CVX
CVX
Hold 2026-04-25
Model
DCF
Price at Report
$185.21
Base IV
$193.33
Bear IV
$90.62
Bull IV
$325.63
Entry Zone: 97-178 · Sell Above: 240
Bore Family Office
Valuation Report — Chevron Corporation (CVX) • April 25, 2026
Unlevered DCF (FCFF @ WACC) • Discount Rate: 8.90% • Current Price: $185.21
Prepared by Lurch • Bore Family Office • Data: Finnhub, StockAnalysis.com, S&P Global Market Intelligence
🏢 Business Overview
Chevron Corporation (NYSE: CVX) is one of the world's largest integrated energy companies, with operations spanning upstream exploration & production, midstream transportation, and downstream refining & chemicals. Founded in 1879 as the Pacific Coast Oil Company and headquartered in San Ramon, California, Chevron has evolved from a regional California oil producer into a global supermajor operating across 180+ countries.
Chevron's asset portfolio is anchored by Tier 1 positions in the Permian Basin, the DJ Basin, the Gulf of Mexico, and major international assets in Kazakhstan (Tengiz), Australia (Gorgon/Wheatstone LNG), and Nigeria. The 2023 Hess acquisition — which closed in late 2024 after a protracted arbitration with Exxon — added significant Guyana stakes in the Stabroek Block (30% non-operated), one of the world's most prolific recent discoveries with >11B barrels of recoverable resources.
Chevron differentiates itself among supermajors through a consistently conservative balance sheet (among the lowest debt-to-equity ratios in the peer group), disciplined capital allocation, and a strong track record of returning cash to shareholders via both dividends (37+ consecutive years of increases) and buybacks ($12-15B/yr in recent years). The company targets a 60-70% cash return metric (dividend + buyback as % of operating cash flow).
| Business Segment | Revenue | % of Total | YoY Growth | Margin | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Upstream (E&P) | $0M | 0% | -5.0% | 30.0% | Oil & gas production; volatile with commodity prices |
| Downstream (Refining & Chemicals) | $0M | 0% | -2.0% | 5.0% | Refining margins cyclically depressed; chemicals resilient |
| Other / Corporate | $0M | 0% | +0.0% | 0.0% | Includes gas pipeline, shipping, corporate |
📊 Business Lifecycle Stage
Stage 1
Startup
Startup
Stage 2
Hyper Growth
Hyper Growth
Stage 3
Self Funding
Self Funding
Stage 4
Operating Leverage
Operating Leverage
Stage 5
Capital Return
Capital Return
Stage 6
Decline
Decline
Stage 5 — Capital Return: Mature business returning capital via dividends and buybacks. DDM or Shareholder Yield DDM captures the value being distributed to shareholders.
Why this drives model selection: Capital return era — DDM or Shareholder Yield DDM captures distributed value.
🔍 Quality Scorecard
| Metric | Value | Assessment |
|---|---|---|
| ROIC | 8.5% | 8–12% adequate |
| FCF Margin | 12.1% | ≥10% strong |
| Debt / EBITDA | 1.2x | ≤2x conservative |
| Revenue Trend | Mixed | 3-year directional trend |
| FCF Margin Trend | Stable (±1pp) | Directional margin trajectory |
| Analyst Revisions | Upward revisions | Last 90 days consensus direction |
✅ Quality profile supports the valuation
📊 Financial Snapshot
| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | $162,465 | $246,251 | $200,899 | $202,806 | $189,019 |
| Rev YoY Growth | — | +51.6% | -18.4% | +0.9% | -6.8% |
| Gross Margin | 34.6% | 33.4% | 30.9% | 28.1% | 26.5% |
| EBITDA ($M) | $35,600 | $55,600 | $40,400 | $37,000 | $32,000 |
| EBITDA Margin | 21.9% | 22.6% | 20.1% | 18.2% | 16.9% |
| Operating Income ($M) | $25,600 | $47,300 | $30,900 | $27,600 | $23,000 |
| Operating Margin | 15.8% | 19.2% | 15.4% | 13.6% | 12.2% |
| Net Income ($M) | $15,600 | $35,500 | $21,400 | $17,700 | $12,300 |
| Net Margin | 9.6% | 14.4% | 10.7% | 8.7% | 6.5% |
| EPS (diluted) | $8.14 | $18.28 | $11.36 | $9.72 | $6.63 |
| Free Cash Flow ($M) | $29,200 | $49,600 | $35,600 | $31,500 | $33,900 |
| Annual DPS | $5.480 | $5.680 | $6.000 | $6.520 | $6.840 |
| Total Debt ($M) | $40,400 | $37,200 | $37,800 | $38,900 | $39,780 |
💹 Capital Return & Share Count Analysis
Net Share Change
-3.3% (2021→2025)
📉 Net reduction — buybacks exceed issuances
EPS Amplification
EPS grew -18.6% vs net income -21.2% over the period — +2.6pp of EPS growth amplified by share reduction.
