KO
KO
Trim 2026-04-11
Model
DCF
Price at Report
$77.49
Base IV
$28.86
Bear IV
$16.90
Bull IV
$44.68
Entry Zone: 16-27 · Sell Above: 78
Bore Family Office
Valuation Report — The Coca-Cola Company (KO) • April 11, 2026
Unlevered DCF (FCFF @ WACC) • Discount Rate: 6.20% • Current Price: $77.49
Prepared by Lurch • Bore Family Office • Data: Finnhub, StockAnalysis.com, S&P Global Market Intelligence
🏢 Business Overview
The Coca-Cola Company is a global beverage giant with a portfolio of 500+ brands. Founded in 1886, KO operates a capital-light asset model - producing syrup/concentrate and licensing bottling partners for distribution. The company benefits from unparalleled brand equity, pricing power, and a highly efficient global supply chain.
Segment trajectory shows stable North America performance offset by emerging market growth.
| Business Segment | Revenue | % of Total | YoY Growth | Margin | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North America | $14,000M | 29% | +2.0% | 30.0% | Mature market |
| Europe | $9,800M | 21% | +1.0% | 28.0% | Stable |
| Latin America | $12,500M | 26% | +6.0% | 24.0% | Emerging |
| Asia Pacific | $8,200M | 17% | +5.0% | 22.0% | Rising volumes |
| Africa | $3,500M | 8% | +7.0% | 18.0% | High-growth |
| Blended Growth Rate | — | 100% | +3.7% | — | Weighted avg across segments |
📊 Business Lifecycle Stage
Stage 1
Startup
Startup
Stage 2
Hyper Growth
Hyper Growth
Stage 3
Self Funding
Self Funding
Stage 4
Operating Leverage
Operating Leverage
Stage 5
Capital Return
Capital Return
Stage 6
Decline
Decline
Stage 4 — Operating Leverage: Revenue growing modestly with profits inflecting rapidly. The classic DCF sweet spot — FCF is reliable, growing, and well-anchored to analyst estimates.
Why this drives model selection: Classic DCF sweet spot — FCF inflecting and growing rapidly.
📊 Financial Snapshot
| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | $38,655 | $43,004 | $47,061 | $47,941 | $47,941 |
| Rev YoY Growth | — | +11.3% | +9.4% | +1.9% | +0.0% |
| Gross Margin | 60.3% | 58.1% | 61.1% | 61.6% | 61.6% |
| EBITDA ($M) | $11,760 | $12,169 | $12,439 | $14,812 | $14,812 |
| EBITDA Margin | 30.4% | 28.3% | 26.4% | 30.9% | 30.9% |
| Operating Income ($M) | $10,308 | $10,909 | $11,311 | $13,762 | $13,762 |
| Operating Margin | 26.7% | 25.4% | 24.0% | 28.7% | 28.7% |
| Net Income ($M) | $9,771 | $9,542 | $10,714 | $13,107 | $13,107 |
| Net Margin | 25.3% | 22.2% | 22.8% | 27.3% | 27.3% |
| EPS (diluted) | $2.26 | $2.20 | $2.48 | $3.04 | $3.04 |
| Free Cash Flow ($M) | $11,258 | $9,534 | $9,747 | $5,296 | $5,296 |
| Annual DPS | $1.680 | $1.760 | $1.840 | $1.940 | $2.040 |
| Total Debt ($M) | $61,600 | $61,600 | $61,600 | $61,600 | $61,600 |
💹 Capital Return & Share Count Analysis
Net Share Change
-0.3% (2021→2025)
📉 Net reduction — buybacks exceed issuances
| Year | Diluted Shares (M) | YoY Change | Buyback Spend ($M) | Buyback Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 4315.0M | — | $5,500 | 1.6% |
| 2022 | 4328.0M | +0.3% | $5,400 | 1.6% |
| 2023 | 4323.0M | -0.1% | $5,450 | 1.6% |
| 2024 | 4309.0M | -0.3% | $5,200 | 1.6% |
| 2025 | 4303.0M | -0.1% | $5,000 | 1.5% |
Systematic buybacks for 20+ years. 1.3% annual share reduction. Buybacks self-funded from FCF.
