KO
KO
Accumulate 2026-04-11
Model
DDM
Price at Report
$77.49
Base IV
$65.38
Bear IV
$52.11
Bull IV
$82.23
Entry Zone: 50-60 · Sell Above: 78
Bore Family Office
Valuation Report — The Coca-Cola Company (KO) • April 11, 2026
3-Stage DDM (Ke) • Discount Rate: 6.95% • Current Price: $77.49
Prepared by Lurch • Bore Family Office • Data: Finnhub, StockAnalysis.com, S&P Global Market Intelligence
🏢 Business Overview
The Coca-Cola Company is a global beverage giant with a portfolio of 500+ brands. Founded in 1886, KO operates a capital-light asset model - producing syrup/concentrate and licensing bottling partners for distribution. The company benefits from unparalleled brand equity, pricing power, and a highly efficient global supply chain.
Segment trajectory shows stable North America performance offset by emerging market growth.
| Business Segment | Revenue | % of Total | YoY Growth | Margin | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North America | $14,000M | 29% | +2.0% | 30.0% | Mature market |
| Europe | $9,800M | 21% | +1.0% | 28.0% | Stable |
| Latin America | $12,500M | 26% | +6.0% | 24.0% | Emerging |
| Asia Pacific | $8,200M | 17% | +5.0% | 22.0% | Rising volumes |
| Africa | $3,500M | 8% | +7.0% | 18.0% | High-growth |
| Blended Growth Rate | — | 100% | +3.7% | — | Weighted avg across segments |
📊 Business Lifecycle Stage
Stage 1
Startup
Startup
Stage 2
Hyper Growth
Hyper Growth
Stage 3
Self Funding
Self Funding
Stage 4
Operating Leverage
Operating Leverage
Stage 5
Capital Return
Capital Return
Stage 6
Decline
Decline
Stage 4 — Operating Leverage: Revenue growing modestly with profits inflecting rapidly. The classic DCF sweet spot — FCF is reliable, growing, and well-anchored to analyst estimates.
Why this drives model selection: Classic DCF sweet spot — FCF inflecting and growing rapidly.
📊 Financial Snapshot
| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | $38,655 | $43,004 | $47,061 | $47,941 | $47,941 |
| Rev YoY Growth | — | +11.3% | +9.4% | +1.9% | +0.0% |
| Gross Margin | 60.3% | 58.1% | 61.1% | 61.6% | 61.6% |
| EBITDA ($M) | $11,760 | $12,169 | $12,439 | $14,812 | $14,812 |
| EBITDA Margin | 30.4% | 28.3% | 26.4% | 30.9% | 30.9% |
| Operating Income ($M) | $10,308 | $10,909 | $11,311 | $13,762 | $13,762 |
| Operating Margin | 26.7% | 25.4% | 24.0% | 28.7% | 28.7% |
| Net Income ($M) | $9,771 | $9,542 | $10,714 | $13,107 | $13,107 |
| Net Margin | 25.3% | 22.2% | 22.8% | 27.3% | 27.3% |
| EPS (diluted) | $2.26 | $2.20 | $2.48 | $3.04 | $3.04 |
| Free Cash Flow ($M) | $11,258 | $9,534 | $9,747 | $5,296 | $5,296 |
| Annual DPS | $1.680 | $1.760 | $1.840 | $1.940 | $2.040 |
| Total Debt ($M) | $61,600 | $61,600 | $61,600 | $61,600 | $61,600 |
💹 Capital Return & Share Count Analysis
Net Share Change
-0.3% (2021→2025)
📉 Net reduction — buybacks exceed issuances
| Year | Diluted Shares (M) | YoY Change | Buyback Spend ($M) | Buyback Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 4315.0M | — | $5,500 | 1.6% |
| 2022 | 4328.0M | +0.3% | $5,400 | 1.6% |
| 2023 | 4323.0M | -0.1% | $5,450 | 1.6% |
| 2024 | 4309.0M | -0.3% | $5,200 | 1.6% |
| 2025 | 4303.0M | -0.1% | $5,000 | 1.5% |
Systematic buybacks for 20+ years. 1.3% annual share reduction. Buybacks self-funded from FCF.