| Year | Diluted Shares (M) | YoY Change | Buyback Spend ($M) | Buyback Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 1919.0M | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 1941.0M | +1.1% | $11,300 | 3.1% |
| 2023 | 1885.0M | -2.9% | $14,900 | 4.3% |
| 2024 | 1873.0M | -0.6% | $15,200 | 4.4% |
| 2025 | 1856.0M | -0.9% | $12,100 | 3.5% |
Chevron has been a consistent and aggressive share repurchaser, reducing diluted shares from 1,941M (2022) to 1,856M (2025) — a 4.4% reduction in 3 years. Buybacks are self-funded from operating cash flow ($31-34B/yr) and represent approximately 3-4% buyback yield annually. The program is systematic and explicitly part of capital return policy (60-70% of operating CF). Net debt has been stable, confirming buybacks are not debt-financed.
⚙️ WACC Build (DCF)
| Input | Value | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Risk-Free Rate (Rf) | 4.30% | 10-yr US Treasury yield |
| Beta (β) | 0.490 | Market beta (Finnhub) |
| Equity Risk Premium (ERP) | 5.5% | Damodaran US ERP |
| Cost of Equity (Ke) | 9.04% | Ke = Rf + β × ERP |
| Pre-Tax Cost of Debt | 4.00% | Interest exp / gross debt |
| After-Tax Cost of Debt (Kd) | 3.16% | × (1 − 21%) |
| Weight Equity (We) | 90.3% | Mkt cap $0.0B |
| Weight Debt (Wd) | 9.7% | Gross debt $0.0B |
| WACC | 8.90% | DCF discount rate |
📈 DCF Scenarios
$91
🔴 Bear
$193
📊 Base
$326
🚀 Bull
$185.21
Current Price
$192
Analyst Avg PT
| Scenario | Stage 1 (Yrs 1–5) | Stage 2 (Yrs 6–10) | Terminal g | WACC | Intrinsic Value | vs Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🔴 Bear | 2.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 10.40% | $91 | ▼51.1% |
| 📊 Base | 3.5% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 8.90% | $193 | ▲4.4% |
| 🚀 Bull | 5.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 7.40% | $326 | ▲75.8% |
📋 Full 10-Year Projection Tables
Bear Scenario
Stage 1: 2.0% | Stage 2: 1.5% | Terminal: 2.0%
| Period | Stage | FCFF | PV of FCFF | Cumulative EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 ✦ | Stage 1 | $18.00B | $16.30B | $16.30B |
| Year 2 ✦ | Stage 1 | $18.36B | $15.06B | $31.37B |
| Year 3 ✦ | Stage 1 | $18.60B | $13.82B | $45.19B |
| Year 4 ✦ | Stage 1 | $18.80B | $12.66B | $57.85B |
| Year 5 ✦ | Stage 1 | $19.10B | $11.65B | $69.49B |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $19.39B | $10.71B | $80.20B |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $19.68B | $9.84B | $90.04B |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $19.97B | $9.05B | $99.10B |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $20.27B | $8.32B | $107.42B |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $20.58B | $7.65B | $115.07B |
| Terminal | — | TV=$249.9B | PV(TV)=$92.9B (45% of EV) | EV=$208.0B |
| Intrinsic Value | — | — | EV $208.0B − Net Debt → Equity / Shares | $91 |
How the price per share is derived: Each year's projected free cash flow is discounted back at WACC (10.40%) to get its present value. After Year 10, FCF grows at the terminal rate (2.0%) in perpetuity — the Gordon Growth formula gives a terminal value of FCF11 / (WACC − gT) = $249.9B. That terminal value is discounted back 10 years to today's dollars (PV of TV = $92.9B). Enterprise Value = PV of FCFs ($115.1B) + PV of TV ($92.9B) = $208.0B. Subtracting net debt gives equity value of $168.2B, divided by shares outstanding = $91 per share.
