CVX
CVX
Hold 2026-04-24
Model
DCF
Price at Report
$187.60
Base IV
$170.83
Bear IV
$67.20
Bull IV
$349.78
Entry Zone: 64-157 · Sell Above: 297
Bore Family Office
Valuation Report — Chevron Corp (CVX) • April 24, 2026
Unlevered DCF (FCFF @ WACC) • Discount Rate: 7.10% • Current Price: $187.60
Prepared by Lurch • Bore Family Office • Data: Finnhub, StockAnalysis.com, S&P Global Market Intelligence
🏢 Business Overview
Chevron is the second-largest US integrated oil and gas company, with operations spanning upstream exploration & production (anchored by the Permian Basin), midstream transportation, and downstream refining & chemicals. The company acquired PDC Energy in 2023 and continues to expand its Guyana position via the Stabroek block (with Exxon). Chevron maintains one of the strongest balance sheets in the sector (debt/equity 0.22×) and a 37-year consecutive dividend growth streak. While classified as Stage 6 (Decline) by lifecycle analysis, Chevron's capital discipline and low-cost Permian position make it a survivor in the energy transition.
| Business Segment | Revenue | % of Total | YoY Growth | Margin | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Upstream | $68,000M | 37% | -8.0% | — | Permian, DJ Basin, Guyana, Kazakhstan |
| Downstream & Chemicals | $85,000M | 46% | -3.0% | — | Refining, lubricants, additives, chemicals |
| Midstream & Other | $31,432M | 17% | +2.0% | — | Pipeline, shipping, trading, corporate |
| Blended Growth Rate | — | 100% | -4.0% | — | Weighted avg across segments |
📊 Business Lifecycle Stage
Stage 1
Startup
Startup
Stage 2
Hyper Growth
Hyper Growth
Stage 3
Self Funding
Self Funding
Stage 4
Operating Leverage
Operating Leverage
Stage 5
Capital Return
Capital Return
Stage 6
Decline
Decline
Stage 6 — Decline: Revenue and margins declining. Forward cash flows unreliable — asset value, sum-of-parts, or liquidation analysis is most appropriate.
Why this drives model selection: Forward cash flows unreliable — asset value or liquidation analysis.
🔍 Quality Scorecard
| Metric | Value | Assessment |
|---|---|---|
| FCF Margin | 9.0% | 5–10% adequate |
| Debt / EBITDA | 1.1x | ≤2x conservative |
| Revenue Trend | Declining 3yr | 3-year directional trend |
| FCF Margin Trend | Stable (±1pp) | Directional margin trajectory |
| Analyst Revisions | Upward revisions | Last 90 days consensus direction |
✅ Quality profile supports the valuation
📊 Financial Snapshot
| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | $155,606 | $235,717 | $196,913 | $193,414 | $184,432 |
| Rev YoY Growth | — | +51.5% | -16.5% | -1.8% | -4.6% |
| Gross Margin | 40.7% | 38.3% | 39.5% | 38.4% | 41.3% |
| EBITDA ($M) | $33,417 | $55,974 | $43,343 | $36,004 | $36,493 |
| EBITDA Margin | 21.5% | 23.7% | 22.0% | 18.6% | 19.8% |
| Operating Income ($M) | $15,492 | $39,655 | $26,017 | $18,722 | $16,361 |
| Operating Margin | 10.0% | 16.8% | 13.2% | 9.7% | 8.9% |
| Net Income ($M) | $15,625 | $35,465 | $21,369 | $17,661 | $12,299 |
| Net Margin | 10.0% | 15.0% | 10.9% | 9.1% | 6.7% |
| EPS (diluted) | $8.14 | $18.28 | $11.36 | $9.72 | $6.63 |
| Free Cash Flow ($M) | $21,131 | $37,628 | $35,609 | $31,492 | $16,592 |
| Annual DPS | $5.310 | $5.680 | $6.040 | $6.520 | $6.840 |
| Total Debt ($M) | $31,113 | $21,375 | $20,307 | $20,135 | $39,781 |
💹 Capital Return & Share Count Analysis
Net Share Change
+3.5% (2021→2025)
📈 Net dilution — issuances exceed buybacks
EPS Amplification
EPS grew -18.6% vs net income -21.3% over the period — +2.7pp of EPS growth amplified by share reduction.
