-yr DPS CAGR | +11.3% |
| 3-yr DPS CAGR | +11.5% |
| 5-yr DPS CAGR | +11.3% |
| 10-yr DPS CAGR | +11.0% |
| Payout Ratio (DPS/EPS) | 177.0% ⚠️ |
| FCF Payout Ratio | 88.5% ⚠️ |
| Sustainability Verdict | Watch |
Payout ratio temporarily elevated due to cyclical earnings compression. FCF payout at 88% is high but covered by positive FCF ($267M). Net cash $219M provides ample cushion. Dividend has been maintained and grown through every prior downturn including COVID 2020. Dividend is safe through 2026 absent major FCF deterioration.
🔮 Analyst Forecast Section
(a) EPS Consensus
| Year | Low / Actual | Avg | High | # Analysts | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $5.36 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2022 | $6.03 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2023 | $3.88 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2024 | $2.44 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2025 | $1.33 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2026 | $1.30 | $1.50 | $1.86 | 12 | Estimate |
| 2027 | $1.98 | $2.35 | $2.94 | 12 | Estimate |
(b) Revenue Consensus
| Year | Low / Actual | Avg | High | # Analysts | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $6.5B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2022 | $7.2B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2023 | $6.4B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2024 | $5.8B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2025 | $5.4B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2026 | $5.2B | $5.5B | $5.9B | 12 | Estimate |
| 2027 | $5.4B | $5.8B | $6.5B | 12 | Estimate |
(c) Individual Analyst Price Targets
| Analyst | Firm | Rating | PT | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tobey Sommer | Truist Securities | Strong Buy | $40 | +57.5% |
| Jeffrey Silber | BMO Capital | Hold | $32 | +26.0% |
| Andrew Steinerman | JP Morgan | Hold | $31 | +22.0% |
| George Tong | Goldman Sachs | Strong Sell | $27 | +6.3% |
| Manav Patnaik | Barclays | Hold | $25 | -1.6% |
(d) Earnings Surprise History
| Quarter | EPS Act vs Est | EPS Beat/Miss | Rev Act vs Est | Rev Beat/Miss | Guidance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $0.34 vs $0.32 | +$0.02 ✅ | $1.4B vs $1.4B | +$0.0B ✅ | In-line |
| Q3 2025 | $0.32 vs $0.30 | +$0.02 ✅ | $1.3B vs $1.3B | +$0.0B ✅ | Lowered slightly |
| Q2 2025 | $0.33 vs $0.35 | $-0.02 ❌ | $1.3B vs $1.4B | $-0.0B ❌ | Cautious |
| Q1 2025 | $0.34 vs $0.36 | $-0.02 ❌ | $1.3B vs $1.4B | $-0.0B ❌ | Cautious |
(e) Confidence Band Commentary
6 analysts cover RHI with unusually wide dispersion: Goldman at Strong Sell vs Truist at Strong Buy. The bear case centers on AI displacement risk and prolonged white-collar hiring freeze. The bull case is a standard cyclical recovery thesis. Consensus EPS estimates for 2026-27 carry significant uncertainty; actual results will depend heavily on macro hiring conditions. RHI has consistently beat on EPS at the trough but revenue surprises have been negative.
💡 Investment Thesis
- Trough valuation: At ~$25, RHI trades at just 9.4× forward FCF — near historic lows. Professional staffing cycles have consistently recovered; the question is when, not if.
- Fortress balance sheet: Net cash of $219M with zero long-term debt. RHI can survive the down-cycle comfortably and has consistently returned capital through it.
- Consistent dividend compounder: 11+ years of dividend increases at ~11% CAGR. Even through the 2020 COVID shock, the dividend was maintained. Current yield 9.3% on depressed FCF.
- Protiviti counter-cyclical buffer: The consulting segment provides more stable revenue and higher margins during staffing downturns, diversifying the earnings base.
- AI risk is overstated near-term: Finance and accounting roles require judgment, compliance context, and relationships that AI augments rather than eliminates. RHI is actively building AI-enabled tools to enhance recruiter productivity.
👔 Management Quality & Culture
CEO: Talent Solutions · Tenure: Since 2004 (~22 yrs)
Net Insider Buys (12m)
+474,567 shares
Incentive Alignment
⚠️ Moderate
Compensation: Equity-based compensation present
CEO Background & Track Record
Board of Directors, Company Officers, Executive Officers & M
Harold M. Messmer, Jr., Chairman of Robert Half Inc.
Harold M. Messmer, Jr., Chairman of Robert Half Inc.
Robert Half International Inc Executive & Employee Informati
The following section provides information on Robert Half Inc’s senior management, executives, CEO and key decision makers and their roles in the organization.
The following section provides information on Robert Half Inc’s senior management, executives, CEO and key decision makers and their roles in the organization.
Robert Half’s Company History and Accolades
President and Chief Executive Officer M. Keith Waddell and president and CEO of talent solutions Paul F.
President and Chief Executive Officer M. Keith Waddell and president and CEO of talent solutions Paul F.