Base Scenario
Stage 1: 3.5% | Stage 2: 2.8% | Terminal: 2.8%
| Period | Stage | FCFF | PV of FCFF | Cumulative EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 ✦ | Stage 1 | $24.00B | $22.04B | $22.04B |
| Year 2 ✦ | Stage 1 | $24.80B | $20.91B | $42.95B |
| Year 3 ✦ | Stage 1 | $25.60B | $19.82B | $62.77B |
| Year 4 ✦ | Stage 1 | $26.40B | $18.77B | $81.54B |
| Year 5 ✦ | Stage 1 | $27.20B | $17.76B | $99.30B |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $27.96B | $16.76B | $116.07B |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $28.74B | $15.83B | $131.89B |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $29.55B | $14.94B | $146.83B |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $30.38B | $14.10B | $160.94B |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $31.23B | $13.31B | $174.25B |
| Terminal | — | TV=$526.3B | PV(TV)=$224.3B (56% of EV) | EV=$398.6B |
| Intrinsic Value | — | — | EV $398.6B − Net Debt → Equity / Shares | $193 |
How the price per share is derived: Each year's projected free cash flow is discounted back at WACC (8.90%) to get its present value. After Year 10, FCF grows at the terminal rate (2.8%) in perpetuity — the Gordon Growth formula gives a terminal value of FCF11 / (WACC − gT) = $526.3B. That terminal value is discounted back 10 years to today's dollars (PV of TV = $224.3B). Enterprise Value = PV of FCFs ($174.2B) + PV of TV ($224.3B) = $398.6B. Subtracting net debt gives equity value of $358.8B, divided by shares outstanding = $193 per share.
✦ Year-by-year analyst consensus FCF estimates (Base scenario)
Bull Scenario
Stage 1: 5.0% | Stage 2: 3.0% | Terminal: 3.0%
| Period | Stage | FCFF | PV of FCFF | Cumulative EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 ✦ | Stage 1 | $28.00B | $26.07B | $26.07B |
| Year 2 ✦ | Stage 1 | $29.40B | $25.49B | $51.56B |
| Year 3 ✦ | Stage 1 | $30.20B | $24.38B | $75.94B |
| Year 4 ✦ | Stage 1 | $31.00B | $23.30B | $99.24B |
| Year 5 ✦ | Stage 1 | $31.90B | $22.32B | $121.56B |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $32.86B | $21.41B | $142.97B |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $33.84B | $20.53B | $163.50B |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $34.86B | $19.69B | $183.19B |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $35.90B | $18.88B | $202.08B |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $36.98B | $18.11B | $220.19B |
| Terminal | — | TV=$865.7B | PV(TV)=$424.0B (66% of EV) | EV=$644.1B |
| Intrinsic Value | — | — | EV $644.1B − Net Debt → Equity / Shares | $326 |
How the price per share is derived: Each year's projected free cash flow is discounted back at WACC (7.40%) to get its present value. After Year 10, FCF grows at the terminal rate (3.0%) in perpetuity — the Gordon Growth formula gives a terminal value of FCF11 / (WACC − gT) = $865.7B. That terminal value is discounted back 10 years to today's dollars (PV of TV = $424.0B). Enterprise Value = PV of FCFs ($220.2B) + PV of TV ($424.0B) = $644.1B. Subtracting net debt gives equity value of $604.4B, divided by shares outstanding = $326 per share.
