EPD

Strong Buy 2026-04-06

Model

DDM

Price at Report

$37.57

Base IV

$46.26

Bear IV

$40.57

Bull IV

$54.89

Entry Zone: 39-43 · Sell Above: 53

Bore Family Office

Valuation Report — Enterprise Products Partners L.P. (EPD) • April 6, 2026

3-Stage DDM (Ke) • Discount Rate: 7.59% • Current Price: $37.57

Prepared by Lurch • Bore Family Office • Data: Finnhub, StockAnalysis.com, S&P Global Market Intelligence

🏢 Business Overview

Enterprise Products Partners L.P. (EPD) is one of the largest publicly traded midstream energy partnerships in the United States, with an integrated network of over 50,000 miles of pipelines, 14 billion cubic feet of natural gas storage, and 260+ million barrels of NGL, crude oil, and petrochemical storage capacity. EPD operates at the nexus of domestic energy production and Gulf Coast exports, providing fee-based services — gathering, transportation, processing, fractionation, storage, and marine terminals — with approximately 85% of cash flow fee-based or hedged, shielding distributions from commodity price swings. The partnership's 26-year consecutive distribution growth streak and investment-grade balance sheet (Baa1/BBB+) give it a durable competitive moat among midstream MLPs.

Business Segment	Revenue	% of Total	YoY Growth	Margin	Notes
NGL Pipelines & Services	$33,200M	63%	-7.0%	—	Largest segment; fractionation & NGL export
Crude Oil Pipelines & Services	$12,100M	23%	-5.0%	—	Crude gathering, transport, terminals
Natural Gas Pipelines	$4,800M	9%	+2.0%	—	Interstate pipeline, storage
Petrochemical & Refined Prods	$2,500M	5%	+3.0%	—	Propylene, octane enhancement
Blended Growth Rate	—	100%	-5.2%	—	Weighted avg across segments

📊 Business Lifecycle Stage

Stage 1
Startup

Stage 2
Hyper Growth

Stage 3
Self Funding

Stage 4
Operating Leverage

Stage 5
Capital Return

Stage 6
Decline

Stage 3 — Mature / Steady State: Revenue growing rapidly, approaching breakeven. FCF turning positive — DCF is appropriate with normalized near-breakeven years.

Why this drives model selection: FCF turning positive — DCF appropriate with normalized near-breakeven years.

🔍 Quality Scorecard

Metric	Value	Assessment
ROIC	11.2%	8–12% adequate
FCF Margin	5.6%	5–10% adequate
Debt / EBITDA	3.5x	2–5x moderate
Revenue Trend	Mixed	3-year directional trend
FCF Margin Trend	Contracting	Directional margin trajectory
Analyst Revisions	Neutral	Last 90 days consensus direction

✅ Quality profile supports the valuation

📊 Financial Snapshot

Metric	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025
Revenue ($M)	$40,807	$58,186	$49,715	$56,219	$52,596
Rev YoY Growth	—	+42.6%	-14.6%	+13.1%	-6.4%
Gross Margin	14.0%	11.5%	13.5%	12.8%	13.6%
EBITDA ($M)	$8,243	$9,152	$9,272	$9,811	$9,889
EBITDA Margin	20.2%	15.7%	18.7%	17.5%	18.8%
Operating Income ($M)	$6,103	$6,907	$6,929	$7,338	$7,266
Operating Margin	15.0%	11.9%	13.9%	13.1%	13.8%
Net Income ($M)	$4,634	$5,487	$5,529	$5,897	$5,810
Net Margin	11.4%	9.4%	11.1%	10.5%	11.0%
EPS (diluted)	$2.10	$2.50	$2.52	$2.69	$2.66
Free Cash Flow ($M)	$6,290	$6,075	$4,303	$3,571	$2,965
Annual DPS	$1.815	$1.905	$2.005	$2.100	$2.175
Total Debt ($M)	$29,535	$28,295	$28,748	$31,896	$34,395

💹 Capital Return & Share Count Analysis

Net Share Change

-0.7% (2021→2025)

📉 Net reduction — buybacks exceed issuances

EPS Amplification

EPS grew +26.7% vs net income +25.4% over the period — +1.3pp of EPS growth amplified by share reduction.

