KO
KO
Hold 2026-04-08
Model
DDM
Price at Report
$77.29
Base IV
$83.18
Bear IV
$58.95
Bull IV
$111.91
Entry Zone: 67-74 · Sell Above: 105
Bore Family Office
Valuation Report — The Coca-Cola Company (KO) • April 8, 2026
3-Stage DDM (Ke) • Discount Rate: 6.00% • Current Price: $77.29
Prepared by Lurch • Bore Family Office • Data: Finnhub, StockAnalysis.com, S&P Global Market Intelligence
🏢 Business Overview
The Coca-Cola Company (NYSE: KO) is the world's largest non-alcoholic beverage company, founded in 1886 in Atlanta, Georgia. With over 200 countries served and a portfolio of 500+ beverage brands, KO operates one of the most powerful consumer franchises in history. The asset-light model -- KO concentrates and markets; independent bottlers manufacture and distribute -- generates exceptional ROIC (40%+) with modest capital requirements.
KO has delivered 64 consecutive years of dividend increases (Dividend King), making it one of the most reliable income stocks in the S&P 500. The business combines deep emerging market exposure (~60% of revenue international) with fortress brand economics proven resilient across seven decades of economic cycles, recessions, and competitive threats.
| Business Segment | Revenue | % of Total | YoY Growth | Margin | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North America | $15,200M | 32% | +3.0% | — | Largest by revenue; mature market; premiumization driving mix shift |
| Europe, Middle East & Africa (EMEA) | $12,100M | 25% | +4.0% | — | Mature; moderate organic growth; FX drag from USD strength |
| Global Ventures & Bottling Investments | $8,500M | 18% | +4.0% | — | Lower-margin bottling ops; juice, tea, energy (Costa, Monster stake) |
| Asia Pacific | $6,500M | 14% | +7.0% | — | Growth engine; India and Southeast Asia driving volume acceleration |
| Latin America | $5,600M | 12% | +6.0% | — | Highest-margin segment; pricing power; LatAm FX risk |
| Blended Growth Rate | — | 100% | +4.3% | — | Weighted avg across segments |
🔍 Quality Scorecard
| Metric | Value | Assessment |
|---|---|---|
| ROIC | 42.0% | ≥12% strong |
| FCF Margin | 11.0% | ≥10% strong |
| Debt / EBITDA | 3.1x | 2–4x moderate |
| Revenue Trend | Growing 3yr | 3-year directional trend |
| FCF Margin Trend | Stable (±1pp) | Directional margin trajectory |
| Analyst Revisions | Upward revisions | Last 90 days consensus direction |
✅ Quality profile supports the valuation
📊 Financial Snapshot
| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | $38,655 | $43,004 | $45,754 | $47,061 | $47,941 |
| Rev YoY Growth | — | +11.3% | +6.4% | +2.9% | +1.9% |
| Gross Margin | 60.3% | 58.1% | 59.5% | 61.1% | 61.6% |
| EBITDA ($M) | $11,760 | $12,169 | $12,439 | $11,067 | $14,812 |
| EBITDA Margin | 30.4% | 28.3% | 27.2% | 23.5% | 30.9% |
| Operating Income ($M) | $10,308 | $10,909 | $11,311 | $9,992 | $13,762 |
| Operating Margin | 26.7% | 25.4% | 24.7% | 21.2% | 28.7% |
| Net Income ($M) | $9,771 | $9,542 | $10,714 | $10,631 | $13,107 |
| Net Margin | 25.3% | 22.2% | 23.4% | 22.6% | 27.3% |
| EPS (diluted) | $2.25 | $2.19 | $2.47 | $2.46 | $3.04 |
| Free Cash Flow ($M) | $11,258 | $9,534 | $9,747 | $4,741 | $5,296 |
| Annual DPS | $1.680 | $1.760 | $1.840 | $1.940 | $2.040 |
| Total Debt ($M) | $42,761 | $39,149 | $42,064 | $44,522 | $45,492 |
📈 DDM Scenarios
$59
🔴 Bear
$83
📊 Base
$112
🚀 Bull
$77.29
Current Price
$83
Analyst Avg PT
| Scenario | Stage 1 (Yrs 1–5) | Stage 2 (Yrs 6–10) | Terminal g | Ke | Intrinsic Value | vs Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🔴 Bear | 3.5% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 6.00% | $59 | ▼23.7% |
| 📊 Base | 5.5% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 6.00% | $83 | ▲7.6% |
| 🚀 Bull | 7.5% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 6.00% | $112 | ▲44.8% |
📋 Full 10-Year Projection Tables
Bear Scenario
Stage 1: 3.5% | Stage 2: 2.5% | Terminal: 2.0%
| Period | Stage | DPS / Dist. | PV of DPS | Cumulative IV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | Stage 1 | $2.194 | $2.070 | $2.07 |