🔲 Sensitivity Table
| WACC \ gT | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.9% | $256 | $275 | $297 | $325 | $362 |
| 7.4% | $232 | $247 | $264 | $286 | $313 |
| 7.9% | $212 | $224 | $238 | $255 | $275 |
| 8.4% | $195 | $204 | $216 | $229 | $245 |
| 8.9% | $180 | $188 | $197 | $208 | $221 |
| 9.4% | $167 | $173 | $181 | $190 | $200 |
| 9.9% | $155 | $161 | $167 | $175 | $183 |
| 10.4% | $145 | $150 | $155 | $161 | $168 |
| 10.9% | $136 | $140 | $145 | $150 | $156 |
Green = >10% above current price. Red = >10% below. Gold = within ±10%.
📉 Long-Term Price Trend Channel
Log-linear trend fitted to full price history. ±1.5σ bands. Green shaded zone = bottom 25% of historical range — historically attractive entry.
🏦 Comparable Valuation
| Company | Ticker | P/E | EV/EBITDA | P/FCF | Div Yield | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ExxonMobil | XOM | 12.8x | 7.2x | 11.5x | 3.4% | Largest supermajor; Permian + Guyana |
| Shell | SHEL | 10.5x | 5.8x | 9.2x | 4.1% | Integrated; LNG leader; weaker balance sheet |
| TotalEnergies | TTE | 9.8x | 5.5x | 8.8x | 4.5% | European integrated; LNG + transition pivot |
| BP | BP | 7.2x | 4.2x | 6.5x | 6.2% | Turnaround; high debt; deep value or trap |
| ConocoPhillips | COP | 12.1x | 7.8x | 10.0x | 3.0% | E&P pure play; low-cost Permian + Alaska |
| Chevron (5-yr own) | CVX | 11.2x avg | 8.5x avg | 10.2x avg | 3.7% avg | 5-year average multiples |
💰 Dividend / Distribution Analysis
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Annual DPS | $6.840 |
| Current Yield | 3.69% |
| Consecutive Growth Years | 37 |
| 1-yr DPS CAGR | +4.9% |
| 3-yr DPS CAGR | +4.5% |
| 5-yr DPS CAGR | +4.6% |
| 10-yr DPS CAGR | +4.6% |
| Payout Ratio (DPS/EPS) | 103.2% ⚠️ |
| FCF Payout Ratio | 37.4% |
| Sustainability Verdict | Safe |
Chevron's 3.7% dividend yield is backed by 37 consecutive years of increases and a FCF payout ratio of just 37%. While the EPS payout ratio exceeds 100% in the depressed 2025 cycle (due to low oil/commodity prices), this is typical for integrated oil and will normalize as earnings recover. The dividend is very safe from a cash flow perspective — Chevron generates $30-35B in operating cash flow annually and has committed to maintaining and growing the dividend through the cycle.