| Year | Diluted Shares (M) | YoY Change | Buyback Spend ($M) | Buyback Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 1927.0M | — | $4,000 | 1.1% |
| 2022 | 1915.0M | -0.6% | $11,500 | 3.2% |
| 2023 | 1916.0M | +0.1% | $7,500 | 2.1% |
| 2024 | 1769.0M | -7.7% | $17,500 | 5.3% |
| 2025 | 1994.0M | +12.7% | $14,500 | 3.9% |
Chevron has been a consistent buyer, repurchasing ~$55B over 4 years. Shares outstanding fluctuated due to PDC Energy acquisition (2023). Buyback pace of $15-17.5B/yr is top-tier among oil majors.
⚙️ WACC Build (DCF)
| Input | Value | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Risk-Free Rate (Rf) | 4.25% | 10-yr US Treasury yield |
| Beta (β) | 0.520 | Market beta (Finnhub) |
| Equity Risk Premium (ERP) | 5.5% | Damodaran US ERP |
| Cost of Equity (Ke) | 7.11% | Ke = Rf + β × ERP |
| Pre-Tax Cost of Debt | 4.00% | Interest exp / gross debt |
| After-Tax Cost of Debt (Kd) | 3.16% | × (1 − 21%) |
| Weight Equity (We) | 90.4% | Mkt cap $0.0B |
| Weight Debt (Wd) | 9.6% | Gross debt $0.0B |
| WACC | 7.10% | DCF discount rate |
📈 DCF Scenarios
$67
🔴 Bear
$171
📊 Base
$350
🚀 Bull
$187.60
Current Price
$192
Analyst Avg PT
| Scenario | Stage 1 (Yrs 1–5) | Stage 2 (Yrs 6–10) | Terminal g | WACC | Intrinsic Value | vs Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🔴 Bear | -2.0% | 0.0% | 2.0% | 8.60% | $67 | ▼64.2% |
| 📊 Base | 3.0% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 7.10% | $171 | ▼8.9% |
| 🚀 Bull | 7.0% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 6.10% | $350 | ▲86.5% |
📋 Full 10-Year Projection Tables
Bear Scenario
Stage 1: -2.0% | Stage 2: 0.0% | Terminal: 2.0%
| Period | Stage | FCFF | PV of FCFF | Cumulative EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 ✦ | Stage 1 | $12.00B | $11.05B | $11.05B |
| Year 2 ✦ | Stage 1 | $11.80B | $10.01B | $21.05B |
| Year 3 ✦ | Stage 1 | $11.60B | $9.06B | $30.11B |
| Year 4 ✦ | Stage 1 | $11.50B | $8.27B | $38.38B |
| Year 5 ✦ | Stage 1 | $11.50B | $7.61B | $45.99B |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $11.50B | $7.01B | $53.00B |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $11.50B | $6.45B | $59.46B |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $11.50B | $5.94B | $65.40B |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $11.50B | $5.47B | $70.87B |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $11.50B | $5.04B | $75.91B |
| Terminal | — | TV=$177.7B | PV(TV)=$77.9B (51% of EV) | EV=$153.8B |
| Intrinsic Value | — | — | EV $153.8B − Net Debt → Equity / Shares | $67 |
How the price per share is derived: Each year's projected free cash flow is discounted back at WACC (8.60%) to get its present value. After Year 10, FCF grows at the terminal rate (2.0%) in perpetuity — the Gordon Growth formula gives a terminal value of FCF11 / (WACC − gT) = $177.7B. That terminal value is discounted back 10 years to today's dollars (PV of TV = $77.9B). Enterprise Value = PV of FCFs ($75.9B) + PV of TV ($77.9B) = $153.8B. Subtracting net debt gives equity value of $134.0B, divided by shares outstanding = $67 per share.
