AMZN
AMZN
Hold 2026-04-13
Model
DCF
Price at Report
$238.31
Base IV
$150.77
Bear IV
$85.86
Bull IV
$333.03
Entry Zone: 82-139 · Sell Above: 283
Bore Family Office
Valuation Report — Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) • April 13, 2026
Unlevered DCF (FCFF @ WACC) • Discount Rate: 8.50% • Current Price: $238.31
Prepared by Lurch • Bore Family Office • Data: Finnhub, StockAnalysis.com, S&P Global Market Intelligence
📈 DCF Scenarios
$86
🔴 Bear
$151
📊 Base
$333
🚀 Bull
$238.31
Current Price
$220
Analyst Avg PT
| Scenario | Stage 1 (Yrs 1–5) | Stage 2 (Yrs 6–10) | Terminal g | WACC | Intrinsic Value | vs Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🔴 Bear | 8.0% | 6.0% | 3.0% | 9.50% | $86 | ▼64.0% |
| 📊 Base | 12.0% | 8.0% | 4.0% | 8.50% | $151 | ▼36.7% |
| 🚀 Bull | 16.0% | 10.0% | 5.0% | 7.50% | $333 | ▲39.7% |
📋 Full 10-Year Projection Tables
Bear Scenario
Stage 1: 8.0% | Stage 2: 6.0% | Terminal: 3.0%
| Period | Stage | FCFF | PV of FCFF | Cumulative EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | Stage 1 | $43.20B | $39.45B | $39.45B |
| Year 2 | Stage 1 | $46.66B | $38.91B | $78.36B |
| Year 3 | Stage 1 | $50.39B | $38.38B | $116.74B |
| Year 4 | Stage 1 | $54.42B | $37.85B | $154.60B |
| Year 5 | Stage 1 | $58.77B | $37.33B | $191.93B |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $62.30B | $36.14B | $228.07B |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $66.04B | $34.99B | $263.06B |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $70.00B | $33.87B | $296.92B |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $74.20B | $32.78B | $329.71B |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $78.65B | $31.74B | $361.45B |
| Terminal | — | TV=$1246.3B | PV(TV)=$502.9B (58% of EV) | EV=$864.4B |
| Intrinsic Value | — | — | EV $864.4B − Net Debt → Equity / Shares | $86 |
How the price per share is derived: Each year's projected free cash flow is discounted back at WACC (9.50%) to get its present value. After Year 10, FCF grows at the terminal rate (3.0%) in perpetuity — the Gordon Growth formula gives a terminal value of FCF11 / (WACC − gT) = $1246.3B. That terminal value is discounted back 10 years to today's dollars (PV of TV = $502.9B). Enterprise Value = PV of FCFs ($361.4B) + PV of TV ($502.9B) = $864.4B. Subtracting net debt gives equity value of $854.4B, divided by shares outstanding = $86 per share.
Base Scenario
Stage 1: 12.0% | Stage 2: 8.0% | Terminal: 4.0%
| Period | Stage | FCFF | PV of FCFF | Cumulative EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | Stage 1 | $44.80B | $41.29B | $41.29B |
| Year 2 | Stage 1 | $50.18B | $42.62B | $83.91B |
| Year 3 | Stage 1 | $56.20B | $44.00B | $127.91B |
| Year 4 | Stage 1 | $62.94B | $45.42B | $173.33B |
| Year 5 | Stage 1 | $70.49B | $46.88B | $220.21B |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $76.13B | $46.67B | $266.87B |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $82.22B | $46.45B | $313.32B |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $88.80B | $46.24B | $359.56B |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $95.91B | $46.02B | $405.58B |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $103.58B | $45.81B | $451.39B |
| Terminal | — | TV=$2393.8B | PV(TV)=$1058.7B (70% of EV) | EV=$1510.1B |
| Intrinsic Value | — | — | EV $1510.1B − Net Debt → Equity / Shares | $151 |
How the price per share is derived: Each year's projected free cash flow is discounted back at WACC (8.50%) to get its present value. After Year 10, FCF grows at the terminal rate (4.0%) in perpetuity — the Gordon Growth formula gives a terminal value of FCF11 / (WACC − gT) = $2393.8B. That terminal value is discounted back 10 years to today's dollars (PV of TV = $1058.7B). Enterprise Value = PV of FCFs ($451.4B) + PV of TV ($1058.7B) = $1510.1B. Subtracting net debt gives equity value of $1500.1B, divided by shares outstanding = $151 per share.