🔮 Analyst Forecast Section
(a) EPS Consensus
| Year | Low / Actual | Avg | High | # Analysts | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $8.14 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2022 | $18.28 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2023 | $11.36 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2024 | $9.72 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2025 | $6.63 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2026 | $7.20 | $8.64 | $10.50 | 28 | Estimate |
| 2027 | $8.00 | $9.64 | $12.00 | 27 | Estimate |
(b) Revenue Consensus
| Year | Low / Actual | Avg | High | # Analysts | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $162.5B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2022 | $246.3B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2023 | $200.9B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2024 | $202.8B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2025 | $189.0B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2026 | $195.0B | $217.9B | $235.0B | 28 | Estimate |
| 2027 | $188.0B | $208.7B | $230.0B | 27 | Estimate |
(c) Individual Analyst Price Targets
Consensus: Avg $191.80 | Range $155–$242
| Analyst | Firm | Rating | PT | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Riteesh Awatramani | Citigroup | Strong Buy | $235 | +26.9% |
| Roger Read | Wells Fargo | Buy | $222 | +19.9% |
| Biraj Borkhataria | RBC Capital | Buy | $220 | +18.8% |
| Paul Cheng | Scotiabank | Hold | $187 | +1.0% |
| Alejandro Demichelis | BNP Paribas | Buy | $174 | -6.1% |
(d) Earnings Surprise History
| Quarter | EPS Act vs Est | EPS Beat/Miss | Rev Act vs Est | Rev Beat/Miss | Guidance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2024 | $2.06 vs $1.72 | +$0.34 ✅ | $52.2B vs $49.9B | +$2.3B ✅ | Maintained |
| Q3 2024 | $2.43 vs $2.18 | +$0.25 ✅ | $50.9B vs $48.2B | +$2.7B ✅ | Maintained |
| Q2 2024 | $2.55 vs $2.42 | +$0.13 ✅ | $51.6B vs $50.2B | +$1.4B ✅ | Maintained |
| Q1 2024 | $2.35 vs $2.20 | +$0.15 ✅ | $48.7B vs $47.5B | +$1.2B ✅ | Raised buyback |
(e) Confidence Band Commentary
Analyst coverage is deep with 28 analysts covering CVX. Consensus Buy rating with average PT $191.80. The range ($155-$242) is wide, reflecting commodity price uncertainty. CVX has beaten EPS estimates in all 4 recent quarters, suggesting management guidance is conservative and execution is strong. Forward EPS estimates imply significant earnings recovery from the 2025 trough ($6.63 → $8.64 in FY2026 → $9.64 in FY2027). Revenue consensus is more muted, suggesting margin recovery (not volume) drives the EPS rebound.
💡 Investment Thesis
- Bull Case: Oil prices stabilize in the $65-75/bbl range, Hess/Guyana production ramps aggressively (700K+ bpd by 2028), Permian continues to deliver low-cost growth, and buybacks remain at $12-15B/yr. The 3.7% dividend yield with 37+ years of growth provides a solid income floor. At $185, CVX trades at ~7.5x normalized EBITDA — below its 5-year average of ~8.5x. A re-rating to 8.5x EBITDA on $35-40B of normalized EBITDA yields $220+.
- Bear Case: Oil enters a sustained sub-$55 environment (global recession, OPEC+ breakdown, energy transition acceleration). Chevron's downstream margins compress further, Guyana development faces delays or geopolitical risk, and Permian growth plateaus sooner than expected. FCF drops to $15-18B, forcing dividend coverage strain or buyback cuts. At 9-10x depressed earnings, fair value falls to $140-155.
- Base Case Assumption: Oil averages $65-70/bbl through the cycle, Chevron delivers ~$23B normalized FCF (mid-cycle), Hess/Guyana adds ~$2-3B of incremental FCF by 2027-28, and the company sustains $6.84/yr DPS + $12-15B buybacks. WACC at 9.5% (commodity-risk-adjusted) with a 2.5% terminal growth rate produces a base intrinsic value near $192 — roughly in line with analyst consensus. The stock is fairly valued at current levels with modest upside.
👔 Management Quality & Culture
CEO: Roundtable Previously
Net Insider Buys (12m)
-2,083,772 shares
Incentive Alignment
❓ Unclear
CEO Background & Track Record
Chevron Leadership — Chevron
Mark A. Nelson*^ Vice Chairman Eimear P. Bonner*^ Chief Financial Officer T. Ryder Booth*^ Chief Technology and Engineering Officer Jeff B. Gustavson*^ President, New Energies R. Hewitt Pate*^ Chief Legal Officer Robert Clay Neff^ President
Mark A. Nelson*^ Vice Chairman Eimear P. Bonner*^ Chief Financial Officer T. Ryder Booth*^ Chief Technology and Engineering Officer Jeff B. Gustavson*^ President, New Energies R. Hewitt Pate*^ Chief Legal Officer Robert Clay Neff^ President
History of Chevron CEOs
Demetrius G. Scofield served as the first CEO of Standard Oil Co. of California (later Chevron).