Base Scenario
Stage 1: 3.0% | Stage 2: 2.0% | Terminal: 2.5%
| Period | Stage | FCFF | PV of FCFF | Cumulative EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 ✦ | Stage 1 | $16.59B | $15.49B | $15.49B |
| Year 2 ✦ | Stage 1 | $17.09B | $14.90B | $30.39B |
| Year 3 ✦ | Stage 1 | $17.60B | $14.33B | $44.72B |
| Year 4 ✦ | Stage 1 | $18.13B | $13.78B | $58.50B |
| Year 5 ✦ | Stage 1 | $18.67B | $13.25B | $71.75B |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $19.04B | $12.62B | $84.37B |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $19.42B | $12.02B | $96.38B |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $19.81B | $11.45B | $107.83B |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $20.21B | $10.90B | $118.73B |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $20.61B | $10.38B | $129.11B |
| Terminal | — | TV=$459.3B | PV(TV)=$231.3B (64% of EV) | EV=$360.4B |
| Intrinsic Value | — | — | EV $360.4B − Net Debt → Equity / Shares | $171 |
How the price per share is derived: Each year's projected free cash flow is discounted back at WACC (7.10%) to get its present value. After Year 10, FCF grows at the terminal rate (2.5%) in perpetuity — the Gordon Growth formula gives a terminal value of FCF11 / (WACC − gT) = $459.3B. That terminal value is discounted back 10 years to today's dollars (PV of TV = $231.3B). Enterprise Value = PV of FCFs ($129.1B) + PV of TV ($231.3B) = $360.4B. Subtracting net debt gives equity value of $340.6B, divided by shares outstanding = $171 per share.
✦ Year-by-year analyst consensus FCF estimates (Base scenario)
Bull Scenario
Stage 1: 7.0% | Stage 2: 4.0% | Terminal: 3.0%
| Period | Stage | FCFF | PV of FCFF | Cumulative EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 ✦ | Stage 1 | $18.50B | $17.44B | $17.44B |
| Year 2 ✦ | Stage 1 | $19.80B | $17.59B | $35.03B |
| Year 3 ✦ | Stage 1 | $21.20B | $17.75B | $52.77B |
| Year 4 ✦ | Stage 1 | $22.70B | $17.91B | $70.69B |
| Year 5 ✦ | Stage 1 | $24.30B | $18.07B | $88.76B |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $25.27B | $17.72B | $106.48B |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $26.28B | $17.36B | $123.84B |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $27.33B | $17.02B | $140.86B |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $28.43B | $16.68B | $157.55B |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $29.56B | $16.35B | $173.90B |
| Terminal | — | TV=$982.3B | PV(TV)=$543.4B (76% of EV) | EV=$717.3B |
| Intrinsic Value | — | — | EV $717.3B − Net Debt → Equity / Shares | $350 |
How the price per share is derived: Each year's projected free cash flow is discounted back at WACC (6.10%) to get its present value. After Year 10, FCF grows at the terminal rate (3.0%) in perpetuity — the Gordon Growth formula gives a terminal value of FCF11 / (WACC − gT) = $982.3B. That terminal value is discounted back 10 years to today's dollars (PV of TV = $543.4B). Enterprise Value = PV of FCFs ($173.9B) + PV of TV ($543.4B) = $717.3B. Subtracting net debt gives equity value of $697.5B, divided by shares outstanding = $350 per share.
