Bore Family Office
Valuation Report — VICI Properties (VICI) • March 6, 2026
3-Stage DDM (Ke) • Discount Rate: 8.02% • Current Price: $29.67
Prepared by Lurch • Bore Family Office • Data: Finnhub, StockAnalysis.com, S&P Global Market Intelligence
🏢 Business Overview
VICI Properties was formed in 2017 from the bankruptcy of Caesars Entertainment,
making it the largest gaming REIT in the US. VICI owns 93 experiential assets across gaming,
hospitality, entertainment, and golf — totaling 127 million square feet.
Key tenants include Caesars Entertainment, MGM Resorts, Hard Rock, Century Casinos, and Great Wolf Lodge.
VICI went public in 2018 and added the Venetian (Las Vegas) and MGM Grand/Mandalay Bay in subsequent acquisitions.
| Asset Category |
Key Properties |
% of Revenue |
Lease Term |
Escalator |
Coverage |
| Las Vegas Strip |
Caesars Palace, MGM Grand, Mandalay Bay, Venetian |
~45% |
30-35 years |
CPI-linked |
3.5-4.0x |
| Regional Gaming |
Harrah's portfolio, Horseshoe, regional Caesars/MGM |
~40% |
20-30 years |
CPI-linked |
3.0-3.5x |
| Non-Gaming Experiential |
Great Wolf Lodge waterparks, Chelsea Piers, Canyon Ranch |
~15% |
20-25 years |
Fixed 2% |
2.5-3.0x |
Structure: VICI uses a modified triple-net (NNN) lease structure —
tenants pay all operating costs, taxes, and maintenance. VICI's only cost is G&A (~1% of revenue) and
interest expense. This generates extraordinary 91%+ operating margins. Escalators are CPI-linked
(with floors and caps), providing inflation protection rarely seen in real estate.
Key risks: (1) Interest rate sensitivity — as a REIT, VICI's multiple
compresses when rates rise; (2) Tenant health — Caesars carries heavy debt load; (3) Gaming industry
structural headwinds from online gambling; (4) Concentration — top 2 tenants (Caesars/MGM) = ~75% of revenue.
📊 Financial Snapshot
| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|
| Revenue ($M) | $1,510 | $2,601 | $3,612 | $3,849 | $4,006 |
| EBITDA ($M) | $1,437 | $1,613 | $3,341 | $3,544 | $3,651 |
| Operating Income ($M) | $1,434 | $1,610 | $3,337 | $3,540 | $3,648 |
| Net Income ($M) | $1,014 | $1,118 | $2,514 | $2,679 | $2,775 |
| EPS (diluted) | $1.76 | $1.27 | $2.47 | $2.56 | $2.61 |
| Free Cash Flow ($M) | $894 | $1,942 | $2,177 | $2,374 | $2,509 |
| Annual DPS | $1.380 | $1.500 | $1.610 | $1.695 | $1.765 |
| Total Debt ($M) | $12,000 | $14,000 | $16,800 | $17,200 | $17,500 |
| Rev YoY Growth | — | +72.3% | +38.9% | +6.6% | +4.1% |
⚙️ Ke (DDM)
| Input | Value | Notes |
|---|
| Risk-Free Rate (Rf) | 4.30% | 10-yr US Treasury yield |
| Beta (β) | 0.676 | Market beta (Finnhub) |
| Equity Risk Premium (ERP) | 5.5% | Damodaran US ERP |
| Cost of Equity (Ke) | 8.02% | Ke = Rf + β × ERP |
📈 DDM Scenarios
📋 Full 10-Year Projection Tables
Bear Scenario
| Period | Stage | DPS / Dist. | PV of DPS | Cumulative IV |
|---|
| Year 1 | Stage 1 | $1.845 | $1.708 | $1.71 |
| Year 2 | Stage 1 | $1.891 | $1.621 | $3.33 |
| Year 3 | Stage 1 | $1.938 | $1.538 | $4.87 |
| Year 4 | Stage 1 | $1.987 | $1.459 | $6.33 |
| Year 5 | Stage 1 | $2.037 | $1.385 | $7.71 |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $2.067 | $1.301 | $9.01 |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $2.098 | $1.223 | $10.23 |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $2.130 | $1.149 | $11.38 |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $2.162 | $1.079 | $12.46 |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $2.194 | $1.014 | $13.48 |
| Terminal | — | TV=$34.15 | PV(TV)=$15.79 (54% of IV) | |
Base Scenario
| Period | Stage | DPS / Dist. | PV of DPS | Cumulative IV |
|---|
| Year 1 | Stage 1 | $1.872 | $1.733 | $1.73 |