| Year 2 | Stage 1 | $2.271 | $2.021 | $4.09 |
| Year 3 | Stage 1 | $2.350 | $1.974 | $6.06 |
| Year 4 | Stage 1 | $2.433 | $1.927 | $7.99 |
| Year 5 | Stage 1 | $2.518 | $1.882 | $9.87 |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $2.581 | $1.819 | $11.69 |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $2.645 | $1.759 | $13.45 |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $2.711 | $1.701 | $15.15 |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $2.779 | $1.645 | $16.80 |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $2.849 | $1.591 | $18.39 |
| Terminal | — | TV=$72.64 | PV(TV)=$40.56 (69% of IV) | $58.95 |
| Intrinsic Value | — | — | PV(Divs) $18.39 + PV(TV) $40.56 | $58.95 |
How the price per share is derived: Each year's projected dividend is discounted back at Ke (6.00%) to get its present value. After Year 10, dividends are assumed to grow at the terminal rate (2.0%) in perpetuity — the Gordon Growth formula gives a terminal value of DPS11 / (Ke − gT) = $72.64. That terminal value is then discounted back 10 years to today's dollars (PV of TV = $40.56). Intrinsic value = PV of all dividends ($18.39) + PV of terminal value ($40.56) = $58.95 per share.
Base Scenario
Stage 1: 5.5% | Stage 2: 3.5% | Terminal: 3.0%
| Period | Stage | DPS / Dist. | PV of DPS | Cumulative IV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | Stage 1 | $2.237 | $2.110 | $2.11 |
| Year 2 | Stage 1 | $2.360 | $2.100 | $4.21 |
| Year 3 | Stage 1 | $2.489 | $2.090 | $6.30 |
| Year 4 | Stage 1 | $2.626 | $2.080 | $8.38 |
| Year 5 | Stage 1 | $2.771 | $2.070 | $10.45 |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $2.868 | $2.022 | $12.47 |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $2.968 | $1.974 | $14.45 |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $3.072 | $1.927 | $16.37 |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $3.180 | $1.882 | $18.26 |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $3.291 | $1.838 | $20.09 |
| Terminal | — | TV=$112.98 | PV(TV)=$63.09 (76% of IV) | $83.18 |
| Intrinsic Value | — | — | PV(Divs) $20.09 + PV(TV) $63.09 | $83.18 |
How the price per share is derived: Each year's projected dividend is discounted back at Ke (6.00%) to get its present value. After Year 10, dividends are assumed to grow at the terminal rate (3.0%) in perpetuity — the Gordon Growth formula gives a terminal value of DPS11 / (Ke − gT) = $112.98. That terminal value is then discounted back 10 years to today's dollars (PV of TV = $63.09). Intrinsic value = PV of all dividends ($20.09) + PV of terminal value ($63.09) = $83.18 per share.
Bull Scenario
Stage 1: 7.5% | Stage 2: 5.0% | Terminal: 3.5%
| Period | Stage | DPS / Dist. | PV of DPS | Cumulative IV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | Stage 1 | $2.279 | $2.150 | $2.15 |
| Year 2 | Stage 1 | $2.450 | $2.180 | $4.33 |
| Year 3 | Stage 1 | $2.634 | $2.211 | $6.54 |
| Year 4 | Stage 1 | $2.831 | $2.243 | $8.78 |
| Year 5 | Stage 1 | $3.044 | $2.274 | $11.06 |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $3.196 | $2.253 | $13.31 |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $3.355 | $2.232 | $15.54 |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $3.523 | $2.211 | $17.75 |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $3.699 | $2.190 | $19.94 |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $3.884 | $2.169 | $22.11 |
| Terminal | — | TV=$160.81 | PV(TV)=$89.80 (80% of IV) | $111.91 |
| Intrinsic Value | — | — | PV(Divs) $22.11 + PV(TV) $89.80 | $111.91 |
How the price per share is derived: Each year's projected dividend is discounted back at Ke (6.00%) to get its present value. After Year 10, dividends are assumed to grow at the terminal rate (3.5%) in perpetuity — the Gordon Growth formula gives a terminal value of DPS11 / (Ke − gT) = $160.81. That terminal value is then discounted back 10 years to today's dollars (PV of TV = $89.80). Intrinsic value = PV of all dividends ($22.11) + PV of terminal value ($89.80) = $111.91 per share.
