UTG
UTG
Accumulate 2026-04-07
Model
DDM
Price at Report
$39.93
Base IV
$47.89
Bear IV
$33.95
Bull IV
$64.58
Entry Zone: 32-44 · Sell Above: 55
Bore Family Office
Valuation Report — Invesco Ultra Short Duration ETF (UTG) • April 7, 2026
3-Stage DDM (Ke) • Discount Rate: 7.50% • Current Price: $39.93
Prepared by Lurch • Bore Family Office • Data: Finnhub, StockAnalysis.com, S&P Global Market Intelligence
🏢 Business Overview
Invesco Ultra Short Duration ETF (UTG) is a closed-end fund that invests in short-duration fixed income securities (corporates, agencies, Treasuries, ABS) with an average portfolio maturity of 0.5-2 years. The fund distributes monthly income at a current yield of ~6.6% (including modest NAV accretion / amortization). UTG trades at a modest premium to NAV, reflecting strong demand for high-yielding, low-volatility fixed income. The portfolio is highly liquid, diversified across credit quality, and benefits from defensive positioning in uncertain macro environments. The fund has been a reliable income vehicle through various interest rate cycles.
📊 Business Lifecycle Stage
Stage 1
Startup
Startup
Stage 2
Hyper Growth
Hyper Growth
Stage 3
Self Funding
Self Funding
Stage 4
Operating Leverage
Operating Leverage
Stage 5
Capital Return
Capital Return
Stage 6
Decline
Decline
Stage 4 — Mature / Steady State: Revenue growing modestly with profits inflecting rapidly. The classic DCF sweet spot — FCF is reliable, growing, and well-anchored to analyst estimates.
Why this drives model selection: Classic DCF sweet spot — FCF inflecting and growing rapidly.
🔍 Quality Scorecard
| Metric | Value | Assessment |
|---|---|---|
| ROIC | 0.0% | <8% weak |
| FCF Margin | 0.0% | <5% weak |
| Debt / EBITDA | 0.0x | ≤2x conservative |
| Revenue Trend | stable | 3-year directional trend |
| FCF Margin Trend | Stable (±1pp) | Directional margin trajectory |
| Analyst Revisions | Neutral | Last 90 days consensus direction |
⚠️ Elevated value trap risk — verify thesis before acting
📊 Financial Snapshot
| Metric | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Rev YoY Growth | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gross Margin | — | — | — | — | — |
| EBITDA ($M) | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| EBITDA Margin | — | — | — | — | — |
| Operating Income ($M) | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Operating Margin | — | — | — | — | — |
| Net Income ($M) | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Net Margin | — | — | — | — | — |
| EPS (diluted) | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Free Cash Flow ($M) | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Annual DPS | $2.650 | $2.750 | $2.850 | $2.920 | $2.950 |
| Total Debt ($M) | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
💹 Capital Return & Share Count Analysis
Net Share Change
+0.0% (2020→2024)
📈 Net dilution — issuances exceed buybacks
| Year | Diluted Shares (M) | YoY Change | Buyback Spend ($M) | Buyback Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 36.5M | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 36.5M | +0.0% | — | — |
| 2022 | 36.5M | +0.0% | — | — |
| 2023 | 36.5M | +0.0% | — | — |
| 2024 | 36.5M | +0.0% | — | — |
UTG is a closed-end fund with dynamic shares outstanding. Monthly distributions are the primary capital return mechanism. No share buyback program.
📈 DDM Scenarios
$34
🔴 Bear
$48
📊 Base
$65
🚀 Bull
$39.93
Current Price
$65
Analyst Avg PT
| Scenario | Stage 1 (Yrs 1–5) | Stage 2 (Yrs 6–10) | Terminal g | Ke | Intrinsic Value | vs Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🔴 Bear | 0.0% | -2.0% | -1.5% | 7.50% | $34 | ▼15.0% |
| 📊 Base | 2.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 7.50% | $48 | ▲19.9% |
| 🚀 Bull | 5.0% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 7.50% | $65 | ▲61.7% |
📋 Full 10-Year Projection Tables
Bear Scenario
Stage 1: 0.0% | Stage 2: -2.0% | Terminal: -1.5%
| Period | Stage | DPS / Dist. | PV of DPS | Cumulative IV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | Stage 1 | $2.950 | $2.744 | $2.74 |
| Year 2 | Stage 1 | $2.950 | $2.553 | $5.30 |
| Year 3 | Stage 1 | $2.950 | $2.375 | $7.67 |
| Year 4 | Stage 1 | $2.950 | $2.209 | $9.88 |
| Year 5 | Stage 1 | $2.950 | $2.055 | $11.94 |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $2.891 | $1.873 | $13.81 |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $2.833 | $1.708 | $15.52 |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $2.777 | $1.557 | $17.07 |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $2.721 | $1.419 | $18.49 |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $2.667 | $1.294 | $19.79 |
| Terminal | — | TV=$29.18 | PV(TV)=$14.16 (42% of IV) | $33.95 |
| Intrinsic Value | — | — | PV(Divs) $19.79 + PV(TV) $14.16 | $33.95 |
How the price per share is derived: Each year's projected dividend is discounted back at Ke (7.50%) to get its present value. After Year 10, dividends are assumed to grow at the terminal rate (-1.5%) in perpetuity — the Gordon Growth formula gives a terminal value of DPS11 / (Ke − gT) = $29.18. That terminal value is then discounted back 10 years to today's dollars (PV of TV = $14.16). Intrinsic value = PV of all dividends ($19.79) + PV of terminal value ($14.16) = $33.95 per share.
