EPD
EPD
Hold 2026-03-05
Model
DDM
Price at Report
$37.29
Base IV
$41.00
Bear IV
$35.82
Bull IV
$48.78
Entry Zone: 33-36 · Sell Above: 43
Bore Family Office
Valuation Report — Enterprise Products Partners L.P. (EPD) • March 5, 2026
3-Stage DDM (Ke) • Discount Rate: 7.80% • Current Price: $37.29
Prepared by Lurch • Bore Family Office • Data: Finnhub, StockAnalysis.com, S&P Global Market Intelligence
🏢 Business Overview
Enterprise Products Partners — largest US MLP, 50k miles of pipeline, 26-year distribution streak.
📊 Financial Snapshot
| Metric | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | $32,789 | $27,199 | $40,806 | $58,186 | $49,715 | $56,219 | $52,596 |
| EBITDA ($M) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Operating Income ($M) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Net Income ($M) | $4,591 | $3,774 | $4,634 | $5,487 | $5,529 | $5,897 | $5,810 |
| EPS (diluted) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow ($M) | $1,988 | $2,603 | $6,289 | $6,075 | $4,303 | $3,571 | — |
| Annual DPS | $1.775 | $1.740 | $1.800 | $1.930 | $2.010 | $2.100 | $2.175 |
| Total Debt ($M) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rev YoY Growth | — | -17.0% | +50.0% | +42.6% | -14.6% | +13.1% | -6.4% |
📈 DDM Scenarios
$36
🔴 Bear
$41
📊 Base
$49
🚀 Bull
$37.29
Current Price
$38
Analyst Avg PT
📋 Full 10-Year Projection Tables
Bear Scenario
| Period | Stage | DPS / Dist. | PV of DPS | Cumulative IV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | Stage 1 | $2.218 | $2.058 | $2.06 |
| Year 2 | Stage 1 | $2.263 | $1.947 | $4.01 |
| Year 3 | Stage 1 | $2.308 | $1.842 | $5.85 |
| Year 4 | Stage 1 | $2.354 | $1.743 | $7.59 |
| Year 5 | Stage 1 | $2.401 | $1.650 | $9.24 |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $2.437 | $1.553 | $10.79 |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $2.474 | $1.462 | $12.26 |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $2.511 | $1.377 | $13.63 |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $2.549 | $1.296 | $14.93 |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $2.587 | $1.221 | $16.15 |
| Terminal | — | TV=$41.68 | PV(TV)=$19.67 (55% of IV) |
Base Scenario
| Period | Stage | DPS / Dist. | PV of DPS | Cumulative IV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | Stage 1 | $2.245 | $2.082 | $2.08 |
| Year 2 | Stage 1 | $2.316 | $1.993 | $4.08 |
| Year 3 | Stage 1 | $2.391 | $1.908 | $5.98 |
| Year 4 | Stage 1 | $2.467 | $1.827 | $7.81 |
| Year 5 | Stage 1 | $2.546 | $1.749 | $9.56 |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $2.610 | $1.663 | $11.22 |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $2.675 | $1.581 | $12.80 |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $2.742 | $1.503 | $14.31 |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $2.810 | $1.430 | $15.74 |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $2.881 | $1.359 | $17.10 |
| Terminal | — | TV=$50.66 | PV(TV)=$23.90 (58% of IV) |
Bull Scenario
| Period | Stage | DPS / Dist. | PV of DPS | Cumulative IV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | Stage 1 | $2.279 | $2.114 | $2.11 |
| Year 2 | Stage 1 | $2.389 | $2.056 | $4.17 |
| Year 3 | Stage 1 | $2.503 | $1.998 | $6.17 |
| Year 4 | Stage 1 | $2.624 | $1.943 | $8.11 |
| Year 5 | Stage 1 | $2.750 | $1.889 | $10.00 |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $2.846 | $1.813 | $11.81 |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $2.945 | $1.741 | $13.55 |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $3.049 | $1.672 | $15.23 |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $3.155 | $1.605 | $16.83 |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $3.266 | $1.541 | $18.37 |
| Terminal | — | TV=$64.43 | PV(TV)=$30.40 (62% of IV) |
🔲 Sensitivity Table
| Ke \ gT | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.8% | $58 | $63 | $70 | $79 | $93 |
| 6.3% | $51 | $55 | $61 | $67 | $76 |
| 6.8% | $47 | $50 | $54 | $58 | $65 |
| 7.3% | $42 | $45 | $48 | $52 | $56 |
| 7.8% | $39 | $41 | $43 | $46 | $50 |
| 8.3% | $36 | $38 | $40 | $42 | $45 |
| 8.8% | $34 | $35 | $36 | $38 | $41 |
| 9.3% | $31 | $32 | $34 | $35 | $37 |
| 9.8% | $29 | $30 | $31 | $33 | $34 |
Green = >10% above current price. Red = >10% below. Gold = within ±10%.
