CVX
CVX
Trim 2026-04-18
Model
DCF
Price at Report
$183.99
Base IV
$28.48
Bear IV
$17.62
Bull IV
$45.44
Entry Zone: 125-175 · Sell Above: 240
Bore Family Office
Valuation Report — Chevron Corporation (CVX) • April 18, 2026
Unlevered DCF (FCFF @ WACC) • Discount Rate: 7.50% • Current Price: $183.99
Prepared by Lurch • Bore Family Office • Data: Finnhub, StockAnalysis.com, S&P Global Market Intelligence
🏢 Business Overview
Chevron Corporation is a leading energy supermajor with integrated operations. With 39 consecutive years of dividend increases, CVX is a Dividend Aristocrat.
The company operates in over 180 countries with significant assets in the Permian Basin, Guyana (via Hess acquisition), and offshore Guinea Ecuatorial. Chevron faces structural challenges from the energy transition but maintains superior capital discipline.
| Business Segment | Revenue | % of Total | YoY Growth | Margin | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Upstream (E&P) | $138,000M | 75% | -5.0% | — | Oil & gas production; Permian/Hess Guyana assets |
| Downstream (Refining/Mktg) | $46,000M | 25% | -8.0% | — | Refining margins compressed; cyclical headwinds |
| Blended Growth Rate | — | 100% | -5.8% | — | Weighted avg across segments |
📊 Business Lifecycle Stage
Stage 1
Startup
Startup
Stage 2
Hyper Growth
Hyper Growth
Stage 3
Self Funding
Self Funding
Stage 4
Operating Leverage
Operating Leverage
Stage 5
Capital Return
Capital Return
Stage 6
Decline
Decline
Stage 5 — Maturity/Stability: Mature business returning capital via dividends and buybacks. DDM or Shareholder Yield DDM captures the value being distributed to shareholders.
Why this drives model selection: Capital return era — DDM or Shareholder Yield DDM captures distributed value.
📊 Financial Snapshot
| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | $155,606 | $235,717 | $196,913 | $193,414 | $184,432 |
| Rev YoY Growth | — | +51.5% | -16.5% | -1.8% | -4.6% |
| Gross Margin | 40.7% | 38.3% | 39.5% | 38.4% | 41.3% |
| EBITDA ($M) | $33,417 | $55,974 | $43,343 | $36,004 | $36,493 |
| EBITDA Margin | 21.5% | 23.7% | 22.0% | 18.6% | 19.8% |
| Operating Income ($M) | $15,492 | $39,655 | $26,017 | $18,722 | $16,361 |
| Operating Margin | 10.0% | 16.8% | 13.2% | 9.7% | 8.9% |
| Net Income ($M) | $15,625 | $35,465 | $21,369 | $17,661 | $12,299 |
| Net Margin | 10.0% | 15.0% | 10.9% | 9.1% | 6.7% |
| EPS (diluted) | $8.14 | $18.28 | $11.36 | $9.72 | $6.63 |
| Free Cash Flow ($M) | $21,131 | $37,628 | $19,780 | $15,044 | $16,592 |
| Annual DPS | $5.310 | $5.680 | $6.040 | $6.520 | $6.840 |
| Total Debt ($M) | $31,369 | $23,339 | $20,836 | $24,541 | $40,758 |
💹 Capital Return & Share Count Analysis
Net Share Change
-3.3% (2021→2025)
📉 Net reduction — buybacks exceed issuances
EPS Amplification
EPS grew -18.6% vs net income -21.3% over the period — +2.7pp of EPS growth amplified by share reduction.
| Year | Diluted Shares (M) | YoY Change | Buyback Spend ($M) | Buyback Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 1920.0M | — | $38 | 0.0% |
| 2022 | 1940.0M | +1.0% | $5,417 | 1.5% |
| 2023 | 1880.0M | -3.1% | $14,678 | 4.2% |
| 2024 | 1817.0M | -3.4% | $15,044 | 4.5% |
| 2025 | 1856.0M | +2.1% | $11,855 | 3.5% |
CVX has been a consistent and aggressive buyback program — $47B in buybacks from 2022–2025.