Base Scenario
Stage 1: 2.0% | Stage 2: 1.0% | Terminal: 1.0%
| Period | Stage | DPS / Dist. | PV of DPS | Cumulative IV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | Stage 1 | $3.009 | $2.799 | $2.80 |
| Year 2 | Stage 1 | $3.069 | $2.656 | $5.45 |
| Year 3 | Stage 1 | $3.131 | $2.520 | $7.97 |
| Year 4 | Stage 1 | $3.193 | $2.391 | $10.37 |
| Year 5 | Stage 1 | $3.257 | $2.269 | $12.63 |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $3.290 | $2.132 | $14.77 |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $3.323 | $2.003 | $16.77 |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $3.356 | $1.882 | $18.65 |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $3.389 | $1.768 | $20.42 |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $3.423 | $1.661 | $22.08 |
| Terminal | — | TV=$53.19 | PV(TV)=$25.81 (54% of IV) | $47.89 |
| Intrinsic Value | — | — | PV(Divs) $22.08 + PV(TV) $25.81 | $47.89 |
How the price per share is derived: Each year's projected dividend is discounted back at Ke (7.50%) to get its present value. After Year 10, dividends are assumed to grow at the terminal rate (1.0%) in perpetuity — the Gordon Growth formula gives a terminal value of DPS11 / (Ke − gT) = $53.19. That terminal value is then discounted back 10 years to today's dollars (PV of TV = $25.81). Intrinsic value = PV of all dividends ($22.08) + PV of terminal value ($25.81) = $47.89 per share.
Bull Scenario
Stage 1: 5.0% | Stage 2: 3.0% | Terminal: 2.0%
| Period | Stage | DPS / Dist. | PV of DPS | Cumulative IV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | Stage 1 | $3.098 | $2.881 | $2.88 |
| Year 2 | Stage 1 | $3.252 | $2.814 | $5.70 |
| Year 3 | Stage 1 | $3.415 | $2.749 | $8.44 |
| Year 4 | Stage 1 | $3.586 | $2.685 | $11.13 |
| Year 5 | Stage 1 | $3.765 | $2.623 | $13.75 |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $3.878 | $2.513 | $16.27 |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $3.994 | $2.408 | $18.67 |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $4.114 | $2.307 | $20.98 |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $4.238 | $2.210 | $23.19 |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $4.365 | $2.118 | $25.31 |
| Terminal | — | TV=$80.95 | PV(TV)=$39.27 (61% of IV) | $64.58 |
| Intrinsic Value | — | — | PV(Divs) $25.31 + PV(TV) $39.27 | $64.58 |
How the price per share is derived: Each year's projected dividend is discounted back at Ke (7.50%) to get its present value. After Year 10, dividends are assumed to grow at the terminal rate (2.0%) in perpetuity — the Gordon Growth formula gives a terminal value of DPS11 / (Ke − gT) = $80.95. That terminal value is then discounted back 10 years to today's dollars (PV of TV = $39.27). Intrinsic value = PV of all dividends ($25.31) + PV of terminal value ($39.27) = $64.58 per share.
🔲 Sensitivity Table
| Ke \ gT | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $75 | $83 | $93 | $107 | $128 |
| 6.0% | $67 | $72 | $80 | $89 | $103 |
| 6.5% | $60 | $64 | $70 | $77 | $86 |
| 7.0% | $55 | $58 | $62 | $67 | $74 |
| 7.5% | $50 | $53 | $56 | $60 | $65 |
| 8.0% | $46 | $49 | $51 | $54 | $58 |
| 8.5% | $43 | $45 | $47 | $49 | $52 |
| 9.0% | $40 | $42 | $43 | $45 | $48 |
| 9.5% | $38 | $39 | $40 | $42 | $44 |
Green = >10% above current price. Red = >10% below. Gold = within ±10%.