Bull Scenario
Stage 1: 16.0% | Stage 2: 10.0% | Terminal: 5.0%
| Period | Stage | FCFF | PV of FCFF | Cumulative EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | Stage 1 | $46.40B | $43.16B | $43.16B |
| Year 2 | Stage 1 | $53.82B | $46.58B | $89.74B |
| Year 3 | Stage 1 | $62.44B | $50.26B | $140.00B |
| Year 4 | Stage 1 | $72.43B | $54.23B | $194.23B |
| Year 5 | Stage 1 | $84.01B | $58.52B | $252.75B |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $92.42B | $59.88B | $312.63B |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $101.66B | $61.27B | $373.90B |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $111.82B | $62.70B | $436.60B |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $123.00B | $64.16B | $500.76B |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $135.30B | $65.65B | $566.41B |
| Terminal | — | TV=$5682.8B | PV(TV)=$2757.3B (83% of EV) | EV=$3323.7B |
| Intrinsic Value | — | — | EV $3323.7B − Net Debt → Equity / Shares | $333 |
How the price per share is derived: Each year's projected free cash flow is discounted back at WACC (7.50%) to get its present value. After Year 10, FCF grows at the terminal rate (5.0%) in perpetuity — the Gordon Growth formula gives a terminal value of FCF11 / (WACC − gT) = $5682.8B. That terminal value is discounted back 10 years to today's dollars (PV of TV = $2757.3B). Enterprise Value = PV of FCFs ($566.4B) + PV of TV ($2757.3B) = $3323.7B. Subtracting net debt gives equity value of $3313.7B, divided by shares outstanding = $333 per share.
🔲 Sensitivity Table
| WACC \ gT | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.5% | $162 | $175 | $192 | $213 | $241 |
| 7.0% | $146 | $156 | $169 | $184 | $205 |
| 7.5% | $132 | $140 | $150 | $162 | $177 |
| 8.0% | $121 | $128 | $135 | $145 | $156 |
| 8.5% | $111 | $117 | $123 | $131 | $140 |
| 9.0% | $103 | $107 | $113 | $119 | $126 |
| 9.5% | $95 | $99 | $104 | $109 | $115 |
| 10.0% | $89 | $92 | $96 | $100 | $105 |
| 10.5% | $83 | $86 | $89 | $93 | $97 |
Green = >10% above current price. Red = >10% below. Gold = within ±10%.
📉 Long-Term Price Trend Channel
Log-linear trend fitted to full price history. ±1.5σ bands. Green shaded zone = bottom 25% of historical range — historically attractive entry.
👔 Management Quality & Culture
CEO: Amazon Web · Tenure: Since 1997 (~29 yrs) · ★ Founder
⚠️ Key-Person Risk: HIGH
Founder-led company — strategy and culture deeply tied to a single individual. Succession planning is a material risk.
Net Insider Buys (12m)
-26,976,091 shares
Incentive Alignment
⚠️ Moderate
Compensation: Equity-based compensation present
CEO Background & Track Record
Jeff Bezos | Biography, Wedding, Amazon.com, & Facts | Brita
(born January 12, 1964, Albuquerque, New Mexico, U.S.) Jeff Bezos is an American entrepreneur who played a key role in the growth of e-commerce as the founder and chief executive officer of Amazon.com, Inc., an online merch
(born January 12, 1964, Albuquerque, New Mexico, U.S.) Jeff Bezos is an American entrepreneur who played a key role in the growth of e-commerce as the founder and chief executive officer of Amazon.com, Inc., an online merch
Andy Jassy - Wikipedia
Andrew R. Jassy (born January 13, 1968) is an American business executive who is the president and chief executive officer of Amazon since July 2021, succeeding founder Jeff Bezos, who remains executive chairman. Jassy was SVP and CEO of Am
Andrew R. Jassy (born January 13, 1968) is an American business executive who is the president and chief executive officer of Amazon since July 2021, succeeding founder Jeff Bezos, who remains executive chairman. Jassy was SVP and CEO of Am
Amazon.com, Inc. - Officers and directors - Person Details
Andy Jassy is President and CEO of Amazon.com and also serves on the Board of Directors. He founded and led Amazon Web Services (AWS) from its inception and served as its CEO from April 2016 until July 2021. He joined Amazo
Andy Jassy is President and CEO of Amazon.com and also serves on the Board of Directors. He founded and led Amazon Web Services (AWS) from its inception and served as its CEO from April 2016 until July 2021. He joined Amazo
Capital Allocation & Strategy
043024AMZN 04 - 30 - 2024 Amazon.com, Inc. Q1 2024 Earnings
CapEx plus equipment finance leases. In 2023, overall capital investments were $48.4 billion.