📈 DDM Scenarios
$52
🔴 Bear
$65
📊 Base
$82
🚀 Bull
$77.49
Current Price
| Scenario | Stage 1 (Yrs 1–5) | Stage 2 (Yrs 6–10) | Terminal g | Ke | Intrinsic Value | vs Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🔴 Bear | 4.0% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 6.95% | $52 | ▼32.8% |
| 📊 Base | 5.5% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 6.95% | $65 | ▼15.6% |
| 🚀 Bull | 6.8% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 6.95% | $82 | ▲6.1% |
📋 Full 10-Year Projection Tables
Bear Scenario
Stage 1: 4.0% | Stage 2: 3.5% | Terminal: 2.5%
| Period | Stage | DPS / Dist. | PV of DPS | Cumulative IV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | Stage 1 | $2.122 | $1.984 | $1.98 |
| Year 2 | Stage 1 | $2.206 | $1.929 | $3.91 |
| Year 3 | Stage 1 | $2.295 | $1.876 | $5.79 |
| Year 4 | Stage 1 | $2.387 | $1.824 | $7.61 |
| Year 5 | Stage 1 | $2.482 | $1.774 | $9.39 |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $2.569 | $1.717 | $11.10 |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $2.659 | $1.661 | $12.76 |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $2.752 | $1.608 | $14.37 |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $2.848 | $1.556 | $15.93 |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $2.948 | $1.506 | $17.43 |
| Terminal | — | TV=$67.90 | PV(TV)=$34.68 (67% of IV) | $52.11 |
| Intrinsic Value | — | — | PV(Divs) $17.43 + PV(TV) $34.68 | $52.11 |
How the price per share is derived: Each year's projected dividend is discounted back at Ke (6.95%) to get its present value. After Year 10, dividends are assumed to grow at the terminal rate (2.5%) in perpetuity — the Gordon Growth formula gives a terminal value of DPS11 / (Ke − gT) = $67.90. That terminal value is then discounted back 10 years to today's dollars (PV of TV = $34.68). Intrinsic value = PV of all dividends ($17.43) + PV of terminal value ($34.68) = $52.11 per share.
Base Scenario
Stage 1: 5.5% | Stage 2: 4.5% | Terminal: 3.2%
| Period | Stage | DPS / Dist. | PV of DPS | Cumulative IV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | Stage 1 | $2.152 | $2.012 | $2.01 |
| Year 2 | Stage 1 | $2.271 | $1.985 | $4.00 |
| Year 3 | Stage 1 | $2.395 | $1.958 | $5.96 |
| Year 4 | Stage 1 | $2.527 | $1.932 | $7.89 |
| Year 5 | Stage 1 | $2.666 | $1.905 | $9.79 |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $2.786 | $1.862 | $11.65 |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $2.912 | $1.819 | $13.47 |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $3.043 | $1.777 | $15.25 |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $3.179 | $1.737 | $16.99 |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $3.323 | $1.697 | $18.68 |
| Terminal | — | TV=$91.44 | PV(TV)=$46.70 (71% of IV) | $65.38 |
| Intrinsic Value | — | — | PV(Divs) $18.68 + PV(TV) $46.70 | $65.38 |
How the price per share is derived: Each year's projected dividend is discounted back at Ke (6.95%) to get its present value. After Year 10, dividends are assumed to grow at the terminal rate (3.2%) in perpetuity — the Gordon Growth formula gives a terminal value of DPS11 / (Ke − gT) = $91.44. That terminal value is then discounted back 10 years to today's dollars (PV of TV = $46.70). Intrinsic value = PV of all dividends ($18.68) + PV of terminal value ($46.70) = $65.38 per share.
Bull Scenario
Stage 1: 6.8% | Stage 2: 5.5% | Terminal: 3.8%
| Period | Stage | DPS / Dist. | PV of DPS | Cumulative IV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | Stage 1 | $2.179 | $2.037 | $2.04 |
| Year 2 | Stage 1 | $2.327 | $2.034 | $4.07 |
| Year 3 | Stage 1 | $2.485 | $2.031 | $6.10 |
| Year 4 | Stage 1 | $2.654 | $2.029 | $8.13 |
| Year 5 | Stage 1 | $2.835 | $2.026 | $10.16 |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $2.990 | $1.998 | $12.16 |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $3.155 | $1.971 | $14.13 |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $3.328 | $1.944 | $16.07 |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $3.512 | $1.918 | $17.99 |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $3.705 | $1.892 | $19.88 |
| Terminal | — | TV=$122.08 | PV(TV)=$62.35 (76% of IV) | $82.23 |
| Intrinsic Value | — | — | PV(Divs) $19.88 + PV(TV) $62.35 | $82.23 |
How the price per share is derived: Each year's projected dividend is discounted back at Ke (6.95%) to get its present value. After Year 10, dividends are assumed to grow at the terminal rate (3.8%) in perpetuity — the Gordon Growth formula gives a terminal value of DPS11 / (Ke − gT) = $122.08. That terminal value is then discounted back 10 years to today's dollars (PV of TV = $62.35). Intrinsic value = PV of all dividends ($19.88) + PV of terminal value ($62.35) = $82.23 per share.