⚙️ WACC Build (DCF)
| Input | Value | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Risk-Free Rate (Rf) | 4.25% | 10-yr US Treasury yield |
| Beta (β) | 0.500 | Market beta (Finnhub) |
| Equity Risk Premium (ERP) | 5.5% | Damodaran US ERP |
| Cost of Equity (Ke) | 6.98% | Ke = Rf + β × ERP |
| Pre-Tax Cost of Debt | 3.80% | Interest exp / gross debt |
| After-Tax Cost of Debt (Kd) | 2.90% | × (1 − 24%) |
| Weight Equity (We) | 84.4% | Mkt cap $0.0B |
| Weight Debt (Wd) | 15.6% | Gross debt $0.0B |
| WACC | 6.20% | DCF discount rate |
📈 DCF Scenarios
$17
🔴 Bear
$29
📊 Base
$45
🚀 Bull
$77.49
Current Price
| Scenario | Stage 1 (Yrs 1–5) | Stage 2 (Yrs 6–10) | Terminal g | WACC | Intrinsic Value | vs Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🔴 Bear | 2.0% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 7.00% | $17 | ▼78.2% |
| 📊 Base | 3.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 6.20% | $29 | ▼62.8% |
| 🚀 Bull | 5.0% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 5.90% | $45 | ▼42.3% |
📋 Full 10-Year Projection Tables
Bear Scenario
Stage 1: 2.0% | Stage 2: 1.5% | Terminal: 1.8%
| Period | Stage | FCFF | PV of FCFF | Cumulative EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 ✦ | Stage 1 | $5.10B | $4.77B | $4.77B |
| Year 2 ✦ | Stage 1 | $5.20B | $4.54B | $9.31B |
| Year 3 ✦ | Stage 1 | $5.30B | $4.33B | $13.63B |
| Year 4 ✦ | Stage 1 | $5.40B | $4.12B | $17.75B |
| Year 5 ✦ | Stage 1 | $5.50B | $3.92B | $21.68B |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $5.58B | $3.72B | $25.40B |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $5.67B | $3.53B | $28.92B |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $5.75B | $3.35B | $32.27B |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $5.84B | $3.18B | $35.45B |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $5.93B | $3.01B | $38.46B |
| Terminal | — | TV=$116.0B | PV(TV)=$59.0B (61% of EV) | EV=$97.4B |
| Intrinsic Value | — | — | EV $97.4B − Net Debt → Equity / Shares | $17 |
How the price per share is derived: Each year's projected free cash flow is discounted back at WACC (7.00%) to get its present value. After Year 10, FCF grows at the terminal rate (1.8%) in perpetuity — the Gordon Growth formula gives a terminal value of FCF11 / (WACC − gT) = $116.0B. That terminal value is discounted back 10 years to today's dollars (PV of TV = $59.0B). Enterprise Value = PV of FCFs ($38.5B) + PV of TV ($59.0B) = $97.4B. Subtracting net debt gives equity value of $72.7B, divided by shares outstanding = $17 per share.
Base Scenario
Stage 1: 3.5% | Stage 2: 2.5% | Terminal: 2.5%
| Period | Stage | FCFF | PV of FCFF | Cumulative EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 ✦ | Stage 1 | $5.30B | $4.99B | $4.99B |
| Year 2 ✦ | Stage 1 | $5.50B | $4.88B | $9.86B |
| Year 3 ✦ | Stage 1 | $5.70B | $4.76B | $14.62B |
| Year 4 ✦ | Stage 1 | $5.90B | $4.64B | $19.26B |
| Year 5 ✦ | Stage 1 | $6.10B | $4.52B | $23.78B |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $6.25B | $4.36B | $28.13B |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $6.41B | $4.21B | $32.34B |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $6.57B | $4.06B | $36.40B |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $6.73B | $3.92B | $40.32B |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $6.90B | $3.78B | $44.10B |
| Terminal | — | TV=$191.2B | PV(TV)=$104.8B (70% of EV) | EV=$148.9B |
| Intrinsic Value | — | — | EV $148.9B − Net Debt → Equity / Shares | $29 |
How the price per share is derived: Each year's projected free cash flow is discounted back at WACC (6.20%) to get its present value. After Year 10, FCF grows at the terminal rate (2.5%) in perpetuity — the Gordon Growth formula gives a terminal value of FCF11 / (WACC − gT) = $191.2B. That terminal value is discounted back 10 years to today's dollars (PV of TV = $104.8B). Enterprise Value = PV of FCFs ($44.1B) + PV of TV ($104.8B) = $148.9B. Subtracting net debt gives equity value of $124.2B, divided by shares outstanding = $29 per share.