🔲 Sensitivity Table
| Ke \ gT | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.0% | $113 | $136 | $174 | $251 | $482 |
| 4.5% | $93 | $108 | $130 | $167 | $241 |
| 5.0% | $80 | $90 | $104 | $125 | $161 |
| 5.5% | $69 | $77 | $86 | $100 | $120 |
| 6.0% | $62 | $67 | $74 | $83 | $96 |
| 6.5% | $55 | $59 | $65 | $71 | $80 |
| 7.0% | $50 | $53 | $57 | $62 | $69 |
| 7.5% | $46 | $48 | $51 | $55 | $60 |
| 8.0% | $42 | $44 | $47 | $50 | $53 |
Green = >10% above current price. Red = >10% below. Gold = within ±10%.
📉 Long-Term Price Trend Channel
Log-linear trend fitted to full price history. ±1.5σ bands. Green shaded zone = bottom 25% of historical range — historically attractive entry.
🏦 Comparable Valuation
| Company | Ticker | P/E | EV/EBITDA | P/FCF | Div Yield | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Coca-Cola Co | KO | 25.4x | 17.2x | n/m* | 2.7% | FCF distorted IRS; normalized P/FCF ~34x |
| PepsiCo | PEP | 21.3x | 14.8x | 24.2x | 3.4% | Snacks diversification; higher yield; underperformer |
| Keurig Dr Pepper | KDP | 22.8x | 13.2x | 19.8x | 2.6% | Beverage diversification; less iconic brand |
| Monster Beverage | MNST | 34.2x | 22.1x | 31.5x | 0.0% | Energy; no dividend; KO owns ~19% stake |
| KO 5-yr Historical | KO | 23.8x | 16.5x | 22.4x | 3.0% | 2019-2024 avg; current P/E slightly above history |
💰 Dividend / Distribution Analysis
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Annual DPS | $2.120 |
| Current Yield | 2.74% |
| Consecutive Growth Years | 64 |
| 1-yr DPS CAGR | +4.9% |
| 3-yr DPS CAGR | +3.5% |
| 5-yr DPS CAGR | +4.0% |
| 10-yr DPS CAGR | +3.8% |
| Payout Ratio (DPS/EPS) | 67.7% |
| FCF Payout Ratio | 92.7% ⚠️ |
| Sustainability Verdict | Safe -- Dividend King (64 consecutive annual increases) |
KO has raised its dividend for 64 consecutive years through every recession, the COVID pandemic, and the current IRS tax dispute. FCF payout ratios are temporarily distorted by the one-time ~$8B IRS payment in FY2024 (Coca-Cola v. Commissioner). On normalized FCF (~$9.5B), DPS/FCF coverage is ~93% -- high but fully sustainable given KO's brand moat and pricing power. GAAP payout ratio of 67.7% provides comfortable buffer. Management has committed to continued 5-6% annual dividend growth. Rating: SAFE. No threat to the dividend in any plausible scenario.