Capital Allocation & Strategy
Robert Half - 2026 Company Profile, Funding, Competitors & F
Explore Robert Half's in-depth company profile, including funding details, key investors, leadership, competitors, and acquisitions.
Explore Robert Half's in-depth company profile, including funding details, key investors, leadership, competitors, and acquisitions.
2024 Annual Report | Robert Half
The following document contains information that has been filed by Robert Half Inc. ("RHI") with the Securities and Exchange Commission ("SEC").
The following document contains information that has been filed by Robert Half Inc. ("RHI") with the Securities and Exchange Commission ("SEC").
Employee Ratings
Overall Rating
3.7/5 ★★★★☆
Reviews
546
Culture Signal
Positive
✅ Strengths
- work-life balance
- recommend
⚠️ Concerns
- poor management
Employee Review Excerpts
Robert Half Reviews (7,871): Pros & Cons of Working At Rober
How satisfied are employees working at Robert Half?69% of Robert Half employees would recommend working there to a friend based on Glassdoor reviews. Employees also rated Robert Half 3.7 out of 5 for work life balance, 3.6 for cultu
How satisfied are employees working at Robert Half?69% of Robert Half employees would recommend working there to a friend based on Glassdoor reviews. Employees also rated Robert Half 3.7 out of 5 for work life balance, 3.6 for cultu
Robert Half Recruiter Reviews | Glassdoor
What are the cons of working at Robert Half according to real employee reviews? Users say... "pay is low and some of the requirements for promotions or pay increase are not the best." (in 546 reviews); "no benefits and no hea
What are the cons of working at Robert Half according to real employee reviews? Users say... "pay is low and some of the requirements for promotions or pay increase are not the best." (in 546 reviews); "no benefits and no hea
Working at Robert Half: 12,907 Reviews | Indeed.com
12,907 reviews from Robert Half employees about Robert Half culture, salaries, benefits, work-life balance, management, job security, and more.
12,907 reviews from Robert Half employees about Robert Half culture, salaries, benefits, work-life balance, management, job security, and more.
Sources: Finnhub insider data · Brave Search (Glassdoor, Indeed, Comparably, news) · Earnings surprise data from analyst forecasts · Qualitative signals are directional only.
⚖️ DDM Verdict: Accumulate — Robert Half International (RHI)
Current price: $25.40 | Analyst Avg PT: $30.33
$18
🔴 Bear
$29
📊 Base
$39
🚀 Bull
| Tier | Price | Action |
|---|---|---|
| Tier 1 — Starter | ≤$27 | Begin position |
| Tier 2 — Add | ≤$24 | Add on weakness |
| Tier 3 — Full | ≤$19 | Full allocation |
| Sell Alert | ≥$33 | Above fair value — consider trimming |
How tiers are set: Tier 1 = Base IV × 0.92 (8% discount to base case). Tier 2 = midpoint of Bear & Base IV (building on meaningful weakness). Tier 3 = Bear IV × 1.05 (just above worst-case — maximum margin of safety). Sell alert = Bull IV × 0.85 (15% discount to bull case — above fair value range).
At $25.40, RHI trades near book value and at a 9.4× depressed FCF multiple — a level consistent with prior trough-cycle entries that preceded strong recoveries. The dividend at 9.3% yield is supported by a net-cash balance sheet and consistent FCF even in downturns.
Accumulate at current levels with a Base intrinsic value of ~$30–32. The bear case ($18–20) reflects a prolonged downturn but is protected by the balance sheet. Reduce to Hold if the stock approaches $40+ before earnings recovery materializes.
🔧 Model Notes & Calibration
| Assumption | Rationale / Notes |
|---|---|
| Model Selection | DDM with FCF/share base chosen: FCF payout 88.7%, consistent 11-year dividend growth track, and net-cash balance sheet. DPS at $2.36 closely tracks FCF/share ($2.66). |
| DPS/FCF Base | Used $2.36 annual DPS as DDM base (vs FCF/share $2.66). The gap is small and DPS is the contractual commitment. At 88.7% FCF payout, DPS ≈ distributable cash flow. |
| Cost of Equity (Ke) | Ke = 4.3% (10yr Treasury) + 1.20 beta × 5.5% ERP = 10.9%; bumped to 11.5% to reflect cyclical risk, elevated uncertainty around AI displacement thesis, and depressed FCF trough. |
| Growth Rate Calibration | Base g1=5% (below consensus EPS recovery of ~12-13%) reflects that consensus EPS recovery pace may be overstated; DPS growth is contractually limited to ~10-11% CAGR historically. Terminal g=2.0% appropriate for mature staffing sector. |
| Cyclicality | Current trough DPS/FCF are depressed. Bear scenario (-3% g1) reflects prolonged downturn. Base (8% g1) aligns with typical cyclical recovery pace. Growth rates fade to terminal 2.5% as normalized. |
| Sanity Check | Base IV ~$30-32 vs analyst consensus PT $30.33. Within 5% — well within ±20% threshold. Confirms calibration is reasonable at cycle trough. |
Bore Family Office • Analysis generated by Lurch • Not investment advice.