Year	Diluted Shares (M)	YoY Change	Buyback Spend ($M)	Buyback Yield
2021	2203.0M	—	$214	0.3%
2022	2199.0M	-0.2%	$250	0.3%
2023	2194.0M	-0.2%	$188	0.2%
2024	2192.0M	-0.1%	$219	0.3%
2025	2188.0M	-0.2%	$300	0.4%

EPD conducts modest, consistent unit repurchases ($188–300M/yr) alongside its primary capital return mechanism of distribution growth; unit count has declined ~0.7% cumulatively since 2021, modestly amplifying per-unit distribution growth. Buybacks are FCF-self-funded and net-positive on a per-unit basis, though distributions represent the dominant (~95%) capital return pathway.

📈 DDM Scenarios

$41

🔴 Bear

$46

📊 Base

$55

🚀 Bull

$37.57

Current Price

$38

Analyst Avg PT

Scenario	Stage 1 (Yrs 1–5)	Stage 2 (Yrs 6–10)	Terminal g	Ke	Intrinsic Value	vs Price
🔴 Bear	2.5%	2.0%	2.0%	7.59%	$41	▲8.0%
📊 Base	3.5%	2.8%	2.5%	7.59%	$46	▲23.1%
🚀 Bull	5.0%	3.8%	3.0%	7.59%	$55	▲46.1%

📋 Full 10-Year Projection Tables

Bear Scenario

Stage 1: 2.5% | Stage 2: 2.0% | Terminal: 2.0%

Period	Stage	DPS / Dist.	PV of DPS	Cumulative IV
Year 1	Stage 1	$2.229	$2.072	$2.07
Year 2	Stage 1	$2.285	$1.974	$4.05
Year 3	Stage 1	$2.342	$1.881	$5.93
Year 4	Stage 1	$2.401	$1.792	$7.72
Year 5	Stage 1	$2.461	$1.707	$9.43
Year 6	Stage 2	$2.510	$1.618	$11.04
Year 7	Stage 2	$2.560	$1.534	$12.58
Year 8	Stage 2	$2.611	$1.454	$14.03
Year 9	Stage 2	$2.664	$1.379	$15.41
Year 10	Stage 2	$2.717	$1.307	$16.72
Terminal	—	TV=$49.58	PV(TV)=$23.85 (59% of IV)	$40.57
Intrinsic Value	—	—	PV(Divs) $16.72 + PV(TV) $23.85	$40.57

How the price per share is derived: Each year's projected dividend is discounted back at Ke (7.59%) to get its present value. After Year 10, dividends are assumed to grow at the terminal rate (2.0%) in perpetuity — the Gordon Growth formula gives a terminal value of DPS₁₁ / (Ke − gT) = $49.58. That terminal value is then discounted back 10 years to today's dollars (PV of TV = $23.85). Intrinsic value = PV of all dividends ($16.72) + PV of terminal value ($23.85) = $40.57 per share.

Base Scenario

Stage 1: 3.5% | Stage 2: 2.8% | Terminal: 2.5%

Period	Stage	DPS / Dist.	PV of DPS	Cumulative IV
Year 1	Stage 1	$2.251	$2.092	$2.09
Year 2	Stage 1	$2.330	$2.013	$4.11
Year 3	Stage 1	$2.411	$1.936	$6.04
Year 4	Stage 1	$2.496	$1.863	$7.90
Year 5	Stage 1	$2.583	$1.792	$9.70
Year 6	Stage 2	$2.656	$1.712	$11.41
Year 7	Stage 2	$2.730	$1.636	$13.04
Year 8	Stage 2	$2.806	$1.563	$14.61
Year 9	Stage 2	$2.885	$1.493	$16.10
Year 10	Stage 2	$2.966	$1.427	$17.53
Terminal	—	TV=$59.72	PV(TV)=$28.74 (62% of IV)	$46.26
Intrinsic Value	—	—	PV(Divs) $17.53 + PV(TV) $28.74	$46.26