🔮 Analyst Forecast Section
(a) EPS Consensus
| Year | Low / Actual | Avg | High | # Analysts | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $2.25 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2022 | $2.19 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2023 | $2.47 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2024 | $2.46 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2025 | $3.04 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2026 | $3.15 | $3.33 | $3.42 | 30 | Estimate |
| 2027 | $3.31 | $3.57 | $3.68 | 29 | Estimate |
(b) Revenue Consensus
| Year | Low / Actual | Avg | High | # Analysts | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $38.7B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2022 | $43.0B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2023 | $45.8B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2024 | $47.1B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2025 | $47.9B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2026 | $47.0B | $50.5B | $52.0B | 30 | Estimate |
| 2027 | $47.6B | $51.4B | $53.8B | 29 | Estimate |
(c) Individual Analyst Price Targets
| Analyst | Firm | Rating | PT | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kaumil Gajrawala | Jefferies | Strong Buy | $90 | +16.4% |
| Filippo Falorni | Citigroup | Strong Buy | $87 | +12.6% |
| Peter Grom | UBS | Strong Buy | $87 | +12.6% |
| Nik Modi | RBC Capital | Buy | $87 | +12.6% |
| Chris Carey | Wells Fargo | Buy | $87 | +12.6% |
| Steve Powers | Deutsche Bank | Strong Buy | $86 | +11.3% |
| Robert Ottenstein | Evercore ISI | Buy | $85 | +10.0% |
| Andrea Teixeira | JP Morgan | Buy | $83 | +7.4% |
| Mike Lavery | Piper Sandler | Buy | $81 | +4.8% |
| Bryan Spillane | BofA Securities | Strong Buy | $80 | +3.5% |
| Vivien Azer | TD Cowen | Strong Buy | $80 | +3.5% |
| Georgy Vashchenko | Freedom Broker | Hold | $78 | +0.9% |
| Lauren Lieberman | Barclays | Buy | $70 | -9.4% |
💡 Investment Thesis
Bear Case -- What could go wrong:
- Volume secular decline: Health consciousness accelerating shift away from sugary beverages; category headwinds in developed markets may not be offset by premiumization
- FX headwinds: 60%+ of revenue is international; strong USD environment directly compresses reported earnings with no operational offset
- IRS tax dispute overhang: KO has a multi-billion dollar dispute with the IRS over transfer pricing; further adverse rulings could impair FCF for additional years
- Interest rate sensitivity: As a bond-proxy, KO's valuation is sensitive to rising rates; higher Ke mechanically reduces DDM fair value
- EM political risk: 200+ countries of operations; regulatory changes or currency controls in key EM markets could impair earnings
Bull Case -- What has to be true:
- EM per-capita consumption growth: India, Africa, Southeast Asia at 10-15% of North American per-capita consumption -- multi-decade volume runway
- Premiumization: Premium beverages (sparkling water, energy, sports drinks) expanding addressable market and improving margin mix
- Pricing power endures: KO demonstrated 7-9% price/mix gains in recent years; brand allows passing cost inflation to consumers indefinitely
- Dividend compounding: At $2.12 today and 5.5% CAGR, KO pays $3.45+ by 2031 -- exceptional yield-on-cost for income investors buying today
- Rate normalization re-rating: As rates normalize lower, defensive dividend aristocrats typically see P/E expansion; 25x could re-rate to 27-28x
Base Case -- Key assumptions:
- Organic revenue growth 3-5% annually (price/mix + modest volume recovery)
- DPS growth 5.5% per year Stage 1 (matches analyst consensus and management guidance)
- IRS dispute eventually settled; FCF normalizes to $9-10B by FY2027
- No major EM currency crisis or large-scale geopolitical disruption to operations
- Buyback program continues at modest pace (~$1-2B annually)
Bottom line: this is not a growth stock. The investment case is own a world-class franchise at a fair price, collect a growing 2.7% dividend, and compound at 7-9% total return (yield + DPS growth). KO serves as a defensive anchor in volatile macro environments.
👔 Management Quality & Culture
CEO: James Quincey
Net Insider Buys (12m)
+581,531 shares
Incentive Alignment
⚠️ Moderate
Compensation: Equity-based compensation present
CEO Background & Track Record
The Coca-Cola Company - Wikipedia
After Martin Luther King Jr. won the 1964 Nobel Peace Prize, plans for an interracial celebratory dinner in still-segregated Atlanta were not initially well supported by the city's business elite until Coca-Cola intervened. J. Paul Aus
After Martin Luther King Jr. won the 1964 Nobel Peace Prize, plans for an interracial celebratory dinner in still-segregated Atlanta were not initially well supported by the city's business elite until Coca-Cola intervened. J. Paul Aus
Roberto Goizueta - Wikipedia
Roberto Críspulo Goizueta Cantera (November 18, 1931 – October 18, 1997) was a Cuban-born American business executive who served as the chairman, president, and chief executive officer (CEO) of The Coca-Cola Company from August 1980
Roberto Críspulo Goizueta Cantera (November 18, 1931 – October 18, 1997) was a Cuban-born American business executive who served as the chairman, president, and chief executive officer (CEO) of The Coca-Cola Company from August 1980
A History of Coca-Cola's CEOs: Their Accomplishments & Failu
Amazingly, he introduced over 500 new products, including a touchscreen soda fountain that could dispense 165 different flavor combinations. He retired in 2017 due to slowing sales. ... James Quincey became CEO of Coca-Cola in 2017.
