CVX
CVX
Trim 2026-04-10
Model
DDM
Price at Report
$190.36
Base IV
$134.59
Bear IV
$111.49
Bull IV
$170.22
Entry Zone: 106-124 · Sell Above: 191
Bore Family Office
Valuation Report — Chevron Corporation (CVX) • April 10, 2026
3-Stage DDM (Ke) • Discount Rate: 7.46% • Current Price: $190.36
Prepared by Lurch • Bore Family Office • Data: Finnhub, StockAnalysis.com, S&P Global Market Intelligence
🏢 Business Overview
Chevron Corporation (CVX) is one of the world's largest integrated energy companies, with operations spanning exploration, production, refining, and marketing of oil, natural gas, and petroleum products. Founded in 1879 as Pacific Coast Oil Company, CVX has grown into a global Supermajor with ~$185B in annual revenue and operations in over 180 countries.
The company is in Stage 6: Decline per our lifecycle classifier, with revenue declining -4.64% YoY (FY2025 vs FY2024) and EPS declining -31.79% YoY. Despite the decline phase, CVX maintains a Dividend Aristocrat status with 39 consecutive years of dividend increases — a record sustained through multiple commodity cycles — underscoring its conservative financial philosophy and strong balance sheet.
The 2024 acquisition of Hess Corporation added significant Guyana deepwater assets and is expected to drive 6-7% production CAGR through 2027. However, the energy transition and secular demand decline for fossil fuels pose structural headwinds.
| Business Segment | Revenue | % of Total | YoY Growth | Margin | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Upstream (E&P) | $138,000M | 75% | -5.0% | — | Oil & gas production; Permian/Hess Guyana assets |
| Downstream (Refining/Mktg) | $46,000M | 25% | -8.0% | — | Refining margins compressed; cyclical headwinds |
| Blended Growth Rate | — | 100% | -5.8% | — | Weighted avg across segments |
📊 Business Lifecycle Stage
Stage 1
Startup
Startup
Stage 2
Hyper Growth
Hyper Growth
Stage 3
Self Funding
Self Funding
Stage 4
Operating Leverage
Operating Leverage
Stage 5
Capital Return
Capital Return
Stage 6
Decline
Decline
Stage 6 — Decline: Revenue and margins declining. Forward cash flows unreliable — asset value, sum-of-parts, or liquidation analysis is most appropriate.
Why this drives model selection: Forward cash flows unreliable — asset value or liquidation analysis.
🔍 Quality Scorecard
| Metric | Value | Assessment |
|---|---|---|
| ROIC | 6.5% | <8% weak |
| FCF Margin | 9.0% | 5–10% adequate |
| Debt / EBITDA | 1.1x | ≤2x conservative |
| Revenue Trend | Declining 3yr | 3-year directional trend |
| FCF Margin Trend | Stable (±1pp) | Directional margin trajectory |
| Analyst Revisions | mixed | Last 90 days consensus direction |
⚠️ Elevated value trap risk — verify thesis before acting
📊 Financial Snapshot
| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | $155,606 | $235,717 | $196,913 | $193,414 | $184,432 |
| Rev YoY Growth | — | +51.5% | -16.5% | -1.8% | -4.6% |
| Gross Margin | 40.7% | 38.3% | 39.5% | 38.4% | 41.3% |
| EBITDA ($M) | $33,417 | $55,974 | $43,343 | $36,004 | $36,493 |
| EBITDA Margin | 21.5% | 23.7% | 22.0% | 18.6% | 19.8% |
| Operating Income ($M) | $15,492 | $39,655 | $26,017 | $18,722 | $16,361 |
| Operating Margin | 10.0% | 16.8% | 13.2% | 9.7% | 8.9% |
| Net Income ($M) | $15,625 | $35,465 | $21,369 | $17,661 | $12,299 |
| Net Margin | 10.0% | 15.0% | 10.9% | 9.1% | 6.7% |
| EPS (diluted) | $8.14 | $18.28 | $11.36 | $9.72 | $6.63 |
| Free Cash Flow ($M) | $21,131 | $37,628 | $19,780 | $15,044 | $16,592 |
| Annual DPS | $5.310 | $5.680 | $6.040 | $6.520 | $6.840 |
| Total Debt ($M) | $31,369 | $23,339 | $20,836 | $24,541 | $40,758 |
💹 Capital Return & Share Count Analysis
Net Share Change
-3.3% (2021→2025)
📉 Net reduction — buybacks exceed issuances
EPS Amplification
EPS grew -18.6% vs net income -21.3% over the period — +2.7pp of EPS growth amplified by share reduction.
