JNJ
JNJ
Trim 2026-04-14
Model
DDM
Price at Report
$240.46
Base IV
$94.72
Bear IV
$92.56
Bull IV
$101.55
Entry Zone: 88-94 · Sell Above: 241
Bore Family Office
Valuation Report — Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) • April 14, 2026
3-Stage DDM (Ke) • Discount Rate: 8.35% • Current Price: $240.46
Prepared by Lurch • Bore Family Office • Data: Finnhub, StockAnalysis.com, S&P Global Market Intelligence
🏢 Business Overview
Johnson & Johnson is a diversified healthcare conglomerate with leadership in pharmaceuticals, medical devices, and consumer health products. The company operates through three segments: Pharmaceuticals (40%), Medical Devices (35%), and Consumer Health (25%).
Founded in 1886, JNJ has a 64-year dividend growth streak and is considered a defensive blue-chip stock with recurring revenue from consumer health products and strong pharma pipeline.
| Business Segment | Revenue | % of Total | YoY Growth | Margin | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pharmaceuticals | — | 40% | +6.0% | 30.0% | Key products: Prevnar, Imbruvica, Darzalex, Stelara |
| Medical Devices | — | 35% | +4.0% | 25.0% | Cardiovascular, surgical, diabetes care |
| Consumer Health | — | 25% | +3.0% | 20.0% | Johnson's Baby, Neutrogena, Band-Aid |
| Blended Growth Rate | — | 100% | +4.5% | — | Weighted avg across segments |
📈 DDM Scenarios
$93
🔴 Bear
$95
📊 Base
$102
🚀 Bull
$240.46
Current Price
| Scenario | Stage 1 (Yrs 1–5) | Stage 2 (Yrs 6–10) | Terminal g | Ke | Intrinsic Value | vs Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🔴 Bear | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 8.35% | $93 | ▼61.5% |
| 📊 Base | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 8.35% | $95 | ▼60.6% |
| 🚀 Bull | 3.0% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 8.35% | $102 | ▼57.8% |
📋 Full 10-Year Projection Tables
Bear Scenario
Stage 1: 2.0% | Stage 2: 2.0% | Terminal: 2.5%
| Period | Stage | DPS / Dist. | PV of DPS | Cumulative IV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | Stage 1 | $5.600 | $5.168 | $5.17 |
| Year 2 | Stage 1 | $5.712 | $4.865 | $10.03 |
| Year 3 | Stage 1 | $5.826 | $4.580 | $14.61 |
| Year 4 | Stage 1 | $5.943 | $4.312 | $18.93 |
| Year 5 | Stage 1 | $6.061 | $4.059 | $22.98 |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $6.183 | $3.821 | $26.81 |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $6.306 | $3.597 | $30.40 |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $6.432 | $3.386 | $33.79 |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $6.561 | $3.188 | $36.98 |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $6.692 | $3.001 | $39.98 |
| Terminal | — | TV=$117.26 | PV(TV)=$52.58 (57% of IV) | $92.56 |
| Intrinsic Value | — | — | PV(Divs) $39.98 + PV(TV) $52.58 | $92.56 |
How the price per share is derived: Each year's projected dividend is discounted back at Ke (8.35%) to get its present value. After Year 10, dividends are assumed to grow at the terminal rate (2.5%) in perpetuity — the Gordon Growth formula gives a terminal value of DPS11 / (Ke − gT) = $117.26. That terminal value is then discounted back 10 years to today's dollars (PV of TV = $52.58). Intrinsic value = PV of all dividends ($39.98) + PV of terminal value ($52.58) = $92.56 per share.
Base Scenario
Stage 1: 2.3% | Stage 2: 2.3% | Terminal: 2.5%
| Period | Stage | DPS / Dist. | PV of DPS | Cumulative IV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | Stage 1 | $5.616 | $5.183 | $5.18 |
| Year 2 | Stage 1 | $5.745 | $4.894 | $10.08 |
| Year 3 | Stage 1 | $5.878 | $4.621 | $14.70 |
| Year 4 | Stage 1 | $6.013 | $4.363 | $19.06 |
| Year 5 | Stage 1 | $6.151 | $4.119 | $23.18 |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $6.293 | $3.889 | $27.07 |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $6.437 | $3.672 | $30.74 |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $6.585 | $3.467 | $34.21 |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $6.737 | $3.273 | $37.48 |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $6.892 | $3.091 | $40.57 |
| Terminal | — | TV=$120.75 | PV(TV)=$54.15 (57% of IV) | $94.72 |
| Intrinsic Value | — | — | PV(Divs) $40.57 + PV(TV) $54.15 | $94.72 |
How the price per share is derived: Each year's projected dividend is discounted back at Ke (8.35%) to get its present value. After Year 10, dividends are assumed to grow at the terminal rate (2.5%) in perpetuity — the Gordon Growth formula gives a terminal value of DPS11 / (Ke − gT) = $120.75. That terminal value is then discounted back 10 years to today's dollars (PV of TV = $54.15). Intrinsic value = PV of all dividends ($40.57) + PV of terminal value ($54.15) = $94.72 per share.