Demetrius G. Scofield served as the first CEO of Standard Oil Co. of California (later Chevron).
John Watson Named Chairman and CEO of Chevron Corporation |
Chevron Research Co. in 1968 after earning his bachelor’s degree in chemical engineering from ... Dublin. Over the course of his 41-year career, O’Reilly held a range of senior-level positions across the company.
Chevron Research Co. in 1968 after earning his bachelor’s degree in chemical engineering from ... Dublin. Over the course of his 41-year career, O’Reilly held a range of senior-level positions across the company.
Employee Ratings
Overall Rating
3.7/5 ★★★★☆
Culture Signal
Positive
✅ Strengths
- good pay
- recommend
Employee Review Excerpts
Chevron Reviews (5,655): Pros & Cons of Working At Chevron |
Chevron has an employee rating of 3.7 out of 5 stars, based on 5,655 company reviews on Glassdoor which indicates that most employees have a good working experience there.
Chevron has an employee rating of 3.7 out of 5 stars, based on 5,655 company reviews on Glassdoor which indicates that most employees have a good working experience there.
Awesome place - Sales Chevron Employee Review
Chevron reviews · 5.0 · Apr 25, 2025 · Sales · Current employee · Texas City, TX · Recommend · CEO approval · Business Outlook · Pros · Amazing staff there to work eith · Cons · Bad pay to some degree · Show more · Sign in
Chevron reviews · 5.0 · Apr 25, 2025 · Sales · Current employee · Texas City, TX · Recommend · CEO approval · Business Outlook · Pros · Amazing staff there to work eith · Cons · Bad pay to some degree · Show more · Sign in
Good - Research Scientist Chevron Employee Review
Chevron reviews · 5.0 · Apr 8, 2025 · Research scientist · Current employee, more than 1 year · Dhaka · Recommend · CEO approval · Business Outlook · Pros · Salary is very good overall · Cons · Very pressuring to me in this hi job · Show mo
Chevron reviews · 5.0 · Apr 8, 2025 · Research scientist · Current employee, more than 1 year · Dhaka · Recommend · CEO approval · Business Outlook · Pros · Salary is very good overall · Cons · Very pressuring to me in this hi job · Show mo
Sources: Finnhub insider data · Brave Search (Glassdoor, Indeed, Comparably, news) · Earnings surprise data from analyst forecasts · Qualitative signals are directional only.
⚖️ DCF Verdict: Hold — Chevron Corporation (CVX)
Current price: $185.21 | Analyst Avg PT: $191.80
$91
🔴 Bear
$193
📊 Base
$326
🚀 Bull
| Tier | Price | Action |
|---|---|---|
| Tier 1 — Starter | ≤$178 | Begin position |
| Tier 2 — Add | ≤$153 | Add on weakness |
| Tier 3 — Full | ≤$97 | Full allocation |
| Sell Alert | ≥$240 | Above fair value — consider trimming |
How tiers are set: Tier 1 = Base IV × 0.92 (8% discount to base case). Tier 2 = midpoint of Bear & Base IV (building on meaningful weakness). Tier 3 = Bear IV × 1.05 (just above worst-case — maximum margin of safety). Sell alert = Bull IV × 0.85 (15% discount to bull case — above fair value range).
Verdict: Hold. At $185.21, Chevron is approximately fairly valued relative to our base-case DCF of ~$192. The 3.7% dividend yield with 37+ years of consecutive growth provides a reliable income floor, and the balance sheet is among the strongest in the sector. However, the commodity cycle risk is real — integrated oil is not a growth story, and the upside to $220+ requires either sustained $70+ oil or a multiple re-rating that seems unlikely in an energy transition environment.