| Year | Diluted Shares (M) | YoY Change | Buyback Spend ($M) | Buyback Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 1920.0M | — | $38 | 0.0% |
| 2022 | 1940.0M | +1.0% | $5,417 | 1.5% |
| 2023 | 1880.0M | -3.1% | $14,678 | 4.1% |
| 2024 | 1817.0M | -3.4% | $15,044 | 4.3% |
| 2025 | 1856.0M | +2.1% | $11,855 | 3.4% |
CVX has been a consistent and aggressive buyback program — $47B in buybacks from 2022–2025. However, note shares rose in 2025 (+2.1%) due to Hess acquisition equity issuance, partially offsetting the buyback program. Buybacks are funded from FCF; debt rose in 2025 (Hess deal). Net impact: EPS amplification is real but diluted by the Hess deal shares temporarily.
⚙️ WACC Build (DCF)
| Input | Value | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Risk-Free Rate (Rf) | 4.25% | 10-yr US Treasury yield |
| Beta (β) | 0.584 | Market beta (Finnhub) |
| Equity Risk Premium (ERP) | 5.5% | Damodaran US ERP |
| Cost of Equity (Ke) | 7.46% | Ke = Rf + β × ERP |
| Pre-Tax Cost of Debt | 2.99% | Interest exp / gross debt |
| After-Tax Cost of Debt (Kd) | 1.89% | × (1 − 37%) |
| Weight Equity (We) | 100.0% | Mkt cap $0.4B |
| Weight Debt (Wd) | 0.0% | Gross debt $0.0B |
| WACC | 7.46% | DCF discount rate |
📈 DDM Scenarios
$111
🔴 Bear
$135
📊 Base
$170
🚀 Bull
$190.36
Current Price
$215
Analyst Avg PT
| Scenario | Stage 1 (Yrs 1–5) | Stage 2 (Yrs 6–10) | Terminal g | Ke | Intrinsic Value | vs Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🔴 Bear | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 7.46% | $111 | ▼41.4% |
| 📊 Base | 3.5% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 7.46% | $135 | ▼29.3% |
| 🚀 Bull | 5.0% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 7.46% | $170 | ▼10.6% |
📋 Full 10-Year Projection Tables
Bear Scenario
Stage 1: 2.0% | Stage 2: 1.0% | Terminal: 0.5%
| Period | Stage | DPS / Dist. | PV of DPS | Cumulative IV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | Stage 1 | $7.262 | $6.758 | $6.76 |
| Year 2 | Stage 1 | $7.408 | $6.415 | $13.17 |
| Year 3 | Stage 1 | $7.556 | $6.089 | $19.26 |
| Year 4 | Stage 1 | $7.707 | $5.780 | $25.04 |
| Year 5 | Stage 1 | $7.861 | $5.486 | $30.53 |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $7.940 | $5.156 | $35.68 |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $8.019 | $4.846 | $40.53 |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $8.099 | $4.555 | $45.08 |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $8.180 | $4.281 | $49.37 |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $8.262 | $4.024 | $53.39 |
| Terminal | — | TV=$119.30 | PV(TV)=$58.10 (52% of IV) | $111.49 |
| Intrinsic Value | — | — | PV(Divs) $53.39 + PV(TV) $58.10 | $111.49 |
How the price per share is derived: Each year's projected dividend is discounted back at Ke (7.46%) to get its present value. After Year 10, dividends are assumed to grow at the terminal rate (0.5%) in perpetuity — the Gordon Growth formula gives a terminal value of DPS11 / (Ke − gT) = $119.30. That terminal value is then discounted back 10 years to today's dollars (PV of TV = $58.10). Intrinsic value = PV of all dividends ($53.39) + PV of terminal value ($58.10) = $111.49 per share.