🔲 Sensitivity Table
| WACC \ gT | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.1% | $246 | $277 | $319 | $381 | $483 |
| 5.6% | $215 | $237 | $266 | $307 | $366 |
| 6.1% | $190 | $207 | $228 | $256 | $295 |
| 6.6% | $170 | $183 | $199 | $219 | $246 |
| 7.1% | $154 | $164 | $176 | $192 | $211 |
| 7.6% | $140 | $148 | $158 | $170 | $184 |
| 8.1% | $129 | $135 | $143 | $152 | $164 |
| 8.6% | $119 | $124 | $131 | $138 | $147 |
| 9.1% | $110 | $115 | $120 | $126 | $133 |
Green = >10% above current price. Red = >10% below. Gold = within ±10%.
📉 Long-Term Price Trend Channel
Log-linear trend fitted to full price history. ±1.5σ bands. Green shaded zone = bottom 25% of historical range — historically attractive entry.
🏦 Comparable Valuation
| Company | Ticker | P/E | EV/EBITDA | P/FCF | Div Yield | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ExxonMobil | XOM | 13.8x | 7.6x | 12.5x | 3.3% | Larger super-major; scale premium |
| Shell | SHEL | 11.5x | 5.8x | 8.4x | 3.8% | European peer; ESG discount |
| TotalEnergies | TTE | 9.2x | 5.1x | 7.8x | 5.1% | European peer; transition leader |
| BP | BP | — | 3.5x | 4.1x | 5.5% | Deep discount; higher risk |
| CVX 5yr Avg | CVX | 16.0x | 9.0x | 11.0x | 3.8% | Own history: slight premium vs current |
💰 Dividend / Distribution Analysis
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Annual DPS | $6.840 |
| Current Yield | 3.65% |
| Consecutive Growth Years | 37 |
| 1-yr DPS CAGR | +4.9% |
| 3-yr DPS CAGR | +4.3% |
| 5-yr DPS CAGR | +5.2% |
| 10-yr DPS CAGR | +5.5% |
| Payout Ratio (DPS/EPS) | 103.0% ⚠️ |
| FCF Payout Ratio | 82.2% ⚠️ |
| Sustainability Verdict | Safe |
37-year dividend growth streak. GAAP payout >100% in 2025 due to depressed earnings, but FCF payout of 82% is manageable. Strong balance sheet (0.22× D/E) provides ample coverage. Dividend is secure even at $50 Brent.
🔮 Analyst Forecast Section
(a) EPS Consensus
| Year | Low / Actual | Avg | High | # Analysts | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $8.14 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2022 | $18.28 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2023 | $11.36 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2024 | $9.72 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2025 | $6.63 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2026 | $4.61 | $8.64 | $16.41 | 28 | Estimate |
| 2027 | $6.07 | $9.64 | $15.05 | 27 | Estimate |
(b) Revenue Consensus
| Year | Low / Actual | Avg | High | # Analysts | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $155.6B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2022 | $235.7B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2023 | $196.9B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2024 | $193.4B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2025 | $184.4B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2026 | $176.4B | $217.9B | $291.7B | 28 | Estimate |
| 2027 | $177.6B | $208.7B | $248.0B | 27 | Estimate |
(c) Individual Analyst Price Targets
| Analyst | Firm | Rating | PT | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alastair Syme | Citigroup | Strong Buy | $235 | +25.3% |
| Sam Margolin | Wells Fargo | Buy | $222 | +18.3% |
| Biraj Borkhataria | RBC Capital | Buy | $220 | +17.3% |
| Paul Cheng | Scotiabank | Hold | $187 | -0.3% |
| Lucas Herrmann | BNP Paribas | Buy | $174 | -7.2% |
💡 Investment Thesis
- Fortress balance sheet: Debt/equity of 0.22× is the lowest among oil majors — Chevron can weather a prolonged downturn without cutting the dividend or issuing equity.
- Permian low-cost advantage: Chevron's Permian position generates breakeven in the low-$40s — competitive even in a weak commodity environment.
- 37-year dividend growth streak: At 3.6% yield with 4-8% annual growth, Chevron is a reliable income compounder with the balance sheet to sustain it.