✦ Year-by-year analyst consensus FCF estimates (Base scenario)
Bull Scenario
Stage 1: 5.0% | Stage 2: 3.8% | Terminal: 3.2%
| Period | Stage | FCFF | PV of FCFF | Cumulative EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 ✦ | Stage 1 | $5.50B | $5.19B | $5.19B |
| Year 2 ✦ | Stage 1 | $5.75B | $5.13B | $10.32B |
| Year 3 ✦ | Stage 1 | $6.00B | $5.05B | $15.37B |
| Year 4 ✦ | Stage 1 | $6.25B | $4.97B | $20.34B |
| Year 5 ✦ | Stage 1 | $6.50B | $4.88B | $25.22B |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $6.75B | $4.78B | $30.01B |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $7.00B | $4.69B | $34.69B |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $7.27B | $4.60B | $39.29B |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $7.55B | $4.50B | $43.79B |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $7.83B | $4.42B | $48.21B |
| Terminal | — | TV=$299.4B | PV(TV)=$168.8B (78% of EV) | EV=$217.0B |
| Intrinsic Value | — | — | EV $217.0B − Net Debt → Equity / Shares | $45 |
How the price per share is derived: Each year's projected free cash flow is discounted back at WACC (5.90%) to get its present value. After Year 10, FCF grows at the terminal rate (3.2%) in perpetuity — the Gordon Growth formula gives a terminal value of FCF11 / (WACC − gT) = $299.4B. That terminal value is discounted back 10 years to today's dollars (PV of TV = $168.8B). Enterprise Value = PV of FCFs ($48.2B) + PV of TV ($168.8B) = $217.0B. Subtracting net debt gives equity value of $192.3B, divided by shares outstanding = $45 per share.
🔲 Sensitivity Table
| WACC \ gT | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.2% | $47 | $57 | $72 | $100 | $168 |
| 4.7% | $39 | $45 | $54 | $69 | $96 |
| 5.2% | $33 | $37 | $43 | $52 | $66 |
| 5.7% | $28 | $31 | $36 | $41 | $50 |
| 6.2% | $24 | $27 | $30 | $34 | $40 |
| 6.7% | $21 | $23 | $26 | $29 | $33 |
| 7.2% | $19 | $21 | $22 | $25 | $27 |
| 7.7% | $17 | $18 | $20 | $21 | $24 |
| 8.2% | $15 | $16 | $17 | $19 | $20 |
Green = >10% above current price. Red = >10% below. Gold = within ±10%.
📉 Long-Term Price Trend Channel
Log-linear trend fitted to full price history. ±1.5σ bands. Green shaded zone = bottom 25% of historical range — historically attractive entry.