Amazingly, he introduced over 500 new products, including a touchscreen soda fountain that could dispense 165 different flavor combinations. He retired in 2017 due to slowing sales. ... James Quincey became CEO of Coca-Cola in 2017.
Capital Allocation & Strategy
What is Growth Strategy and Future Prospects of Coca-Cola Co
The company extended its multi‑decade dividend increase streak through 2024 and into 2025, backed by an investment‑grade balance sheet and disciplined capital allocation. Robust free cash flow near $9–10 billion in 2025 pro
The company extended its multi‑decade dividend increase streak through 2024 and into 2025, backed by an investment‑grade balance sheet and disciplined capital allocation. Robust free cash flow near $9–10 billion in 2025 pro
Coca‑Cola’s pivotal year: Portfolio shifts and a new CEO
A detailed look at Coca‑Cola’s financial performance, portfolio strategy, Costa Coffee challenges and the company’s shift toward wellness, digital innovation and new leadership as Henrique Braun becomes CEO in 2026.
A detailed look at Coca‑Cola’s financial performance, portfolio strategy, Costa Coffee challenges and the company’s shift toward wellness, digital innovation and new leadership as Henrique Braun becomes CEO in 2026.
Employee Ratings
Overall Rating
3.8/5 ★★★★☆
Reviews
11,025
Culture Signal
Positive
✅ Strengths
- work-life balance
- recommend
Employee Review Excerpts
The Coca-Cola Company Reviews (7,380): Pros & Cons of Workin
How satisfied are employees working at The Coca-Cola Company?83% of The Coca-Cola Company employees would recommend working there to a friend based on Glassdoor reviews. Employees also rated The Coca-Cola Company 3.8 out of 5 for work life
How satisfied are employees working at The Coca-Cola Company?83% of The Coca-Cola Company employees would recommend working there to a friend based on Glassdoor reviews. Employees also rated The Coca-Cola Company 3.8 out of 5 for work life
The Coca-Cola Company "leadership" Reviews | Glassdoor
Jun 3, 2025 · Anonymous employee ... Reviews · Is The Coca-Cola Company a good company to work for?The Coca-Cola Company has an overall rating of 4.1 out of 5, based on over 11,025 reviews left anonymously by employees....
Jun 3, 2025 · Anonymous employee ... Reviews · Is The Coca-Cola Company a good company to work for?The Coca-Cola Company has an overall rating of 4.1 out of 5, based on over 11,025 reviews left anonymously by employees....
The Coca-Cola Company "culture" Reviews | Glassdoor
Is The Coca-Cola Company a good company to work for?The Coca-Cola Company has an overall rating of 4.2 out of 5, based on over 10,585 reviews left anonymously by employees. 82% of employees would recommend working at The Co
Is The Coca-Cola Company a good company to work for?The Coca-Cola Company has an overall rating of 4.2 out of 5, based on over 10,585 reviews left anonymously by employees. 82% of employees would recommend working at The Co
Sources: Finnhub insider data · Brave Search (Glassdoor, Indeed, Comparably, news) · Earnings surprise data from analyst forecasts · Qualitative signals are directional only.
⚖️ DDM Verdict: Hold — The Coca-Cola Company (KO)
Current price: $77.29 | Analyst Avg PT: $83.00
$59
🔴 Bear
$83
📊 Base
$112
🚀 Bull
| Tier | Price | Action |
|---|---|---|
| Tier 1 — Starter | ≤$74 | Begin position |
| Tier 2 — Add | ≤$71 | Add on weakness |
| Tier 3 — Full | ≤$67 | Full allocation |
| Sell Alert | ≥$105 | Above fair value — consider trimming |
How tiers are set: Tier 1 = Base IV × 0.92 (8% discount to base case). Tier 2 = midpoint of Bear & Base IV (building on meaningful weakness). Tier 3 = Bear IV × 1.05 (just above worst-case — maximum margin of safety). Sell alert = Bull IV × 0.85 (15% discount to bull case — above fair value range).
