TST
TST
HOLD 2026-05-07
Model
DCF
Price at Report
$85.00
Base IV
$95.69
Bear IV
$64.32
Bull IV
$150.20
Entry Zone: 61-88 · Sell Above: 128
Bore Family Office
Valuation Report — Test Corp (TST) • May 7, 2026
Unlevered DCF (FCFF @ WACC) • Discount Rate: 8.50% • Current Price: $85.00
Prepared by Lurch • Bore Family Office • Data: Finnhub, StockAnalysis.com, S&P Global Market Intelligence
📊 Business Lifecycle Stage
Stage 1
Startup
Startup
Stage 2
Hyper Growth
Hyper Growth
Stage 3
Self Funding
Self Funding
Stage 4
Operating Leverage
Operating Leverage
Stage 5
Capital Return
Capital Return
Stage 6
Decline
Decline
Stage 3 — Growth: Revenue growing rapidly, approaching breakeven. FCF turning positive — DCF is appropriate with normalized near-breakeven years.
Why this drives model selection: FCF turning positive — DCF appropriate with normalized near-breakeven years.
📈 DCF Scenarios
$64
🔴 Bear
$96
📊 Base
$150
🚀 Bull
$85.00
Current Price
$95
Analyst Avg PT
| Scenario | Stage 1 (Yrs 1–5) | Stage 2 (Yrs 6–10) | Terminal g | WACC | Intrinsic Value | vs Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🔴 Bear | 6.0% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 9.50% | $64 | ▼24.3% |
| 📊 Base | 8.0% | 4.5% | 2.5% | 8.50% | $96 | ▲12.6% |
| 🚀 Bull | 10.0% | 5.5% | 3.0% | 7.50% | $150 | ▲76.7% |
📋 Full 10-Year Projection Tables
Bear Scenario
Stage 1: 6.0% | Stage 2: 3.5% | Terminal: 2.0%
| Period | Stage | FCFF | PV of FCFF | Cumulative EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | Stage 1 | $0.53B | $0.48B | $0.48B |
| Year 2 | Stage 1 | $0.56B | $0.47B | $0.95B |
| Year 3 | Stage 1 | $0.60B | $0.45B | $1.41B |
| Year 4 | Stage 1 | $0.63B | $0.44B | $1.85B |
| Year 5 | Stage 1 | $0.67B | $0.43B | $2.27B |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $0.69B | $0.40B | $2.67B |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $0.72B | $0.38B | $3.05B |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $0.74B | $0.36B | $3.41B |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $0.77B | $0.34B | $3.75B |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $0.79B | $0.32B | $4.07B |
| Terminal | — | TV=$10.8B | PV(TV)=$4.4B (52% of EV) | EV=$8.4B |
| Intrinsic Value | — | — | EV $8.4B − Net Debt → Equity / Shares | $64 |
How the price per share is derived: Each year's projected free cash flow is discounted back at WACC (9.50%) to get its present value. After Year 10, FCF grows at the terminal rate (2.0%) in perpetuity — the Gordon Growth formula gives a terminal value of FCF11 / (WACC − gT) = $10.8B. That terminal value is discounted back 10 years to today's dollars (PV of TV = $4.4B). Enterprise Value = PV of FCFs ($4.1B) + PV of TV ($4.4B) = $8.4B. Subtracting net debt gives equity value of $6.4B, divided by shares outstanding = $64 per share.
Base Scenario
Stage 1: 8.0% | Stage 2: 4.5% | Terminal: 2.5%
| Period | Stage | FCFF | PV of FCFF | Cumulative EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | Stage 1 | $0.54B | $0.50B | $0.50B |
| Year 2 | Stage 1 | $0.58B | $0.50B | $0.99B |
| Year 3 | Stage 1 | $0.63B | $0.49B | $1.49B |
| Year 4 | Stage 1 | $0.68B | $0.49B | $1.98B |
| Year 5 | Stage 1 | $0.73B | $0.49B | $2.47B |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $0.77B | $0.47B | $2.94B |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $0.80B | $0.45B | $3.39B |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $0.84B | $0.44B | $3.83B |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $0.88B | $0.42B | $4.25B |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $0.92B | $0.40B | $4.65B |
| Terminal | — | TV=$15.6B | PV(TV)=$6.9B (60% of EV) | EV=$11.6B |
| Intrinsic Value | — | — | EV $11.6B − Net Debt → Equity / Shares | $96 |
How the price per share is derived: Each year's projected free cash flow is discounted back at WACC (8.50%) to get its present value. After Year 10, FCF grows at the terminal rate (2.5%) in perpetuity — the Gordon Growth formula gives a terminal value of FCF11 / (WACC − gT) = $15.6B. That terminal value is discounted back 10 years to today's dollars (PV of TV = $6.9B). Enterprise Value = PV of FCFs ($4.7B) + PV of TV ($6.9B) = $11.6B. Subtracting net debt gives equity value of $9.6B, divided by shares outstanding = $96 per share.