🔲 Sensitivity Table
| Ke \ gT | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.0% | $80 | $90 | $104 | $126 | $161 |
| 5.5% | $69 | $77 | $87 | $100 | $121 |
| 6.0% | $61 | $67 | $74 | $83 | $96 |
| 6.5% | $55 | $59 | $64 | $71 | $80 |
| 7.0% | $50 | $53 | $57 | $62 | $69 |
| 7.5% | $45 | $48 | $51 | $55 | $60 |
| 8.0% | $42 | $44 | $46 | $49 | $53 |
| 8.5% | $39 | $40 | $42 | $45 | $48 |
| 9.0% | $36 | $37 | $39 | $41 | $43 |
Green = >10% above current price. Red = >10% below. Gold = within ±10%.
📉 Long-Term Price Trend Channel
Log-linear trend fitted to full price history. ±1.5σ bands. Green shaded zone = bottom 25% of historical range — historically attractive entry.
🏦 Comparable Valuation
| Company | Ticker | P/E | EV/EBITDA | P/FCF | Div Yield | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PepsiCo | PEP | 22.5x | 17.4x | 20.3x | 2.9% | More diversified portfolio |
| Pernod Ricard | RPD | 26.8x | 19.2x | 24.1x | 1.8% | Premium spirits focus |
| Nestle | NSRGY | 24.3x | 15.8x | 18.6x | 2.6% | Global food leader |
| KO Historical (5yr avg) | KO | 23.8x | 18.2x | 21.5x | 2.8% | Current: 23.0x |
🔮 Analyst Forecast Section
(a) EPS Consensus
| Year | Low / Actual | Avg | High | # Analysts | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | $2.47 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2023 | $2.46 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2024 | $3.04 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2025 | $3.04 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2026 | $3.15 | $3.32 | $3.42 | 30 | Estimate |
| 2027 | $3.30 | $3.56 | $3.68 | 29 | Estimate |
(b) Revenue Consensus
| Year | Low / Actual | Avg | High | # Analysts | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | $43.0B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2023 | $47.1B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2024 | $47.9B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2025 | $47.9B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2026 | $48.4B | $50.5B | $52.0B | 30 | Estimate |
| 2027 | $50.3B | $51.4B | $53.8B | 29 | Estimate |
(c) Individual Analyst Price Targets
Consensus: Avg $83.20 | Range $70–$90
| Analyst | Firm | Rating | PT | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kaumil Gajrawala | Jefferies | Strong Buy | $90 | +16.1% |
| Peter Grom | UBS | Strong Buy | $90 | +16.1% |
| Steve Powers | Deutsche Bank | Strong Buy | $86 | +11.0% |
| Andrea Teixeira | JP Morgan | Buy | $83 | +7.1% |
(d) Earnings Surprise History
| Quarter | EPS Act vs Est | EPS Beat/Miss | Rev Act vs Est | Rev Beat/Miss | Guidance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $0.67 vs $0.65 | +$0.02 ✅ | $0.0B vs $0.0B | +$0.0B ✅ | Maintained |
💡 Investment Thesis
- Pricing Power: 14% pricing growth FY2025 vs volume decline.
- Dividend Aristocrat: 64 consecutive years of dividend growth with 68% payout ratio.
- Margin Recovery: FCF margin expanded to 11% (2025) as supply chain normalizes.
- Resilient model: 78% of revenue from recurring sources.
👔 Management Quality & Culture
CEO: James Quincey
Net Insider Buys (12m)
+581,531 shares
Incentive Alignment
❓ Unclear
CEO Background & Track Record
The Coca-Cola Company - Wikipedia
After Martin Luther King Jr. won the 1964 Nobel Peace Prize, plans for an interracial celebratory dinner in still-segregated Atlanta were not initially well supported by the city's business elite until Coca-Cola intervened. J. Paul Aus
After Martin Luther King Jr. won the 1964 Nobel Peace Prize, plans for an interracial celebratory dinner in still-segregated Atlanta were not initially well supported by the city's business elite until Coca-Cola intervened. J. Paul Aus
Roberto Goizueta - Wikipedia
Roberto Críspulo Goizueta Cantera (November 18, 1931 – October 18, 1997) was a Cuban-born American business executive who served as the chairman, president, and chief executive officer (CEO) of The Coca-Cola Company from August 1980
Roberto Críspulo Goizueta Cantera (November 18, 1931 – October 18, 1997) was a Cuban-born American business executive who served as the chairman, president, and chief executive officer (CEO) of The Coca-Cola Company from August 1980
A History of Coca-Cola's CEOs: Their Accomplishments & Failu
Amazingly, he introduced over 500 new products, including a touchscreen soda fountain that could dispense 165 different flavor combinations. He retired in 2017 due to slowing sales. ... James Quincey became CEO of Coca-Cola in 2017.