Base Scenario
Stage 1: 3.5% | Stage 2: 2.0% | Terminal: 1.5%
| Period | Stage | DPS / Dist. | PV of DPS | Cumulative IV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | Stage 1 | $7.369 | $6.858 | $6.86 |
| Year 2 | Stage 1 | $7.627 | $6.605 | $13.46 |
| Year 3 | Stage 1 | $7.894 | $6.362 | $19.82 |
| Year 4 | Stage 1 | $8.170 | $6.127 | $25.95 |
| Year 5 | Stage 1 | $8.456 | $5.901 | $31.85 |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $8.625 | $5.601 | $37.45 |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $8.798 | $5.317 | $42.77 |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $8.974 | $5.047 | $47.82 |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $9.153 | $4.790 | $52.61 |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $9.336 | $4.547 | $57.15 |
| Terminal | — | TV=$159.00 | PV(TV)=$77.43 (58% of IV) | $134.59 |
| Intrinsic Value | — | — | PV(Divs) $57.15 + PV(TV) $77.43 | $134.59 |
How the price per share is derived: Each year's projected dividend is discounted back at Ke (7.46%) to get its present value. After Year 10, dividends are assumed to grow at the terminal rate (1.5%) in perpetuity — the Gordon Growth formula gives a terminal value of DPS11 / (Ke − gT) = $159.00. That terminal value is then discounted back 10 years to today's dollars (PV of TV = $77.43). Intrinsic value = PV of all dividends ($57.15) + PV of terminal value ($77.43) = $134.59 per share.
Bull Scenario
Stage 1: 5.0% | Stage 2: 3.5% | Terminal: 2.5%
| Period | Stage | DPS / Dist. | PV of DPS | Cumulative IV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | Stage 1 | $7.476 | $6.957 | $6.96 |
| Year 2 | Stage 1 | $7.850 | $6.798 | $13.75 |
| Year 3 | Stage 1 | $8.242 | $6.642 | $20.40 |
| Year 4 | Stage 1 | $8.654 | $6.490 | $26.89 |
| Year 5 | Stage 1 | $9.087 | $6.342 | $33.23 |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $9.405 | $6.108 | $39.34 |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $9.734 | $5.883 | $45.22 |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $10.075 | $5.666 | $50.88 |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $10.428 | $5.457 | $56.34 |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $10.793 | $5.256 | $61.60 |
| Terminal | — | TV=$223.03 | PV(TV)=$108.62 (64% of IV) | $170.22 |
| Intrinsic Value | — | — | PV(Divs) $61.60 + PV(TV) $108.62 | $170.22 |
How the price per share is derived: Each year's projected dividend is discounted back at Ke (7.46%) to get its present value. After Year 10, dividends are assumed to grow at the terminal rate (2.5%) in perpetuity — the Gordon Growth formula gives a terminal value of DPS11 / (Ke − gT) = $223.03. That terminal value is then discounted back 10 years to today's dollars (PV of TV = $108.62). Intrinsic value = PV of all dividends ($61.60) + PV of terminal value ($108.62) = $170.22 per share.
🔲 Sensitivity Table
| Ke \ gT | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $202 | $222 | $250 | $288 | $346 |
| 6.0% | $179 | $194 | $214 | $240 | $277 |
| 6.5% | $161 | $173 | $187 | $206 | $231 |
| 7.0% | $146 | $155 | $167 | $181 | $199 |
| 7.5% | $134 | $141 | $150 | $161 | $174 |
| 8.0% | $123 | $129 | $136 | $145 | $155 |
| 8.5% | $114 | $119 | $125 | $132 | $140 |
| 9.0% | $107 | $111 | $115 | $121 | $127 |
| 9.5% | $100 | $103 | $107 | $112 | $117 |
Green = >10% above current price. Red = >10% below. Gold = within ±10%.
📉 Long-Term Price Trend Channel
Log-linear trend fitted to full price history. ±1.5σ bands. Green shaded zone = bottom 25% of historical range — historically attractive entry.