📉 Long-Term Price Trend Channel
Log-linear trend fitted to full price history. ±1.5σ bands. Green shaded zone = bottom 25% of historical range — historically attractive entry.
🏦 Comparable Valuation
| Company | Yield |
|---|---|
| EPD | 5.8% |
| ET | 7.3% |
💰 Dividend / Distribution Analysis
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Annual DPS | $2.175 |
| Current Yield | 5.77% |
| Consecutive Growth Years | 26 |
| 1-yr DPS CAGR | +3.6% |
| 3-yr DPS CAGR | +3.8% |
| 5-yr DPS CAGR | +3.8% |
| 10-yr DPS CAGR | +3.5% |
| Payout Ratio (DPS/EPS) | 82.0% ⚠️ |
| FCF Payout Ratio | 60.0% |
| Sustainability Verdict | Safe |
Verdict: Safe. 26-year Shadow Dividend King. DCF coverage ~1.7x.
🔮 Analyst Forecast Section
(a) EPS Consensus
| Year | Low / Actual | Avg | High | # Analysts | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $2.11 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2022 | $2.50 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2023 | $2.52 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2024 | $2.69 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2025 | $2.66 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2026 | $2.62 | $2.79 | $2.96 | 13 | Estimate |
| 2027 | $2.88 | $3.11 | $3.34 | 13 | Estimate |
(b) Revenue Consensus
| Year | Low / Actual | Avg | High | # Analysts | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $40.8B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2022 | $58.2B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2023 | $49.7B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2024 | $56.2B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2025 | $52.6B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2026 | $51.2B | $53.6B | $56.0B | 13 | Estimate |
| 2027 | $55.1B | $57.9B | $60.7B | 13 | Estimate |
(c) Individual Analyst Price Targets
Consensus: Avg $38.50 | Range $31–$41
| Analyst | Firm | Rating | PT | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Selman Akyol | Stifel | Strong Buy | $41 | +9.9% |
(d) Earnings Surprise History
| Quarter | EPS Act vs Est | EPS Beat/Miss | Rev Act vs Est | Rev Beat/Miss | Guidance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.69 vs $0.67 | +$0.02 ✅ | $13.8B vs $13.5B | +$0.3B ✅ | Raised |
(e) Confidence Band Commentary
13 analysts. 2026 capex drop boosts distributable FCF.
💡 Investment Thesis
Bull: 26yr streak, 2027 EBITDA acceleration.
⚖️ DDM Verdict: Hold — Enterprise Products Partners L.P. (EPD)
Current price: $37.29 | Analyst Avg PT: $38.50
$36
🔴 Bear
$41
📊 Base
$49
🚀 Bull
| Tier | Price | Action |
|---|---|---|
| Tier 1 — Starter | ≤$36 | Begin position |
| Tier 2 — Add | ≤$35 | Add on weakness |
| Tier 3 — Full | ≤$33 | Full allocation |
| Sell Alert | ≥$43 | Above fair value — consider trimming |
Hold at $37.29. Wait for $33-34 entry.
Bore Family Office • Analysis generated by Lurch • Not investment advice.