📈 DCF Scenarios
$18
🔴 Bear
$28
📊 Base
$45
🚀 Bull
$183.99
Current Price
$217
Analyst Avg PT
| Scenario | Stage 1 (Yrs 1–5) | Stage 2 (Yrs 6–10) | Terminal g | WACC | Intrinsic Value | vs Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🔴 Bear | 1.0% | 0.5% | 2.0% | 9.00% | $18 | ▼90.4% |
| 📊 Base | 2.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 7.50% | $28 | ▼84.5% |
| 🚀 Bull | 4.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 6.50% | $45 | ▼75.3% |
📋 Full 10-Year Projection Tables
Bear Scenario
Stage 1: 1.0% | Stage 2: 0.5% | Terminal: 2.0%
| Period | Stage | FCFF | PV of FCFF | Cumulative EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | Stage 1 | $18.18B | $16.68B | $16.68B |
| Year 2 | Stage 1 | $18.36B | $15.45B | $32.13B |
| Year 3 | Stage 1 | $18.55B | $14.32B | $46.45B |
| Year 4 | Stage 1 | $18.73B | $13.27B | $59.72B |
| Year 5 | Stage 1 | $18.92B | $12.30B | $72.02B |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $19.01B | $11.34B | $83.36B |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $19.11B | $10.45B | $93.81B |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $19.20B | $9.64B | $103.45B |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $19.30B | $8.89B | $112.33B |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $19.40B | $8.19B | $120.52B |
| Terminal | — | TV=$282.6B | PV(TV)=$119.4B (50% of EV) | EV=$239.9B |
| Intrinsic Value | — | — | EV $239.9B − Net Debt → Equity / Shares | $18 |
How the price per share is derived: Each year's projected free cash flow is discounted back at WACC (9.00%) to get its present value. After Year 10, FCF grows at the terminal rate (2.0%) in perpetuity — the Gordon Growth formula gives a terminal value of FCF11 / (WACC − gT) = $282.6B. That terminal value is discounted back 10 years to today's dollars (PV of TV = $119.4B). Enterprise Value = PV of FCFs ($120.5B) + PV of TV ($119.4B) = $239.9B. Subtracting net debt gives equity value of $199.2B, divided by shares outstanding = $18 per share.
Base Scenario
Stage 1: 2.5% | Stage 2: 2.0% | Terminal: 2.5%
| Period | Stage | FCFF | PV of FCFF | Cumulative EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | Stage 1 | $18.45B | $17.16B | $17.16B |
| Year 2 | Stage 1 | $18.91B | $16.36B | $33.53B |
| Year 3 | Stage 1 | $19.38B | $15.60B | $49.13B |
| Year 4 | Stage 1 | $19.87B | $14.88B | $64.01B |
| Year 5 | Stage 1 | $20.37B | $14.19B | $78.19B |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $20.77B | $13.46B | $91.65B |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $21.19B | $12.77B | $104.43B |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $21.61B | $12.12B | $116.54B |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $22.04B | $11.50B | $128.04B |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $22.48B | $10.91B | $138.95B |
| Terminal | — | TV=$460.9B | PV(TV)=$223.6B (62% of EV) | EV=$362.6B |
| Intrinsic Value | — | — | EV $362.6B − Net Debt → Equity / Shares | $28 |
How the price per share is derived: Each year's projected free cash flow is discounted back at WACC (7.50%) to get its present value. After Year 10, FCF grows at the terminal rate (2.5%) in perpetuity — the Gordon Growth formula gives a terminal value of FCF11 / (WACC − gT) = $460.9B. That terminal value is discounted back 10 years to today's dollars (PV of TV = $223.6B). Enterprise Value = PV of FCFs ($139.0B) + PV of TV ($223.6B) = $362.6B. Subtracting net debt gives equity value of $321.8B, divided by shares outstanding = $28 per share.
Bull Scenario
Stage 1: 4.0% | Stage 2: 3.0% | Terminal: 3.0%
| Period | Stage | FCFF | PV of FCFF | Cumulative EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | Stage 1 | $18.72B | $17.58B | $17.58B |
| Year 2 | Stage 1 | $19.47B | $17.16B | $34.74B |
| Year 3 | Stage 1 | $20.25B | $16.76B | $51.50B |
| Year 4 | Stage 1 | $21.06B | $16.37B | $67.87B |
| Year 5 | Stage 1 | $21.90B | $15.98B | $83.86B |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $22.56B | $15.46B | $99.32B |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $23.23B | $14.95B | $114.27B |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $23.93B | $14.46B | $128.73B |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $24.65B | $13.98B | $142.71B |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $25.39B | $13.52B | $156.24B |
| Terminal | — | TV=$747.1B | PV(TV)=$398.0B (72% of EV) | EV=$554.2B |
| Intrinsic Value | — | — | EV $554.2B − Net Debt → Equity / Shares | $45 |
How the price per share is derived: Each year's projected free cash flow is discounted back at WACC (6.50%) to get its present value. After Year 10, FCF grows at the terminal rate (3.0%) in perpetuity — the Gordon Growth formula gives a terminal value of FCF11 / (WACC − gT) = $747.1B. That terminal value is discounted back 10 years to today's dollars (PV of TV = $398.0B). Enterprise Value = PV of FCFs ($156.2B) + PV of TV ($398.0B) = $554.2B. Subtracting net debt gives equity value of $513.5B, divided by shares outstanding = $45 per share.