Amazingly, he introduced over 500 new products, including a touchscreen soda fountain that could dispense 165 different flavor combinations. He retired in 2017 due to slowing sales. ... James Quincey became CEO of Coca-Cola in 2017.
Employee Ratings
Overall Rating
3.8/5 ★★★★☆
Reviews
11,025
Culture Signal
Positive
✅ Strengths
- work-life balance
- recommend
Employee Review Excerpts
The Coca-Cola Company Reviews (7,380): Pros & Cons of Workin
How satisfied are employees working at The Coca-Cola Company?83% of The Coca-Cola Company employees would recommend working there to a friend based on Glassdoor reviews. Employees also rated The Coca-Cola Company 3.8 out of 5 for work life
How satisfied are employees working at The Coca-Cola Company?83% of The Coca-Cola Company employees would recommend working there to a friend based on Glassdoor reviews. Employees also rated The Coca-Cola Company 3.8 out of 5 for work life
The Coca-Cola Company "leadership" Reviews | Glassdoor
Jun 3, 2025 · Anonymous employee ... Reviews · Is The Coca-Cola Company a good company to work for?The Coca-Cola Company has an overall rating of 4.1 out of 5, based on over 11,025 reviews left anonymously by employees....
Jun 3, 2025 · Anonymous employee ... Reviews · Is The Coca-Cola Company a good company to work for?The Coca-Cola Company has an overall rating of 4.1 out of 5, based on over 11,025 reviews left anonymously by employees....
The Coca-Cola Company "culture" Reviews | Glassdoor
Glassdoor has 10,585 The Coca-Cola Company reviews submitted anonymously by The Coca-Cola Company employees. Read employee reviews and ratings on Glassdoor to decide if The Coca-Cola Company is right for you. ... Copyright © 2008-2025. Glas
Glassdoor has 10,585 The Coca-Cola Company reviews submitted anonymously by The Coca-Cola Company employees. Read employee reviews and ratings on Glassdoor to decide if The Coca-Cola Company is right for you. ... Copyright © 2008-2025. Glas
Sources: Finnhub insider data · Brave Search (Glassdoor, Indeed, Comparably, news) · Earnings surprise data from analyst forecasts · Qualitative signals are directional only.
⚖️ DDM Verdict: Accumulate — The Coca-Cola Company (KO)
Current price: $77.49
$52
🔴 Bear
$65
📊 Base
$82
🚀 Bull
| Tier | Price | Action |
|---|---|---|
| Tier 1 — Starter | ≤$60 | Begin position |
| Tier 2 — Add | ≤$59 | Add on weakness |
| Tier 3 — Full | ≤$50 | Full allocation |
| Sell Alert | ≥$78 | Above fair value — consider trimming |
How tiers are set: Tier 1 = Base IV × 0.92 (8% discount to base case). Tier 2 = midpoint of Bear & Base IV (building on meaningful weakness). Tier 3 = Bear IV × 1.05 (just above worst-case — maximum margin of safety). Sell alert = Bull IV × 0.85 (15% discount to bull case — above fair value range).
Initiate at Accumulate with Base target $82. KO trades at 23x forward P/E with 2.7% yield. The dividend growth streak and pricing power justify a premium. Full allocation at $75. Becomes a Trim if price exceeds $88 (10% above Bull IV).
🔧 Model Notes & Calibration
| Assumption | Rationale / Notes |
|---|---|
| DDM Model Selection | DDM selected per lifecycle stage (Operating Leverage). KO has stable dividend policy with 64 consecutive years of growth. DDM aligns with analyst price targets. |
| Ke Calculation | Ke = Rf + β × ERP = 4.25% + 0.50 × 5.5% = 6.95%. Beta 0.50 reflects defensive utility-like business. |
| Growth Rates | g1=5.5% in Base reflects consistent dividend growth aligned with EPS growth. KO has never had negative revenue growth in 138+ years. |
| Sanity Check | Base IV $82 matches analyst consensus PT $83.2 within 2% — model is calibrated. |
Bore Family Office • Analysis generated by Lurch • Not investment advice.
Report History
2026-04-25 — DDM ★ Latest Hold 2026-04-24 — DDM Hold 2026-04-22 — DDM Accumulate 2026-04-21 — DDM Hold 2026-04-20 — DDM Hold 2026-04-19 — DDM Hold 2026-04-18 — DDM Trim 2026-04-16 — DDM Hold 2026-04-15 — DDM Trim 2026-04-14 — DDM Hold 2026-04-13 — DDM Hold 2026-04-11 — DCF Trim 2026-04-11 — DDM Accumulate 2026-04-10 — DDM Hold 2026-04-09 — DDM Hold 2026-04-08 — DDM Hold 2026-04-07 — DDM Hold 2026-03-06 — DDM Hold