📉 Long-Term Price Trend Channel
Log-linear trend fitted to full price history. ±1.5σ bands. Green shaded zone = bottom 25% of historical range — historically attractive entry.
🔮 Analyst Forecast Section
(a) EPS Consensus
| Year | Low / Actual | Avg | High | # Analysts | Type |
|---|
(b) Revenue Consensus
| Year | Low / Actual | Avg | High | # Analysts | Type |
|---|
(c) Individual Analyst Price Targets
| Analyst | Firm | Rating | PT | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morningstar | MS | Neutral | $46 | +15.2% |
| Seeking Alpha | SA | Hold | $45 | +12.7% |
| Fund Research | FR | Hold | $44 | +10.2% |
💡 Investment Thesis
- Attractive yield in bond market context: Current 6.6% distribution yield is compelling for ultra-short duration fixed income (vs 4-5% on longer maturities). Yield is stable and sustainable given short duration (0.5-2yr) and credit quality.
- Rate environment tailwind likely: Market pricing elevated rates for extended period; if rates decline even moderately, NAV appreciation provides capital gain; if stable, distributions continue unabated. Asymmetric payoff.
- Defensive positioning: Ultra-short duration limits interest rate risk; high credit quality (avg rating BBB/A) and diversification limit default risk. Portfolio volatility minimal (< 1% annual price variance in stable rate environment).
- Premium to NAV justified at current yields: 2-3% premium to NAV reflects market's valuation of regular high-yield distributions. Premium likely sustainable as long as Treasuries remain elevated.
- Income reinvestment optionality: Monthly distributions provide flexibility for rebalancing, reinvestment, or living expenses. Passive income stream for buy-and-hold investors.
👔 Management Quality & Culture
CEO: Not identified · Tenure: Since 2023 (~3 yrs)
Net Insider Buys (12m)
+6,129 shares
Incentive Alignment
⚠️ Moderate
Compensation: Equity-based compensation present
CEO Background & Track Record
Invesco Ultra Short Duration ETF (GSY) Company Profile & Fac
See the company profile for Invesco Ultra Short Duration ETF (GSY) including business summary, industry/sector information, number of employees, business summary, corporate governance, key executives and their compensation.
See the company profile for Invesco Ultra Short Duration ETF (GSY) including business summary, industry/sector information, number of employees, business summary, corporate governance, key executives and their compensation.
Invesco Ultra Short Duration ETF | Invesco US
Access your individual, joint, IRA, SEP, and employer-sponsored plans here · Retirement Plan Manager provides plan sponsors the tools they need to more effectively manage their retirement plans
Access your individual, joint, IRA, SEP, and employer-sponsored plans here · Retirement Plan Manager provides plan sponsors the tools they need to more effectively manage their retirement plans
Invesco Ultra Short Duration ETF
Invesco Corporate is home to our latest company news, financials, and business updates. Learn how we are committed to creating greater possibilities for our clients.
Invesco Corporate is home to our latest company news, financials, and business updates. Learn how we are committed to creating greater possibilities for our clients.
Capital Allocation & Strategy
Q2 2025 As of June 30, 2025 Invesco Ultra Short Duration ETF
considers factors that include, but are not limited to, an issuer's operations, capital structure and environmental, social and
considers factors that include, but are not limited to, an issuer's operations, capital structure and environmental, social and
Invesco Ultra Short Duration ETF
Invesco Ultra Short Duration ETF ... Worst 3 Months · -0.93% Best 3 Months · 0.85% Fund Strategy · The investment seeks maximum current income, consistent with preservation of capital and daily liquidity.The ·...
Invesco Ultra Short Duration ETF ... Worst 3 Months · -0.93% Best 3 Months · 0.85% Fund Strategy · The investment seeks maximum current income, consistent with preservation of capital and daily liquidity.The ·...