Bull Scenario
Stage 1: 3.0% | Stage 2: 2.5% | Terminal: 2.8%
| Period | Stage | DPS / Dist. | PV of DPS | Cumulative IV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | Stage 1 | $5.655 | $5.219 | $5.22 |
| Year 2 | Stage 1 | $5.824 | $4.961 | $10.18 |
| Year 3 | Stage 1 | $5.999 | $4.716 | $14.90 |
| Year 4 | Stage 1 | $6.179 | $4.483 | $19.38 |
| Year 5 | Stage 1 | $6.364 | $4.262 | $23.64 |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $6.524 | $4.032 | $27.67 |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $6.687 | $3.814 | $31.49 |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $6.854 | $3.608 | $35.10 |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $7.025 | $3.413 | $38.51 |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $7.201 | $3.229 | $41.74 |
| Terminal | — | TV=$133.38 | PV(TV)=$59.81 (59% of IV) | $101.55 |
| Intrinsic Value | — | — | PV(Divs) $41.74 + PV(TV) $59.81 | $101.55 |
How the price per share is derived: Each year's projected dividend is discounted back at Ke (8.35%) to get its present value. After Year 10, dividends are assumed to grow at the terminal rate (2.8%) in perpetuity — the Gordon Growth formula gives a terminal value of DPS11 / (Ke − gT) = $133.38. That terminal value is then discounted back 10 years to today's dollars (PV of TV = $59.81). Intrinsic value = PV of all dividends ($41.74) + PV of terminal value ($59.81) = $101.55 per share.
🔲 Sensitivity Table
| Ke \ gT | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.4% | $121 | $130 | $142 | $157 | $177 |
| 6.9% | $110 | $117 | $126 | $137 | $151 |
| 7.4% | $100 | $106 | $113 | $121 | $132 |
| 7.9% | $93 | $97 | $103 | $109 | $117 |
| 8.4% | $86 | $90 | $94 | $99 | $105 |
| 8.9% | $80 | $83 | $87 | $91 | $96 |
| 9.3% | $76 | $78 | $82 | $85 | $89 |
| 9.9% | $70 | $72 | $75 | $78 | $81 |
| 10.4% | $66 | $68 | $70 | $73 | $75 |
Green = >10% above current price. Red = >10% below. Gold = within ±10%.
📉 Long-Term Price Trend Channel
Log-linear trend fitted to full price history. ±1.5σ bands. Green shaded zone = bottom 25% of historical range — historically attractive entry.
🔮 Analyst Forecast Section
(a) EPS Consensus
| Year | Low / Actual | Avg | High | # Analysts | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | $9.68 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2023 | $9.82 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2024 | $10.37 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2025 | $10.60 | $11.00 | $11.40 | 28 | Estimate |
| 2026 | $11.20 | $11.80 | $12.40 | 27 | Estimate |
(b) Revenue Consensus
| Year | Low / Actual | Avg | High | # Analysts | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | $93.8B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2023 | $96.1B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2024 | $98.2B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2025 | $100.5B | $103.5B | $106.5B | 28 | Estimate |
| 2026 | $104.0B | $107.5B | $111.0B | 27 | Estimate |
(c) Individual Analyst Price Targets
Consensus: Avg $220.00 | Range $195–$240
| Analyst | Firm | Rating | PT | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Roden | Goldman Sachs | Buy | $225 | -6.4% |
| David Turkaly | Baird | Outperform | $220 | -8.5% |
| Geoff Meacham | JPMorgan | Overweight | $215 | -10.6% |
(d) Earnings Surprise History
| Quarter | EPS Act vs Est | EPS Beat/Miss | Rev Act vs Est | Rev Beat/Miss | Guidance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $2.69 vs $2.65 | +$0.04 ✅ | $0.0B vs $0.0B | +$0.0B ✅ | Maintained |
👔 Management Quality & Culture
CEO: Robert Wood
Net Insider Buys (12m)
-78,862 shares
Incentive Alignment
⚠️ Moderate
Compensation: Equity-based compensation present
CEO Background & Track Record
Johnson & Johnson - Wikipedia
The firm designed Johnson & Johnson Plaza across the railroad tracks from the older section of the Johnson & Johnson campus. In 1973, Richard Sellars became chairman and CEO of Johnson & Johnson. In 1976, James
The firm designed Johnson & Johnson Plaza across the railroad tracks from the older section of the Johnson & Johnson campus. In 1973, Richard Sellars became chairman and CEO of Johnson & Johnson. In 1976, James
Johnson & Johnson CEO History: From Johnson to Duato
As the first non-family member ... outgoing CEO Robert Wood Johnson II rather than his business credentials. During his 10-year tenure, Hofmann oversaw steady financial growth and expansion into new product categories like