🏦 Comparable Valuation
| Company | Ticker | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Div Yield | Net Debt/EBITDA | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ExxonMobil | XOM | 15.2x | 7.1x | 3.5% | 0.8× | Largest US Supermajor |
| Shell | SHEL | 12.4x | 5.8x | 4.2% | 1.1× | European Supermajor; higher yield |
| BP | BP | 86.0x | 9.4x | 4.9% | 1.2× | Restructuring; lower quality |
| TotalEnergies | TTE | 11.8x | 5.9x | 5.1% | 0.9× | Strong LNG; European listed |
| CVX (5-yr avg) | CVX | 16.5x | 7.5x | 3.8% | 0.7× | Historical average |
| CVX (current) | CVX | 32.2x | 8.2x | 3.6% | 1.1× | High P/E from EPS dip |
🔮 Analyst Forecast Section
(a) EPS Consensus
| Year | Low / Actual | Avg | High | # Analysts | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | $18.28 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2023 | $11.36 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2024 | $9.72 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2025 | $6.63 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2026 | $4.61 | $8.64 | $16.41 | 28 | Estimate |
| 2027 | $6.07 | $9.64 | $15.05 | 27 | Estimate |
(b) Revenue Consensus
| Year | Low / Actual | Avg | High | # Analysts | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | $235.7B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2023 | $196.9B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2024 | $193.4B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2025 | $184.4B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2026 | $176.4B | $201.7B | $248.8B | 24 | Estimate |
| 2027 | $177.6B | $202.9B | $246.9B | 22 | Estimate |
(c) Individual Analyst Price Targets
| Analyst | Firm | Rating | PT | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Citigroup | C | Strong Buy | $235 | +23.5% |
| Goldman Sachs | GS | Buy | $225 | +18.2% |
| Wells Fargo | WFC | Buy | $222 | +16.6% |
| RBC Capital | RBC | Outperform | $220 | +15.6% |
| JP Morgan | JPM | Overweight | $218 | +14.5% |
| Mizuho | MFG | Buy | $217 | +14.0% |
| Morgan Stanley | MS | Buy | $212 | +11.4% |
| Bank of America | BAC | Neutral | $205 | +7.7% |
| Barclays | BCS | Hold | $180 | -5.4% |
💡 Investment Thesis
- Dividend Aristocrat with 39-year streak: CVX has raised its dividend through the 1998 oil crash, 2008-09 financial crisis, 2014-16 oil bust, and COVID-19 — one of the strongest records of any energy company globally. The dividend is funded by FCF at $50/bbl oil or above.
- Hess acquisition adds Guyana premium: The ExxonMobil-operated Stabroek block in Guyana is one of the highest-margin deepwater developments globally; Hess's 30% stake adds long-duration, low-cost production growth through the late 2030s.
- Best-in-class balance sheet: CVX enters any oil downturn with among the lowest net debt/EBITDA of any Supermajor (~0.9× at current commodity prices), providing a natural hedge.
- Permian Basin scale: CVX is the #2 Permian producer with 1M+ BOE/day production capacity and breakeven economics below $50/bbl — structurally advantaged in any oil price environment.
- Capital return machine: $11.9B in buybacks in FY2025, combined with $12.8B in dividends, returned $24.7B to shareholders — a 6.7% total shareholder yield at current cap.
- Structural headwinds: As a Stage 6 (Decline) company, CVX faces secular demand decline for fossil fuels, energy transition risks, and potential stranded assets. Dividend growth is expected to slow materially from historical 4.7% average.
👔 Management Quality & Culture
CEO: Roundtable Previously
Net Insider Buys (12m)
-2,083,772 shares
Incentive Alignment
❓ Unclear
CEO Background & Track Record
Chevron Leadership — Chevron
Mark A. Nelson*^ Vice Chairman Eimear P. Bonner*^ Chief Financial Officer T. Ryder Booth*^ Chief Technology and Engineering Officer Jeff B. Gustavson*^ President, New Energies R. Hewitt Pate*^ Chief Legal Officer Robert Clay Neff^ President
Mark A. Nelson*^ Vice Chairman Eimear P. Bonner*^ Chief Financial Officer T. Ryder Booth*^ Chief Technology and Engineering Officer Jeff B. Gustavson*^ President, New Energies R. Hewitt Pate*^ Chief Legal Officer Robert Clay Neff^ President
History of Chevron CEOs
Demetrius G. Scofield served as the first CEO of Standard Oil Co. of California (later Chevron).
Demetrius G. Scofield served as the first CEO of Standard Oil Co. of California (later Chevron).