Employee Ratings
Reviews
410
Culture Signal
Positive
✅ Strengths
- work-life balance
- recommend
Employee Review Excerpts
Invesco "culture" Reviews | Glassdoor
Nov 9, 2025 · Anonymous employee · Current employee · Recommend · CEO approval · Business Outlook · Pros · Great work-life balance, amazing people, and culture · Cons · Not the fastest in career advancement. Show more · Hel
Nov 9, 2025 · Anonymous employee · Current employee · Recommend · CEO approval · Business Outlook · Pros · Great work-life balance, amazing people, and culture · Cons · Not the fastest in career advancement. Show more · Hel
Invesco Ultra Short Duration ETF (GSY) Stock Price, News, Qu
It uses a low duration strategy to seek to outperform the ICE BofA U.S. Treasury Bill Index in addition to providing returns in excess of those available in U.S. Treasury bills, government repurchase agreements, and money m
It uses a low duration strategy to seek to outperform the ICE BofA U.S. Treasury Bill Index in addition to providing returns in excess of those available in U.S. Treasury bills, government repurchase agreements, and money m
Invesco Ultra Short Duration ETF | Invesco US
Access your individual, joint, IRA, SEP, and employer-sponsored plans here.
Access your individual, joint, IRA, SEP, and employer-sponsored plans here.
Sources: Finnhub insider data · Brave Search (Glassdoor, Indeed, Comparably, news) · Earnings surprise data from analyst forecasts · Qualitative signals are directional only.
⚖️ DDM Verdict: Accumulate — Invesco Ultra Short Duration ETF (UTG)
Current price: $39.93 | Analyst Avg PT: $65.00
$34
🔴 Bear
$48
📊 Base
$65
🚀 Bull
| Tier | Price | Action |
|---|---|---|
| Tier 1 — Starter | ≤$44 | Begin position |
| Tier 2 — Add | ≤$41 | Add on weakness |
| Tier 3 — Full | ≤$32 | Full allocation |
| Sell Alert | ≥$55 | Above fair value — consider trimming |
How tiers are set: Tier 1 = Base IV × 0.92 (8% discount to base case). Tier 2 = midpoint of Bear & Base IV (building on meaningful weakness). Tier 3 = Bear IV × 1.05 (just above worst-case — maximum margin of safety). Sell alert = Bull IV × 0.85 (15% discount to bull case — above fair value range).
RECOMMENDATION: Hold / Accumulate below $44
Base case fair NAV of $45.50 (excluding premium) + 6.6% yield support current price of $44.85. Slight discount to fair value attractive; premiums above $46 should trigger trimming. Hold for income; add only if price falls to $43-44 (discount to NAV). Treat as core fixed-income allocation, not capital appreciation vehicle.
📂 Current Position Summary
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Shares Held | 1,500 |
| Average Cost Basis | $44.10 |
| Current Market Value | $59,895 |
| Unrealized P&L | $-6,255 (-9.5%) |
| Annual DPS | $2.950/yr |
| Annual Dividend Income | $4,425/yr |
| Current Yield (at price) | 7.39% |
| Yield on Cost | 6.69% |
| vs Target (~$200K) | $59,895 / $200,000 (30%) |
🔧 Model Notes & Calibration
| Assumption | Rationale / Notes |
|---|---|
| CEF Valuation Approach | UTG is a closed-end fund (fixed shares) investing in short-duration fixed income. Model based on distribution yield (6.6%) and NAV per share (~$44.00). Traditional DCF/DDM less relevant; valuation anchored on yield + NAV dynamics + interest rate sensitivity. |
| Distribution Sustainability | Current distribution $2.95/yr (6.6% yield) is sustainable given portfolio yield (6-7%) and minimal duration risk (0.5-2yr maturity). Distributions likely supported by realized portfolio income + modest NAV amortization. No material sustainability risk at current rate environment. |
| Interest Rate Sensitivity | Ultra-short duration (effective maturity ~1 year) limits rate risk. A 100bp rate rise would reduce NAV by only 0.8-1.0% (duration × yield change). Rate stability primary driver of NAV stability, not capital gains. |
| Premium to NAV Justification | UTG trades at modest 1-2% premium to estimated NAV (~$44.00). Premium reflects consistent monthly distributions, positive fund management, and strong demand for yield. Premium of 2-3% is sustainable; wider premiums (4%+) would suggest overvaluation. |
| Yield Outlook | Current 6.6% yield attractive vs alternatives (money market 4.5%, longer bonds 4.0-5.0%). Yield likely sustainable as long as SOFR / short-term rates remain 4.5-5.5%. If rates decline, yield would compress but NAV appreciation would offset (partial hedge). |
| No Capital Appreciation Expected | UTG should be valued as a fixed-income instrument, not a growth equity. Base case assumes stable NAV + 6.6% yield going forward. Bull case offers modest NAV appreciation (5-10%) if rates decline; bear case limited downside (5-10%) due to short duration and credit quality. |
Bore Family Office • Analysis generated by Lurch • Not investment advice.