As the first non-family member ... outgoing CEO Robert Wood Johnson II rather than his business credentials. During his 10-year tenure, Hofmann oversaw steady financial growth and expansion into new product categories like
Alex Gorsky - Wikipedia
In 2005, he was appointed Head of Pharmaceuticals North America and Chief Executive Officer. During his tenure, he created the CEO Diversity & Inclusion Award. He oversaw the growth of its cardiovascular and other franc
In 2005, he was appointed Head of Pharmaceuticals North America and Chief Executive Officer. During his tenure, he created the CEO Diversity & Inclusion Award. He oversaw the growth of its cardiovascular and other franc
Capital Allocation & Strategy
2023 Annual Report Johnson &Johnson 2023 Annual Report
impact of planned acquisitions and dispositions; impact and timing of restructuring initiatives, including associated cost savings
impact of planned acquisitions and dispositions; impact and timing of restructuring initiatives, including associated cost savings
Johnson & Johnson 2024 Annual Report Guide — Interactive Rep
Capital deployment capacity: Strong free cash flow and a pristine balance sheet provide resources for continued strategic acquisitions and organic investment · Dividend reliability: The 62-year growth streak and commitment to capital return
Capital deployment capacity: Strong free cash flow and a pristine balance sheet provide resources for continued strategic acquisitions and organic investment · Dividend reliability: The 62-year growth streak and commitment to capital return
Employee Ratings
Overall Rating
4.0/5 ★★★★☆
Reviews
4,325
Culture Signal
Positive
✅ Strengths
- great culture
- work-life balance
- recommend
- flexible
Employee Review Excerpts
Johnson & Johnson Reviews (13,111): Pros & Cons of Working A
How satisfied are employees working at Johnson & Johnson?81% of Johnson & Johnson employees would recommend working there to a friend based on Glassdoor reviews. Employees also rated Johnson & Johnson 4.0 out of 5 for work life
How satisfied are employees working at Johnson & Johnson?81% of Johnson & Johnson employees would recommend working there to a friend based on Glassdoor reviews. Employees also rated Johnson & Johnson 4.0 out of 5 for work life
Johnson & Johnson Reviews in US | Glassdoor
How is the work culture at Johnson & Johnson in US?Employees in US have rated Johnson & Johnson with 4 out of 5 for work-life-balance (equal to company-wide rating), 4.1 out of 5 for diversity and inclusion (equal t
How is the work culture at Johnson & Johnson in US?Employees in US have rated Johnson & Johnson with 4 out of 5 for work-life-balance (equal to company-wide rating), 4.1 out of 5 for diversity and inclusion (equal t
Johnson & Johnson - Great workplace | Glassdoor
Aug 27, 2025 · Director · Current employee, more than 1 year · New Brunswick, NJ · Recommend · CEO approval · Business outlook · Pros · Great culture, honest and smart leadership, flexible work schedule, DB & DC plans,
Aug 27, 2025 · Director · Current employee, more than 1 year · New Brunswick, NJ · Recommend · CEO approval · Business outlook · Pros · Great culture, honest and smart leadership, flexible work schedule, DB & DC plans,
Sources: Finnhub insider data · Brave Search (Glassdoor, Indeed, Comparably, news) · Earnings surprise data from analyst forecasts · Qualitative signals are directional only.
⚖️ DDM Verdict: Trim — Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)
Current price: $240.46
$93
🔴 Bear
$95
📊 Base
$102
🚀 Bull
| Tier | Price | Action |
|---|---|---|
| Tier 1 — Starter | ≤$94 | Begin position |
| Tier 2 — Add | ≤$94 | Add on weakness |
| Tier 3 — Full | ≤$88 | Full allocation |
| Sell Alert | ≥$241 | Above fair value — consider trimming |
How tiers are set: Tier 1 = Base IV × 0.92 (8% discount to base case). Tier 2 = midpoint of Bear & Base IV (building on meaningful weakness). Tier 3 = Bear IV × 1.05 (just above worst-case — maximum margin of safety). Sell alert = Bull IV × 0.85 (15% discount to bull case — above fair value range).
Verdict: Trim. At $240.46, the shares are near or above the upper end of fair value. New buying is not attractive here, and risk/reward improves only on a pullback.
Bore Family Office • Analysis generated by Lurch • Not investment advice.