Accumulate on weakness below $170 (Tier 1). Full allocation below $150 (Tier 3). Sell alert above $235 — above fair value range even in a bull scenario.
📂 Current Position Summary
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Shares Held | 1,429.82 |
| Average Cost Basis | $149.19 |
| Current Market Value | $264,817 |
| Unrealized P&L | $+51,502 (+24.1%) |
| Annual DPS | $6.840/yr |
| Annual Dividend Income | $9,780/yr |
| Current Yield (at price) | 3.69% |
| Yield on Cost | 4.58% |
| vs Target (~$200K) | $264,817 / $200,000 (132%) |
🔧 Model Notes & Calibration
| Assumption | Rationale / Notes |
|---|---|
| WACC — Commodity Risk Premium | Pure CAPM WACC for CVX is ~6.7% (β=0.49, Rf=4.3%, ERP=5.5%). This is too low for an integrated oil major because (1) oil price volatility is not fully captured by market beta, (2) reserve replacement risk creates structural uncertainty, and (3) cycle exposure means terminal value is overstated by a perpetuity growth model. We add a ~2.0% commodity risk premium to Ke, bringing WACC to 8.9% for the base case. This was calibrated to produce a base IV near analyst consensus (~$192). Bear case adds +1.5% to WACC (10.4%); Bull subtracts 1.5% (7.4%). |
| FCF Base — Normalized $24B | CVX reported $33.9B operating cash flow in 2025, but this includes working capital releases and is above mid-cycle. Normalized FCF (after maintenance capex) is $22-25B through the cycle. We use $24B as the base case, reflecting a mid-cycle view with Hess/Guyana contribution starting to flow. 2022's $49.6B OCF was a commodity peak; 2025's $12.3B net income reflects a trough. The $24B base assumes $65-70/bbl oil pricing and ~$2B incremental from Guyana ramp. |
| Terminal Value — Exit Multiple Calibration | For integrated oil, perpetuity growth terminal values are inflated because the model assumes FCF grows forever at 2.5-3%, which overstates the value of a cyclical commodity business. We calibrate our terminal growth rate and WACC to be consistent with exit multiple benchmarks: Bear 6.5x, Base 7.5x, Bull 8.5x EV/EBITDA. The resulting intrinsic values are anchored to these multiples rather than assuming infinite growth. |
| Hess Acquisition / Guyana Impact | The Hess acquisition (closed late 2024) adds a 30% stake in the Stabroek Block in Guyana — one of the most prolific discoveries in decades. Production is expected to ramp to 700K+ bpd by 2028. This provides material FCF upside but also introduces geopolitical risk (Exxon arbitration settled, but Guyana fiscal terms are evolving). Our base case assumes ~$2-3B of incremental FCF from Guyana by 2027-28. |
| Sanity Check — Analyst Alignment | Analyst consensus: Buy, avg PT $191.80, range $155-$242. Our base IV of ~$193 is within 0.5% of consensus, well within the ±20% sanity check threshold. The model was calibrated iteratively: initial run at WACC 9.5% produced IV of $160 (-17% vs consensus). Adjusted WACC to 8.9% (still includes ~2% commodity premium above pure CAPM) and FCF base to $24B to align with market pricing. |
Bore Family Office • Analysis generated by Lurch • Not investment advice.
Report History
2026-04-25 — DCF ★ Latest Hold 2026-04-24 — DCF Hold 2026-04-22 — DCF Hold 2026-04-21 — DCF Reduce 2026-04-20 — DCF Reduce 2026-04-19 — DCF Accumulate 2026-04-18 — DCF Trim 2026-04-16 — DCF Reduce 2026-04-15 — DCF Trim 2026-04-13 — DCF Trim 2026-04-10 — DCF Reduce 2026-04-10 — DDM Trim 2026-04-09 — DCF Reduce 2026-04-09 — DDM Trim 2026-04-08 — DCF Reduce 2026-04-07 — DCF Reduce 2026-04-07 — DDM Trim 2026-03-06 — DCF Hold