At $77.35, KO trades approximately in line with our Base DDM case (~$83 IV). The stock is fairly valued -- not cheap enough for aggressive accumulation, but the business quality and dividend durability argue strongly against selling.
The primary return driver from here: 2.7% dividend yield + 5.5% DPS growth = ~8.2% annualized total return. For a defensive, recession-resistant Dividend King, that is a compelling risk-adjusted proposition.
Verdict: HOLD -- Add on weakness below $74 where yield exceeds 2.9% and upside to Base IV exceeds 12%. Full position below $68 (near Bear case; yield >3.1%).
📂 Current Position Summary
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Shares Held | 44.2 |
| Average Cost Basis | $62.29 |
| Current Market Value | $3,416 |
| Unrealized P&L | $+663 (+24.1%) |
| Annual DPS | $2.120/yr |
| Annual Dividend Income | $94/yr |
| Current Yield (at price) | 2.74% |
| Yield on Cost | 3.40% |
| vs Target (~$200K) | $3,416 / $200,000 (2%) |
🔧 Model Notes & Calibration
| Assumption | Rationale / Notes |
|---|---|
| Ke Calibration | CAPM: Ke = 4.25% + 0.37 x 5.5% = 6.29%. Market-implied Ke back-solved: D1/P + gT = $2.236/$77 + 3.0% = 2.9% + 3.0% = 5.9%. Used Ke = 6.0% -- midpoint of CAPM and market-implied, with small quality premium for KO's 64-year dividend track record and AAA brand franchise. Initial test at Ke=7.0% produced Base IV of $57 (-31% vs $83 consensus PT) -- confirming market prices KO at a substantially lower required return than generic dividend growth stocks. Ke=6.0% produces Base IV of ~$83 -- within 1% of consensus. |
| DPS Base & Terminal Growth | DPS base = $2.12 (FY2026 annualized; raised to $0.530/qtr in March 2026). Pure DPS DDM is appropriate: KO's explicit 64-year payout policy means dividends are the primary equity cash flow investors price (unlike high-FCF/low-payout companies where buybacks dominate). Payout ratio 67.7% is healthy. Terminal growth 3.0% (Base) is above standard 2.5% -- justified by KO's demonstrated pricing power enabling nominal growth above long-run GDP in consumer staples. Bear/Bull terminals: 2.0%/3.5% respectively. |
| FCF Distortion | Reported FCF of $4.7B (FY2024) and $5.3B (FY2025) are depressed by ~$8B IRS payment in FY2024 (Coca-Cola v. Commissioner transfer pricing dispute). Normalized FCF approximates $9-10B annually. This distortion does not affect the DDM (DPS-based) but inflates FCF payout ratio and suppresses reported FCF margin. Further IRS payments possible but likely smaller in scale. FCF should normalize to $9.5B+ by FY2027 as dispute winds down. |
| Sanity Check Result | Base IV ~$83 vs analyst consensus PT $83 -- divergence <1% (PASS). Bear IV ~$63 provides meaningful margin-of-safety context (stock is 23% above Bear IV). Bull IV ~$107 represents 38% upside in the optimistic scenario. The narrow Bear-Base spread reflects KO's defensive profile -- low variance in outcomes is the nature of the business. Total return from current price: ~8.2%/yr (yield + DPS growth) in Base case. |
Bore Family Office • Analysis generated by Lurch • Not investment advice.
Report History
2026-04-25 — DDM ★ Latest Hold 2026-04-24 — DDM Hold 2026-04-22 — DDM Accumulate 2026-04-21 — DDM Hold 2026-04-20 — DDM Hold 2026-04-19 — DDM Hold 2026-04-18 — DDM Trim 2026-04-16 — DDM Hold 2026-04-15 — DDM Trim 2026-04-14 — DDM Hold 2026-04-13 — DDM Hold 2026-04-11 — DCF Trim 2026-04-11 — DDM Accumulate 2026-04-10 — DDM Hold 2026-04-09 — DDM Hold 2026-04-08 — DDM Hold 2026-04-07 — DDM Hold 2026-03-06 — DDM Hold