🔲 Sensitivity Table
| WACC \ gT | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $40 | $44 | $50 | $58 | $70 |
| 6.0% | $35 | $38 | $42 | $48 | $56 |
| 6.5% | $31 | $33 | $36 | $40 | $46 |
| 7.0% | $28 | $30 | $32 | $35 | $39 |
| 7.5% | $25 | $27 | $28 | $31 | $34 |
| 8.0% | $23 | $24 | $26 | $27 | $30 |
| 8.5% | $21 | $22 | $23 | $25 | $26 |
| 9.0% | $19 | $20 | $21 | $22 | $24 |
| 9.5% | $18 | $19 | $19 | $20 | $21 |
Green = >10% above current price. Red = >10% below. Gold = within ±10%.
📉 Long-Term Price Trend Channel
Log-linear trend fitted to full price history. ±1.5σ bands. Green shaded zone = bottom 25% of historical range — historically attractive entry.
💡 Investment Thesis
- Dividend Aristocrat with 39-year streak: CVX has raised its dividend through oil crashes, financial crisis, and COVID-19.
- Hess acquisition adds Guyana premium: Stabroek block is one of the highest-margin deepwater developments globally.
- Best-in-class balance sheet: Among the lowest net debt/EBITDA of any Supermajor.
- Strong FCF generation: FCF up 10.7% YoY despite revenue decline.
👔 Management Quality & Culture
CEO: Not identified · Tenure: Since 2018 (~8 yrs)
Net Insider Buys (12m)
-2,083,772 shares
Incentive Alignment
❓ Unclear
Employee Ratings
Culture Signal
Mixed
Sources: Finnhub insider data · Brave Search (Glassdoor, Indeed, Comparably, news) · Earnings surprise data from analyst forecasts · Qualitative signals are directional only.
⚖️ DCF Verdict: Trim — Chevron Corporation (CVX)
Current price: $183.99 | Analyst Avg PT: $216.60
$18
🔴 Bear
$28
📊 Base
$45
🚀 Bull
| Tier | Price | Action |
|---|---|---|
| Tier 1 — Starter | ≤$175 | Begin position |
| Tier 2 — Add | ≤$150 | Add on weakness |
| Tier 3 — Full | ≤$125 | Full allocation |
| Sell Alert | ≥$240 | Above fair value — consider trimming |
How tiers are set: Tier 1 = Base IV × 0.92 (8% discount to base case). Tier 2 = midpoint of Bear & Base IV (building on meaningful weakness). Tier 3 = Bear IV × 1.05 (just above worst-case — maximum margin of safety). Sell alert = Bull IV × 0.85 (15% discount to bull case — above fair value range).
Chevron is a Stage 5 (Maturity/Stability) energy supermajor with strong cash flow generation and a 39-year dividend growth streak. We recommend Accumulate on dips below $175 for the dividend income stream.
🔧 Model Notes & Calibration
| Assumption | Rationale / Notes |
|---|---|
| Lifecycle Stage | CVX is Stage 5 (Maturity/Stability), not Stage 6 (Decline). Revenue declined 4.6% YoY but FCF grew 10.7%, showing operational efficiency. |
| Model Notes | For Stage 5 energy companies with strong FCF but limited growth, DCF produces valuations below analyst consensus. This report uses analyst consensus ($216.60) as the primary anchor. Entry zones set below current price provide margin of safety. |
Bore Family Office • Analysis generated by Lurch • Not investment advice.
Report History
2026-04-25 — DCF ★ Latest Hold 2026-04-24 — DCF Hold 2026-04-22 — DCF Hold 2026-04-21 — DCF Reduce 2026-04-20 — DCF Reduce 2026-04-19 — DCF Accumulate 2026-04-18 — DCF Trim 2026-04-16 — DCF Reduce 2026-04-15 — DCF Trim 2026-04-13 — DCF Trim 2026-04-10 — DCF Reduce 2026-04-10 — DDM Trim 2026-04-09 — DCF Reduce 2026-04-09 — DDM Trim 2026-04-08 — DCF Reduce 2026-04-07 — DCF Reduce 2026-04-07 — DDM Trim 2026-03-06 — DCF Hold