| Year 2 | Stage 1 | $1.947 | $1.669 | $3.40 |
| Year 3 | Stage 1 | $2.025 | $1.606 | $5.01 |
| Year 4 | Stage 1 | $2.106 | $1.547 | $6.55 |
| Year 5 | Stage 1 | $2.190 | $1.489 | $8.04 |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $2.245 | $1.413 | $9.46 |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $2.301 | $1.341 | $10.80 |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $2.358 | $1.272 | $12.07 |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $2.417 | $1.207 | $13.28 |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $2.478 | $1.146 | $14.42 |
| Terminal | — | TV=$46.01 | PV(TV)=$21.27 (60% of IV) | |
Bull Scenario
| Period | Stage | DPS / Dist. | PV of DPS | Cumulative IV |
|---|
| Year 1 | Stage 1 | $1.926 | $1.783 | $1.78 |
| Year 2 | Stage 1 | $2.061 | $1.766 | $3.55 |
| Year 3 | Stage 1 | $2.205 | $1.749 | $5.30 |
| Year 4 | Stage 1 | $2.359 | $1.733 | $7.03 |
| Year 5 | Stage 1 | $2.525 | $1.717 | $8.75 |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $2.638 | $1.661 | $10.41 |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $2.757 | $1.607 | $12.02 |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $2.881 | $1.554 | $13.57 |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $3.011 | $1.504 | $15.07 |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $3.146 | $1.455 | $16.53 |
| Terminal | — | TV=$64.55 | PV(TV)=$29.84 (64% of IV) | |
🔲 Sensitivity Table
| Ke \ gT | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|
| 6.0% | $47 | $51 | $56 | $63 | $73 |
| 6.5% | $42 | $45 | $49 | $54 | $61 |
| 7.0% | $38 | $41 | $44 | $48 | $52 |
| 7.5% | $35 | $37 | $39 | $42 | $46 |
| 8.0% | $32 | $34 | $36 | $38 | $41 |
| 8.5% | $30 | $31 | $33 | $35 | $37 |
| 9.0% | $28 | $29 | $30 | $32 | $33 |
| 9.5% | $26 | $27 | $28 | $29 | $31 |
| 10.0% | $25 | $25 | $26 | $27 | $28 |
Green = >10% above current price. Red = >10% below. Gold = within ±10%.
📉 Long-Term Price Trend Channel
Log-linear trend fitted to full price history. ±1.5σ bands. Green shaded zone = bottom 25% of historical range — historically attractive entry.
🏦 Comparable Valuation
| Company | Ticker | P/AFFO | Div Yield | Tenant Coverage | Lease Remaining | Market Cap |
|---|
| VICI Properties | VICI | 13.5x | 6.07% | 3.5x EBITDA | ~30 years avg | $31.5B |
| Realty Income | O | 13.8x | 5.7% | 2.8x EBITDAR | ~10 years avg | $50B |
| NNN REIT | NNN | 12.5x | 5.6% | 3.2x EBITDA | ~12 years avg | $8B |
| Gaming & Leisure Props | GLPI | 11.8x | 6.5% | 3.1x EBITDA | ~25 years avg | $12B |
| EPR Properties | EPR | 10.5x | 7.5% | 2.5x EBITDAR | ~10 years avg | $3.5B |
| VICI 3-yr Avg | — | 14.5x | 5.5% | 3.4x | — | — |
💰 Dividend / Distribution Analysis
| Metric | Value |
|---|
| Annual DPS | $1.800 |
| Current Yield | 6.07% |
| Consecutive Growth Years | 8 |
| 1-yr DPS CAGR | +4.1% |
| 3-yr DPS CAGR | +5.4% |
| 5-yr DPS CAGR | +5.5% |
| 10-yr DPS CAGR | — |
| Payout Ratio (DPS/EPS) | 69.0% |
| FCF Payout Ratio | 76.0% |
| Sustainability Verdict | ✅ Safe |
VICI's dividend sustainability is excellent. Triple-net leases provide contractual, inflation-indexed rent escalators (typically CPI or fixed 1-2% annual steps). VICI's rent coverage ratio (tenant EBITDA / rent) averaged 3.5x across its portfolio in 2025 — extremely conservative. DPS payout of 76% of FCF is conservative for a REIT. All 50+ leases are long-term (typically 25-35 year initial terms + multiple extensions). No meaningful lease expiration risk before 2040. Verdict: Safe — one of the most durable dividend streams in the REIT sector. The risk is not the dividend; it's the interest rate sensitivity of REIT multiples.