CapEx plus equipment finance leases. In 2023, overall capital investments were $48.4 billion.
Amazon’s $2B Industrial Spending Spree Reflects Strategic Ex
The company spent $2B on acquisitions, signaling a renewed focus on expanding its logistics and data center capabilities, according to The Real Deal. This surge comes after cautious corrections in 2022 when Amazon closed or
The company spent $2B on acquisitions, signaling a renewed focus on expanding its logistics and data center capabilities, according to The Real Deal. This surge comes after cautious corrections in 2022 when Amazon closed or
Employee Ratings
Overall Rating
3.1/5 ★★★☆☆
Reviews
246,581
Culture Signal
Mixed
✅ Strengths
- recommend
⚠️ Concerns
- micromanag
Employee Review Excerpts
Amazon Corporate Reviews | Glassdoor
Apr 29, 2025 · Corporate trainer · Current employee, more than 3 years · Hyderābād · Recommend · CEO approval · Business Outlook · Pros · I love the work culture here except you have a manager who is a micromanager or has a problem with you
Apr 29, 2025 · Corporate trainer · Current employee, more than 3 years · Hyderābād · Recommend · CEO approval · Business Outlook · Pros · I love the work culture here except you have a manager who is a micromanager or has a problem with you
Amazon Reviews (207,535): Pros & Cons of Working At Amazon |
How satisfied are employees working at Amazon?60% of Amazon employees would recommend working there to a friend based on Glassdoor reviews. Employees also rated Amazon 3.1 out of 5 for work life balance, 3.3 for culture and values
How satisfied are employees working at Amazon?60% of Amazon employees would recommend working there to a friend based on Glassdoor reviews. Employees also rated Amazon 3.1 out of 5 for work life balance, 3.3 for culture and values
Amazon "work culture" Reviews | Glassdoor
Is Amazon a good company to work for?Amazon has an overall rating of 3.6 out of 5, based on over 246,581 reviews left anonymously by employees. This rating has decreased by 1% over the last 12 months. 62% of employees would
Is Amazon a good company to work for?Amazon has an overall rating of 3.6 out of 5, based on over 246,581 reviews left anonymously by employees. This rating has decreased by 1% over the last 12 months. 62% of employees would
Sources: Finnhub insider data · Brave Search (Glassdoor, Indeed, Comparably, news) · Earnings surprise data from analyst forecasts · Qualitative signals are directional only.
⚖️ DCF Verdict: Hold — Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)
Current price: $238.31 | Analyst Avg PT: $220.00
$86
🔴 Bear
$151
📊 Base
$333
🚀 Bull
| Tier | Price | Action |
|---|---|---|
| Tier 1 — Starter | ≤$139 | Begin position |
| Tier 2 — Add | ≤$118 | Add on weakness |
| Tier 3 — Full | ≤$82 | Full allocation |
| Sell Alert | ≥$283 | Above fair value — consider trimming |
How tiers are set: Tier 1 = Base IV × 0.92 (8% discount to base case). Tier 2 = midpoint of Bear & Base IV (building on meaningful weakness). Tier 3 = Bear IV × 1.05 (just above worst-case — maximum margin of safety). Sell alert = Bull IV × 0.85 (15% discount to bull case — above fair value range).
Verdict: Hold. At $238.31, the shares sit in a reasonable range relative to the base-case value of $151. Add only on weakness toward the entry tiers below.
Bore Family Office • Analysis generated by Lurch • Not investment advice.