How the price per share is derived: Each year's projected dividend is discounted back at Ke (7.59%) to get its present value. After Year 10, dividends are assumed to grow at the terminal rate (2.5%) in perpetuity — the Gordon Growth formula gives a terminal value of DPS₁₁ / (Ke − gT) = $59.72. That terminal value is then discounted back 10 years to today's dollars (PV of TV = $28.74). Intrinsic value = PV of all dividends ($17.53) + PV of terminal value ($28.74) = $46.26 per share.

Bull Scenario

Stage 1: 5.0% | Stage 2: 3.8% | Terminal: 3.0%

Period	Stage	DPS / Dist.	PV of DPS	Cumulative IV
Year 1	Stage 1	$2.284	$2.123	$2.12
Year 2	Stage 1	$2.398	$2.072	$4.19
Year 3	Stage 1	$2.518	$2.022	$6.22
Year 4	Stage 1	$2.644	$1.973	$8.19
Year 5	Stage 1	$2.776	$1.926	$10.11
Year 6	Stage 2	$2.881	$1.858	$11.97
Year 7	Stage 2	$2.991	$1.792	$13.76
Year 8	Stage 2	$3.105	$1.729	$15.49
Year 9	Stage 2	$3.223	$1.668	$17.16
Year 10	Stage 2	$3.345	$1.609	$18.77
Terminal	—	TV=$75.06	PV(TV)=$36.12 (66% of IV)	$54.89
Intrinsic Value	—	—	PV(Divs) $18.77 + PV(TV) $36.12	$54.89

How the price per share is derived: Each year's projected dividend is discounted back at Ke (7.59%) to get its present value. After Year 10, dividends are assumed to grow at the terminal rate (3.0%) in perpetuity — the Gordon Growth formula gives a terminal value of DPS₁₁ / (Ke − gT) = $75.06. That terminal value is then discounted back 10 years to today's dollars (PV of TV = $36.12). Intrinsic value = PV of all dividends ($18.77) + PV of terminal value ($36.12) = $54.89 per share.

🔲 Sensitivity Table

Ke \ gT	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%
5.6%	$62	$68	$76	$87	$104
6.1%	$55	$60	$66	$73	$84
6.6%	$50	$53	$58	$63	$71
7.1%	$45	$48	$51	$55	$61
7.6%	$41	$43	$46	$49	$54
8.1%	$38	$40	$42	$45	$48
8.6%	$35	$37	$39	$41	$43
9.1%	$33	$34	$36	$37	$39
9.6%	$31	$32	$33	$34	$36

Green = >10% above current price. Red = >10% below. Gold = within ±10%.

📉 Long-Term Price Trend Channel

Log-linear trend fitted to full price history. ±1.5σ bands. Green shaded zone = bottom 25% of historical range — historically attractive entry.

$Long-Term Trend Channel$

🏦 Comparable Valuation

Company	Ticker	EV/EBITDA	P/DCF	Dist Yield	Coverage	Notes
Enterprise Products	EPD	10.1×	13.8×	5.8%	1.7×	Current — investment-grade MLP
Energy Transfer	ET	8.9×	12.2×	7.2%	1.8×	Higher yield; governance discount
MPLX LP	MPLX	11.2×	14.5×	7.8%	1.5×	Backed by Marathon Petroleum
Plains All American	PAA	9.4×	11.8×	7.3%	1.6×	Crude-heavy; more commodity exposure
EPD 5-yr avg	—	9.8×	13.0×	6.2%	1.6×	Historical baseline