🔮 Analyst Forecast Section
(a) EPS Consensus
| Year | Low / Actual | Avg | High | # Analysts | Type |
|---|
| 2021 | $1.76 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2022 | $1.27 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2023 | $2.47 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2024 | $2.56 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2025 | $2.61 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2026 | $2.39 | $2.85 | $3.01 | 12 | Estimate |
| 2027 | $2.81 | $2.97 | $3.13 | 8 | Estimate |
(b) Revenue Consensus
| Year | Low / Actual | Avg | High | # Analysts | Type |
|---|
| 2021 | $1.5B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2022 | $2.6B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2023 | $3.6B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2024 | $3.8B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2025 | $4.0B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2026 | $3.9B | $4.2B | $4.5B | 12 | Estimate |
| 2027 | $3.7B | $4.3B | $4.7B | 8 | Estimate |
(c) Individual Analyst Price Targets
Consensus: Avg $34.00 | Range $30–$38
| Analyst | Firm | Rating | PT | Upside |
|---|
| RJ Milligan | Baird | Buy | $34 | +14.6% |
| Richard Hightower | Barclays | Buy | $33 | +11.2% |
| Steve Sakwa | Evercore ISI Group | Hold | $32 | +7.9% |
| Nicholas Yulico | Scotiabank | Hold | $30 | +1.1% |
| Haendel St. Juste | Mizuho | Buy | $30 | +1.1% |
(d) Earnings Surprise History
| Quarter | EPS Act vs Est | EPS Beat/Miss | Rev Act vs Est | Rev Beat/Miss | Guidance |
|---|
| Q4 2025 | $0.68 vs $0.66 | +$0.02 ✅ | $1.0B vs $1.0B | +$0.0B ✅ | Maintained |
| Q3 2025 | $0.66 vs $0.64 | +$0.02 ✅ | $1.0B vs $1.0B | +$0.0B ✅ | Maintained |
| Q2 2025 | $0.65 vs $0.63 | +$0.02 ✅ | $1.0B vs $1.0B | +$0.0B ✅ | Raised |
| Q1 2025 | $0.62 vs $0.61 | +$0.01 ✅ | $1.0B vs $1.0B | +$0.0B ✅ | Maintained |
(e) Confidence Band Commentary
VICI is a consistent EPS beater — beat all 4 quarters in 2025, all by small amounts. This is typical of triple-net REITs: highly predictable income streams with low variance. The wide PT range relative to fundamentals ($30-$38) reflects rate sensitivity: a 50bps rise in 10yr Treasury = ~$2-3 in IV headwind; a 50bps cut = $2-3 tailwind. Macro drives the stock more than fundamentals. Analyst community is cautiously bullish — Buy consensus but modest targets. Downgrades in Dec 2025 (Scotiabank, Evercore, Mizuho) reflect rate/macro concerns, not fundamentals.
💡 Investment Thesis
Bear case: VICI is a rate play, not a real estate story.
The 10-year Treasury at 4.3% is compressing REIT multiples across the board.
If rates stay "higher for longer" (5%+ 10yr), VICI could re-rate to 12x AFFO = $25-26.
Caesars Entertainment (VICI's largest tenant at ~37% of revenue) carries $12B+ of net debt and
could face lease renegotiation pressure if gaming revenues disappoint.
Geographic concentration on the Las Vegas Strip creates event risk (regional recession,
convention cancellations). Bear target: $24-26.
Bull case: VICI is the only way to own Las Vegas Strip real estate as a
public equity investor. These assets cannot be replicated — Caesars Palace and MGM Grand have
intrinsic values far exceeding their carrying value. VICI's leases are literally perpetual (30+ year
initial terms with renewal options extending to 100 years). The 6.1% yield + 4-5% DPS growth =
10-11% total return in a rate-normalized environment. If Fed cuts 150bps by 2027, REIT multiples
re-rate 20-30% and VICI hits $38-42. Bull target: $42-50.
Our view — Accumulate: At $29.67, VICI trades at a 17% discount to our
DDM base IV ($35.69) and a 13% discount to analyst consensus PT ($34).
The 6.07% dividend yield is well-covered (3.5x tenant EBITDA coverage).
We are getting paid to wait for rate normalization. The business is rock-solid; the rate headwind is temporary.
Joseph holds 7,455 shares at $28.91 avg cost — slightly above water.
This is an add opportunity — position is below target size (~$221K market value vs ~$200K target,
but with appreciation potential to $254K at base IV).
⚖️ DDM Verdict: Accumulate — VICI Properties (VICI)
Current price: $29.67 | Analyst Avg PT: $34.00
| Tier | Price | Action |
|---|
| Tier 1 — Starter | ≤$30 | Begin position |
| Tier 2 — Add | ≤$28 | Add on weakness |
| Tier 3 — Full | ≤$26 | Full allocation |
| Sell Alert | ≥$40 | Above fair value — consider trimming |
Accumulate — VICI at $29.67 is 17% below our DDM base IV ($35.69) and 13% below analyst consensus PT ($34.00). The 6.07% dividend yield is covered 3.5x by tenant EBITDA. Rate headwinds are the only real risk — every 50bps drop in the 10yr Treasury adds ~$2 to REIT fair values. Joseph holds 7,455 shares at $28.91 avg cost. Consider adding 500-1,000 shares here ($30K-$30K incremental) to bring total position to ~$250K (above target, but VICI merits overweight given margin of safety). Becomes a Sell above $40 (approaching bull IV). This is the strongest risk/reward in tonight's batch.
📂 Current Position Summary
| Metric | Value |
|---|
| Shares Held | 7,455.68 |
| Average Cost Basis | $28.91 |
| Current Market Value | $221,210 |
| Unrealized P&L | $+5,666 (+2.6%) |
| Annual Dividend Income | $13,420/yr |
| Yield on Cost | 6.23% |
| vs Target Position (~$200K) | $221,210 vs $200,000 (111% of target) |
Bore Family Office • Analysis generated by Lurch • Not investment advice.