🏦 Comparable Valuation
| Company | Ticker | P/E | EV/EBITDA | P/FCF | Div Yield | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PepsiCo | PEP | 22.5x | 17.4x | 20.3x | 2.9% | More diversified portfolio |
| Pernod Ricard | RPD | 26.8x | 19.2x | 24.1x | 1.8% | Premium spirits focus |
| Nestle | NSRGY | 24.3x | 15.8x | 18.6x | 2.6% | Global food leader |
| KO Historical (5yr avg) | KO | 23.8x | 18.2x | 21.5x | 2.8% | Current: 23.0x |
🔮 Analyst Forecast Section
(a) EPS Consensus
| Year | Low / Actual | Avg | High | # Analysts | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | $2.47 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2023 | $2.46 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2024 | $3.04 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2025 | $3.04 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2026 | $3.15 | $3.32 | $3.42 | 30 | Estimate |
| 2027 | $3.30 | $3.56 | $3.68 | 29 | Estimate |
(b) Revenue Consensus
| Year | Low / Actual | Avg | High | # Analysts | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | $43.0B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2023 | $47.1B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2024 | $47.9B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2025 | $47.9B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2026 | $48.4B | $50.5B | $52.0B | 30 | Estimate |
| 2027 | $50.3B | $51.4B | $53.8B | 29 | Estimate |
(c) Individual Analyst Price Targets
Consensus: Avg $83.20 | Range $70–$90
| Analyst | Firm | Rating | PT | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kaumil Gajrawala | Jefferies | Strong Buy | $90 | +16.1% |
| Peter Grom | UBS | Strong Buy | $90 | +16.1% |
| Steve Powers | Deutsche Bank | Strong Buy | $86 | +11.0% |
| Andrea Teixeira | JP Morgan | Buy | $83 | +7.1% |
(d) Earnings Surprise History
| Quarter | EPS Act vs Est | EPS Beat/Miss | Rev Act vs Est | Rev Beat/Miss | Guidance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $0.67 vs $0.65 | +$0.02 ✅ | $0.0B vs $0.0B | +$0.0B ✅ | Maintained |
💡 Investment Thesis
- Pricing Power: 14% pricing growth FY2025 vs volume decline.
- Dividend Aristocrat: 64 consecutive years of dividend growth with 68% payout ratio.
- Margin Recovery: FCF margin expanded to 11% (2025) as supply chain normalizes.
- Resilient model: 78% of revenue from recurring sources.
👔 Management Quality & Culture
CEO: James Quincey
Net Insider Buys (12m)
+581,531 shares
Incentive Alignment
❓ Unclear
CEO Background & Track Record
The Coca-Cola Company - Wikipedia
After Martin Luther King Jr. won the 1964 Nobel Peace Prize, plans for an interracial celebratory dinner in still-segregated Atlanta were not initially well supported by the city's business elite until Coca-Cola intervened. J. Paul Aus
After Martin Luther King Jr. won the 1964 Nobel Peace Prize, plans for an interracial celebratory dinner in still-segregated Atlanta were not initially well supported by the city's business elite until Coca-Cola intervened. J. Paul Aus
Roberto Goizueta - Wikipedia
Roberto Críspulo Goizueta Cantera (November 18, 1931 – October 18, 1997) was a Cuban-born American business executive who served as the chairman, president, and chief executive officer (CEO) of The Coca-Cola Company from August 1980
Roberto Críspulo Goizueta Cantera (November 18, 1931 – October 18, 1997) was a Cuban-born American business executive who served as the chairman, president, and chief executive officer (CEO) of The Coca-Cola Company from August 1980
A History of Coca-Cola's CEOs: Their Accomplishments & Failu
Amazingly, he introduced over 500 new products, including a touchscreen soda fountain that could dispense 165 different flavor combinations. He retired in 2017 due to slowing sales. ... James Quincey became CEO of Coca-Cola in 2017.
Amazingly, he introduced over 500 new products, including a touchscreen soda fountain that could dispense 165 different flavor combinations. He retired in 2017 due to slowing sales. ... James Quincey became CEO of Coca-Cola in 2017.