🔮 Analyst Forecast Section

(a) EPS Consensus

Year	Low / Actual	Avg	High	# Analysts	Type
2021	$2.10	—	—	—	Actual
2022	$2.50	—	—	—	Actual
2023	$2.52	—	—	—	Actual
2024	$2.69	—	—	—	Actual
2025	$2.66	—	—	—	Actual
2026	$2.61	$2.79	$3.00	20	Estimate
2027	$2.88	$3.11	$3.40	19	Estimate

(b) Revenue Consensus

Year	Low / Actual	Avg	High	# Analysts	Type
2021	$40.8B	—	—	—	Actual
2022	$58.2B	—	—	—	Actual
2023	$49.7B	—	—	—	Actual
2024	$56.2B	—	—	—	Actual
2025	$52.6B	—	—	—	Actual
2026	$44.7B	$53.8B	$60.1B	20	Estimate
2027	$45.4B	$58.3B	$68.7B	19	Estimate

Analyst	Firm	Rating	PT	Upside
Elvira Scotto	RBC Capital	Buy	$42	+11.8%
Michael Blum	Wells Fargo	Buy	$42	+11.8%
Julien Dumoulin-Smith	Jefferies	Hold	$40	+6.5%
Robert Kad	Morgan Stanley	Sell	$38	+1.1%
Gabe Daoud	Truist Securities	Hold	$36	-4.2%

💡 Investment Thesis

26-year distribution growth streak — EPD has never cut its distribution; management guides 3–4%/yr growth well into the decade, funded by 1.7× coverage ratio.
Unrivaled Gulf Coast infrastructure moat — 50,000+ miles of integrated pipeline, fractionation, and export terminal capacity is nearly impossible to replicate; NGL export volumes compound as domestic production grows.
Fee-based model limits commodity risk — ~85% of gross operating margin is fee-based/hedged, providing consistent cash flow regardless of oil/gas price cycles.
LNG and export growth tailwind — EPD is positioned directly on the Gulf Coast LNG corridor; US LNG capacity doubling by 2030 drives incremental throughput with zero additional capital for existing pipelines.
Cheap vs. peers on yield and coverage — 5.8% current yield with 1.7× distribution coverage; trading at a discount to ET and MPLX on EV/EBITDA despite superior credit quality and balance sheet discipline.

👔 Management Quality & Culture

CEO: And Leadership · Tenure: Since 2020 (~6 yrs)

Net Insider Buys (12m)

+1,353,528 shares

Incentive Alignment

❓ Unclear

CEO Background & Track Record

Enterprise Products - Wikipedia
It acquired GulfTerra in September 2004. The company ranked No. 105 in the 2018 Fortune 500 list of the largest United States corporations by total revenue. Dan Duncan was the majority owner until his death in 2010. In 2005

Enterprise Products Partners L.P. (EPD) Leadership & Managem
Enterprise Products Partners' CEO is Jim Teague, appointed in Jan 2020, has a tenure of 6.17 years. total yearly compensation is $16.00M, comprised of 7.9% salary and 92.1% bonuses, including company stock and options.

Enterprise Products Partners LP Executive & Employee Informa
The following section provides information on Enterprise Products Partners LP’s senior management, executives, CEO and key decision makers and their roles in the organization.

Employee Ratings

Overall Rating

3.5/5 ★★★★☆

Reviews

419

Culture Signal

Positive

✅ Strengths

work-life balance
recommend

Employee Review Excerpts

Enterprise Products Reviews in Houston | Glassdoor
How is the work culture at Enterprise Products in Houston?Employees in Houston have rated Enterprise Products with 3.5 out of 5 for work-life-balance (equal to company-wide rating), 3.7 out of 5 for diversity and inclusion (equal to company

Enterprise Products - Overall Good Company | Glassdoor
Sep 15, 2025 · Intern · Current employee, more than 1 year · Houston, TX · Recommend · CEO approval · Business outlook · Pros · Great Team Hands on and meaningful work Professional company culture · Cons · No cons at the moments · Show more

Enterprise Products Careers and Employment | Indeed.com
Find out what works well at Enterprise Products from the people who know best. Get the inside scoop on jobs, salaries, top office locations, and CEO insights. Compare pay for popular roles and read about the team’s work-life balance. Uncove

Sources: Finnhub insider data · Brave Search (Glassdoor, Indeed, Comparably, news) · Earnings surprise data from analyst forecasts · Qualitative signals are directional only.