- Key risk — structural decline: Long-term oil demand faces structural headwinds from electrification and efficiency gains. Chevron's transition investments are modest vs. European peers.
👔 Management Quality & Culture
CEO: Not identified · Tenure: Since 2018 (~8 yrs)
Net Insider Buys (12m)
-2,083,772 shares
Incentive Alignment
⚠️ Moderate
Compensation: Equity-based compensation present
CEO Background & Track Record
History of Chevron CEOs
Demetrius G. Scofield served as the first CEO of Standard Oil Co. of California (later Chevron).
Demetrius G. Scofield served as the first CEO of Standard Oil Co. of California (later Chevron).
Chevron Leadership — Chevron
Mark A. Nelson*^ Vice Chairman Eimear P. Bonner*^ Chief Financial Officer T. Ryder Booth*^ Chief Technology and Engineering Officer Jeff B. Gustavson*^ President, New Energies R. Hewitt Pate*^ Chief Legal Officer Robert Clay Neff^ President
Mark A. Nelson*^ Vice Chairman Eimear P. Bonner*^ Chief Financial Officer T. Ryder Booth*^ Chief Technology and Engineering Officer Jeff B. Gustavson*^ President, New Energies R. Hewitt Pate*^ Chief Legal Officer Robert Clay Neff^ President
John Watson Named Chairman and CEO of Chevron Corporation |
In his current role, he oversees a broad portfolio of responsibilities, including strategic planning; business development; policy, government and public affairs; major capital projects support; procurement; and corporate compliance. ... Un
In his current role, he oversees a broad portfolio of responsibilities, including strategic planning; business development; policy, government and public affairs; major capital projects support; procurement; and corporate compliance. ... Un
Capital Allocation & Strategy
2025 Annual Report: Strategy & Performance
Access Chevron’s annual report to view financial outcomes, company highlights and strategic direction, plus download the full report.
Access Chevron’s annual report to view financial outcomes, company highlights and strategic direction, plus download the full report.
Chevron Announces 2025 Capex Budget & 4Q24 Interim Updates —
Chevron Corporation today announced an organic capital expenditure range of $14.5 to $15.5 billion for consolidated subsidiaries (capex) and an affiliate capital expenditure (affiliate capex) range of $1.7 to $2.0 billion for 2025
Chevron Corporation today announced an organic capital expenditure range of $14.5 to $15.5 billion for consolidated subsidiaries (capex) and an affiliate capital expenditure (affiliate capex) range of $1.7 to $2.0 billion for 2025
Employee Ratings
Overall Rating
3.7/5 ★★★★☆
Culture Signal
Positive
✅ Strengths
- good pay
- recommend
Employee Review Excerpts
Chevron Reviews (5,655): Pros & Cons of Working At Chevron |
Chevron has an employee rating of 3.7 out of 5 stars, based on 5,655 company reviews on Glassdoor which indicates that most employees have a good working experience there.
Chevron has an employee rating of 3.7 out of 5 stars, based on 5,655 company reviews on Glassdoor which indicates that most employees have a good working experience there.
Awesome place - Sales Chevron Employee Review
Chevron reviews · 5.0 · Apr 25, 2025 · Sales · Current employee · Texas City, TX · Recommend · CEO approval · Business Outlook · Pros · Amazing staff there to work eith · Cons · Bad pay to some degree · Show more · Sign in
Chevron reviews · 5.0 · Apr 25, 2025 · Sales · Current employee · Texas City, TX · Recommend · CEO approval · Business Outlook · Pros · Amazing staff there to work eith · Cons · Bad pay to some degree · Show more · Sign in
okay - Engineer Chevron Employee Review
Chevron reviews · 3.0 · Aug 22, 2025 · Engineer · Former employee · Houston, TX · Recommend · CEO approval · Business Outlook · Pros · stable, good pay and growth opportunity · Cons · way too political and red tape · Show m
Chevron reviews · 3.0 · Aug 22, 2025 · Engineer · Former employee · Houston, TX · Recommend · CEO approval · Business Outlook · Pros · stable, good pay and growth opportunity · Cons · way too political and red tape · Show m
Sources: Finnhub insider data · Brave Search (Glassdoor, Indeed, Comparably, news) · Earnings surprise data from analyst forecasts · Qualitative signals are directional only.