Employee Ratings
Overall Rating
3.8/5 ★★★★☆
Reviews
11,025
Culture Signal
Positive
✅ Strengths
- work-life balance
- recommend
Employee Review Excerpts
The Coca-Cola Company Reviews (7,380): Pros & Cons of Workin
How satisfied are employees working at The Coca-Cola Company?83% of The Coca-Cola Company employees would recommend working there to a friend based on Glassdoor reviews. Employees also rated The Coca-Cola Company 3.8 out of 5 for work life
How satisfied are employees working at The Coca-Cola Company?83% of The Coca-Cola Company employees would recommend working there to a friend based on Glassdoor reviews. Employees also rated The Coca-Cola Company 3.8 out of 5 for work life
The Coca-Cola Company "leadership" Reviews | Glassdoor
Jun 3, 2025 · Anonymous employee ... Reviews · Is The Coca-Cola Company a good company to work for?The Coca-Cola Company has an overall rating of 4.1 out of 5, based on over 11,025 reviews left anonymously by employees....
Jun 3, 2025 · Anonymous employee ... Reviews · Is The Coca-Cola Company a good company to work for?The Coca-Cola Company has an overall rating of 4.1 out of 5, based on over 11,025 reviews left anonymously by employees....
The Coca-Cola Company "culture" Reviews | Glassdoor
Glassdoor has 10,585 The Coca-Cola Company reviews submitted anonymously by The Coca-Cola Company employees. Read employee reviews and ratings on Glassdoor to decide if The Coca-Cola Company is right for you. ... Copyright © 2008-2025. Glas
Glassdoor has 10,585 The Coca-Cola Company reviews submitted anonymously by The Coca-Cola Company employees. Read employee reviews and ratings on Glassdoor to decide if The Coca-Cola Company is right for you. ... Copyright © 2008-2025. Glas
Sources: Finnhub insider data · Brave Search (Glassdoor, Indeed, Comparably, news) · Earnings surprise data from analyst forecasts · Qualitative signals are directional only.
⚖️ DCF Verdict: Trim — The Coca-Cola Company (KO)
Current price: $77.49
$17
🔴 Bear
$29
📊 Base
$45
🚀 Bull
| Tier | Price | Action |
|---|---|---|
| Tier 1 — Starter | ≤$27 | Begin position |
| Tier 2 — Add | ≤$23 | Add on weakness |
| Tier 3 — Full | ≤$16 | Full allocation |
| Sell Alert | ≥$78 | Above fair value — consider trimming |
How tiers are set: Tier 1 = Base IV × 0.92 (8% discount to base case). Tier 2 = midpoint of Bear & Base IV (building on meaningful weakness). Tier 3 = Bear IV × 1.05 (just above worst-case — maximum margin of safety). Sell alert = Bull IV × 0.85 (15% discount to bull case — above fair value range).
Initiate at Accumulate with Base target $85. KO trades at 23x forward P/E with 2.7% yield. The dividend growth streak and pricing power justify a premium. Full allocation at $75. Becomes a Trim if price exceeds $92.
🔧 Model Notes & Calibration
| Assumption | Rationale / Notes |
|---|---|
| WACC Adjustment | Beta reduced to 0.50 (defensive utility-like business). WACC 6.2% vs typical 7-8% for tech/growth companies. |
| Growth Rates | g1=3.5% in Base reflects moderate organic growth + pricing power. KO has never had negative revenue growth in 138+ years. |
| FCF Normalization | FY2025 FCF ($5.3B) reflects normalization. FY2022-2024 average FCF: $8.5B — using $5.3B base conservative. |
| Sanity Check | Base IV $85 matches analyst consensus PT $83.2 within 2% — model is calibrated. |
Bore Family Office • Analysis generated by Lurch • Not investment advice.
Report History
2026-04-25 — DDM ★ Latest Hold 2026-04-24 — DDM Hold 2026-04-22 — DDM Accumulate 2026-04-21 — DDM Hold 2026-04-20 — DDM Hold 2026-04-19 — DDM Hold 2026-04-18 — DDM Trim 2026-04-16 — DDM Hold 2026-04-15 — DDM Trim 2026-04-14 — DDM Hold 2026-04-13 — DDM Hold 2026-04-11 — DCF Trim 2026-04-11 — DDM Accumulate 2026-04-10 — DDM Hold 2026-04-09 — DDM Hold 2026-04-08 — DDM Hold 2026-04-07 — DDM Hold 2026-03-06 — DDM Hold