Bull Scenario
Stage 1: 10.0% | Stage 2: 5.5% | Terminal: 3.0%
| Period | Stage | FCFF | PV of FCFF | Cumulative EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | Stage 1 | $0.55B | $0.51B | $0.51B |
| Year 2 | Stage 1 | $0.60B | $0.52B | $1.04B |
| Year 3 | Stage 1 | $0.67B | $0.54B | $1.57B |
| Year 4 | Stage 1 | $0.73B | $0.55B | $2.12B |
| Year 5 | Stage 1 | $0.81B | $0.56B | $2.68B |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $0.85B | $0.55B | $3.23B |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $0.90B | $0.54B | $3.77B |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $0.95B | $0.53B | $4.30B |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $1.00B | $0.52B | $4.82B |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $1.05B | $0.51B | $5.33B |
| Terminal | — | TV=$24.1B | PV(TV)=$11.7B (69% of EV) | EV=$17.0B |
| Intrinsic Value | — | — | EV $17.0B − Net Debt → Equity / Shares | $150 |
How the price per share is derived: Each year's projected free cash flow is discounted back at WACC (7.50%) to get its present value. After Year 10, FCF grows at the terminal rate (3.0%) in perpetuity — the Gordon Growth formula gives a terminal value of FCF11 / (WACC − gT) = $24.1B. That terminal value is discounted back 10 years to today's dollars (PV of TV = $11.7B). Enterprise Value = PV of FCFs ($5.3B) + PV of TV ($11.7B) = $17.0B. Subtracting net debt gives equity value of $15.0B, divided by shares outstanding = $150 per share.
🔲 Sensitivity Table
| WACC \ gT | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.5% | $130 | $142 | $156 | $175 | $200 |
| 7.0% | $116 | $125 | $136 | $150 | $168 |
| 7.5% | $104 | $111 | $120 | $131 | $144 |
| 8.0% | $94 | $100 | $107 | $115 | $125 |
| 8.5% | $85 | $90 | $96 | $102 | $110 |
| 9.0% | $78 | $82 | $86 | $92 | $98 |
| 9.5% | $71 | $75 | $78 | $83 | $88 |
| 10.0% | $65 | $68 | $72 | $75 | $79 |
| 10.5% | $60 | $63 | $65 | $69 | $72 |
Green = >10% above current price. Red = >10% below. Gold = within ±10%.
👔 Management Quality & Culture
CEO: Not identified
Incentive Alignment
❓ Unclear
Employee Ratings
Culture Signal
Mixed
Sources: Finnhub insider data · Brave Search (Glassdoor, Indeed, Comparably, news) · Earnings surprise data from analyst forecasts · Qualitative signals are directional only.
⚖️ DCF Verdict: HOLD — Test Corp (TST)
Current price: $85.00 | Analyst Avg PT: $95.00
$64
🔴 Bear
$96
📊 Base
$150
🚀 Bull
| Tier | Price | Action |
|---|---|---|
| Tier 1 — Starter | ≤$88 | Begin position |
| Tier 2 — Add | ≤$80 | Add on weakness |
| Tier 3 — Full | ≤$61 | Full allocation |
| Sell Alert | ≥$128 | Above fair value — consider trimming |
How tiers are set: Tier 1 = Base IV × 0.92 (8% discount to base case). Tier 2 = midpoint of Bear & Base IV (building on meaningful weakness). Tier 3 = Bear IV × 1.05 (just above worst-case — maximum margin of safety). Sell alert = Bull IV × 0.85 (15% discount to bull case — above fair value range).
Verdict: Hold. At $85.00, the shares sit in a reasonable range relative to the base-case value of $96. Add only on weakness toward the entry tiers below.
Bore Family Office • Analysis generated by Lurch • Not investment advice.