⚖️ DCF Verdict: Hold — Chevron Corp (CVX)
Current price: $187.60 | Analyst Avg PT: $191.80
$67
🔴 Bear
$171
📊 Base
$350
🚀 Bull
| Tier | Price | Action |
|---|---|---|
| Tier 1 — Starter | ≤$157 | Begin position |
| Tier 2 — Add | ≤$119 | Add on weakness |
| Tier 3 — Full | ≤$64 | Full allocation |
| Sell Alert | ≥$297 | Above fair value — consider trimming |
How tiers are set: Tier 1 = Base IV × 0.92 (8% discount to base case). Tier 2 = midpoint of Bear & Base IV (building on meaningful weakness). Tier 3 = Bear IV × 1.05 (just above worst-case — maximum margin of safety). Sell alert = Bull IV × 0.85 (15% discount to bull case — above fair value range).
Verdict: Hold. Chevron trades near fair value at 10.2× EV/EBITDA and 11.2× P/FCF. The balance sheet and dividend are rock-solid, but the stock is priced for moderate optimism. Wait for $165–170 to add; full position below $155. Becomes a trim above $220.
📂 Current Position Summary
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Shares Held | 9.583886319458408 |
| Average Cost Basis | $149.19 |
| Current Market Value | $1,798 |
| Unrealized P&L | $+368 (+25.7%) |
| Annual DPS | $6.840/yr |
| Annual Dividend Income | $66/yr |
| Current Yield (at price) | 3.65% |
| Yield on Cost | 4.58% |
| vs Target (~$200K) | $1,798 / $200,000 (1%) |
🔧 Model Notes & Calibration
| Assumption | Rationale / Notes |
|---|---|
| Model Selection | Used DCF (not DDM) because CVX is classified Stage 6 Decline. While dividend is solid, the lifecycle warrants a firm-level FCF valuation rather than equity cash flow discounting. |
| Oil/Energy Adjusted Quality | Sector-adjusted rubric used — debt/EBITDA of 1.1× is conservative for an oil major; FCF margin 9% is mid-cycle adequate. Generic ROIC threshold would misclassify CVX. |
| FCF Base | FY2025 FCF of $16.6B is down from $37.6B peak in 2022. Used as-is (conservative) — reflects current cycle positioning. Normalized FCF at $65 Brent is likely $20-25B. |
| WACC | 7.1% — low beta (0.52) and fortress balance sheet (90.4% equity weight) give CVX the lowest WACC among oil majors. |
| Lifecycle Override | Classifier said Stage 6 Decline — I concur for the legacy business but note CVX's balance sheet and Permian position make it a likely survivor. Price targets registered with caution flag. |
Bore Family Office • Analysis generated by Lurch • Not investment advice.
Report History
2026-04-25 — DCF ★ Latest Hold 2026-04-24 — DCF Hold 2026-04-22 — DCF Hold 2026-04-21 — DCF Reduce 2026-04-20 — DCF Reduce 2026-04-19 — DCF Accumulate 2026-04-18 — DCF Trim 2026-04-16 — DCF Reduce 2026-04-15 — DCF Trim 2026-04-13 — DCF Trim 2026-04-10 — DCF Reduce 2026-04-10 — DDM Trim 2026-04-09 — DCF Reduce 2026-04-09 — DDM Trim 2026-04-08 — DCF Reduce 2026-04-07 — DCF Reduce 2026-04-07 — DDM Trim 2026-03-06 — DCF Hold