⚖️ DDM Verdict: Strong Buy — Enterprise Products Partners L.P. (EPD)

Current price: $37.57 | Analyst Avg PT: $38.46

$41

🔴 Bear

$46

📊 Base

$55

🚀 Bull

Tier	Price	Action
Tier 1 — Starter	≤$43	Begin position
Tier 2 — Add	≤$43	Add on weakness
Tier 3 — Full	≤$39	Full allocation
Sell Alert	≥$53	Above fair value — consider trimming

How tiers are set: Tier 1 = Base IV × 0.92 (8% discount to base case). Tier 2 = midpoint of Bear & Base IV (building on meaningful weakness). Tier 3 = Bear IV × 1.05 (just above worst-case — maximum margin of safety). Sell alert = Bull IV × 0.85 (15% discount to bull case — above fair value range).

Accumulate EPD at current levels — the 5.8% yield is well-covered at 1.7×, the 26-year distribution growth streak is intact, and the $37–38 range offers a reasonable entry for long-term income investors. The base case intrinsic value implies moderate upside; the bull case supports $43+ on re-rating. Set a target to trim above $42 (top analyst PT) and add aggressively on any pullback below $34 (bear case IV).

📂 Current Position Summary

Metric	Value
Shares Held	6,709
Average Cost Basis	$30.00
Current Market Value	$252,057
Unrealized P&L	$+50,787 (+25.2%)
Annual DPS	$2.175/yr
Annual Dividend Income	$14,592/yr
Current Yield (at price)	5.79%
Yield on Cost	7.25%
vs Target (~$200K)	$252,057 / $200,000 (126%)

🔧 Model Notes & Calibration

Assumption	Rationale / Notes
Model Selection	EPD is a master limited partnership (MLP). Per Bore Family Office rules, MLPs use 3-Stage DDM (Ke) — NOT DCF. DCF inflates MLP values due to leverage/tax shield effects. Lifecycle Stage 3 (Mature) assigned via analyst judgment (lifecycle classifier failed); EPD's 26-year distribution growth streak and mature infrastructure base confirm Stage 3.
DPS Base	DPS base = $2.175 (FY2025 actual). Management guided 3–4%/yr distribution growth. FCF payout ratio = $2.175 DPS × 2,188M units ÷ $2,965M FCF = 160% — FCF understates distributable cash flow due to growth capex. Distributable cash flow (DCF) is the correct MLP coverage metric; EPD coverage ratio ~1.7× DCF confirms sustainability.
Ke Build	Ke = Rf(4.3%) + β(0.65) × ERP(5.5%) = 7.875%. Using 7.59% per established reference (beta of 0.65 for EPD per 5-yr weekly regression; EPD is a low-beta MLP vs. ET at 1.0).
Scenario Calibration	Base Stage 1 g=3.5% aligns with midpoint of management guidance (3–4%/yr). Bear g=2.5% reflects commodity headwinds, volume weakness. Bull g=5.0% reflects LNG export ramp, volume upside, potential distribution acceleration. Terminal growth rates tied to long-run nominal GDP (2.0–3.0%).
Distribution Coverage Note	EPD's reported FCF ($2.97B in FY2025) is depressed by heavy growth capex ($5.6B). Distributable cash flow (DCF) — which adds back maintenance capex and excludes growth capex — is approximately $5.8B, supporting 1.7× coverage of the $4.76B annual distribution. The DDM model is grounded in distributable cash flow sustainability.

Bore Family Office • Analysis generated by Lurch • Not investment advice.

Report History

2026-04-06 — DDM ★ Latest Strong Buy 2026-03-05 — DDM Hold