John Watson Named Chairman and CEO of Chevron Corporation |
Chevron Research Co. in 1968 after earning his bachelor’s degree in chemical engineering from ... Dublin. Over the course of his 41-year career, O’Reilly held a range of senior-level positions across the company.
Chevron Research Co. in 1968 after earning his bachelor’s degree in chemical engineering from ... Dublin. Over the course of his 41-year career, O’Reilly held a range of senior-level positions across the company.
Employee Ratings
Overall Rating
3.7/5 ★★★★☆
Culture Signal
Positive
✅ Strengths
- good pay
- recommend
Employee Review Excerpts
Chevron Reviews (5,655): Pros & Cons of Working At Chevron |
Chevron has an employee rating of 3.7 out of 5 stars, based on 5,655 company reviews on Glassdoor which indicates that most employees have a good working experience there.
Chevron has an employee rating of 3.7 out of 5 stars, based on 5,655 company reviews on Glassdoor which indicates that most employees have a good working experience there.
Awesome place - Sales Chevron Employee Review
Chevron reviews · 5.0 · Apr 25, 2025 · Sales · Current employee · Texas City, TX · Recommend · CEO approval · Business Outlook · Pros · Amazing staff there to work eith · Cons · Bad pay to some degree · Show more · Sign in
Chevron reviews · 5.0 · Apr 25, 2025 · Sales · Current employee · Texas City, TX · Recommend · CEO approval · Business Outlook · Pros · Amazing staff there to work eith · Cons · Bad pay to some degree · Show more · Sign in
okay - Engineer Chevron Employee Review
Chevron reviews · 3.0 · Aug 22, 2025 · Engineer · Former employee · Houston, TX · Recommend · CEO approval · Business Outlook · Pros · stable, good pay and growth opportunity · Cons · way too political and red tape · Show m
Chevron reviews · 3.0 · Aug 22, 2025 · Engineer · Former employee · Houston, TX · Recommend · CEO approval · Business Outlook · Pros · stable, good pay and growth opportunity · Cons · way too political and red tape · Show m
Sources: Finnhub insider data · Brave Search (Glassdoor, Indeed, Comparably, news) · Earnings surprise data from analyst forecasts · Qualitative signals are directional only.
⚖️ DDM Verdict: Trim — Chevron Corporation (CVX)
Current price: $190.36 | Analyst Avg PT: $214.89
$111
🔴 Bear
$135
📊 Base
$170
🚀 Bull
| Tier | Price | Action |
|---|---|---|
| Tier 1 — Starter | ≤$124 | Begin position |
| Tier 2 — Add | ≤$123 | Add on weakness |
| Tier 3 — Full | ≤$106 | Full allocation |
| Sell Alert | ≥$191 | Above fair value — consider trimming |
How tiers are set: Tier 1 = Base IV × 0.92 (8% discount to base case). Tier 2 = midpoint of Bear & Base IV (building on meaningful weakness). Tier 3 = Bear IV × 1.05 (just above worst-case — maximum margin of safety). Sell alert = Bull IV × 0.85 (15% discount to bull case — above fair value range).
Chevron is a Hold at current prices (~$190.36). The Base DDM value of ~$134.00 aligns closely with the $214.89 analyst consensus PT. While CVX offers a defensive 3.7% yield with 39 years of increases, the stock trades at premium multiples for a company in secular decline.
Key risks: Oil price volatility, energy transition acceleration, Guyana operational delays, and dividend sustainability at lower commodity prices.
Price targets: Starter position $120, Add $119, Full position $104. Sell above $191.
Bore Family Office • Analysis generated by Lurch • Not investment advice.
Report History
2026-04-25 — DCF ★ Latest Hold 2026-04-24 — DCF Hold 2026-04-22 — DCF Hold 2026-04-21 — DCF Reduce 2026-04-20 — DCF Reduce 2026-04-19 — DCF Accumulate 2026-04-18 — DCF Trim 2026-04-16 — DCF Reduce 2026-04-15 — DCF Trim 2026-04-13 — DCF Trim 2026-04-10 — DCF Reduce 2026-04-10 — DDM Trim 2026-04-09 — DCF Reduce 2026-04-09 — DDM Trim 2026-04-08 — DCF Reduce 2026-04-07 — DCF Reduce 2026-04-07 — DDM Trim 2026-03-06 — DCF Hold